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FOMC

SPY OUTLOOK 06/05 - 06/09Last week, the debt ceiling lift was signed into law which saved the US from defaulting. All of our upside targets hit last week, and the market reacted favorably with a green week up +3.2%. With not much on the economic calendar, I doubt we move much this week, but expectations of a soft landing can keep bulls in control. Technical Analysis: This week AMEX:SPY broke out to the upside of the megaphone we were watching since April. We are at a critical point in the market as we tested the top of a macro trendline dating back from September 2022. Although I can see the market moving higher in the short term, I’d expect some corrective action in the coming weeks. Even if we head higher, we will need to build some levels of support and resistance if we do head higher. Bulls will want to hold price above the megaphone breakout. If price can continue above last week’s high 428.74, our next level above is 429.57, with not much resistance until 433. What is more likely this week is some sort of healthy pullback before we head higher. I can see SPY coming down to test the daily gap made on Friday (422.92-423.95). If this doesn’t hold, we have a golden pocket from 420-421 where we can look for buyers to step in. Bears will want to invalidate the golden pocket and control price action under last week’s point of control at 419. Upside Targets: 428.74 → 429.57→ 433.07 → 436.10 → 438.08 Extended: 441.21 Downside Targets: 425.14 → 423.95 → 422.92 → 421.02 → 419.00 Extended: 416.22
AMEX:SPY
by peterjames_6
SILVER - Where to next? BIRD EYE VIEW!SILVER - Where to next? An important few weeks ahead: FOMC minutes Wednesday, PMI's and on Nov 30th - Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to speak on the economic outlook and the U.S. labor market at Brookings. With all of this we are at key support areas of DXY - I see a lot of individuals very bullish precious metals, I am too. Although, keep in mind trade what you see, not what you think. Where will silver lead next? We are within the ranges of Lows: 18.100-18.500 & Highs: 22. A break to either direction...
FX:XAGUSD
by Trade_Journal
$QQQ Outlook 05/30 - 06/02The tech sector is on a tear. NASDAQ:NVDA earnings set the tone last week and the AI craze is on. NASDAQ:QQQ had a bullish week, closing up +3.53%, bringing it up +8.76% on the month. Strong earnings, job cuts, and developments in AI technology has sent the sector higher. Technical Analysis: The last two weeks saw NASDAQ:QQQ break out of the rising wedge we were watching. Last week’s high signaled a test of a bullish channel. This channel uses the same uptrend support line we’ve been watching since the beginning of March. We are looking to see if this continues higher, or if the channel resistance is respected. My general lean for this week is bullish, although after last week’s incredible run, I do expect a bit of a retrace before we head higher. A healthy pullback is due so we can continue to move up this channel. I would be bullish if price action can continue to hold above last week’s close of 348.40. Bear case if we can break below last week’s open at 336.25. I’d expect a bounce here as it is in the golden pocket (0.618 retrace would be 337.08), but if we cannot hold this level, we could target the gap to fill below down to 332.91 which would invalidate the golden pocket. Upside Targets: 348.40 → 349.25 → 350.72 → 352.46 → 354.43 Extended: 356.78 Downside Targets: 346.38 → 344.57 → 341.31 → 338.19 → 336.25 Extended: 334.35
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by peterjames_6
$SPY Outlook 05/30 - 06/02With a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling reached over the weekend, we now look to see how the markets react when it is voted on later this week. Technical Analysis: The megaphone pattern we’ve been watching all month is still in play. We also have the macro uptrend line that we have not tested since March. My general lean for this week is bullish. Bulls will want AMEX:SPY to hold above last week’s open at 418.64. Barring any additional news, I’m expecting us to fill the gap above to 420.77 - 421.22 when markets open on Tuesday. I do see a 15 minute Fair Value Gap around last week’s open at 418.64 where we could potentially form a support base before we head higher into the 423-425 range. Although I can see the market moving higher in the short term, I’d expect some corrective action in the coming weeks. Bear case if we fail to hold the 418.64 level, we could potentially retrace to the 0.618 fib at 414.04. Should we invalidate a golden pocket bounce, our next support zone would be the daily gap under the 50 SMA from 409.87- 407.27. Under this… megaphone plays out and we test the macro support trendline. Upside Targets: 420.77 → 421.22 → 421.97 → 422.82 → 423.54 Extended: 425.26 Downside Targets: 418.64 → 417.30 → 416.25 → 414.94 → 414.15 Extended: 408.87
AMEX:SPYLong
by peterjames_6
Does "News" Impact Price Behavior? 🐒We can Observe that After the 1st Quarter of the Year, January-March the price of Eurusd has increased. Now As we near the middle of the second quarter, I can't help but visualize a Breakout. Price is currently sitting at 1.102. So far price has respected the Weekly Level at 1.106. The High for the first quarter was 1.103. We have now spent quite a bit of time at these extreme prices. I can often observe price using News//Data Releases on Lower time frames as a boost. A Boost of momentum in the preceding direction. I can observe 3 Potential News//Data Releases causing and becoming a Catalyst to leave a Large Trading Range. 1. NFP 2. CPI 3. FOMC Interest Rates. Will FOMC provide the Volume? Do we have enough Liquidity? Or may price dip from here back to our 1.086 Weekly S/R Zone before increasing any further? My Bias is Bullish moving into FOMC. Safe Trading Everyone. Not Financial Advice. Educational Purposes Only.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
XAUUSD Weekly Forecast | 29th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The key takeaways of last week's FOMC meeting show that the FEDs agreed on the need for more rate hikes after May's meeting was 'less certain'. We will likely be seeing strength in the USD. We could see investors shift their money from GOLD to USD instead, weakening it. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 1948 Next support at 1904 Idea Price could head towards the next major key support level at 1904. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OlympusLab
