Fairvaluegap
matic bull flag + H&Smatic broke the bull flag after a massive run from the neckline of the head and shoulders if we clear this resistance here we can easily see 1.17
Formation of clean bullish Wolfe Waves on BitcoinBullish Wolfe Waves appear on Bitcoin's 1 hour chart. This could be an indicator for short term reversal. Point 5 having a relative increase in trading volume makes me more confident in this setup.
I would be using the 1-hour Fair Value Gaps / Imbalances as areas to take some profits with my last target being the local high marked with a green line. Golden pocket doesn't look that significant as it was visited with a reaction prior but we might see another retracement there or from an area close below it if we decided to dive a bit deeper with point 5.
Bear in mind that FOMC is really close (pun intended!) and an interest hike might mess things up for those longing.
Trade safe.
Continuation or sell off? US30 - Higher timeframe outlook:
Price coming into weekly downtrend supply along with filling a nice imbalance, good potential zone for a reversal, however price could continue bullish all the way towards the D point of the crab filling these imbalances before closing back below the weekly structure, (As daily and 4H are both bullish).
If we fail to break the 1H/4H lows i'm going to look for buys towards that D point as Crypto/stocks have been super bullish this week too, and the rally could continue, however if we start failing highs/breaking structure i'll look for sells, will keep an eye on structure and market sentiment!
This crab is quite probable though, one of my favorite harmonics to trade for reliability especially the C/D leg for direction, but if this pattern completes without any major pullbacks it will be a more or less guaranteed big swing back down, so 100% get alarms on that D point zone! (Probably for next week if it completes so no rush there!)
Let me know your thoughts!
* Disclaimer **
These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
Gold 1DGold has recently touched an imp 1680 level.All the downside liquidity hunted.Considering its bearish trend , it is retracing back to trendline.
I have marked Fair value Gap + Bearish order block which coincide with trendline thus making it High probability Bullish move upto 1800.Furthermore Dollar Index sliding lower increases probability of my setup.
TP level - 1800
#Eth PullBack - Two Options that could Happen according to SMTSMT is Smart Money Theory - Please see my previous published posts for the definition.
We have the price coming back down to fill the 4 hour fair value gap void (1315-1288). If it happens to get below that The Second option would be the Fair Value gap below that (1182-1148). It could reach higher before it falls back to these areas. But price always seeks imbalances and liquidity.
Good Luck and Happy Trading
nasdaq daily perspectivehellow fellow traders. hope you guys are having a splendid journey thus far. for those of you who were eager to see new ideas from me, i apologise for the wait, i was busy with my private students, however im back for this 3rd qauter, if you want to know more about my course leave a comment below. so far as we all know i have been 90% bearish on nas for the swing and it is delivering perfect down movement. this week has 3 possibilities in my perspective. we could see price continue to give us lower prices or a retest of the daily/weekly orderblock, if price decides to break the daily order block then we can expect a deeper retracement into the weekly swing high.
$XMR - Short the week - It should bounce back around $105 *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
As XMR just finished creating the Break of Structure on the low side and came up short of breaking the structure on the high side, it appears that this was just a runned attempt at a bearish order block to be rejected back down into the last 4 hour fair value gap area. I marked the weekly consequential encroachment (Half of the weekly FVG, $121-122) and entered short there....As it's rejected it starts to head toward the bottom of the 4 hour FVG which is also a confluence at the 79-80% which is where most rebounds happen. and that number is 104-105 as an opening. On this one I could go either way but the earlier I enterered the less of % wager I would press and low leverage. The later the stage it gets the later you enter the more you can wager and add leverage.
And taking from the smart money playbook the earlier and sharper the price rises during the week , the more it will fall as the week goes on. Low possibly being on Friday or Saturday, looking for it to get around 105 by then.
If you watch the analysis week by week, It's an obvious pattern.
WEEK 1:
WEEK 2:
WEEK 3:
Current Week:
Good luck and happy trading.
What is FVG and why is it important?FVG = FAIR VALUE GAP
An area that offers price inefficiencies
Simply put, when there are more sellers than buyers it sometimes causes a void in the price action that we call it FVG or Fair Value Gap.
You can simply identify these areas on the chart just by finding deserted candles that have no trading history around them.
These value gaps are like errors in the market, price always tends to back to those areas and fill the gap with some more trades.
So if you see a sell-off/bullish impulse on the market, try to find The FVG and mark it as the potential target for the price to jump back there whenever the trend starts to shift.
leave a like or comment if you find this information useful ;)
S&P500 Trading missedEven missed, we can learn that the price action trading are consistent and the theory and model behind the Fair Value gap are real indicating the algorithm are consistent with Time and Price. More backtesting and practice would again dictate the anticipation better. Have a good weekend all and Happy Hunting!!
$BTC - Run May Have Been Short Lived - FVG's Below To FilL *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
TLDR;
Entry: 32,100
Stop Loss: 33,080
Take Profit: 28,000
After placing a Fib on the Current Wave, It became clear that we may be headed lower.... again. My Mentorship taught me to think of weekly profiles and how weekly candles form. The rush up just seemed like a wick for the week. Then I pulled the fib and noticed that the Discount price was at the exact line for the large Fair Value Gap (Imbalance) below. Additionally, I went to Barchart.com and looked at the Commitment of Traders report to find that Commercial traderds have reported additional net shorts than previously recorded. That was my first tip that Bitc could be going down as of Yesterday. I still Have my Analysis that BTC will get to 21,400. But for now, let's take baby steps and look to se if 28,000 first.
EURAUD - Support Trap 🐻This pair is creating support just above the demand and fair value gap.
I have no interest in trading the support or the demand just below it.
My main focus is locating longs within the gap or at the lowest demand.
We will have to wait a while for this to play out but the patience will pay.
$XMR - Price entered Bullish Breaker - Will Act as support *SMT* My Last XMR Signal did not go as well. However, I believe I found where I went wrong and will be able to correct it with this signal.
*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
So we have a long term Low High Lower-Lower formation in the upward movement of the price action of the chart. The high candle is the the Breaker. This is part of Smart money theory that's hard to explain without giving a video. But the price at this point should not get lower than the last up candle between 170 and 175. My entrance was 175.50. Stop loss is 169 and aiming bullish for the inverse ofr the 62% around 194.50. Then it might return lower, I'm not sure. But I think this Breaker Will hold and cause a short bullish run at least.
Closer up of the the chart
After it completes the run, The I have a feeling it will have another decent fall into the imbalance belowe the currrent support as seen pictured here:
Lastly, if the price stays near where it is, it is in confluence with the exit of the trade as there is a bearish order block right at the price near 194-195
As for now. I'll be on top of this trade and keep it updated as much as I can. I'm only trading 3 cryptos right now, BTC,ETH, and XMR. We'll see if I'm right this time.
SKILLING:XMRUSD
GATEIO:XMRUSDT