EURUSD - Back to Back Bearish AB = CD Pattern It looks like a valid AB=CD Short Formation anyone else thinks it's a good idea to go short?
Fibonnacci
8/29/2016 WTI Oil Short - Fib levels and candle analysisHello everyone. Been a while since I traded again. I've been holding back since Brexit and trying to avoid trading with the US elections going on but started looking at charts again last week. Today I am entering short on WTI Crude Oil. I have entered at the current price of 46.94$ with a stop loss of 50$. Please use your own judgment if you trade in agreement for your entry and limits.
As shown we have a traditional candle pattern of an Evening Star within the last 5 days. On top of this formation we have what may be a double top while coming down from a 76.4 Fibonacci replacement and sitting on the support of the 61.8 level waiting to break under. Not only do we have both of these going on, there is also bearish divergence in Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillator, depending on your settings for them. My stochastic is set to be the same as Williams %R on default settings. I didn't mark it on my chart but you can also see a very large volume for the week on the day of the doji candle.
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Gold very long termXAUUSD
Very longterm chart
Trading wave 4, before reaching a new high (2284).
Wave 5 possible $6000, but not in our lifetime.
Fibo multiples for the new highs, maybe also apply for the lows
chart:
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
AUDUSDBouncing of the 141.4% Extension level on the H1, @weekly its targeting the 61.8% retracement.
This is yet again another possible trend continuation area from the weekly view, ill will be watching closely
for a possible inversed HH or an aggressive break of the previous HH and giving LL to find an good entry point. I will follow up this idea with posts. Im yet not in a trade, we were looking at the 50% the last time which did not held.
Closely monitoring the USDOLLAR as well, if it will show weakness on the technical side
#RunItUp!
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Good luck guys
AUDNZD symmetrical triangle with 5 hitsSymmetrical triangle has been forming on the AUDNZD pair for 3 months now.
5 strong hit points .
Look for a break to the upside at hit point 6 or a break to the downside at hit point 7 after hit 6.
Profit targets are clearly indicated by green lines and are based on previous structure. The top profit target is unlikely but very hopeful if we get a break to the upside.
USDZAR bearish cypher pattern enter nowBearish cypher to enter now.
Strong bearish divergence on the RSI.
Profit target is based on Fibonacci levels and is 15.44830 as an initial target and then 15.29297 as a second target.
Stop loss is based on previous structure, which isn't great for this trade.
EURUSD SHORT BIASHERE IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHY I CALL THIS PATTERN A STAIR CASE OR STAIRS, WHICH ENDS WITH A U SHAPE.
THE RATIOS ARE: 23.6-38% RETRACE BETWEEN A STRONG MOVE,
THEN A 76 % FIB EXPANSION CONTINUATION OF THE MOVE
WHICH THEN GOES INTO A 38% RETRACE.
AS ALL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, THERE ARE A BIT MORE MATHS INVOLVE BUT IT'S MOSTLY EXPERIMENTAL. THE TREND ANGLE FOR EXAMPLE IS A GREAT TOOL TO UTILIZE DURING ANALYSIS, IT ASSIST IN PREDICTION WHEN COMPARING TIME PERIOD AND PRICE.
HAPPY NEW YEAR, I WISH FOR EVERYONE A PROSPEROUS 2016!
EURUSD: TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, Big Move !Follow the Trend, Trend is your Friend. That's the setup on FX:EURUSD 1H bars. The market makes Higher High and Higher Low. The last correction move will be finished soon and it is expected it will be retraced on red box.
1. The price is getting close to structure low, where the most of the buyers orders are placed.
2. Support level at 1.0908 (structure low)
3. Fibonacci retracement 38.2%
4. Hidden Diverge, which is a continious pattern
5. The price is dropping today, so the best level for sellers to lock their profits and buyers to step in 1.0908 area.
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BAT PATTERN GBPJPY H4 BEARISH: VERY NICE RISK REWARD SITUATIONBat pattern Setup!!
Hello guys Errol here,
We are looking at a possible bearish bat pattern here.
We might also see a 3 Drives pattern if we get a completion at the top of the third leg which also lines up with previous structure.
We aslo have some Ratio congfluence at the D leg completion where we are looking to get short.
Very nice risk to reward situation right here.
Stops above X
TGT 1 0.382%
TGT2 0.618%
Best of luck out there!!!!
AUDUSD - POTENTIAL BULLISH REVERSAL COULD BE AT HAND.There are several interpretation on longer term prospect for AUDUSD as some analyst of major banks ( technical-analysis.forexlive.com ), attempt to label the chart and I assume they know what they are talking about.
However, I am not sure about the move from 2008 low to 2001 high labelled as 5 wave impulse and likewise suggesting that we are now in 5 wave decline from 2011 high, in so doing it is suggested that the initial decline of 2011 high to October 2011 swing low qualifies as wave 1. If correct then in lower time frame it should have minor 5 waves. Count how you wish, I can only see a zigzag rather than 5 waves.
