Asset Managers are looking at IBIT - Bitcoin thoughts - May 2024Sentiment seems to be that the cycle top is in. I disagree. The bitcoin ETFs are now opening up Bitcoin exposure to hedge funds and asset managers managing trillions of dollars, You have to ask yourself at this point, what is the likely hood that bitcoin has topped before the halving and now ETFs have opened the flood gates. I think very unlikely the bull market ends here.
NASDAQ:IBIT
ETF
State of Wisconsin Invests in Spot BTC ETFs
BTC, ETH jump after inflation eases: The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.3% in April, ending three consecutive months of elevated inflation readings and lifting hopes of a rate cut later this year. Bitcoin and ether prices rallied 7.6% and 5.3% Wednesday.
Roaring Kitty returns, sending meme coin soaring: Vince Gill, the meme stock leader who rose to fame in 2021 under the pseudonym “Roaring Kitty,” announced his return on Twitter/X on Monday. Shares of Gamestop and AMC soared the next two days before retreating. But one meme coin reaped the benefits.
US Senate overrules SEC: The US Senate voted 60-38 on Thursday to override an SEC rule that requires crypto custodians to treat customer assets as liabilities. But President Joe Biden is expected to veto the measure, and the US House has work to do to get the two-thirds majority needed to override the veto.
Wisconsin becomes BTC Bull: The State of Wisconsin Investment Board revealed in a filing Tuesday that it had amassed roughly $162 million worth of shares in spot BTC ETFs with BlackRock and Grayscale. It marked the first time a state pension fund publicly declared an ownership stake in spot BTC ETFs.
US Senators upset over crypto mixer treatment: US Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) have sent a letter to the US (DOJ) contesting a recent decision from FinCEN that said it would treat crypto mixers as money transmitters, opening up software developers to potential charges.
New Vanguard CEO not rushing into crypto ETFs: Vanguard named Salim Ramji as its new CEO on Tuesday, raising speculation that the former BlackRock executive would introduce a Vanguard spot BTC ETF after Ramji oversaw the launch of iShares Bitcoin Trust at BlackRock. However, Ramji cast doubt on launching a Vanguard spot BTC ETF in an interview with Barron’s.
🎮 Topic of the Week: What is a short squeeze? The GameStop saga
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SPY S&P500 etf Bearish DivergenceIf you haven't already purchased SPY after the 2023 forecast: forecast:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/idea/l6U1M9dJ/
then it's important to be aware that there's a significant bearish divergence in the RSI of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, which initiated at $469.
Anticipating a technical retracement to $495, given its prolonged period of being overbought!
Bitcoin $Btc #Btc KISS (keep it simple stup*d)
Your job is really so much easier than you think right now. Just buy the lines and sell the boxes and you'll be fine over the next few months.
IF you get scared and feel your bag is bigger than you are comfortable with on the way down the begin using the same lines above as you get below them to trim on the way back up just enough to stay within your comfort levels.
In the BIGGER picture i think this cycle is far from over and there will be plenty more opportunities along the way to make $ buying the lows and selling the highs.
#Bitcoin
Has the Bitcoin Market Become More Manipulated After ETFs? The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in late 2023 undoubtedly marked a turning point for the cryptocurrency. However, with this institutional influx, concerns regarding increased market manipulation have also surfaced. Let's delve into whether these concerns hold water and what the future might hold for Bitcoin's volatility.
Pre-ETF Era: A Wild West of Wash Trading
Market manipulation in Bitcoin wasn't exactly a new phenomenon before ETFs. Wash trading, a tactic where investors buy and sell the same asset repeatedly to inflate its trading volume, was a prevalent concern. This created an illusion of high demand, enticing others to invest and driving prices up artificially. Mark Cuban, a prominent crypto investor, even predicted wash trading as the "next possible implosion" for the industry in early 2023 .
The Double-Edged Sword of Institutional Investors
The arrival of big players with the ETF has undeniably brought more regulation and scrutiny to the market. This, in theory, should deter blatant manipulation tactics. However, the sheer volume these institutions trade with can also influence prices significantly. The question isn't whether they manipulate, but rather how their trading strategies might unintentionally impact market behavior.
A Glimpse into the Recent Controversy
A recent Wall Street Journal report alleging that Binance, a major cryptocurrency exchange, fired an investigator uncovering market manipulation by a VIP client reignited concerns . This incident highlights the potential conflicts that can arise when profit margins clash with regulatory compliance.
So, Has Manipulation Increased?
The answer is complex. While blatant wash trading might be less prevalent, the impact of institutional trading volume and potential conflicts within exchanges are new considerations. It's likely that the nature of manipulation has evolved, becoming more subtle and potentially harder to detect.
