EURUSD going for a 1.0367 HighThe EURUSD pair continues to trade sideways around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), keeping all this time the trend within the strict boarders of the long-term Channel Down pattern since the February 10 High.
As this pattern shows, which I've been analyzing on all recent posts, every Lower High is always priced above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and just over the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level between the prior Lower High and the last Lower Low. That value is now at 1.0367 and should be the short-term target (or break-out target when 4H MA200 breaks).
After that, the long-term pattern shows that it is best in R/R terms to go on a tight medium-term sell, targeting the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, which is where all previous Lower Lows where formed. SL tight just outside the Channel Down, so that if we get a 1D candle close above, reverse to buying towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is untouched since February 10.
Keep in mind that the only trend-line that hasn't been hit in the past 13 months (since June 17 2021 to be exact), is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and that is the trend-line you want to see break if you want a long-term trend change to bullish.
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Eurusdsignals
👉 EURUSD the price has not reached its main price level 👉EURUSD the price has not reached its main price level
in the coming week, the price movement will be determined by the movement in the ascending channel
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekAs all eyes remain fixed on the upcoming FOMC; The anticipated disruption to the euro-zone economy from energy supply constraints appears to put the Euro remains under downward pressure. However, from a technical perspective, I still see the possibility of a short-term uptrend coming up in the coming week. This video explains how I plan to take advantage of a potential opportunity that price action evolves this week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD eyes 1.0400 ahead of the Fed Meeting.On Wednesday we have this month's Fed Meeting where the policy makers are expected to raise another 0.75% the interest rates in the ongoing battle to lower the inflation. There is an opportunity for a short-term trade amidst this as the long-term Channel Down pattern (since early February) that the EURUSD pair has been trading in calls for one last push to price a new Lower High.
As this 4H chart shows, the Lower Highs have always been formed above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and currently the price is ranging around the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The 4H RSI pattern shows that every time the price has turned the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support, it prepares for the second part of the rebound to a Lower High. Currently a solid price just above the 4H MA20 is 1.0400.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekUnlike the US economy, this week is packed with economic data that has the potential of driving the momentum of the Euro. From a technical perspective, I have identified simple structures on the 4H timeframe that will be of major assistance in helping us prepare ourselves for trading opportunities lining up for us this week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Projected move within 1.0370 - 1.04650. How to trade afteThe EURUSD pair is making the expected rebound leg to a new Lower High within the year long Channel Down as we explained on our post 11 days ago:
As shown, every Lower High since March 31 is formed on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That puts a limit on the current move within approximately 1.0370 - 1.04650. If you bought the bottom (Lower Low) as suggested, you may consider taking profits within this range or at least move the SL to a comfortable profit level. Naturally selling is favored next but with the SL positioned just over the top of the Channel Down, that makes the Risk/ Reward ratio very appealing.
If it fails and the price breaks above, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is the short-term target (which last time rejected the price on Feb 11) with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the long-term (untouched since June 17 2021!). That is the level to look for a bullish break-out if you want to catch a sustainable long-term reversal wave.
On the other hand if the sell is successful and the top of the Channel holds, the short-term target should be the last Low with the next Lower Low projected on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension (around 0.96370).
P.S. As mentioned on the previous analysis also, notice how well the RSI Resistance and Support Zones have been working for selling and buying on the Lower Highs and Lower Lows respectively within the Channel Down since February.
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EurUsd- Best place to sellLast week, EurUsd dropped under parity and made a low around 0.9950. The pair reversed though and has started to correct higher.
At this moment, EurUsd is trading at 1.0165 and this correction could continue in the next days
This can offer swing traders a good opportunity to join the downtrend for a new drop under parity.
1.0350-1.0380 is a very strong resistance zone and here I will look for signs of weakness.
As long as this resistance stands the trend remains strongly bearish
EUR/USD SHORT BUY OPPOTUNITY NOW..
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DeGRAM | EURUSD range at supportEURUSD went down from the resistance zone as we predicted yesterday.
We expect further price consolidating at the support zone until we see evidence of a new trend.
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EurUsd to break parity soonYesterday, EurUsd spiked up and had a very short-lived rally above 1.01.
The pair reversed quickly giving us a clear signal that bears are not done yet.
At the time of writing the price is hovering just above 1:1 figure and I expect a break down soon
A break above 1.01 would delay this scenario
EURUSD Parity achieved, first time in 20 years! What's next?The EURUSD pair has finally hit today the 1.000 (parity) level, a feat last seen on December 2002! This 20 year span is regarded by many as the closing of a Cycle, however, there is a pattern involved that we shouldn't disregard. That is the Channel Down starting after the July 2008 High (amid the Subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S.) with perfect matching Highs and Lows ever since. This is best viewed on this 1M (monthly) chart.
