EURUSD Aiming at its 4H MA50. Still bullish.We are expanding our EURUSD outlook with some additional elements, after last week's trade was perfectly executed:
As you see, the price first pulled-back, hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and rose back to the top of the green Channel Up again, fulfilling our target.
This time, we are adding a short-term Channel Up (blue) that is again aiming for the 4H MA50. That will be another solid short-term buy opportunity, targeting the top of the Channel Up. Below the bottom of the blue Channel, we expect further selling towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 06.
As long as the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) holds, EURUSD remains a medium-term buy opportunity, eventually aiming at Resistance 3 = 1.09400 which is a triple top (April 07, 11 and 21 2022 Highs). A break below the 1D MA50, restore the bearish trend, and we will target the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD - THE BIG SHORT Eurusd - H4 - This pair went on a liquidity and stop hunt since the start of this year breaking monthly key levels. Now price has reversed on H4 and same time dollar index still holding its monthly demand zone so I'm expecting a complete reversal on Eurusd price action to heavy bearish from here on.. long term targets 0.90- 0.8500
EURUSD Pull-back more likely than everTime to call a short-term top on the EURUSD pair, as following our last week's idea, the price hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that has been trading is since the November 15 High:
This is actually a Double Top on the Higher Highs of the Channel Up, similar to that of mid-December. The target of the rejection was the bottom of the Channel, below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now we have the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) to consider as the short-term Support, where the price is very likely to go along with the 4H RSI Buy Zone 1.
If that breaks, we will extend selling all the way to the bottom of the Channel Up and only buy when the RSI hits 30.000 or the price hits the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). In both cases, the medium-term Buy Target is the 1.09400 Resistance 3 (formed by the April 07, 11 and 21 Highs).
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EURUSD Reached short-term Target. Plan ahead.The 4H oversold buy signal worked well on last week's analysis and EURUSD is now about to test the 1.07150 (short-term) Resistance and target no1:
Now we shift our attention on the more medium-term again as it is best to trade again on pull-backs and break-out levels. A closing above 1.07150 targets the 1.07925 Resistance (2) where another 1D closing would target 1.09400 (April 07, 11 and 21 Highs).
Until then, it is best to enter a buy again at the bottom of this Channel Up (green), where the price can potentially make the first contact with the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) since November 04.
On the other hand, this bullish trend shifts only if the price breaks below the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), targeting the Sptember 28 Higher Lows. Notice also the Lower Highs trend-line on the 1D RSI, which offers sold sell entries.
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EURUSD Correction not over. 1D MA50 on sight at least.The EURUSD pair closed yesterday below its 4H MA50 (red trend-line) and is practically confirming the bearish short-term trend. Only a week after the 1D Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above MA200), the price is now eyeing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be the first since November 04 2022.
A similar structure following a 1D Golden Cross was last seen on June 2020, when the pair was recovering from the COVID crash. On that sequence, the 1D RSI was again on Higher Lows and the price was pulling-back after hitting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. However it didn't break the 4H MA50, but did complete the pull-back on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
On the current pattern, the 1.382 Fib as on 1.03050, exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) currently is. A correction of this magnitude would put EURUSD even below the 1D MA50. That is why the best buy confirmation would be after a Higher Low on the 1D time-frame, but on average, buying on the 1D MA50 seems solid from a risk management perspective.
In any case, the pair remains bullish long-term, targeting the 3.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1200.
We got the exact bottom and all upper break-outs on our September 26 2022 analysis. Always keep a long-term perspective and profit from the big trend and reversals as we on Tradingshot do:
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EURUSD is set to rise!EURUSD has formed a strong bullish price action on the lower timeframe after grabbing liquidity from the weekly doji/liquidity zone. From multiple timeframe perspective, All four timeframes, monthly, weekly, daily and 4h is aligning with bullish price action. Upon closing of this candle, a buy trade is high probable.
