DAX has one more drop to make before the RSI signals a buyDAX is inside a Megaphone pattern but the recent Channel Down of the past 2 weeks is eyeing a repeat break downwards as the December Megaphone did on the 1day MA50. The latter is waiting now inside Support A.
The strongest buy signal will be given when the 1day RSI hits the bottom of its 3 month Rectangle at 41.00. Buy and target the previous High at 15650.
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FDAX1!
DAX One last push lower for a bottom.DAX has had the strongest 1D bearish candle today since December 15 2022. That was the candle that accelerated the correction from the Higher High Zone (red zone) of the long-term Channel Up to the Buy Zone (green zone). With the Channel Up pattern starting on the October 03 2022 market bottom and remaining valid up to now, this Buy Zone has been the most optimal long entry of the past four months.
We look at two indicators for buying, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D RSI hitting the bottom of its Rectangle pattern and entering the Accumulation Mode. A -6.50% correction doesn't have to necessarily be completed as in late December. Our long-term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level, which an early projection giving us a 16350 Target.
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DAX respecting the 4hour MA200DAX is staging a rebound coming close to the 4hour MA50 yesterday (has been untouched since January 4th). This is the normal technical reaction we expected on such an important Support Cluster (as the dotted line from the October 2nd bottom was also there) and was a short-term buy.
Maintain a tight SL though as a cross under it renders the price extremely bearish on the medium term that will target the 1day MA50.
A -6.60% repeat of December 14th - 16th gives a 14610 estimate. 4hour RSI still far from the buy opportunity when being oversold.
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DAX giving two excellent tradesDAX is inside a long term Channel Up pattern.
The price volatility in 2023 can be seen as a mini Rising Wedge on a Rising Support.
A similar Wedge was at the start of the Channel Up. When it broke, the MA50 1D got hit.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the Rising Support and Fibonacci 0.5
2. Buy on the MA50 1D if the Rising Support breaks.
Targets:
1. 15600 (under Resistance).
2. 16200 (top of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI 1D is imitating November/ December. Right now it is on the December Support. Use it accordingly.
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DAX The great February scalpNice illustration of DAX's sideways trading since the start of February. The Fibonacci levels help at finding the low risk/ high reward trades. And those are to sell on Fibonacci 0.786 and buy on Fibonacci 0.236. The RSI is on a similar range. Do this enough times to grow your profit until the pattern breaks.
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DAX May break lower from this pointDAX is trading on a Bullish Megaphone inside a five month Rising Wedge. The 1D time frame is in green (RSI = 60.102, MACD = 197.500, ADX = 27.090) but the 1D RSI has been sideways at best (if now on LH) for as long as the Bullish Megaphone trades, which is a bearish divergence. This is similar to the RSI formatio of the last Wedge High on Dec 13th after which a correction to the 1D MA50 took place.
Our plan is to take a tight long at 15,180 and if the price crosses below the Rising Wedge, enter it on the 1D MA50. In both cases we target 16,000.
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DAX: Rising inside Channel Up. Sell when RSI overbought.DAX is trading inside a Channel Up on bullish technicals both for 4H (RSI = 58.830 , MACD = 35.400, ADX = 33.092) and 1D (RSI = 65.538, MACD = 212.600, ADX = 27.945). 1D is stronger as its pattern is a Bullish Megaphone for the past 1 month. Basically we are now expanding on the breakout signal given on Monday as shown below.
The Channel Up rises on every bullish leg by +1.80%, thus we are long (TP = 15,690). We will not short its top but rather wait for the more clear signal of the 4H RSI getting overbought above 70.000, which has happened all of its three times with the price hitting the top of the Bullish Megaphone. Then we will go short, aiming at the dashed line (TP = 15,600) which was hit every time the Megaphone printed a Higher High.
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DAX Megaphone trading with clear breakouts to takeDAX trading pattern for the past 30 days has been a Bullish Megaphone. Throughout this whole pattern, the 4H RSI is having a clear Support to buy and a clear Resistance to sell. With 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 52.897, MACD = -5.800, ADX = 26.094) we have no option but to use breakout trading to limit the risk.
The current pattern appears to be following the one that started the Megaphone. As such, if the price breaks over the 0.618 Fibonacci we will buy and target the market top (TP = 15,640). If the price breaks under today's Low, we will sell and target the bottom of the Megaphone (TP = 15,125).
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FDAX UpdateI told you guys yesterday that they would sell off the entire CPI pump and dump, and they did causing futures to go red. You can see the bounce, but there's also more room to the downside.
Could just be a whipsaw morning. No idea which way it goes Monday.
FDAX UpdateFDAX RSI hit overbought with RSI divergence. They did the pump and dump on CPI numbers, 0.5% m/m inflation is NOT good news.
MFI oversold on US indices, so expecting a whipsaw day, I expect Europe to go down tomorrow, so I don't recommend holding a long position overnight. Every time there's a divergence in indicators between Europe and US, we get a whipsaw so watch out.