A Future of Stability or Stagnation?
The influx of institutional investors could indeed lead to a more stable Bitcoin market, mirroring traditional stock indices. This would be a far cry from the explosive, volatile growth Bitcoin has seen in the past. However, this stability might also come at the cost of reduced returns for investors hoping for another Bitcoin boom.
The Long Hodler's Perspective
As a large language model, I can't claim to be a "hodler" (long-term Bitcoin holder). However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin has weathered similar periods of regulation and scrutiny before. The key takeaway is that despite potential manipulation, Bitcoin's underlying technology and its core value proposition as a decentralized currency still hold significant appeal.
The Road Ahead
The future of Bitcoin manipulation hinges on two key factors:
1. Regulatory Strength: Stronger regulations with clear guidelines and robust enforcement mechanisms are crucial to deter future manipulation attempts.
2. Transparency on Exchanges: Exchanges need to be more transparent about their trading practices and address potential conflicts of interest.
Conclusion
Whether Bitcoin morphs into a stable, institutionalized asset or maintains its volatile character remains to be seen. However, the fight against manipulation, regardless of its form, will be critical in ensuring a fair and healthy Bitcoin market for all participants.
BTC - Bearish Short-Term Until...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 After breaking below the last major low in red, BTC has been bearish from a short-term perspective trading within the falling channel marked in red.
🏹 For the bulls to regain control, a break above the upper red trendline is needed.
Meanwhile, further bearish movement towards the lower bound of the red channel would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
CQQQ May 7th TTR UpdateTheTradersRoom is very long #CQQQ from much lower levels and looking to hold this one till at least we see 2-3x gains on it.
We have entered it first days of Feb and very happy with the result.
China is recovering and Im expecting a perfect inversion alignment to QQQ here into the end of the next year.
It was a clear breakout from the downtrend channel last week. If the broken channel gets tested from above, it will be a perfect opportunity to add into our long position.
PILL 3x Leverage Medical/ Pharma ETF for swing LONGAMEX:PILL
On the 4H Chart, current market price is sitting on the support
of order blocks and the EMA200, while in an uptend from
a double bottom in the sprint. It is moving into the high volume
area of the voluxme profile. For the swing trade, the stop loss is
$0.10 below the EMA200 while the targets are marked
based on a combination of the horizontal resistances of
prior swing pivots along with sell order blocks and
the structure of the volume profile. Accordingly, this
trade risks $0.60 for about $ 4 to $ 5 of upside making for
an excellent swing setup especially since healthcare, medical
and pharmacueticals are known to be recession resilient and
ETFs are inherently diversified making leveraging a risk probably
worth taking.
🔥 Bitcoin Blood In The Streets: A Great Buy Opportunity?""The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
A quote that most traders are familiar with. It basically means to buy assets during periods of weakness.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a very volatily bearish period.
With a daily RSI sitting around 32 points, it takes just one red day for the daily RSI to hit oversold levels. During strong long-term bullish trends, buying when the daily RSI hits oversold generally indicates a great time to buy.
Seeing that the overall trend has been bullish for almost 1.5 years, I wouldn't pass on a potential swing-trade. Chances are that this is the final dip before 100k.
Do I know for sure? No. However, it's a bet I'm willing to take.
My overall perception is that there's likely more selling ahead from this point, but we cannot ignore statistical data.
You buying the dip? Interested to hear your thoughts.
Bitcoin to 50k... BET or FACT?I have reasons to believe in a correction of at least 20%.
1. Market euphoria.
2. ATH.
3. 78.6 retracement after the gigantic fall.
4. Temporary massive sale.
Personally, I think it is not a good idea to sell. It is best to wait for better prices to buy.
Below 55k, its a good idea to BUY.
Take care.
JB.-
🔥 Bitcoin Copying 2019? Massive Dump PotentialIn this analysis I want to discuss the possibility that Bitcoin is copying the 2019 mid-cycle bull-market and the following bear market.
I don't see this as the most likely scenario, but it's still a scenario that can happen one way or another.
As seen on the chart, Bitcoin saw a massive ~370% gain after bottoming in November 2022. A similar gain was achieved back in 2019, which ended up in a ~70% drop. I'm aware that the majority of the drop was caused by the COVID-dump. But, since the post-COVID bull-market also followed previous market patterns I don't see why we can't have a 70% dump again.
A 70% dump from the 74k top would result in a move towards ~22k, a major hit for crypto as a whole.
Furthermore, this would strongly diminish the probability of BTC topping out in Q4-2024 as mentioned in my analysis below.
Maybe this cycle is going to be different all together? We reached a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever, so chances are that the cycle-theory is dead and that BTC is behaving as a highly volatile stock?
Interested to hear your thoughts!
