GOLD : Gold will continue to increase to the highest levelGold prices are in a slight decline. The reason may be due to profit taking after increasing by more than 1% the previous day. The release of lower-than-expected US CPI and Retail Sales data for April has led to a change in expectations about the Fed's future interest rate path - an important factor contributing to the direction of gold prices. .
Lower-than-expected CPI data shows signs of cooling inflation, meaning the time for the Fed to lower interest rates may come sooner. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates from its September meeting. This number is much higher than the 65% level before the announcement, according to FXStreet editor Lallalit Srijandorn.
However, the outlook for the precious metal remains positive as demand from central banks - especially in emerging markets - continues to be strong, geopolitical risks remain present and trade concerns remain strong. Global trade is unstable due to political factors.
In fact, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand increased 3% to 1,238 tons in Q1, the strongest increase since 2016.
Forextrading
⭐️ XAU/USD : Gold’s Pivot Point: The Rise or Retreat (READ)Hello Traders , Upon reviewing the gold chart in the 4-hour timeframe, we observe that the price, following our analysis, managed to rise by 170 pips to $2387. Since the range of $2386 to $2397 is an important supply zone, the price reaction to it was negative, and currently, gold is trading around $2383. If the price stabilizes below this level, we can expect a decline to lower levels (Scenario One). Otherwise, if the price increases again and the candle closes above the $2397 level, we likely will see a return to the $2400 channel (Scenario Two). I hope you make the most of this analysis! Additionally, today, if I receive enough support from you, I will announce several tradeable levels (both for SELL and BUY).
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USDJPY: Bullish short term. Attention at the top of the Channel.USDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.858, MACD = 0.730, ADX = 52.633) and is rebounding after almost the second 1D MA50 test in 2 weeks. The pair is capitalizing on the bullish momentum of the 1 year Channel Up but this rebound could be the last before a correction, as the price is very close to the HH top trendline. Our goal is still that top (TP = 160.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURCAD: Bullish Accumulation & Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇦
After quite an extended bullish accumulation within an ascending triangle formation,
EURCAD bounced yesterday and violated its resistance.
It opens a potential for a further bullish continuation.
Next resistance will be 1.486
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XAUUSD : Gold has the ability to reach new heightsMore progress in deflation remains to be seen
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee welcomed the drop in inflation in April but said deflation progress needs to be firmer.
Speaking Wednesday after the CPI excluding food and energy prices fell for the first time in six months, Goolsbee expected more such good data to come before making a decision to cut interest rates.
“Inflation data improved quite a bit compared to what we expected, but still higher than where it was in the second half of last year,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the radio show Marketplace. “Because So, more progress still needs to be recorded in the deflation process.”
The Chicago Fed president, who is not voting on policy this year, called the deflationary path bumpy and pointed to housing inflation as a key indicator he is watching.
Fed officials have downgraded expectations for a first rate cut, stressing the need to keep rates high for longer amid persistent inflation.
DXY : The USD continues to weakenThe USD plummeted as expectations of the Fed lowering interest rates increased after US inflation data
The dollar slid to a multi-month low on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit a three-year low and retail sales were flat, raising expectations of lower interest rates in the economy. largest economy in the world.
US government bonds recovered after economic data along with the sell-off of Japanese bonds. The gap between US and Japanese 10-year government bond yields narrowed nearly 20bps this week.
The DXY index recorded its biggest decline of the year, falling 0.75% and penetrating below the MA 200 line. DXY is currently trading around its 5-week low at 104.17 at the beginning of the Asian session.
Gold prices increased due to coincident CPI dataOver the same period, CPI increased by 3.4%, matching forecasts. This is positive news for the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Cooling inflation will help the Fed soon make a decision to lower interest rates, to support the US economy, which is showing more signs of slowing down. Cooling inflation will also soothe the psychology of US investors and consumers.
The possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates at its September meeting increases.
Gold prices increased because tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East still show no signs of cooling down. Russia is attacking on many fronts in Ukraine and fierce fighting is occurring. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Iran recently said it would create a nuclear bomb if threatened by Israel.
With signals from cooling US commodity prices, it is likely that the USD will continue to sag and possibly weaken as the time until the September meeting gradually shortens.
Recently, many forecasts say that gold prices may weaken this summer, possibly in May and June when the Fed delays lowering interest rates. However, if inflation in the US continues to be controlled and the US economy shows signs of weakening, gold has the opportunity to increase its score following the weakening of the USD.
WTICO/USD Short and SOYBN/USD ShortWTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
SOYBN/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 2 touch 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EURUSD: Overbought on 1D presenting a sell opportunity.EURUSD is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.115, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 33.336) with the price approaching the top/ LH trendline of the long term Channel Down. It is already past the 0.618 Fibonacci level, where the last LH got rejected but the 1D RSI is right where the tops of December 27th 2023 and March 7th 2024 where formed. This is a solid low risk sell opportunity, aiming for the next LL on a 1.236 Fib extension (TP = 1.05550).
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EURUSDHello traders ,what do you think about EURUSD?
This currency pair has reached the ceiling of the channel and a resistance zone. It is expected that after a correction to the specified zone, it will grow at least to the specified level.
