ETF
$JETS - Recovery of the Airline Industry“The U.S. Global Jets ETF $JETS provides investors access to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world.”
TECHNICALS
$JETS is currently trading at $25.50 which is 13% below their most recent high of $28.98 which was made in March 2021. The stock has been in an upward trend since October 2020 as a result of increased vaccinations around the world and strong guidance. As seen on the chart, between 2017 and early 2020 $JETS established a strong support zone between $27.50 and $28.50. With travel expected to increase into the summer and vaccinations continue to be rolled out, $JETS can potentially see a 10% move and settle between $27.50 and $28.50 in the coming months.
RECOVERY
Based on their most recent earnings reports, airline companies such as $AAL, $DAL, $LUV, and $UAL have all posted that their revenue is up 100% or more from their pandemic lows. Although revenue is sitting around 50% of pre-pandemic levels, the growing number suggests that the industry is recovering.
RISKS
The greatest risk to the travel industry at the moment is the massive increase in covid cases in India and the emergence of the new covid variant B.1.617. Although much more information is needed, the new variant appears to be spreading at a much faster rate than before and it is unknown if vaccines will help prevent the contraction of the virus.
Anthony, OptionsSwing Analyst
ARKK ETF Big gains in coming monthsARKK ETF is a growth ETF created by Cathie Woods that has grown around 500% since its release in 2015. ARKK ETF stocks are a conglomerate of growth stocks that are identified by the analysts at ARK, the stocks are carefully picked out depending on their ability to produce profits. Since ARK holds a diverse portfolio in a wide range of stocks, it usually follows in the market in terms of price action, if the market is bullish, ARK will most likely be bullish, and vice versa.
I have put together a range of indicators and drawing tools that could help us analyse and even predict the future price movement of the ETF. Using the weekly chart, it is shown that the most recent candlestick has slightly bounced off the 50 MA, which gives us a bullish sentiment on the future price of this asset. P.S note that the most recent candlestick still has 3 days of price action as of the 11th of May, 2021. This means that a lot could change in the candlestick before it is completed.
The next indicator is the Relative Strength Index or the RSI, it is an indicator that helps identify whether the stock is overbought or oversold, this can help determine if a stock is bound to fall or rise in price in the future. We can spot that the RSI indicator is nearing the oversold point meaning that the price could soon start to increase.
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator is still showing a bullish trend and has slightly slowed ever since the price of the ETF dropped remarkably by about half its value at peak.
The asset as of May 11th 2021 is trading at $106.09 per share, the intrinsic value of this asset is said to be $97.6, this means that it is still overpriced and we could see a slight decrease under the line of intrinsic value, which could be a strategic and smart buy point.
There are many more indicators that I have not discussed, but the range of Indicators that I picked from are wide enough to give the reader a good insight of how this asset will trade in the future. Like the post and follow me if you have enjoyed this analysis, much more coming soon.
TraderTH
A Study of Sector Rotation during year 2021 [Market Rotation]Sector Rotation Analysis starting from Jan 2021
While 2020 was a wonderful year for many investors, 2021 has been riddled with changes in the stock market thus far. In this analysis, I compared multiple ETFs that track different specific sectors in the market in order to visualize these changes. The periods and commentary are broken down month by month with the sector leaders and losers of that month.
A little about Sector Rotation:
Sector rotation in the market tends to follow the stages of business cycle—recovery, expansion, slowdown and recession.
Recovery
During the Recovery stage, feds will keep interest rates low while long-term rates rise. The material, financial, and industrial sector tends to take the lead during this phase.
Expansion
During the Expansion stage, the economy will expand at a stable pace while fed take a neutral stance on rates but credit conditions will ease. Again, long-term rates increase. Financials, Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors will excel in this phase.
Slowdown
During the Slowdown phase, the economy peaks then starts to stagnate as inflation grows. At this point, credit conditions will be strained and stocks may fall. The sectors that do best in this phase are Consumer Staples, Energy, Health Care, and Materials.
Recession
During a Recession, the economy shrinks and feds cut rates. Long term rates decrease. Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Staples will do best in this phase.