As you see, the application of the Fibonacci retracement zones, gives a new perspective of how well they've been acting as Supports during the previous downtrends. This shows that if the psychological barrier of 1.000 breaks (by that we mean a full 1M candle closing below it), then the next Support is seen on the 0.382 Fibonacci (green shape). What is even more interesting is that during this 14 year span, this Fib level only held once (Jan 2012) and that only marginally (new Lower Low made 6 months after). As a result, the 0.236 is more likely to come by the end of the year/ start of next, if the 1.000 Support fails to contain this 1 year correction.
Note that the 1M RSI hasn't been that oversold since March 2015.
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EURUSD Approaching parity for 1st time since 2002 ahead of NFP!The EURUSD pair is on the 6th straight red 1D candle as it is headed towards the 1.000 level (parity) for the first time since December 2002! This may have come as a big surprise to many market participants but it was a realistic scenario based on the pair's multi-year Cycles that I pointed out last March during the first weeks of the Russian invasion in Ukraine:
Back to today and the 1D time-frame. As you see the technical pattern since the February has been a Channel Down with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as a Resistance. There are clear RSI Support and Resistance levels involved that accurately project the potential Lower Highs and Lower Lows on the Channel. At the moment the 1D RSI is approaching this 4 month Support Zone and as the price is nearing the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Down, we should be preparing for a buy.
However being so close to the psychological 1.000 (parity) level and with the usual high volatility that follows the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports, we can see some wild swings outside the pattern. Be ready to absorb this and at least on the short-term target the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (1.0390), where both previous Lower Highs have been formed.
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EurUsd- Sell resistance for parityTwo days ago, I said that there is a high probability for EurUsd to break under 1.0350 support and make a new low.
Indeed, the pair dive under this support and made a low around 1.0250.
At this moment the pair is consolidating and a correction could follow.
In such an instance, this rally should be sold in expectations of a new low around parity.
Only EurUsd back above 1.05 would put a pause in this bearish scenario
EURUSD Triple Bottom and potential huge Bullish Divergence?The EURUSD pair almost hit the 1.03470 Support and May 13 Low on Friday, held the level and see today a green 1D candle as the week started off. This is so far consistent with our view of 1 month ago:
As long as the price trades below the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, the long-term bearish trend is preserved. Naturally however, the 1.03470 Support, which is so far a Double Bottom and if Friday is confirmed then Triple Bottom, needs to break in order to target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a new Lower Low.
With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows since April 28, we might have a big Bullish Divergence at hand, indicating bias of rising buy accumulation for the first time in months. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line) pose as the short-term Resistance levels, however ideally we would like to see a break above the 1.07865 Resistance, where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is, in order to confirm the trend shift from long-term bearish to bullish.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekEven as the possibility of the EURUSD dipping to previous low hovers in the air considering the obvious signs of economic slowdown which exacerbate recession-related fears, I am of the opinion that a breakout/retest of the key level at $1.06000 could incite a bullish momentum in the nearest future to surprise the majority.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
EURUSD Stuck between the 4H MA50 and MA200The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the February 10 High but lately in particular since June 20, it has been sideways within the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Our last EURUSD idea on the 4H time-frame, accurately caught the most recent top of the Channel all the way to the Support:
Having a clear Support at 1.03470 on a technical Double Bottom formation, there are high chance of finally breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down, if the current price action continues to recreate the March 07 - 30 fractal. If not, a rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line, can take the price back to the Support where a 1D candle close below it, opens the way medium-term for prices near 1.0100 (-0.236 Fibonacci extension).
On the other hand, a break above the 1.078555 - 1.07720 Resistance Zone, can be enough to reverse the long-term trend to bullish and start targeting the higher Fibonacci retracement levels.
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EURUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe US Federal Reserve delivered a 75 bps rate hike (the largest hike since 1994), triggering recession fears which might ripple across the major pairs in the week. Also, the ECB pre-announced it would hike rates by 25 bps in July; it is obvious that lifting rates also mean higher borrowing costs. Amidst all these development and from a technical perspective, I am looking forward to a bullish momentum with a key level sitting at around $1.04900... However, if price action does the opposite, I will be looking forward to selling at breakdown/retest of the Demand zone @ $1.04000 (which I doubt will happen based on the current structure!).
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.