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Gold continues to increase in today's trading session Gold rebounded after ultimate night`s information and persisted to boom on this morning's buying and selling session
Gold weakened after US manufacturer charge information for April become released. (PPI) in April of americaA elevated in comparison to the preceding period
The Fed will retain to keep restrictive economic coverage till inflation declines
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now no longer signaling a charge hike is likewise high quality for XAU and will assist the treasured metallic benefit further.
Whether americaA CPI will increase better or decrease than expected, it's far a useful state of affairs for gold. Accordingly, if americaA CPI will increase rapidly, gold will sell its position as an inflation prevention tool. On the contrary, if CPI falls, expectancies of hobby charge cuts will boom, setting stress at the USD and reaping rewards gold.
XAU decreased slightly in today's trading sessionThe recovery of the global stock market is also considered a factor causing gold prices to "slip" in the last trading session of the week. Global stock markets were mostly higher with US stock indexes pointing towards a higher open as the day's trading session in New York began.
The gold market in China is also strongly affected by the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic. A recent report shows that gold holdings in China's exchange-traded funds (ETFs) only totaled 3.5 billion USD at the end of April 2022.
According to analysts, the gold market is in a "danger zone" as the price moves closer to 1,800 USD/ounce. This is solid support, but a break below could lead to more selling.
Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA Financial Services Company (USA), initially said that gold showed signs of stability, but investors were still worried about inflation data. Besides, the strengthening USD is affecting gold prices.
DXY : The USD will continue to weakenOn the morning of May 15, the State Bank (SBV) announced the central exchange rate USD/VND at 24,269 VND, an increase of 3 VND. The exchange rate range allowed for transactions at Commercial Banks ranges from 23,400 - 25,450 VND. The USD/VND exchange rate was also brought to the trading range of 23,400 - 25,450 VND by the SBV Exchange.
This morning's exchange rate increased slightly at commercial banks. Specifically, Vietcombank has a buying level of 25,152 and a selling level of 25,482, an increase of 3 dong in both buying and selling directions compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, the exchange rate on the free market increased more strongly. In Hanoi at 05:15, the exchange rate fluctuated around 25,768 - 25,848 VND, an increase of 10 VND on the buying side and an increase of 20 VND on the selling side compared to yesterday.
The DXY index yesterday almost lost the 105.00 mark after the PPI data was released. Currency pairs also fluctuated accordingly, even the USD/VND exchange rate in the forex market also decreased sharply. However, somehow miraculously, the listed exchange rate still increased slightly.
XAUUSD : Gold is pushing towards record territoryGold prices steady amid mixed US PPI data, investors ready for tonight's CPI data
Gold's rally continues after falling on Monday at $2,357, but has yet to surpass the recent high of $2,378, recorded on May 10. This could cause the XAU/ USD moves sideways within a certain price range. According to the RSI indicator, the current trend is beneficial for investors holding gold.
Therefore, the first level of resistance for XAU/USD will be the high of May 10, which is $2,378. If surpassed, the next level will be $2,400, followed immediately by the April 19 high of $2,417 and the historical peak of $2,431.
Conversely, if bears prevail and push the price below $2,359, it could lead to a decline to the May 9 low of $2,306, then to $2,300. Once crossed, the next stop will be the 50-day SMA at $2,249.
XAU is awaiting important inflation dataMany professionals accept as true with that withinside the close to future, the Fed is prepared to decrease hobby prices. Recent disasters in peace negotiations withinside the Gaza Strip are nonetheless helping gold charges.
Many crucial facts can be posted this week, along with April PPI and CPI of the US. These can be facts factors that traders want to pay unique interest to due to the fact they'll have a main effect at the Fed`s hobby charge choice and the related effect on gold charges
Gold charges stay above 2,three hundred as markets anticipate crucial US inflation facts
This week consists of the manufacturer fee index (PPI) and patron fee index (CPI). PPI is forecast to boom 0.3% month-over-month, as compared to a 0.2% boom withinside the March record. CPI is forecast to boom 0.4%, as compared to the March record which confirmed a 0.0% boom. 4%. The annual CPI in April is predicted to boom 3.6% as compared to the 3.8% boom withinside the March record.
Consumer fee index. Hotter-than-predicted inflation should boom the probability that the Fed will hold hobby prices excessive for longer..
XAU is waiting for data from today's newsTraders and investors are awaiting key US inflation data for April released this week including the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI). PPI is forecast to increase 0.3% month-over-month, compared to a 0.2% increase in the March report. CPI is forecast to increase 0.4%, compared to the March report which showed a 0.0% increase. 4%. The annual CPI in April is expected to increase 3.6% compared to the 3.8% increase in the March report.
Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, says he expects gold prices to eventually surpass last month's record high above $2,448 an ounce, but a breakout may not happen. until the US Federal Reserve (Fed) actually cuts interest rates.
Gold could be especially vulnerable this week as the market focuses on the Consumer Price Index report, Mr. Hayes said. Hotter-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer. Although inflation remains high, an increasingly sluggish US labor market and weaker economic activity will prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.
GBPUSD: Sell this 2nd 1D MA50 test.GBPUSD is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.00, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 28.566) and testing the 1D MA50 for the 2nd time since May 3rd. Last time it got rejected emphatically and being exactly on the LH trendline, there is very low risk in selling on the current market price. The target is a little over the S2 level (TP = 1.2220).
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