2021 Sector Rotation Commentary
During January , we tested all-time highs for the most part. Several events that occurred were the Senate run-off, the inauguration of President Joe Biden, and even the GameStop Frenzy. In world news, the number of Covid-19 cases were spiking and investors were optimistic that the vaccine would become available and help open the economy back up. Chair of the Federal Reserve, Powell pledged that the central bank will leave interest rates near zero. During early January, Energy was king of the sectors but mid-way through was overthrown by Real Estate and Communication Services. The sector losers of January were Energy, Financials, and Materials.
February kicked off Earnings Season and we saw higher-than-anticipated numbers with a lot of companies beating Earnings expectations. One of the main events that occurred during February was the Treasury Yield started increasing significantly, this sent growth and tech stocks plummeting down (as they would be impacted more than established companies with well-balanced sheets and already sustainable revenue). A lot of low to mid cap stocks were significantly impacted by the rising yields and even up to today as I am writing this, still has not recover fully ($FUBO, $NIO, $PLTR, $SPCE). We saw a rotation from growth to value stocks. The Energy sector took reign over Real Estate while Communication Services rose steadily too. The sector losers of February were Materials, Health Care, and Consumer Staples sectors.
Early March was the bottom of the sell-off that started towards the middle of February. Some notable events were the Suez Canal mishap, several banks getting slapped with margin calls worth Millions of dollars due to exposure from Archegos, and the $1.9 Stimulus was finally passed! The stimulus benefited the banks, airlines, and other consumer discretionary stocks so we saw a slight rally in cause of the news. Real Estate, Energy, and Finance continue to lead amongst the other sectors while Technology, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare continued to remain sector losers.
It's Early May now and the market is starting to look both frothy and toppy. You can see a slight decline/curve from all sectors in the most recent period. Earnings Season is still going on but we saw many companies that met or exceeded expectations, sell-off after reporting earnings. We have also seen an increase in the VIX (volatility indicator) as a reaction on several news such as President Joe Biden's proposal to increase tax on corporations as well as the wealthy. The sector leaders today are (1) Energy, (2) Financials, and (3) Real Estate while the Sector Loser goes to Technology.
I hope this analysis is able to give insight on the current market in regards to different sectors. If there's one thing that is apparent in this analysis, it is that the rotation from growth stocks to value stocks continue. While Tech stocks were a favorite during the Covid-19 lockdown, Tech has been overthrown in favor of everyday necessities like Energy and Financials this year.
-Natalie Garces, OptionsSwing Analyst
PVGThe green long-term channel started to appear around mid of July of 2016 by price hitting the top of the channel!
During the Covid19 Pandemic we observed a fake breakout but everything gone normal after first months!
15th of Sep the price touch top of the channel and started to fall! the red bearish trendline is broken and we are currently in pullback to the Broken trend line!
reactions to mid of the channel is not rare but they are not strong!
considering volumes, it seems market is waiting for 5th of may to observe the earnings and lower volumes in lower prices is not a good news for buyers!
If we are in the second Elliot wave we wont goes up more than the 11.73, but only "time" could clarify the best next move!
Right now for those owning some shares, my suggestion is to be a holder! until the Short-term channel is perfectly broken down or the long-term channel is touched you, then better to sell!
If you don't have any shares and you are a risk taker! you can buy tomorrow or right now!
and if your strategy is safer wait to see if the price break the 11.73 level perfectly or not!
AGQ- Time to push higherPlease check my previous ideas on AGQ, why I like to invest in it and the potential there is.
AGQ is a 2x leveraged Silver ETF. Instead of utilizing swaps like most geared funds, AGQ invests in silver futures and forward contracts—this also means the fund is structured as a commodities pool, so it will distribute a K-1 form.
Since I expect silver to go higher, holding some AGQ shares is another way to invest /speculate on the price of silver rising.
the FXPROFESSOR
VAPX Daily - Successful break and re-testI identified the similar bull flag pattern on VHYL and VGER and I started buying in around 22 (red zone) in anticipation that VAPX would follow suit. So far so good and we have got our confirmed break and re-test. I will use this confirmation to add to my position further - targeting 24.18
VUKE Daily - trimmed back to u/weight waiting for better levelsI had used the green accumulation zone to add to my positions - after a successful run I have taken profit on the majority of holdings leaving me net underweight. I am hoping for a dip back to the red zone where I will look to start re-entering.