Trading the Italian Referendum, do we have a major crisis?Happy weekend traders, what an end to the year we have on our hands.. as most of you know already I have been screaming parity for some time!
I think that FX markets are not too complacent about the referendum. Italy's complicated politics mean a "No" vote (which is expected) doesn't necessarily follow through to the 5-star movement coming into power. The impact of a "No" would likely have a EUR moderate negative outcome. The Renzi government will likely come under pressure as fears of a fall grow rapidly.
I recommend fading EURUSD allies on a surprise "Yes" vote and selling nearer the 1.08 area. A "No" vote will cause moderate weakness but trading EUR short at these levels is not something I am a fan of.
If the public rejects the reform as expected the euro will come under increased downwar pressure, the cyclical low of 1.0458 from March '15 may will open the gates to a potential test of parity before the year end. Market participants will be concerned that snap elections could be held given the antiestablishment and Eurosceptic performance in national polls.
It would not surprise me if we briefly climb back toward the 1.088 level although upward momentum is unlikely to be sustained for long.
You can see my previous ideas to see my very own euro-scepticism, all european banks are in trouble.. the difference between the U.S and E.U is the reserves on centralised debt. Essentially as Greece goes down, Portugal Italy etc you are talking about undermining the reserves of the European central banking system as a whole. Banks that were not even into derivatives are getting smoked. Leaving everyone with their own debt has really been the achilles heel of the whole EZ.
I have linked my previous eurusd ideas to show that I have been advocating the collapse of the euro since my time here on tradingview.
All the best guys and GL.
** DISCLAIMER: THIS IS MY PERSONAL VIEW AND NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE **
