Long EURUSDI'm expecting bullish movement on EURUSD throughout the remainder of the month. We've already come down and took out liquidity residing below December 15th low (1.08811) and filling in the gap below that level. If price manages to push with good volume pass the 1.08963 price I'll be looking to enter a long position aimed at December's high.
Eurusdoutlook
EURUSD BUY
EURUSD is showing signs of a rebound from the higher low area of the uptrend line in the 4-hour timeframe chart.
📉 Expectations:
Anticipate the pair to re-test key support levels as highlighted in the attached chart.
📊 Trading Strategy:
This trade is based on a combination of technical analysis and candlestick patterns. It's a long-term position, so ensure sufficient margin to manage market fluctuations. Implement proper risk management in line with your account size.
🚦 Trading Rules:
1️⃣ Rule 1: If the trade does NOT surpass our entry level (GREEN LINE ON THE CHART), Do not enter the trade.
2️⃣ Rule 2: When the market hits Target 1, consider closing some positions or move your STOP LOSS to ENTRY price for safe trading.
3️⃣ Rule 3: After reaching Target 1, avoid placing new trades based on the same signal/alert.
4️⃣ Rule 4: If the market consolidates for more than 2 days, close the trade and patiently wait for the next favorable trading opportunity.
EURUSD: Euro outlook next weekNext week, the ECB's monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday, and important economic indicators from Germany will also be announced, so the euro may fluctuate significantly.
This week, a number of central bank officials spoke out against overly optimistic markets about a rate cut in 2024.
Next Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting is likely to be too early for ECB President Christine Lagarde to start setting a concrete schedule for interest rates, and markets will wait until the next Governing Council meeting on May 7 for more information. would have to.
Next week will see the release of the German and European PMI reports, the IFO annual report and the German Consumer Confidence Index. This data should be closely monitored as the German economy remains weak.
EUR/USD broke out of a channel pattern on Tuesday and is currently trading below the 200-day SMA of 1.0850. The current support level for this pair is 1.0787, but resistance areas at 1.0950 and 1.1000 are also observed.
💡 EURUSD: Analysis January 19Indicator is used:
- Chandelier Exit
- EMA
- MACD
Re-tested the 1.09 conversion resistance zone in the last session, but the selling force returned and prevented the price from rising above this level. However, observing on a daily basis we see a spindle - credit model. Potential reversal signal. Therefore, you need to be wary of the possibility of a price reversal to the upside. You can hold short positions according to the previous breakdown signal but the SL needs to be placed above the 1.09 resistance level.
EURUSD Weekly setupThat's my main view for the coming week about EURUSD. I expect it to pump and touch the main trendline around 1.10 area. As soon as we will broke up 1.092 we should see some real moves. On H4 timeframe there is also a good bullish divergence, and we can see a range on H4 with what looks like a short squeeze. I expect a pump like i said in my previous idea
EUR/USD Potential Bullish MoveA few qualifications for this trade are...
•Falling Wedge Pattern
•“Hidden” Divergence on the MACD.
If we start trading back above 1.0900 and the pivot zone, a target of 1.1150 (Median level) wouldn’t be unreasonable.
I'm going to keep an eye on long positions and see if we can begin trading higher.
#1 EURUSD Weekly Analysis 21.01.2024+
1.) weekly orderflow bullish
2.) took 2 weekly lows and reject
3.) 4 daily rejection candles on 1.08680 weekly level
4.) daily divergence (weekly orderflow)
5.) 4h divergence on weekly level
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1.) daily orderflow bearish
-could be a pullback trade-
waiting for a small pullback then long
EUR/USD Outlook
A potential bearish opportunity on EUR/USD . The current market conditions suggest that a downward movement might be in play.
Risk Management: Remember that trading involves risk, and it's important to only risk a small portion of your capital on any single trade. Adjust your position size accordingly.
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider seeking professional advice before making any trading decisions.
EURUSD Shorts from 1.09400 down towards 1.08000EU is currently exhibiting a similar pattern to other pairs, and my current stance for this currency pair is bearish. I'm patiently waiting for the 12hr supply zone to be mitigated, considering it as the nearest opportunity of interest for me. This aligns with the overall higher time frame trend, which is bearish.
Upon the mitigation of this zone, my plan involves waiting for a Wyckoff distribution to unfold within the specified area. Ideally, I will be looking for the Asian high within the zone to be swept. Following this occurrence, I will then be looking for selling opportunities back down to address the imbalances left below.
Confluences for EU sells are as follows:
- 12hr Supply zone caused a BOS to the downside on the higher time frame
- Imbalances and liquidity below that needs to get taken as well as a demand zone that needs mitigating.
- Overall trend of the market is bearish on the higher time frame.
- We are currently witnessing a pullback and I'm looking for my POI to continue this trend.
P.S. While I maintain a bearish outlook, I acknowledge the presence of equal highs above my zone, which could potentially lead to a break beyond my supply. In such a scenario, I recognize that price might aim for higher levels to enter a more premium area.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD!
EURUSD - Potential long ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on EURUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we have huge imbalance that have to be filled, so my point of interest is a long position from bullish order block + institutional big figure 1.08000.
Fundamental news: Upcoming week on Thursday will see results of Interest Rate on EUR. News with high impact on currency.
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Retail Data Shaping EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis:
1. US Retail Sales Increase: Recent data shows a 0.6% increase in retail sales in December, marking the strongest pace in three months. This indicates a solid holiday season and a resilient consumer attitude in the US, which could be a positive indicator for the US dollar (USD).
2. Consumer Resilience and Economic Outlook: Despite predictions of a recession, household spending has been surprisingly strong over the past year. However, this momentum is expected to slow down in 2024 due to persistent inflation, high borrowing costs, and diminishing savings. This could limit the strengthening of the USD.
