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Eurusdsignals

EURUSD near the COVID 2020 low! Low risk buy medium-term.This analysis is an update on the 1D time-frame idea I posted 20 days ago: The price, always trading within a +1 year Channel Down pattern, is very close to the 1.06400 low that made the bottom during the COVID market crash in March 2020. Even though both the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line and the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down are slightly lower at around 1.05500, the risk/ reward ratio is turning to the buyers favor, on the medium-term only, for a number of reasons: 1) Since the June 16 2021 break, the pair has always rebounded towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) where either marginally below or just above it, got rejected towards a new Channel Down Lower Low. The 1D MA100 is currently at 1.1166 and declining. 2) The Fibonacci extension levels have quite accurately marked Lower Lows within the Channel: November 24 2021 and March 07 2022. Even though the next extension is the 2.5 at 1.04170, the 1D MA100 is much higher, making a potential trade here on roughly a 2.5 Risk/ Reward Ratio. 3) The 1D RSI is approaching the 1 year Support Zone, which has also very accurately marked Lower Lows inside the Channel Down. We are going long on EURUSD but only on the medium-term, aiming at taking profit on the 1D MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD WILL GO UP ? ECB COMMENT WILL HAWKISH ?- Today is a very important day for EURUSD. GERMAN FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI DATA, one of the most important events for EUR, is set to be released tomorrow. And today there is a very important FED CHAIRMAN story for USD. It will definitely VOLATILE EURUSD HUGE. - DXY is currently at 99.89 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.0957 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE BREAK DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS and pulls up with the POSITIVE COMMENT from ECB. Most likely the PRICE will be SHORT TERM UP up to 1.1070 LEVEL. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. COMMODITIES gives us a slightly MIXED RISK TONE. So I'm a bit reluctant to be a HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES BUY. Anyway VIX is getting a bit DOWN right now. Also BONDS PRICES show a slightly NEUTRAL BIAS. But BONDS SPREADS are getting GREEN. MARKET currently has a MARKET ENVIRONMENT with a NEUTRAL BIAS close to RISK ON. - The EURUSD PRICE can be UP to 1.1070 LEVEL. Today's USD HIGH VOLATILE EVENTS may make a difference. So stay tuned.
by benny_marshall
EURUSD First buy signals. 1.1100 possible medium-term.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a multi-month Channel Down with the Ukraine - Russia war acceleration the weakness. More recently, after a rejection on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), the price entered a selling sequence below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) that broke below the previous Lower Low and Support of the Channel. This week we see the first signs of a potential, medium-term trend reversal, as the 4H RSI is rebounding on a Higher Lows trend-line since April 06. This is what we call a Bullish Divergence, as despite the price action being on Lower Lows, the RSI is on the opposite (Higher Lows) showing a potential trend reversal as the selling gets weaker. In fact, we've seen the very same 4H RSI Higher Lows Bullish Divergence on all previous price Lower Lows of the Channel Down. More specifically, the current phase resembles the 1D MA50 rejection of October 29. As you see both fractals started falling after a price Double Top and halfway through the trend made the 1D MA50 rejection. On November 24 2021, EURUSD bottomed on its new Channel Lower Low and as the 4H MA50 broke, the trend turned sideways within a low gradient Channel Up that ultimately approached the 0.5 Fibonacci level. If the correlation continues to hold (Channel patterns tend to be symmetrical), then when/ if the 4H MA50 breaks again, expect to see a low slope Channel Up, which if broke upwards can approach the 0.5 Fibonacci. That level is currently at 1.11240 so medium-term swing traders can set a target zone of 1.10700 - 1.11000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
9
EURUSD Has it already bottomed or there is one last leg left?The EURUSD pair has so far been trading according to the pattern suggested last week: The price got rejected on the 1D MA50 and, in a repeat of the October 28 2021 rejection, is pulling for a Lower Low. The natural target is the 1.06400 Support of the COVID March 2020 low. However, as per the 1D MA50 rejection pattern, the new Lower Low could be as low as the 2.5 Fibonacci extension (1.04173). Today however, on the 4H time-frame, the RSI formed the third Higher Low since April 06. The same Higher Lows trend-line was seen on November 24 2021, which was the point where EURUSD made a (temporary) bottom and turned sideways for basically 2 months. The level that made the bearish trend turn neutral was when the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the Resistance for 16 days. As a result, a viable strategy is to hold on to your sells if you took our call last week, unless the price breaks the 4H MA50. So far it has been intact for 9 days. If it breaks, buy and target right below the 1.0 Fibonacci level at 1.1100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD The 1D MA50 rejection can deliver sub 1.0700 prices.The EURUSD pair got rejected last Thursday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and as a result it trading today towards the March 07 Low. A new Lower Low within the long-term Channel Up seems imminent as a break below the 1.0810 Low should put the 1.0640 low of the March 2020 COVID melt-down to test. In fact, the last 1D MA50 rejection was on October 28 2021, which also came after a Double Top. Both sequences are so far identical and if the current continues to replicate that of 2021, then the next Lower Low can be as low as the 2.5 Fibonacci extension at 1.04175. A safe approach for sellers, could be taking profit once the 1D RSI hits the 1 year Resistance Zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
