Here’s a summary of the EUR/USD chart: **Trend Analysis**: Here’s a summary of the EUR/USD chart:
1. **Trend Analysis**:
- The chart shows an upward channel with clear support and resistance lines.
- The price is currently trading near the middle of the channel, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish momentum.
2. **Moving Averages**:
- Several moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200 EMA) are displayed.
- The shorter-term EMAs (20 and 50) are starting to slope upwards, aligning with the bullish trend.
- The price has broken above the cluster of EMAs, which can indicate bullish strength.
3. **Projection**:
- The purple arrow suggests a scenario where the price may continue rising toward the upper channel boundary.
- A potential pullback to the support line of the channel is anticipated before another upward push.
4. **Key Levels**:
- Resistance: The top boundary of the channel near 1.0500-1.0540.
- Support: The lower boundary of the channel near 1.0380-1.0400.
5. **Possible Trade Setup**:
- A buy opportunity could arise if the price retraces to the lower boundary or EMA cluster before resuming the upward movement.
- Targets could be set near the upper channel resistance (1.0500+).
- A break below the channel would invalidate this bullish scenario.
Eurodollar
Gold buy zone CAPITALCOM:GOLD
Buying Zone: 2610**
- **Rationale:** The 2610 zone represents a strong **support area**, where you anticipate buyer interest will outweigh selling pressure, leading to a potential price reversal or bounce.
- **Confirmation Signals:**
- Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) or significant buying volume around 2610 on the **1-hour chart**.
- Ensure that price respects this level without breaking below it significantly, confirming it as a reliable entry point. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
**Target: 2634**
- **Rationale:** The 2634 level is identified as a **resistance zone** or a high-probability take-profit area. This could be a previously tested resistance or a psychological level where selling pressure is expected.
- **Technical Indicators:**
- Monitor for potential slowing of momentum (e.g., RSI divergence or overbought conditions) as the price approaches 2634.
- Watch for a failure to break 2634 on prior attempts, as this strengthens the case for a reversal or consolidation near the target.
**Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss:** Place your stop loss slightly below the **2610 level**, around 2605 or lower, depending on your risk tolerance, to protect against invalidation of the support zone.
- **Risk-Reward Ratio:** Ensure the trade offers a favorable risk-reward ratio. For instance, if targeting a $24 move (2610 to 2634), limit your risk to around $10 (stop at 2600).
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current abbreviated trading week, the Eurodollar is exhibiting a narrow trading range above the Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035. Current analysis suggests that the Euro is poised to resume its upward trajectory, with anticipated targets of Mean Resistance 1.051 and a potential extension to Mean Resistance marked at 1.060. It is important to note that a pull-down movement may occur towards Mean Support at 1.039; with a possible retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035, before resuming the upside movement.
BTC is approaching the 99,000 resistance zone,BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BTC is approaching the 99,000 resistance zone, where selling pressure could emerge. If this level holds, the downside target remains at 86,000, which aligns with a significant support level. Keep an eye on price action and momentum indicators for confirmation before entering a position.
Entry Position:
- **Sell Entry:** Around 98,900–99,100 (to account for potential resistance zone fluctuations).
Stop Loss:
- **Stop Loss:** 99,600 (above the resistance zone to manage risk).
Target:
- **Take Profit:** 86,000 (key support zone).
Risk-Reward Ratio:
- Ensure the risk-to-reward ratio is at least 1:2 to maintain a favorable trading setup. Adjust your position size accordingly.
Keep monitoring for bearish confirmation signals (e.g., rejection wicks, bearish divergence, or a breakdown of intraday support).
EURUSD Analysis==>>Pumping Soon!?EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is currently moving near the Heavy Support zone($1.040-$1.022) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and an Important Support line .
According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD is completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 , so we should expect bullish waves soon .
Also, Regular Divergence (RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect EURUSD to rise to at least $1.049 AFTER the Downtrend line is broken , and if the Resistance zone($1.040-$1.022) is broken, we have to wait for further increases .