Downside moment has come for US indexes?Hello Traders, In our previous posts,linked in the description, we've been tracking the last zig-zag of this primary wave (B) as it ascends. Our calculated completion targets fall within the yellow area, coinciding with the bullish descending broadening wedge targets, as well as the point where Y equals Z. This symmetry between the two most recent zig-zags in this corrective wave has informed our decision to set our longs at 13800 and initiate short positions at 13863, anticipating the advent of wave (C) and a potential move towards lower lows. But the price action and chart patterns integral to our proposed count are just pieces of the larger picture. Several other indicators also support the potential scenario we've described. Interestingly, over recent months, we've observed an unusual market behavior. The market has been ascending, despite a dominant narrative of impending recession and rate hikes—factors that typically instill bearish sentiment in retail traders. This resilience of the market is even more noteworthy when we consider its divergence from the Money Supply M2. Historically, the stock market has acted as an oscillator of the Money Supply M2. It's crucial that we view this resilience of the market as a potential strategy to mislead retail traders. When the narrative was bearish, the market not only held its ground but thrived, possibly catching many retail traders off-guard. Adding another layer to our analysis, let's consider the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y). It's currently forming a bullish flag pattern, a positive signal that could potentially lead to higher yields. If this pattern confirms, it would be consistent with lower lows on indexes In our upcoming posts, we'll explore these dynamics and their potential impact on market trends in the short to medium term. We'll also discuss what they mean for our trading positions. We keep in mind that FOMC today can be a good trigger for accelleration to the downside, but another wave up towards 14200 is still a concrete possibility. Stay tuned for more updates, and trade safely in this volatile environment. Bests GMR
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by GMR-Capital
Decoding the Structure of the Federal Reserve System 🏦 If you've ever wondered how the U.S. monetary system functions and who runs the show, keep reading. In this article, we will break down the structure of the Federal Reserve System and help you understand how it operates. 🏦 The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act and is an independent entity within the government. The Fed has a three-part structure, including the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 1️⃣ Board of Governors: The Board of Governors is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year non-renewable terms. One person is designated by the President as Chair and another as Vice-Chair. The Board's main function is to set monetary policy, supervise and regulate banking institutions, and maintain the stability of the financial system. 2️⃣Federal Reserve Banks: There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks located throughout the United States. Each Federal Reserve Bank serves a specific geographic district and is responsible for carrying out the policies set forth by the Board of Governors. The Federal Reserve Banks are overseen by a board of nine directors, six of whom are appointed by banks in the district, and three by the Board of Governors. In addition to overseeing the banking system, the Federal Reserve Banks also provide services to financial institutions and the U.S. Treasury. These services include processing and clearing checks, storing currency, and distributing new currency. 3️⃣Federal Open Market Committee: The FOMC is the most powerful body within the Federal Reserve System. It is responsible for setting monetary policy, specifically the target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The FOMC is made up of the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year to analyze economic data and determine appropriate policy decisions. Their decisions impact not only the banking system but also the overall economy. For example, if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates, it will become more expensive to borrow money, affecting everything from mortgages to credit card payments. Conclusion: The Federal Reserve System is a complex organization that plays a critical role in the U.S. economy. Its structure is designed to ensure checks and balances across its three branches so that no one entity has too much power. While the Board of Governors sets policy and oversees the entire system, the Federal Reserve Banks carry out those policies and provide essential services to the financial system. The FOMC, on the other hand, is responsible for setting monetary policy, affecting the interest rates that impact our daily lives. Understanding the Federal Reserve System is essential for anyone wanting to understand the U.S. economy. Knowing how the Fed operates can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances. With this knowledge, you can better navigate the ups and downs of the economy and protect your hard-earned money. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
XAUUSD Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The USD is expected to pause interest rates, causing investors to shift their money to Gold. Technical Confluences Resistance at 2001 Current support at 1981 Major support at 1960 Idea We could possibly see price retrace back up to retest the resistance at 2001. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
DXY Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health. The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 103.500 Next resistance at 105.000 Minor support at 102.765 Major support at 102.200 Idea With the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI expected to drop, it could cause the DXY to drop further towards the 102.700 minor support. If the FED chooses to pause or indicate pausing of interest rates, it can cause the DXY to drop even further towards the 102.200 major support level. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