EURUSD Channel Up on 4H. Nonfarm Payrolls to weigh.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since March 09 and on the last Higher High (top of the Channel) it got rejected on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). So far the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has held upon contact but with the Nonfarm Payrolls just coming out lower than expected we should wait and see the market reaction. Typically it should be bearish for the USD, hence push the EURUSD higher (though it had its own set of bad news this morning with the lower than expected German Manufacturing PMI but the higher E.U. CPI neutralized). Technically, scalping opportunities exist within the Channel Up (see how the RSI range charts this neutral trade within). A break below the 1.09455 short-term Support, is bearish aimed at the 1.08050 low, while a break above the 1D MA50 should be enough to push the price towards January's 1.14850 - 1.14950 Resistance Zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD WILL GO UP ? DXY WEAK OR NOT ? NFP + ISM⛔️ This is a very important week for EURUSD. CPI DATA for EUR is to be issued. This is a very VOLATILE event for the Euro. Because it is a very important INDICATOR. Among them are the ISM MANUFACTURING PMI, and the US LABOR DATA. These are the most important ECONOMIC INDICATORS and these are the HIGH VOLATILIE INDICATORS. ⛔️ DXY is currently at 98.44 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.1091 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE is located on the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the PRICE will be SHORT TERM UP up to 1.1228 LEVEL. ⛔️ Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES still shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently there is a NEUTRAL BIAS on the market side. ⛔️ The EURUS PRICE can be UP to 1.1228 LEVEL before it becomes DOWN. Then you can DOWN to 1.0849 LEVEL. According to the LABOR DATA and ISM MANUFACTURING DATA coming out today, we can expect some change in the EURUSD. ⛔️ Currently the MARKET may be the TREND LINE SUPPORT. If you BREAK that TREND LINE, EURUSD can sell faster.
by benny_marshall
EURUSD below the 1.5 month Lower Highs trend-line. How to trade.The EURUSD pair has been trading below a Lower Highs trend-line since February 10. Despite a bullish reaction and short-term Higher Highs after the March 07 bottom, the price remains below this trend-line that applies selling pressure on every contact. As long as the pair trades below the Lower Highs, it has more probabilities to break the Short-term Support, in which case it will most likely target the 1.08050 Low. On the other hand, a break and 4H candle closing above the Lower Highs, will be a bullish break-out signal towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1.11400 short-term Resistance. A break above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), reverses the trend to medium-term bullish towards the 1.14850 - 1.14950 Resistance Zone of January. Keep in mind the heavy macro-economic calendar this week (U.S. GDP, German Unemployment, German PMI, E.U. CPI, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls), all of which will affect greatly the pair. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURUSD within a Channel Up short-termThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame. The RSI moving sideways within roughly 65.00 - 40.00 is setting up the pace, where we can sell on the Resistance the Higher Highs and buy on its Support the Higher Lows of the price. Basically right now the price is trading within the 0.5 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels so a potential rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) could turn the price sideways. A break above the 4H MA200 would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the 1.14850 - 1.14950 Resistance Zone, while a break below 1.0960 would be a bearish break-out signal targeting the 1.08050 Support. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThis is my first video tutorial and I am not sure I am good at this but let me know if the video tutorial is preferable. Thank you Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish)/ Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
EURUSD Short-term trading plan ahead of the Fed.The pair has been pulling back again following a short-lived rebound above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) in March 09. The new structure is similar to the bearish patterns of January 14 - 26 and February 04 - 23. Both ended up testing at least their 1.786 Fibonacci extension, since they failed to make a Higher High above their Top. Ahead of Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision, our trading plan is to sell if a 4H candle closes below the 1.0900 Support and target the 1.786 Fibonacci extension at 1.07260 or buy if the 1.11253 High breaks and target first the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and if a closing above it is achieved, extend buying towards the 1.14970 Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD Make or break on a multi-year basis?EURUSD has been among the major losers of the Ukraine - Russia war and this has accelerated the bearish trend towards a Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since late 2016. This chart illustrates the pair on the 1W time-frame but with the CCI indicator below on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. This analysis manages to display the pair's long-term cycles and a very distinct pattern that is unfolding for the 