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surge – A Bullish Signal for Market Adoption?Welcome to a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin market! As we witness the launch of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, including giants like Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Franklin Templeton's EZBC, the landscape of cryptocurrency investing is evolving before our eyes.
First-day volumes paint a promising picture, with funds that 'Buy Bitcoin' directly, such as FBTC (Fidelity), BITB (Bitwise), and EZBC (Franklin Templeton), accounting for a significant 14.06% of the total volume. This direct investment approach is injecting fresh capital into the spot Bitcoin market, hinting at a bullish outlook for Bitcoin adoption and price movement.
Let's not overlook the powerhouses that follow Bitcoin's price through derivatives, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and Grayscale's GBTC, which command an impressive 85.94% of the total volume. While they may not directly purchase Bitcoin, their market presence can't be ignored, as they reflect growing investor interest and add to the overall Bitcoin market depth.
With the potential move to a T+1 settlement cycle, the market could see increased efficiency and a more immediate impact from ETF inflows. This could be particularly beneficial for ETFs purchasing Bitcoin, as it allows for quicker capital deployment, enhancing the responsiveness of the market to new investments.
But let's temper our optimism with a dose of reality. It's crucial to remember that not all ETFs are created equal – some provide direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements, while others offer a more nuanced approach through futures and other financial instruments. The true impact of these funds will unfold with time, as we closely monitor their influence on market demand and price dynamics.
In essence, the influx of new Bitcoin ETFs could be a harbinger of increased adoption and integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial world. This is a bullish sign for those of us optimistic about the future of digital assets.
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this exciting phase of market growth. And remember, despite the complexities, the introduction of these ETFs is a step toward broader acceptance and a testament to Bitcoin's enduring allure.
So..still very Bullish news... still very Good news!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
🔥 Bitcoin Going Nowhere: Waiting For Clarity!Bitcoin's has practically not moved over the last two weeks. Zooming out, BTC has been trading within a bearish channel since the start of March.
I've made several bearish posts before, where I expected the halving to turn out to be a sell-the-news event. Thus far, that expectation has not really played out yet, which is good for the bulls.
We cannot deny the fact that the long-term trend is still bullish, with a bull-flag scenario being a reasonably possible outcome.
Still, there's nothing to say as long as BTC trades within the supports and resistances drawn on the chart. Market has been incredibly choppy, so the only ones that are making consistent money are the market makers.
I'm waiting for clarity.
🔥 Comparing Bitcoin's Price After The Halving: Massive Pump! In this analysis I want to take another look at Bitcoin's performance after the halving.
As known by now, Bitcoin halvings have always led to a massive pump in Bitcoin's price. My expectation is that this halving won't be any different.
Yes, I've mentioned a couple of times that I see a decent probability for the halving to be a sell-the-news event, since we made a new all-time high before the halving for the first time ever. Second halving as an example.
However, Bitcoin's 1 year outlook is still looking extremely bullish. I expect that we're going to reach 100k this year, maybe even 150k with some luck.
It's too early to tell where Bitcoin will top out. You can check my most accurate prediction below:
Pump or dump? Share your thoughts 🙏
GBTC Is Looking For A Bullish Resumption After Bitcoin HalvingWe talked about bullish GrayScale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) already back on February 28th with a weekly free chart, where we mentioned and highlighted an ongoing five-wave impulsive bullish cycle.
Well, as we actually expected, after GBTC reached all-time highs, we can see a projected slow down that looks like a wave (4) correction.
A correction actually occurred a month before the Bitcoin halving and finished right before the Bitcoin halving. And, as you can see now in a closer, 4-hour chart after the halving, GBTC is bouncing from projected support after a completed A-B-C correction in wave (4), so wave (5) is now in progress, which can easily lift Bitcoin price back to highs as well.
Daily Consolidation Potential Reboundsince the weekly reversal in favor of bears for AMEX:MJ etf and cannabis stocks, the daily bounce has turned back downward, and is approaching recent multi week lows.
this set of oscilatiry trend regularity indicators show when there is potential for retracement in the opposite direction should these levels hold.
🔥 Bitcoin: Waiting For The Ultimate Trigger To BuyIn this analysis we're going to discuss a very simple trading strategy that will suit your long-term portfolio: buying into extreme weakness.
As seen on the chart, Bitcoin has only been oversold on the daily RSI on three occassions over the past 1.5 years. Every single time this occured it proved to be an extremely profitable entry point.
With Bitcoin seeing quite a sell-off and the halving coming up, I'm going to wait patiently for the RSI to hit daily oversold. I imagine another few red days and the RSI should be <30.
Have some funds ready, because this entry might be the last time you can buy BTC during weakness for a long time.