3. Market Reaction: The immediate market response to the data was a drop in US Treasuries and stocks, suggesting a scaling back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This generally would favor the dollar.
4. State of the US Economy: Manufacturing output showed minimal growth, indicating weakness in that sector.
Technical Analysis:
1. Monthly Time Frame: EUR/USD has rejected a key resistance, suggesting a possible bearish reversal.
2. Weekly Time Frame: The pair is in an upward trend and is at a significant support, which could indicate a bounce.
3. Daily Time Frame: There is an overextension of the price, suggesting a bearish correction towards 1.0800
4. 4-Hour Time Frame: A shift towards an upward trend is observed, confirming the possibility of a correction.
Conclusion and Strategy:
- Short-Term Outlook: The current strength of the dollar, supported by solid retail sales, could keep EUR/USD under pressure. However, the overextension and upward trend in shorter time frames suggest an imminent correction.
- Medium-Term Outlook: The expectation of an economic slowdown in the US in 2024 and potential weakness in the manufacturing sector could limit the long-term strengthening of the dollar.
EurUsd- Strongly bearish under 1.0950As mentioned in my analysis of OANDA:EURUSD from two days ago, the pair failed to break above 1.1. Consequently, there was a potential for it to dip below the support level and continue its decline to the next significant support at 1.0750.
Indeed, the price dropped below the support zone and hit a local low at 1.0845 yesterday. Currently, the pair is undergoing an upward correction, presenting an opportunity for short trades.
In my view, any rallies toward 1.0950 should be considered for selling. Depending on risk tolerance and patience, the target can be set at either the recent low of 1.0850 or the major support at 1.0750.
The negation of this scenario occurs if EURUSD manages to break above 1.1.
Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches
Several ECB officials are expressing opposition to rate cuts, potentially helping to curb losses in the EUR/USD, which is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level after a more than 0.7% drop.
Davos has prompted ECB officials to share their views on the Euro Area's prospects and their positions on the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2024.
ECB Board Member Gediminas Šimkus, also Chairman of the Lithuanian Central Bank, suggests holding off on a central bank move, but sees the possibility of a cut in the summer. Similarly, ECB Board Member Madis Müller, the Governor of the Central Bank of Estonia, believes expectations for a rate cut are ahead of the current data reality.
However, the future direction of EUR/USD remains uncertain, as Fed officials are pushing back against interest rate hikes too, and their influence in the markets may be more significant.
Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, whose November comments raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, today (not at Davos) expressed a more cautious outlook on the pace of rate cuts ("I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past").
Monitoring other Fed members' addresses this week will be crucial:
Wednesday, Jan 17
09:00: Fed's Bowman Speech
09:00: Fed's Barr Speech
15:00: Fed's Williams Speech
Thursday, Jan 18
07:30: Fed's Bostic Speech
Friday, Jan 19
16:15: Fed's Daly Speech
EURUSD Lokking BearishExpanding upon our prior analysis, the Euro has reached the predetermined target at 1.08991 and is currently exhibiting a strong positive response within this specific zone. This observed market behavior instills confidence, and we foresee a prolonged upward trajectory in the Euro-Dollar chart in the hours ahead. This ongoing positive trend reinforces our conviction in the potential for sustained Euro strength against the Dollar.
💡 EURUSD: Forecast January 15EURUSD still cannot escape the narrow range around the edge of the rising price channel. The bullish structure still exists and we still have long positions targeting around 1.1200. However, it should be noted that accumulation around the lower border of the price channel for too long is an unfavorable signal for sellers, especially when there has previously been a strong downward wave. You can hold the position but need to set SL below the 1.0900 zone to prevent the price from reversing and falling.
EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside? EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside?
The EUR/USD currency pair seems poised for a technical breakout.
Analysing the 8-hour chart reveals a consolidation phase since the start of the year, following a decline below 1.1000, with this mark acting as a resistance level on two occasions since then.
Currently, EUR/USD is resembling a triangle/flag pattern, suggesting a potential technical breakout. The looming question is: Which direction will the pair break out? There are arguments to be made for both sides of the equation, but perhaps the case for a break to the downside is more convincing?
Traders are pricing in an ~80% probability of a Fed rate cut in March. Simultaneously, an European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut for April is also on the horizon.
While both central banks might fail to meet these expectations, the likelihood that the Fed pushes back might be lower than that of the ECB.
According to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, speaking at the World Economic in Davos, the prospect of ECB rate cuts in 2024 appears highly unlikely. At the same time, he emphasized the persistent threat of geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, which pose a risk to Euro supply chains and energy markets. This ongoing uncertainty could exert pressure on consumer prices, creating a challenging environment that might interfere with any potential rate cuts from the ECB.
EURUSD 4H : We have to wait until break one of them EURUSD
New forecast
The EUR/USD pair made an attempt to break the 1.0928 level, but was unable to hold below it yet, remaining confined between this support and the 1.0985 resistance. Therefore, we continue our neutrality until the price is able to confirm crossing one of these two levels to determine its next destination more precisely.
We point out that breaking the support and stability below it will put pressure on the price to resume negative trading and head towards 1.0892 initially, reaching 1.0808, while breaking the resistance and stability above it represents the key to resuming the bullish wave in the short term, heading towards testing the 1.1012 and 1.1082 areas initially.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.0985 and support line 1.0892.
resistance line : 1.0985 , 1.1012
support line : 1.0928, 1.0892
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EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video we take a close look at the EURUSD currency pair. We can see that this has been bullish on the higher time frame. We can see that it has traded into resistance, has also been range-bound since Friday and we are looking for a potential trade opportunity if market conditions are favourable. In the video we discuss price action, market structure, the trend and other important aspects of technical analysis. As always this information is for educational purposes only and not to be construed as financial advice.