3rd time in more than 3 decades. As you see every prior Higher Lows trend-line held on 3 occasions until a strong break downwards occurred that pushed EURUSD to Lower Lows aggressively. With the price now at its closest(almost on) to the Higher Lows trend-line since March 2020 (COVID crash), the key question is, which part of the Cycle are we on? Higher Low (3) or on the verge of breaking downwards? In Legs terms this looks like Higher Low (3). The 1M CCI though shows that we may be on the verge of a Break as it has broken below -150.00 and every time the pair has done so in the past 30 years, the Break below the Higher Lows trend-line occurred (exception December 2016). A break below the Higher Lows could complete at least a -20% drop from the previous top of December 2020, as the previous two breaks delivered roughly -25% and -28% corrections respectively. On the other hand, if this is Higher Low (3) and it holds, this can be the start of a very aggressive multi-year rise to new Highs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
53
EURUSD close to its medium-term bottom ahead of ECB & FED RatesThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since 2021. Yesterday the price came to the closest to the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down it has been since the March 31 2021 Lower Low and the 1D RSI the lowest since February 18 2020! Those are indications that the pair is approaching at least its medium-term bottom (if not long-term) ahead of a key 7 day volatility period that starts this Thursday (March 10) with the ECB making their Rate Decision and next Wednesday (March 16) when the Fed will announce theirs. Obviously this selling has been accelerated by the latest geopolitical dynamics (Ukraine - Russia war) but nonetheless, the long-term patter remains intact. If a bottom is made here, our target will be first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) around 1.1200 and if a 1D candle closes above it, then extension to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. Another way to book long profits is to look at the long-term 1D RSI Resistance (just over 61.500) and take profit once the RSI hits it. After that, if the Channel Down holds and rejects the price again, our sell targets will be first the 1.06400 COVID low of March 2020 and then the 2.5 Fibonacci extension at 1.04190. Note that only a break above the 1.14850 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) reverses the trend from long-term bearish to bullish. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD Triangle Strategie Prediction #20220304FX:EURUSD The instability of the financial system is almost as troubling as the downturn in the overall market. We found safe-haven demand in the volatile dollar. The dollar index rose slightly to multi-month highs, which in turn caused the euro to fall below 1.1100 against the dollar. There will be some important technical issues involved in this decline in the exchange rate. This is not just a symbolic move, but a 10-month low, which is entering the support level (in the 1.10 - 1.09 area), which represents the bottom of a large wedge for this pair.
Long
by hannesgao
EURUSD November Megaphone still holding. Watch the 1D closings!Since last week, the act of war on Ukrainian soil hasn't left EURUSD unaffected, as the geopolitical conflict has caused a strong rise on the USD (as a safe haven) and devaluation of the EUR (which is affected the most with the war being on European territory). That has completely reversed the bullish sentiment a week before caused by the hawkish stance of the ECB. However, technically the pair remains within the wider look of the Megaphone pattern that started after the November 24 2021 low. Yesterday its Lower Lows trend-line (bottom), marginally broke but the day managed to close back above it and within the pattern. So far this has managed to hold another 2 times in a week. It becomes obvious that the market participants need to pay close attention to the closings of 1D candles. As long as they do close above the Lower Lows trend-line, we have the conditions for another run and test of the 1.14850 Resistance. A closing below the Lower Lows trend-line would set in motion the test of the 1.5 Fibonacci extension below at 1.09400. Keep in mind that starting today, the markets will be under the added pressure and volatility cause by the Initial Jobless Claims, Jerome Powell's Testimony and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls. P.S. As the 1W chart below shows, always keep a long-term perspective as an investor: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
15
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsMy bias on this pair is contrary to the expectation of the majority as I continue to see a strong bullish move in the nearest future! Since my last publication on this pair, price did a correction into the bearish trendline (that was broken on 7th of Jan & 2nd Feb 2022) with a strong indication that the bullish momentum is about to begin hence my previous bias still holds (see link below for reference purposes). Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Triple bottom/Breakout) | Trendline Observation: I. Since the beginning of the last year 2021, the Euro recorded a 9.4% decline against the Greenback to express an emphatic bearish momentum. ii. And if we look closely at the charts, we will notice multiple attempts have been made to break out of key level @ $1.13500 since the beginning of the year 2022. iii. Multiple rejections of $1.115 in the last 3 months from buyers make this zone a strong niche for buyers as we can see how the price rejected this area on Friday to set the tone for a reversal move. iv. I am already in this trade but for those who are still doubtful of this bullish opportunity, a breakout of key level @ $1.13500 remains appropriate to buy... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry