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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%). On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier. Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September. Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook. In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates." In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Nears 1.0500 Amid ECB Focus"In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD remains defensive, hovering around 1.0560, the lowest in a week, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The currency pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from monthly highs. Support was found around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Daily chart technical indicators paint a mixed picture, with momentum hovering around the midpoint but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south. The pair is currently testing support around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a bearish trend. The primary support is the upward trendline around 1.0550. As long as the price stays above that level, the Euro's recovery potential remains intact. However, breaking below could incur additional losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. To shift the technical outlook to bullish, the Euro needs to rise above 1.0610.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data. The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760. Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase. The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment. Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Steady Amid Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD maintains a higher level but remains below 1.0600 in Wednesday's Asian trading. Risk sentiment prevails, weighing on the US Dollar, especially amid positive data from China. Market focus is on Lagarde's speech and EU/US data. The EUR/USD rate has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which still slopes downward. The Momentum indicator is above 100, signaling positivity for the Euro, though the overall trend remains bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the price is well-supported and above key SMAs, with technical indicators indicating an uptrend. The current resistance level is around 1.0600, and a breach could draw attention to 1.0630. Closing above this level daily would pave the way for further gains. Conversely, dropping below 1.0540 could weaken the Euro, pushing it towards 1.0500. EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, defying positive US data and higher Treasury yields. The pair reached a high of 1.0595 before retracing. ZEW's survey shows positive signs in the region, with the Eurozone's economic sentiment index improving to 2.3 from -8.9 in October, beating market expectations. Germany's ZEW also recovered from -11.4 to -1.1, surpassing the market's consensus of -9. Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting, expected to keep rates unchanged for the first time since June 2022. On Tuesday, optimistic US economic data included Retail Sales (up 0.7% in September, compared to the expected 0.3%) and Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0%). The US Dollar briefly gained from this data but quickly lost momentum. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0540 but then reversed its uptrend. Both US and European bond yields surged, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.86% from 2.60%, and Germany's equivalent yield increased from 3.40% to 2.88%. Bond markets continued to experience significant fluctuations. If Eurozone rates follow Treasury yields, the impact might be offset, as seen on Tuesday. However, robust US data could limit EUR/USD's upward potential. On Wednesday, Housing Permits, Building Permits, and the Beige Book by the Fed are due. Stay tuned for updates on this dynamic market scenario.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
ECB's Next Move in Inflation Fight: Managing Excess Liquidity Frankfurt, Reuters - In the ongoing fight against inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are gearing up for a significant shift in strategy. They are set to deliberate on ways to address the vast pool of excess liquidity inundating banks, with the possibility of raising reserve requirements emerging as the initial tactic. This pivotal discussion is expected to kick off at the ECB's forthcoming meeting in Athens on October 26 or during an autumn retreat for policymakers. Despite the ECB having already raised interest rates ten times to record levels, inflation still stubbornly hovers above its 2% target. With interest rates likely to remain unchanged until December, policymakers are pivoting their attention to the massive infusion of funds into the banking system through a decade of bond purchases. This surplus liquidity undermines the effectiveness of rate hikes, reduces competition for deposits, and leads to substantial interest payments and potential losses for some central banks. Sources indicate that the debate on curbing excess liquidity will focus on three key areas: revising the mandatory reserves banks maintain at the ECB, unwinding the bond-buying programs, and establishing a new framework for influencing short-term interest rates. While an ECB spokesperson declined to comment, insiders suggest that several policymakers favor increasing the reserve requirement from the current 1% of customer deposits to potentially as high as 3% or 4%. This move would serve the dual purpose of absorbing excess cash from the banking system and reducing interest payouts by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks. However, some policymakers advocate bundling the decision on reserves with discussions regarding the ECB's asset purchase schemes and interest-rate framework, which could lengthen the decision-making process. Shrinking the 4.8 trillion euro debt pile acquired by the ECB since 2015, mainly to counter deflation risks, poses even greater challenges and market sensitivities. While phasing out the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by not replacing maturing bonds is an option, policymakers are cautious about upsetting financial markets, particularly Italian government bond investors. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently indicated that bond-buying schemes were not on the table at the latest policy meeting, emphasizing the importance of PEPP for policy transmission. While there have been suggestions to sell bonds acquired under the older Asset Purchase Programme, some argue this would result in even larger losses for the ECB. Sources suggest that a decision on bond-buying schemes might not materialize this year and, if it does, may not take effect until early 2024 or later in the spring. Furthermore, debates surrounding the policy framework—whether the ECB should continue to set an interbank rate floor or revert to a corridor system—are expected to extend into 2024, as the volume of excess reserves in banks keeps the ECB effectively locked into a floor system. A study presented at the ECB's summer symposium in Sintra suggested that, now that monetary stimulus is no longer necessary, the ECB could reduce bank liquidity to a range of 521 billion euros to 1.4 trillion euros while still meeting banks' reserve needs." This revised text provides a more engaging and concise summary of the original content, making it more attractive to readers.
by Ayame_Hana
53
"EURUSD Set to Rise: Support Holds Strong"#EURUSD expected to rise in the coming days the price is clearly reached the support which was around 1.06330, afterwards we can see that the market found a momentum and pushed up and considering the weak ascending broadening wedge pattern in 30M TF it looks week to push it back down. The price is expected to rise towards the trending line (@1.07614-1.08260) 🔥EURUSD BUY ( 1.06900 - 1.06500) 🟢TP1- 1.07200 🟢TP2- 1.07500 🟢TP3- 1.08000 🔴SL- 1.06180
Long
by FKW-Millions
EURARS Long The perfect Bullish Trend45 degress; Andre Kostolany called this conditions as the perfect healthy trend that will continue longer than expected! strategy bullish trend no profit taking The trade is over ,if the trend conditions change Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather than struggling on with the current mix of austerity, bail-outs and debt restructuring. Summary Peronism, a populist movement established by President Juan Peron in the 1940s, remains the dominant political ideology in Argentina, but several parties with varying philosophies now vie for power. Despite its economic might, Argentina has often struggled to meet its international financial obligations, defaulting on its sovereign debt nine times. Argentina has maintained a close partnership with the United States since the Obama administration, but its relations with the rest of South America have been strained over China’s growing influence in the region. Argentina is considered one of the most stable democracies in Latin America, but the government faces several enduring challenges, including endemic corruption and low levels of public trust. In 2020, Argentina ranked 78 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, tying with states including China and Kuwait. What is the state of Argentina’s economy? Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico. Its major industries include automobiles, textiles, mining, technology, agriculture, and tourism. Additionally, analysts say there is significant economic potential in the development of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, and related resources, such as lithium. Argentina has historically shifted between pro-business and populist administrations, which have taken a more heavy-handed role in the economy and increased social spending. Before taking office, Fernandez promised to reverse the austerity measures enacted under Macri. His administration has since increased taxes on exports and high-income households, lowered interest rates, and raised the minimum wage. However, while year-on-year unemployment has fallen recently, the country still has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, and four in ten Argentines live below the national poverty line. Argentina’s top trading partners are the United States, Brazil, and China. The United States is also Argentina’s largest foreign investor, with more than three hundred U.S. companies operating there. In addition, Argentina is a member of several regional trade groups, including the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the Latin American Integration Association, and it is currently a prospective member for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a bloc of the world’s most advanced economies. What are Argentina’s major economic challenges? Argentina’s climate for business and investment has worsened in recent years, weakening due to political dysfunction, price and capital controls, high inflation, debt concerns, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, foreign investment dropped to $4.1 billion, down 38 percent from the previous year, and several international companies announced they were downsizing or leaving Argentina amid the country’s ongoing recession. The overall economy has shrunk each year since 2018. Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries per capita in the early twentieth century. However, economists say that its overreliance on commodity exports and unsustainable government spending fueled frequent boom-bust cycles, resulting in political instability and economic decline in the decades that followed. Successive administrations have struggled to keep the country’s finances in check during periods of economic turmoil. As a result, Argentina has often failed to pay its international creditors; it has defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times over the last two centuries, one of the most frequent in the world to do so. The largest default occurred in December 2001, when the government reneged on nearly $93 billion in loans, causing Argentina to lose access to international debt markets. To restore its ability to borrow, Macri cut export taxes, lifted currency controls, and negotiated a debt settlement with holdout creditors in 2016. While these actions were successful, Argentina lost access again following the country’s default in May 2020. As of December 2020, Argentina’s total national debt was $336 billion, or nearly 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Of that, the government owes $45 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and $2.4 billion to the Paris Club, an informal group of private creditors.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
1
BluetonaFX - New Range Zone EURUSDHi Traders! A new range zone has been established on the EURUSD 1H chart, and there may be some opportunities for entries before a breakout. The current range is roughly 39 pips, so the range zone is quite small. Resistance to the range zone is at 1.09463, and support is at 1.09072. There was a previous price rejection at 1.28486, which we have highlighted on the chart. This level could be a key level; if we break above the range zone, then the market will most likely test this level again. If there is a break below the range zone, we have a vector level at 1.08644 and a second vector level below that at 1.08014. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow; we would love to hear your thoughts. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
EURUSD: Fall or rise focus here This is its 1h chart. It can be clearly seen that it has gone through a downward trend channel in the early stage. It has recently stepped out of this channel and built a small bottom. It is currently testing the first resistance and whether it can convert the resistance to support. is the most important thing right now. To judge it, in addition to analyzing its own trend, we also need to analyze it in combination with the trend of DXY. In EURUSD's 1h chart, it is currently stepping back to MA30, but the overall pattern is still more advantageous for bears. The lower MA60 is near 1.070, and the support here will be relatively more effective. In the 1h chart of DXY, MA30 has just been broken, and MA60 is near 103.8. If it cannot break through by then, it will fall back again, confirming the support of MA20. On the 1D chart, the strong support of DXY is around 102.4, and the resistance is 103.85. If it breaks through, the top can reach around 105.6. It can be inferred that EURUSD will still be under pressure at 1.088 with a high probability. Of course, to reach 1.088, the process of turning the current resistance into support must first be completed. In the near future, focus on the support around 1.073-1.069. Resistance near 1.08-1.09. If it falls below the support, there is a certain probability that the bottom will be around 1.048 (DXY105.6)
Short
by EagleEyeStrategy
EURUSD 25/04/2023 UPDATEHi Traders! Our EURUSD idea on the 25/04/2023 was absolutely smashed, which resulted in a fantastic risk to reward setup. We reached the price target of 1.10760 before retracing around the 1.0956 level which is the now the new resistance. There was a further push to the downside and we are now ranging looking for direction, trading opportunities will come soon and will post as soon we find any. Make sure you stay tuned! As always, your support is greatly appreciated! BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - EURUSD 1H Chart Trade IdeaHi Traders! We had a breakout of the short term resistance level of 1.10004 which then led to a pullback around the 1.10671 level as the market tried to re-test the main resistance level of 1.10760 which made a double top formation. If the market stays below 1.10671 we are likely to see a re-test of 1.10004 as support with the 100 moving average also near that level at 1.09983, any breaks above 1.10671 we are likely to see another re-test of the main resistance at 1.10760 and if that breaks, there is potential of a further push to the 1.11000 level. Please don't forget follow, like and comment, there will be plenty more to come from us over the next few days and weeks - your support is greatly appreciated! BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
Go long on EURUSD, this will enable you to profit from it In the 30-minute chart, there is currently a pullback after an uptrend, while in the 2-hour chart, there are clear bullish signals and the MACD indicator is about to form a golden cross, presenting a great opportunity to go long. Yesterday, I shared these ideas with my friends , who were the first to see my strategies. In addition, I also have trading strategies for Bitcoin, gold, crude oil, GBPUSD, and USDCNY, all of which are medium-term strategies and excellent for those who prefer to trade on a medium-term basis. Of course, if you prefer to trade quickly, you can still find trading opportunities from the charts. Traders, if you like my sharing, please follow and support me. I will post more interesting trading information involving gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrency, and stocks. If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comment section, and I will answer them for you.
Long
by EagleEyeStrategy
EURUSD H1Hello traders, EURUSD is setting up for a downside move, i am currently waiting for price to break the downside support level which is also possible to become head and shoulder neckline. If price break that area and give me a beautiful retest i will be looking for a short position opportunity, in case price doesn't break the support level or neckline of head and shoulder and give me a impulsive break to the upside red trend line i will be looking for a short term long position opportunity up to previous high, this is my view about EURUSD. watch EURUSD according to your own trading strategy and look for a short position opportunity for a short term trade setup after breakout of support. If price go to the upside without hitting the support level then i will be let it go and this setup will be invalidate. This is just analysis, not the exact trade or any kind of signal that proven with wining or losing % so be sure trade with your own according strategy do not depend on my analysis. I wish you good luck in trading.
Short
by TheLoserMan
20 Reasons BUY EURUSD 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1:✨Eagle eye: bullish trend also filled corrective wave 2:📆Monthly: after a valid low price goes to a corrective back formaatting a builduo here in favor of bulls 3:📅Weekly: choch done also make support with proper lower high low 4:🕛Daily: bullish structure here stating an impulsive move 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: record session count and correction done 7: 3 Volume: bullish volume is in power 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: protected 40 areas also bullish formation here long consolidation 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: walking on the band and middle band support 10: 6 Strength ADX: sharp bear dmi up, but bulls are still in power 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: eur stronge ✔️ Entry Time Frame: h1 12: Entry TF Structure: right now is bearish, but based on sentiments and bigger tf, we are seeking buy entries only 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: h4 d1 15: FIB: trigger event done ☑️ final comments: test entry. If it confirms, add 2nd entry at the upper side breakout 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 1.07609 18: ✋Stop losel:1.0773 19: 🎯Take profit:1.089 20: 😊Risk to reward Ratio: 1:5 🕛 Excepted Duration: 2 days
Long
by Optimum369
EURUSD ROAD TO 1.16 AND BEYOND!The EURUSD IS LOOKING PROMISING! Many positive economic data and a recovery in its economy has been surrounding the EURUSD lately. As US has attempted to drag the EURUSD down with its rapid increase in interest rates the EURUSD has had a strong recovery as well. On september the EURUSD was at a price of $0.99 for the first time since 2002! IT WAS A NO BRAINER BUY IF YOU SAW IT AT THOSE PRICES!!! Here are other factors that are influencing on its rise: Strong economic data: The Eurozone has recently seen positive economic data. This suggests that the Eurozone economy is recovering from the previous economic attack, which may support the value of the euro. Interest rate differentials: The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates low, while the US Federal Reserve has been alarmingly increasing interest rates. This could make the euro relatively more attractive compared to the US dollar, as investors seek higher returns on their investments. Weakness in the US dollar: The US dollar has weakened against other major currencies recently, in part due to concerns about rising inflation and the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more. This has made the euro relatively more valuable in comparison. Have a nice day!
Long
by CryptoGao1