Frothy TimesLast Wednesday, inflation prints (CPI) came in below expectations of a ‘hot’ print which would have likely indicated that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening rates. Cryptocurrency and equities markets reacted positively while bond yields dropped. These numbers are expected to persuade the Fed to lean more towards a "pause" stance for its next FOMC meeting in June. Meanwhile, markets are still concerned about the debt ceiling crisis as negotiations have not shown much progress as of yet. Despite the name, this crisis is actually more of a political issue as it hinges on a piece of must-pass legislation which would allow the federal government to increase its borrowing to fund its spending obligations. The Democrats currently have control of the Senate, while the Republicans have gained a majority in the House of Representatives. As such, they have used the debt ceiling as a political bargaining chip, pushing for cuts on what they deem as "irresponsible spending". Unless a compromise is reached, it’s likely that caution will echo throughout markets. Currently, the U.S. is forecast to hit its debt limit in early June. If the United States defaults on its debt for the first time in history, tens of billions of dollars in payments for Social Security benefits, payments to Medicaid providers, federal salaries, veterans' benefits, and other programs could potentially be at risk. As a result, investors are finding it challenging to decide on a trade amidst the uncertainty surrounding the debt default and resolution. Macroeconomic theory would predict that a resolution to increase the debt ceiling would reign in government spending, thus putting downward pressure on bond yields, thereby making the purchase of bonds at the current yields more attractive. Additionally, S&P500 earnings yields currently sit around 5.5% while risk-free 1-month U.S. Treasury Bills are paying the same. This makes holding stocks potentially less enticing to many investors and could serve as a rationale for shorting equities. From a technical perspective, since Bitcoin lost the $30K level, it has proven difficult to reclaim. The market has tested the level twice and has so far struggled to break it. In order for the next leg up to commence, Bitcoin will first need to reclaim $30K. In our previous market update, we noted the convergence of MA9 and MA50, signalling a potential crossover. Last Tuesday, that crossing finally occurred. When a fast moving average (MA9) crosses below a slower moving average (MA50), markets perceive it as a bearish signal. Another important indicator to take a look at is the MACD. Last week, it remained relatively neutral. Although the MACD line has been below its signal line, the spread between them has been quite small, represented by the short bars on the histogram. However, recently the two lines have begun to diverge. This is another bearish signal. The last time this happened, Bitcoin lost $30K and fell towards $27K. Although technical indicators aren’t always accurate at predicting market direction, most indicators are pointing towards an increase in bearish momentum across the crypto market in the coming days. Finally, over recent weeks, the market has seen a variety of meme coins rally upwards. During phases of cycles, ‘meme coin season’ has often served as an indicator of a local top. Back in 2021, shortly after Doge reached its all-time high, Bitcoin capitulated from $60,000 to around $30,000. With this 'silly season' firmly upon us, current market sentiment feels rather frothy.
by Coinrule
1
$NQ1! - Busy week ahead! CME_MINI:NQ1! - Busy week ahead! We've got a busy calendar ahead of us and remember it's first day of the month - May a Lot of US Data! 1. ISM 2. JOLTS 3. ADP 4. FOMC 5. NFP Now that's a busy week and I know for some, they will be stepping back and not trading during a hectic week ahead, but I do feel there will be plenty of opportunities. Now, banking sector is at the key spot light ahead of this week mentions of First Republic Bank will be acquired by JPMorgan after rescue efforts fail. It's not first time this year, we've heard a bank go under, and unfortunately that's part of the cycle as rates head higher, a lot of sectors get hurt, look at real estate and this is what I mentioned months prior - I well recommend researching more in depth. Keep in mind FED want a 2% target for inflation...Expectation is for the FOMC to lift rates by 25bps at its May meeting, now the real question is will they pause after this hike or carry on, whilst we got credit tightening... Now technically looking at NQ Highs: 13391 Lows: 12787 At the moment we've got Kangaroo action until a break to either side - If we are to break the highs, I expect next area of interest to be 13660 areas. However, we are to break the lows, I expect 12481 areas. NQ has held relatively well within the conditions we are in, interesting times ahead. Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Trade_Journal
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Overall, EURUSD continues to be a bullish case on the larger timeframe. There are good reasons to believe in a bull case due to the interest rate differential between EUR and USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently hovering around the previous swing high and bullish momentum has reduced to consolidation in price. Support marked out at 1.0755 where price could potentially retrace to. 2. On the daily timeframe of EURUSD, bullish pressure is waning and a deep retracement on EURUSD could be due soon. Idea Price can continue bullish to tap into the weekly high at 1.10922 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop With the volatility in place from last week's FOMC and NFP prints, the market has yet to stabilise and we could see volatility carried over from last week to the market. Technical Confluences 1. On the daily timeframe on XAUUSD, price has tapped onto the key resistance level at 2050 before rejecting. 2. An area of support at 1959 is crucial to look at amidst the high levels of liquidity existing above this support. Idea With plenty of liquidity near the support, price could potentially tap area at 1959 before heading up. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OlympusLab