EURUSD Hit 4H MA200, 1st time in 2 months. Two buy entries.The EURUSD pair is having a strong bearish session today, dropping as low as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at the moment, for the first time in 2 months (since November 04). This hit the exact bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (green) that started after the November 15th High.
In combination with the 4H RSI breaking its oversold barrier (30.000) for the first time since November 03, the current level represents a strong buy opportunity on a 1-month/ medium-term basis and we are targeting first the 1.07150 December 30 High and the 1.07925 May 30 High in extension.
With EURUSD already deep into a 1D Golden Cross, we see the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) as the long-term Support and 2nd buy entry, in case the price closes a daily candle below the 4H MA200. This pattern is invalidated only by a 1W candle close below the 1D MA50, in which case the September 28 Higher Lows trend-line will be targeted.
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EURUSD Ranged short-term, bullish long-termThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for 1.5 month (since the November 15 High). That was a pattern we spotted early on and helped at buying low and selling high.
In the past two weeks however, the price has been trading sideways within a 1.0670 - 1.05720 range, using the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Pivot. As long as it holds this range, continue to scalp it and maximize the short-term profits.
A break below, targets the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, which will be a buy opportunity. That, along with a break above the range, would target the 1.07925 Resistance (May 30 High), which has been for months, our long-term target.
A closing below the 4H MA200 though (daily), will be a sell opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which is the long-term Support for EURUSD.
Notice that we are a day or two before the 1D MA50 crosses above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, which we covered in previous ideas. It will be the first 1D Golden Cross since June 26 2020.
Finally notice how the 1D MACD is currently bearish (marginally), favoring a short-term pull-back.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week The ECB hiked interest rates on Thursday, following the lead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and pointed to more tightening to come as increased fears of a potential global recession linger. In this video, we looked at the chart from a technical standpoint and we noticed that resumed selling pressure below the $1.07000 level since the beginning of this month could trigger a sell-off below the $1.06000 level in the coming week(s). However, we will not ignore the possibilities of a bullish momentum if buy pressure accumulates above the $1.06000 level to respect the bullish trendline.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Emerging 1D Golden Cross but price can pull-back firstThe EURUSD pair is close to forming a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame which is the pattern where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is technically bullish but it doesn't mean that the price can't pull-back especially following the very aggressive rally it has been on since late September.
In fact, the last two 1D Golden Crosses had the price pull-back on overbought 1D RSI. Though the 1D MA50 wasn't hit before the rally was well underway above the 1.5 Fibonacci, the price did test either the 1D MA200 or the 4H MA50 (thin grey trend-line) prior to the Golden Cross.
Again, this doesn't change the long-term trend which has turned bullish, but the pull-back will represent a much needed technical retrace (also based on profit taking) to its fair buy level.
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EURUSD Above its 1WMA50 after 18months! Confirmed longterm rallyThe EURUSD pair broke last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and this week above the Lower Highs trend-line from the May 24 2021 market High. Last time the price was above the 1W MA50 was 18 months ago (on the week of June 21 2021!) and that alone constitutes a very strong buy signal for the long-term.
The previous two times that we saw the combination of 1W MA50 and Lower Highs of a downtrend break-out was on May 25 2020 and May 08 2017. In both historic cases, this break-out combination confirmed the end of the previous downtrend and the start of a new (roughly 2 year) Bull Phase. In both sequences, the rise reached as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, counting from the last Lower High prior to the Lower High break-out. That new 2.0 Fib is now a little over 1.2000 and technically that should be the target of a Bull Phase that can last for at least another year.
Technically we shouldn't see a major technical pull-back before the price breaks above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). In the previous two phases this is displayed by the red ellipse and dropped the price at least -3%. The end of the Bull Phase and price peak was made after the 1W RSI made a Lower Highs Double Top.
Long-term investors can take this 1W MA50/ Lower Highs break-out opportunity to buy the dips in 2023 and profit off of this pattern.
