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Eurousd

Multitude of outcomes possible !Right now there is too much going on, I recommend stay out for today and tomorrow (if you are lucky and dont have any positions) and see what gets confirmed for one side we have the up trend which is on wave 4/5 of elliot although its a bit too much retractment for my like (nothing that we havent seen before) if the pair can retake the 1,1471 then the 1,16-17 will be back in sight for another revisit. on the bearish side this latest rejection of the 1,17 area may means something, we could be on wave 1 of a fresh bearish elliot wave but this has to be confirmed by the pair not going any higher than 1,14 (ish) this would confirm the retractment and then we can say that wave 3/5 would take us right down to the 1,1050-1100 area!! in that case, we could unlock a further downside movement for ends of september after the China turmoil calms down. we can also see a ranging period (couldnt add this onto the chart... too much going on) and stay in between 1,11 and 1,14 until the situation in the markets gets clearer, this could happen by the investor preassure and the central banks fighting to contain the bleeding markets by easing and easing... as I said... nothing is yet confirmed so stay out, get your Pj's on, put a movie and have a good pizza because we have to stay out for now *******remember I am NOT telling you to buy/sell, its only your responsability what you do with my charts. I am not responsible of anybody's acts*********
by SolidSnake
2
Early signs of a trend reversal?This steep market decline in the S&P500 requires a lot of attention! until there is clarity speculation about the depth of the correction will prevail. The Good La st week the U.S. economy showed good signs of job creation, CPI index at 0.1%, housing starts were strong. The bad The conference broad still expect moderate economic growth, building permits plummeted, the S&P 500 earnings growth are plummeting. Fed Raise? I have two opinions on why the Fed might be biased to raise rates this September, and why it might not? Why it might do? Clearly the Fed won't raise rates with many bps, it said if it does, it will raise it gradually in accommodation with the economic performance. Such raise won't necessarily make credit harder to get, as it will be still considered as CHEAP money. Another reason maybe be due to Fed's credibility related issues. Yellen has been saying that raising rates decision will be based on consistent job growth and inflation figures, and both have been printing figures that are in tandem with her basis for the final decision, if she doesn't do as she said, the Fed might lose credibility (a true asset they need). Capital migration from everywhere to the US shall boost inflation and asset prices for homes and other goods, it might also help in filling the budget gap. Also plunging oil prices is causing fuel driven companies to save more and hold reserve cash that they clearly do not know what to do with, that will cause wages to increase and by that boosting the economy. Why it might not raise? If global markets are poised to go for recessions like China for example, this might drag the U.S. again into the swirl. Falling oil prices are dampening inflation globally, in a time where the Fed is ahead of global central banks in the deleveraging process. With China de-valuating the Yuan, a new time for currency wars began, and many other countries in the EM markets may follow the act, sending the U.S. dollar stronger and hurting American exports. Looking at Gold prices everyone is shifting their money into the safe haven metal, as gold returned into the green candle territory. There are many other global economic risks that signal that the U.S. should not take the road of deleveraging all alone. Breaking resistance level. I have been waiting for a break out of the 1.15 or the 1.04 level since January of this year and the pair finally did. The pair finally created a daily green candle closing above the 1.15 key resistance level. This puts my bias on the bullish side, but given the fundamental risks that the Fed might raise interest rates very soon, I believe that there is a high possibility of a fake breakout due to the divergence in technicals and fundamentals. To look further, the pair has been printing higher lows since March, then found a rejected triple bottom (3 blue circles) at 1.08. The final bottom was on the 5th of August and was followed by a rebound to touch the 1.170 figure. Now if prices are to continue with the uptrend and continue to trade above the 200 daily moving average (which adds to my bullish sentiment), I believe the next target should be the 1.2000 round number. But given the high market uncertainty of the near future, especially on such a volatile pair, bulls (smart money dudes) might want to see a re-test of the 1.100 figure trading at the 50 DMA. I believe that the pair will retrace from this rebound and will figure a BAT pattern to push until it reaches, 1.10 before it pulls the bullish trigger. For now I would short the pair with a trailing stop loss, and keep the market riding with target of 1.10 but I will not set a take profit limit, in case Fed rose interest rates and prices kept falling.
by hussein.ahmed
1