⚠️Note: If EURUSD breaks the Important Support line, we can also expect the break of the Heavy Support zone($1.040-$1.022).⚠️
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour Time frame ⏰.
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EUR/USD Break-and-Retest: Next Stop 0.97?Weekly Timeframe:
Clear downtrend with a rejection at the 50 MA and a break below key support. Next target lies around 0.97-0.98, a major demand zone.
Daily Timeframe:
Confirms the bearish bias with a retest of the broken support, now acting as resistance. Price remains below the 50 MA, signaling continued downside.
Correlation:
Both timeframes align in a bearish trend. Weekly sets the direction, while daily refines entry opportunities with break-and-retest setups.
EUR/USD Market Dynamics: Analyzing Recent Price MovementsFollowing our previous analysis, we anticipated the market's response to last week's robust U.S. economic indicators, particularly regarding the USD's strength against the EUR. After experiencing a notable bearish trend, the euro managed to recoup some losses, specifically retesting our pending order at 1.04380. As I write this article on December 23, 2024, the currency pair trades around 1.04130, providing a rejection of our entry point.
On Monday, the U.S. Dollar (USD) stabilized after a significant drop on Friday. This sell-off was prompted by weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Specifically, the core PCE—a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve—rose by 2.8%, falling short of the projected 2.9%. On a month-to-month basis, both headline and core PCE inflation inched up by only 0.1%, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's trajectory concerning interest rate adjustments in 2025.
Federal Reserve officials are beginning to signal expectations of fewer rate cuts in the coming year, as the disinflation process appears to be slowing and uncertainties loom over how President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming immigration, trade, and taxation policies could affect the economy.
Given the current outlook, we are anticipating a continuation of bearish trends in the market.
Previous Idea:
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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar exhibited a bearish trend during the initial part of the week; however, it subsequently demonstrated a significant recovery by retesting the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.035. This renewed interim rebound is poised to drive the Eurodollar toward the Mean Resistance level of 1.051. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.035 remains plausible.
EUR/USD Stagnates Near 1.0500: All Eyes on the Federal ReserveThe EUR/USD currency pair is currently consolidating within a narrow range, lingering around the 1.0500 to 1.0490 levels. As investors turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, market sentiment remains cautious yet focused. Today's scheduled announcement regarding the US Federal Funds Rate, along with the subsequent FOMC statement and press conference, could further bolster the US dollar.
Expectations are leaning toward a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates by the Fed. However, it is anticipated that the central bank will accompany this cut with somewhat hawkish commentary regarding future policy guidance. Such remarks could indicate that despite the rate cut, the Fed remains vigilant about economic conditions and inflation pressures.
This meeting represents a crucial moment for market participants, as it could usher in significant volatility, particularly ahead of tomorrow's Unemployment Claims report. As traders assess these economic indicators, they are likely to position themselves accordingly, especially if the data reflects a robust labor market.
Given the current landscape, our outlook for the euro remains bearish as the dollar shows a tendency to strengthen. The pressure on the eurozone continues to mount amid various economic challenges, making it difficult for the euro to gain traction against its US counterpart.
As we navigate this period of uncertainty, traders are advised to keep a close eye on the developments from the Federal Reserve, as well as any shifting dynamics in the broader economic context. The next few sessions could prove pivotal for both currencies, influencing the short-term trading strategies of many market participants. We expect the dollar to maintain its upward trajectory, while the euro may struggle to hold its ground.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for December 16, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair starts the week with continued gains, trading around 1.05200 during the Asian session on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the decline in the US Dollar (USD) amid lower US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.
The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its final monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market analysts predict the U.S. central bank will cut rates but prepare the market for a pause given the strong U.S. economy and inflation stalled above 2%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets have already all but priced in the possibility of a quarter basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting.
In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and dot plots will be closely watched. Earlier this month, Powell struck a cautious tone, saying, “We can afford to be a little more cautious in trying to find a neutral stance.” He indicated he was in no rush to cut rates.
The euro gained support after President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist ally Francois Bayrou as France's prime minister, raising hopes for political stability. Macron promised to quickly select a new candidate for the job after Michel Barnier was forced to resign following a confidence vote in parliament.
Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.05000, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.05600 back downThis week, my analysis for EUR/USD aligns closely with GBP/USD, as both pairs have exhibited bearish momentum. However, there are subtle differences in price action as we approach the final month of the year. A key focus is the 4-hour supply zone around 1.05600, which initiated a break of structure to the downside.
Once price reaches this area, I’ll look for redistribution on the lower timeframes to confirm a potential sell. If the price moves higher, the 2-hour supply zone just above offers an even better opportunity for shorts.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
- Liquidity Below: Significant downside liquidity remains untapped.
- Bearish Momentum: The pair has been bearish for the past two weeks.
- Break of Structure: Key levels have broken to the downside on the higher timeframe.
- DXY Correlation: The dollar index (DXY) supports this bearish setup.
- Key Supply Zone: The 4-hour supply zone caused the initial bearish move.
Note: If price mitigates the 5-hour demand zone, I may consider a counter-trend buy to take price back up toward the supply zone. However, if this demand zone fails, it will trigger another break of structure (BOS), prompting me to identify a new supply zone for potential shorts.
Stay disciplined and have a strong trading week—let’s close Q4 on a high note!
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has demonstrated bearish momentum during this week's trading session by staying firmly between Mean Res 1.060 and Mean Sup 1.049. This weak price action might be the clue to nulling the Inner Currency Rally 1.072 and extending its trajectory to revisiting the completed Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the Mean Res level at 1.060 and reignite its upward trend.
EUR - LONG - Swing Trading*This is a risky trade since if it breaks support it can take us to very low levels, which is why an appropriate stop loss must be used.
We are in a support between 1.042 and 1.045 that is holding up very well until now. Now that time has passed, it seems we are close to breaking 1.05 and will remain there in the following days. It is necessary to give the trade time of around 6 to 14 days to reach the targets.
Targets:
T1: 1.059 - 1.060 (protect or take partial)
T2: 1.065 (close - 6 days)
T3: 1.080 (close - 14 days)
EURUSD: Possible Breakout of Downtrend Line?On the 1-hour chart for EUR/USD, the price is currently testing a descending trendline that has served as dynamic resistance over the past few days. After bouncing off a support level around 1.0453, the pair displays signs of strength and is nearing a crucial decision-making zone. The horizontal resistance at 1.0490 aligns with the trendline, and breaking through this area could signal a potential short-term bullish reversal.
A potential buying opportunity may arise if EUR/USD successfully breaks above the downtrend line and subsequently retests the broken level, which could act as support.
Expected Pattern : Breakout followed by Pullback.
Buy Scenario :
Confirmation: A breakout above 1.0490 with a strong close, followed by a pullback to retest this level as support.
Entry Point: During the pullback, near the 1.0490 area (previous resistance potentially turning into support).
Stop Loss: Set below 1.0475 to protect against false breakouts.
Primary Target (TP1): 1.0560, a horizontal resistance (approximately 70 pips gain).
Secondary Target (TP2): 1.0600, a psychological level and key resistance (approximately 110 pips gain).
Alternative Scenario: Bearish Continuation
If the price fails to surpass the 1.0490 resistance and drops below 1.0475, a retest of the support at 1.0450 is probable.
Possible Sell : Close below 1.0453, targeting 1.0430 or lower.
In Summary
The primary scenario indicates a bullish outlook if EUR/USD breaks and holds above 1.0490, with potential targets at 1.0560 and 1.0600. However, traders should keep an eye on price behavior at the resistance level, as a rejection may trigger renewed selling pressure.
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EURUSD_1D&1W_SellAnalysis and review of the economy and the Eurodollar chart Elliott wave analysis style Mid-term and long-term time frames The euro is in a downward trend. Trading position is from sell to buy. In the long term, the market has entered a large ABC correction after completing five rising waves, which is currently in wave C. Wave C consists of five downward waves, which is currently on the way down as wave 5. The main resistance and ceiling of wave 4 is 1.06100 The targets and support numbers are 1.04070 and 1.02020 respectively, and the last target and support number is 1.00000.
Euro zone is not in good condition according to data chart conditions
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 106.70. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 106.70. On the 4-hour chart, DXY is testing a resistance TVC:DXY zone near 107.00–107.13, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior move. If this level is breached, the next target could be 107.50 or higher, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. However, failure to break above this resistance could result in a pullback, with support seen at 106.10, followed by the 105.63–105.78 range.
In summary, DXY is at a critical juncture. A breakout above its resistance would likely fuel further bullish momentum, while a rejection may see it revert to lower support levels.
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 11, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD lost around 0.2% on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive day and hitting 1.0500 again, as the euro's bullish near-term recovery comes to naught. Ahead of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure due for release on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting on Thursday, traders once again adopted a cautious stance.
Wednesday's CPI inflation index will be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, U.S. CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%.
Traders estimate the probability of the last quarter-point rate cut this year at 85%.
The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, and investors are widely expected to get another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is forecast to be cut to 3.15% from 3.4% and the ECB deposit rate is forecast to fall to 3.0% from 3.25%.
Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0480, trading mainly with Sell orders
EUR/USD: Market Anticipation Ahead of Key Economic ReportsAs the London trading session unfolds on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is hovering around the 1.0580 mark. Investors are gearing up for significant economic events this week, including the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, set to be released on Wednesday. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, making this week crucial for market participants seeking insights into future monetary policy shifts.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has shown a lack of substantial movement over the past week, remaining firmly below the 1.0600 resistance level. Traders are closely watching how the currency pair interacts with this barrier, as it could dictate the next direction for the market.
With speculation surrounding a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, Wednesday's inflation figures may be the crucial factor influencing the Fed's decision. Analysts predict that the annual consumer price inflation will slightly increase to 2.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.6% in October. Moreover, the core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3% year-over-year.
Given the current landscape, our strategy is to remain on the sidelines as we await the CPI data on Wednesday and the Unemployment Claims report on Thursday. While our overall bias leans bearish, we believe it is prudent to refrain from taking any positions until the price potentially approaches a significant demand zone. This approach allows for a more informed entry that aligns with market developments.
In summary, the EUR/USD is at a critical juncture as investors anticipate key economic reports that could have lasting effects on the currency pair's trajectory. With the market sentiment leaning toward caution, all eyes will be on the data releases this week.
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EUR/USD Short term short to long idea pending...This week, my focus for EUR/USD is on the supply zone near 1.05800. I anticipate a reaction from this level, making it a key area for potential sells at the start of the week. Following this initial move, I expect a bullish rally to develop midweek.
If the price drops to 1.05200, aligning with my 11-hour demand zone, I’ll shift my focus to potential buys. After receiving valid lower-timeframe confirmations, I plan to target the nearest liquidity pool to the upside as the price resumes its bullish trend.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
Shift in Market Character: Price has shown signs of a downside reversal, suggesting a potential sell-off.
Unmitigated Supply Zone: A clean 2-hour supply zone remains untapped.
Liquidity Below: There’s significant liquidity to the downside that price may target.
Trend Recalibration: Despite the overall bullish trend, a pullback is necessary for continuation.
Note: If the supply zone at 1.05800 fails to hold, it will further confirm bullish momentum. In this case, I’ll wait for a nearby demand zone to form, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the move to the upside. Patience will be key in this scenario.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
EUR/USD Remains Cautious: Traders Await US Payrolls DataThe EUR/USD currency pair remains cautious as it trades below the 1.0600 level during the European session on Friday, just shy of a previous resistance zone. The US Dollar is maintaining its stability, supported by profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite among investors. Market participants are hesitant to commit to new positions ahead of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The day's events are significant and will likely influence the direction of the DXY index as we approach the new week.
From a technical perspective, the price remains under the 1.0600 resistance level. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in retailer positioning towards a bullish sentiment, while non-commercial traders continue to display a bearish outlook.
Currently, we are refraining from taking any positions. However, we maintain a bearish bias and anticipate a potential decline that could retest the 1.0400 zone or even extend lower.
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