In contrast I see the entire rally from 2008 -2011 high as WXY zigzag and retracement since 2011 high as abc zigzag with wave c as possible ending diagonal, with approx low to form around 0.70
If correct I anticipate strong rally of this low either to retest 2011 high or as a part of complex correction with 0.86 - 0.95 as upside target.
Summary if technicals:
1. Initial decline from 2011 high to October 2011 swing low is a zigzag hence part of correction rather than new impulsive 5 wave decline.
2. Retrace to Feb 2012 high was also a zigzag.
3. Since the Feb high we have leading diagonal for form wave 1 which in turn is part of larger falling wedge (ending diagonal of potentially 3-3-3-3-3 construction) which is nearing completion around 0.70.
4. 0.70 is a 78.6% retracement of rally from 2008 - 2011 high and has confluence with other fib projections show on the chart.
5. Rising trendline from 2008 low also come in as potential support in that proximity.
6. price zone where previous structure highs and lows were formed.
7. General sentiments among traders is very bearish.
8. Finally we might see hidden bullish divergence in price where RSI might form new lower low compared with 2008 and price possibly making higher low.
9. Invalidation level strong close below 0.70
Incidentally, the above anticipated low seems to make sense when compared with Gold which has strong positive correlation with AUDUSD and is also forming its potentially ending diagonal to complete its correction since 2011 high.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
USD/CAD BREAKS DAILY RANGE - POTENTIAL LOW RISK TRADEA DAILY CLOSE ABOVE RANGE RESISTANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FURTHER UPSIDE, A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF LONG TERM RANGE EXPOSES 1.2520's
THE 150 DAY MA THAT WAS PREVIOUS RESISTANCE ON 4H CHART HAS BEEN BROKEN, A POTENTIAL MA CROSSOVER TO THE UPSIDE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER - ADDING TO FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL
A RETEST OF PREVIOUS RESISTANCE TURNED SUPPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, A HOLD OF THIS LEVEL WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT - LITTLE RESISTANCE LIES AHEAD OF THE DOLLAR AND FOLLOWS THE LONG TERM BULL TREND OF THE PAIR
Potential Bat Pattern Completion on EURAUDPotential bat pattern completion at the 1.618 level as well as previous resistance. We are also in a descending channel and approaching resistance. When price reaches the 1.49000 area, hopefully we see some confirmation; maybe a doji followed by a lower close, or and bearish engulfing candle.
I've gained some confluence by using the Fibonacci retracement tool, swing high to swing low from point A and we the 1.49000 level match up with the 0.764 fibonacci level.
EUR/JPY short target in sight - close of 4H candle criticalUPDATE FROM YESTERDAYS TRADE:
After the sell off this morning EUR/JPY is re testing its 4h trend line which came into play yesterday, fresh lows of 133.90 but failure to close at these levels show potential further downside to my target of 133.50.
RSI is still holding its downwards trend, plus Ichimoku shows that we've had a cloud crossover as well as a TK crossover - both of which are pointing to further downside. Saying that I am skeptical about this signal as the Chickou-span still stays within price as well as being within the previous cloud (giving me the impression that price could potentially hold in this area), a clear close below the 4h trend line and a continuation of RSI/MACD showing further downside will encourage me that my target is still within range.
A break into oversold territory will add further momentum to the downwards move, the close of this latest 4h candle will be critical again.
CADJPY - POTENTIAL SHORT ENTRY - COULD BECOME LONG TERM TRADEMost of the other YEN pairs have recently declined strongly from earlier in the year which in varying degree are being retraced with some possibly still in progress and others might have just completed.
CADJPY - appears to be such pair that might have completed the retracement and could be in very early stage of resumption of the down trend and potentially offer very good short entry that could turn into significant long term short and possibly very strong dynamic as it could be wave C decline from Dec 2015 high
Here is the Technical summary
(A) From Monthly chart (see chart below) we note that:
1. It topped in Dec 2017 at 125 area we had noticeable sell of creating a low in Jan 2009 at 68.5 in a zigzag decline.
2. It has been retracing since and in Dec 2014 completed 66.67% (2/3rd) which is a Gann retracement level.
3. Hit the resistance at median line of the rising pitchfork.
4. Then made initial drop again that has been retraced to just over 61.8%.
(B) In addition to Monthly we note the following from Daily chart:
1. The retracement of the Feb low at 91.70 area has been a zigzag and has retrace 61.8% of the prior decline.
2. second leg of the zigzag could be potential rising wedge which would suggest move the upside is complete or very close to completion
2. Clear price divergence with both RSI and MACD which has bearish cross over.
This setup could potential offer very profitable trade with stop just above the recent high and entry could be located using 4Hr time frame or say break below 98 as conservative entry.
Downside targets could be:
Target 1 = 85 (previous resistance that could become potential support)
Target 2 = 68 (Previous structure low of Dec 2009)
Target 3 = 52 to 50 being 127.2% extension of the move from 125.40 to 68.32
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom).
Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves.
I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does.
Good luck in the markets today traders!
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