DAX on a thin thread eyeing the 1D MA50DAX is rebounding after holding the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and remains overbought on daily. The similarities with the November - December fractal evident and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) untested since January 03, we expect a sharp short-term correction to it, if the 4H MA50 breaks again. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 02 market bottom so our perspective is to take advantage of such short-term pull-backs and buy for the long-term.
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FDAX UpdateIndicators are neutral but trending up. I guess this afternoon rally is an attempt to set up for a pump and dump tomorrow. No reason to rally on Powell, TLT is red and bond yields are up for basically every time frame.
The algos still need to make their money, I guess. My assumption was whipsaw until CPI next week anyways.
FDAX UpdateMFI overbought heading into next week. Possible gap down Monday for the US market.
Don't really recommend holding a long position over the weekend in this whacked up market anyways, lol.
Powell speaks Tues premarket, no idea if he pumps or tanks the market. Stupid people are hard to predict.
FDAX Bull Flag?If the other half of dumb (Powell) and dumber (ECB) does the same thing tomorrow morning then we're looking at new ATH for FDAX. It'll be tough to short anything for a while.
Pay attention to what FDAX does premarket because you know they dictate the morning gaps, though probably not tomorrow due to META earnings.
DAX: Sell signal short term but bullish reversal if HH break.DAX turned overbought on the 1D time frame (RSI = 72.776, MACD = 187.300, ADX = 43.679) as investor euphoria spread across the stock markets on a dovish Powell, and the current 4H candle broke above the short term Channel Up. If it closes back inside the Channel Up, we will regard this a sell signal aiming at a -2.30% decline (TP = 15,100).
On the contrary, if DAX breaks above the long-term HH trend line first, we will buy and aim at the All Time High (TP = 16,300) as a repeat of the January 2nd - 18th +10.30% rally will be more probable.
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DAX This Resistance makes all the differenceThe German stock index DAX broke today (and so far stays ahead of the Fed) above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). On our last analysis two weeks ago, we pointed out that a Channel Up similar to November's would form and its break-out will deliver the next move:
As you see, the price traded exactly within that short-term Channel Up and delivered excellent scalping opportunities to us. Right now it is still intact and we are still scalping, only willing to commit to the direction on the next break-out.
A break below it should be enough to target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as it happened on December 28 and then rebound for another medium-term bullish leg. If the Double Top Resistance breaks first, we will go long regardless, targeting the top of February's Resistance Zone (15730). Further break will extend our selling to the 16300 All Time High.
On the downside, if the price closes below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50, we will buy again at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up (blue) near the 13900 Support (December 16 Low).
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FDAX UpdateFDAX has just been whipsawing lately, no indication of gap direction for tomorrow.
HSI hit oversold on my 3 hr though so the Asians probably follow through on this pump.
FDAX UpdateIndicators neutral but trending up.
Not really sure about gap direction for tomorrow, but US market appears to be melting up
FDAX UpdateES1! RSI bounced off the oversold condition, but FDAX is not oversold yet. Good chance that it goes down to the old support line before bouncing.
Good chance that tomorrow winds up being a whipsaw day if it plays out like the way I expect it to.
DAX Futures ( FDAX1! ), Daily Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: DAX Futures ( FDAX1! ), Daily Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 16274
Pivot: 13943
Support: 11829
Preferred case: Looking at the Daily chart, my overall bias for FDAX1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 16274, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 13943, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
DAX Pull-back to 4H MA200 likelyThe German stock index (DAX) is showing signs of exhaustion of the 2023 rally, following our strong buy signal last week. The 4H RSI hit and got rejected on the 84.600 Resistance level, which is where a Channel Up started on November 11 2022. The Channel Up made one last High before it broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and started a correction (short-term) that hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, we believe it is worth to start building up sell positions for a medium-term pull-back to the 4H MA200. Keep in mind that the strongest long-term buy is when the 1D RSI approaches its oversold level of 30.000. That could happen, if DAX closes a 1D candle below the 4H MA200, near the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in early October.
The medium-term target is the 15500 - 15700 Resistance Zone of February and the long-term the All Time High of 16300.
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FDAX UpdateOverbought on RSI with MFI divergence. Also overbought on daily for both.
US market appears to be in a melt up but this scares me. Europe dictates gap direction, might be wise to day trade and buy the morning dips. Not really sure. Hard for me to hold anything overnight when FDAX is overbought
DAX 4 hour = as i predict in low dax reach 15000i close my buys now and looking for sell now
ALERT = daily chart TECHNICAL SAY DAX CAN GO TO 19000 IN 2023 SO BE CAREFUL FROM SELL
above green arrow after pinbar apear on 1h or 4h or daily chart we must buy and hold it 10-20 day
if you have old sell against my analyse and advice you must hedge them near 148000
good luck
ON DAX AC INDICATOR 4HOUR IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT SO MONITOR IT