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EURUSD on a tight range waiting for the CPI/ Fed break-out!The EURUSD pair has been within a narrow Triangle range since November 30 after breaking above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which held it as Support while establishing 1.0600 as its Resistance.
It appears that it is waiting for Tuesday's U.S. CPI and Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision before making a move. That should be the break-out that we should trade and from a first look, below the 4H MA50, expect a fall to the bottom of the Channel Up, while above the 1.06135 (June 27 High) Resistance, a bullish break-out to the 1.07925 (May 30 High) Resistance and the top of the Channel Up.
If selling gets escalated, then we are willing to sell only after a candle close below the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and target the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which constitutes the most optimal long-term buy entry.
Notice also how the 4H RSI is also about to break out of its Triangle pattern that has been trading in since November 03.
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EURUSD Channel Up aims at the higher Resistances.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 15 High. The price bounced today on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which is encouraging for the upside but the bottom of the Channel is around 1.03650.
A bounce there aims at the 1.06135 Resistance (1) and further break can make a Higher High near the 1.07925 Resistance (2). A break below the Channel, has high probabilities of testing the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) with the Support being lower on the September 28 Higher Lows trend-line.
On the 4H time-frame the strongest buy signal is when the RSI enters 38.00 - 30.00.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsThe prospect of the Federal Reserve moderating the pace of its policy tightening appear to weigh in on the U.S. currency as price action broke out of the $1.0000 mark a couple of weeks ago. However, sellers appear to be stalling all buying attempts as the $1.04500 level became a strong resistance area for sellers in the last two weeks hereby limiting all bullish attempts around this zone. In this video, I have explained what to look out for in the new week for both buying and selling opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Extremely bullish targeting 1.0600 and 1.0700.The EURUSD pair is having a strong rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The very same rebound we last saw on November 10 and October 21 during this 2-month uptrend. Common characteristic was that the 4H RSI was where the green arrows show. This is an almost perfect symmetry on this rising pattern.
Those two previous rallies rose by at least +4.00%. The natural technical targets of this rise are the 1.06135 Resistance (1) and the 1.07925 Resistance (2). If however a +4.00% rise is repeated, expect EURUSD to hit both 1.0600 and 1.07000 on the short-term.
A break below the 4H MA50 can reverse this short-term to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) which form the long-term Support Zone.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsIt was was a choppy situation for the EURUSD as price action was caught within a channel between the 1.04450 and 1.03150 level through out the course of last week's trading session. The bullish momentum that started two weeks ago was strongly resisted by sellers around the 1.03750 - a level that shares a confluence with the bearish trendline on the daily time frame. All bullish attempt at this juncture in the market appear to be negated by the bears as I am of the opinion that we might be witnessing a breakdown of the 1.03150 level to signal a retracement phase in the coming week(s).
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Some more pressure is coming but limited on the long-termThe EURUSD pair broke today below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 06. This has come after failure to close above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) on successive attempts and most likely we will see a pull-back extension towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
This bearish leg from its beginning looks like those of October 26 - November 03 and October 05 - October 13. On the longer-term those pull-backs were Higher Lows on the uptrend since the September 28 Market Bottom. Common feature is that both happened when the 4H RSI was around the 30.000 oversold mark and after the 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross. As a result, a MACD Bullish Cross would be the confirmation to buy. Our medium-term target is again the 1D MA200.
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EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY #EURUSD
- As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for EUR was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. As of today, due to MARKET RISK being ON, all MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going up a bit. But with RETAIL SALES this situation has changed. Therefore, if the FED is HAWKISH, the USD can definitely go UP.
- Definitely, according to the market structure, EURUSD can go down to the support level of 1.0094 below. At the moment, there is quite a DOWN SIDE BIAS in the MARKET for EUR. After that, EURUSD can go up to 1.0772 LEVEL. If the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP, there will be more EURUSD BUY. So keep an eye on it.