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S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib. Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib). Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500: Rebounding on the 1D MA100.The S&P500 is recovering Friday's lost ground and turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.331, MACD = -24.550, ADX = 22.750). Even though it needs to overcome the Resistance pressure of the 1D MA50, this rebound gives a very positive note as it is being performed on the 1D MA100, which last time was a bounce point on April 19 2024. If the August 5th rebound was a HL of a Bullish Megaphone, then now the index is starting phase 2 of the new Bullish Wave, much like the 1D MA50 bounce of May 31st. We are bullish with TP = 6000, on the -0.618 Fibonacci level for a HH. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
My Full ES/SPX Plan for Tmmr Sept. 6thPlan for Friday: **Supports:** 5512, 5502, 5494 (major), 5482 (major), 5476, 5474 (major), 5462, 5455 (major), 5450, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5428, 5423, 5414 (major). **Levels to Bid:** - I am still holding my 10% long runner from the **5493** knife carch idea that played out this afternoon. I have added long exposure around **5513**, risking 25% of today’s profits. - We are currently in a new chop range between **5493 and 5554**, with **5519** acting as a key middle point. This has been tested 14 times since yesterday, so it’s no longer fresh but still worth watching for failed breakdowns as always. - **5494** is next major support below, though it’s risky to buy directly after today’s test, especially with the NFP report coming tomorrow morning. Ideally, I'd like to see it flush and recover, perhaps testing **5482** or **5474** before reclaiming for a safer entry. - Below **5492**, I consider this "knife catch mode," meaning supports will likely fail, so I’d be careful with longs, snd treat with smaller size than normal . However, **5455** and **5438** are key levels to watch for buy reactions if price starts flushing down aggressively. **Resistances:** 5519 (major), 5524, 5528-30 (major), 5537, 5543, 5554 (major), 5560, 5566, 5574, 5577, 5582-86 (major), 5593, 5598, 5605 (major). - With NFP tomorrow, we could see a violent rally, and I am not interested in shorting strength in ES. For those looking to short, **5582-86** is a logical spot, where we broke down earlier this week and have yet to backtest. **Buyers Case Tomorrow:** - Currently, ES has an active failed breakdown present. The key is for **5492** to hold, allowing buyers to defend this level and potentially reclaim **5519**. - The path forward for buyers would then be targeting **5528-30**, **5554**, and eventually **5582-86** for a dip and push toward **5630**. **Sellers Case Tomorrow:** - Begins with the failure of **5493**. As i mentioned often though, breakdown trades below this a support are tricky, advanced setups, as most breakdowns trap (80% fail), and these are low-win-rate, high-risk/reward trades. So keep that in mind. Properly reading volume is the key to these type of trades. - Generally, I’d want to see 5493 tested/one more failed breakdown of the zone (ideally down to 5483 that recovers). After this, I’d consider short perhaps 5486. Level to level profit takes, as always, but we likely get down to 5455. In general, We have gone nowhere for two days. My general lean is that 5493 and 5519 remain critical levels. As long as we can keep defending 5493, ES is still in relief bounce/squeeze mode. This would work us up the levels to 5528-30, 5554, then on to 5582-86. If 5492 fails, bulls dropped the ball on this and we need to take another leg down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P500 The Bull Cycle is still far from over!Six months ago while the market was undecided about whether or not the S&P500 (SPX) rally would continue, we presented a very useful multi-year chart on the 1M time-frame (February 27, see chart below), where we called for an extension of the uptrend, claiming confidently that the 'Bull Cycle is far from over': As you can see those who bought without fear have enjoyed so far more than +15% gains. What's even more impressive is the massive bullish reversal of the August candle, that managed to close the month in green, despite the early aggressive sell-off. This is a strong sign that the rally is far from over, but it's not the only one. The key here, and constitutes our main modification relative to the chart 6 months ago, is that the most accurate sell signal on a cyclical basis has been historically given after the 1M RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought barrier and posts Lower Highs. This signal has had 100% accuracy in the past 10 years, effectively projecting the 2015, 2018 and 2022 corrections. The 1M RSI also has a Channel Down Resistance to consider but the Lower Highs signal should be top priority for investors to start selling. As a result, we expect the index to surpass the 6000 mark and even approach 6500, before we consider a cyclical selling sequence again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis. As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again. We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 Why the volatility shouldn't scare you.Five months ago (March 21, see chart below), we published a comparison analysis on the S&P500 index (SPX), warning of a medium-term correction but at the same time setting a long-term 6500 Target: As you can see, the fractal comparison of March 2024 with March 2017 worked very well and this is why the recent July - August correction shouldn't scare you. The 2022 - 2024 sequence continues to replicate to a solid degree the 2015 - 2017 period, which after holding both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing and bouncing on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, it rallied towards the 3.0 Fib. Check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences are within the two fractals. At the moment we are just past the RSI Double Bottom formation (August 14 2017 and August 05 2024 respectively), which should initiate a rally that will peak deep into the overbought zone in Q1 2025. As a result, our long-term Target of 6500 is intact, and as the title says, the volatility shouldn't scare you and make you diverge from the long-term goal and perspective. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
ES/SPX Levels & Targets Aug 26thOn Thursday/Friday, I called the 5588-93 buy zone with a target of 5653, and ES has hit it four times since Friday morning. As of now: No changes—I'm still holding my runners from Friday mentioned in plan. The 5642 level, which has been tested twice but remains weak, is the key support. If we can hold above that, I’m eyeing 5672 and the 5687-90 range as potential targets. If 5642 breaks, I’ll look to sell around 5630. Full Plan for today was posted Sunday Morning
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg