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Celebrating the Lowest High Inflation?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/13 With the post-CPI spike and the subsequent early session market action, our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market's radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for TUE. 06/13: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4367, 4348, 4340, 4311, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4364, 4354, 4334, 4308, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4345 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4357 or 4326. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:26am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500, 6/13/23For Tuesday, 4348.75 can contain intraday weakness, 4385.00 in reach and able to contain intraday strength.   Pushing/opening above 4385.00 allows 4409.00 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the targeted 4430.50 formation tomorrow, where the market can top out into July activity.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4348.75 signals 4328.75, able to contain session weakness.   Closing today below 4328.75 indicates 4263.75 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4190.25 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
ES EOD UpdateWell, I figured out the issue with the contract change, there is an option to adjust for that in the menu. So now my indicators look like they are correct. In any case, RSI is way overbought with MFI divergence, probably a pump for CPI numbers before market open tomorrow. Not really sure why, lol, the Fed won't cut rates any time soon. If futures go into Wed overbought, that's actually bad news for bulls. Regardless, gotta pay attention to those news events, totally forgot about CPI release.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
S&P500 extending the Channel Up to 4390.The S&P500 index / US500 is extending the uptrend after crossing today over the 4330 Resistance of August 16th 2022. The May Channel Up pattern may be transitioning to a more aggressive June Channel Up pattern supported by the 4hour MA50. Our long term target is still a +8.90% rise from the last bottom on March 13th but are slightly downgrading it to 4390. The 4hour RSI is also inside a Channel Up, with the current rise being similar to May 24th/28th. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
1
Trends maxed to upside; New Contract Trends; Overbought statusSo I have some other catching up to do, but currently it appears the ESU contract is now here, and as I've said over the last few weeks, I felt that the ESM contract was clearly going to be an upward moving contract, and that any leg down would be over the next contract. I continue to comment that with the major price gains on major tech stocks, if investors don't sell these stocks they haven't capitalized on the movement up... so there needs to be a sell off to capitalize on profit. Now that the next contract is here, because of the previous moves it is starting at 100 MFI overbought status on a weekly basis. So overall, while I'm not in bear mode, I see the next 3 months at least being relatively flat, with a leg down first before we decide if we come back up here or not. I think we will see the Fed monetary policy begin to hit the economy over the next 3 months, and additionally many major investment companies are likely to move away from active monitoring like they do most summers and retail investors could drive the prices down since there is a predominantly short position going into this summer period. Trends into today (Only /ESU23 contract); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4363 Uptrend (6/12/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None The Long Position; Basically we can keep running the narrative that buy any minor dip. I'd say if things dip down to 4300 there would likely be a pullback up briefly, but I am trading with the expectation we need a leg down. The Short Position; Since we are maxed out to the uptrend, I see anything above 4363 as a entry point to the downside. I obviously believe this enough that I am actively short on this trade. Economic Data; Nothing today really. However, CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Wednesday, FOMC rate and statement is Wednesday, and jobs numbers on Thursday. Overall it should be an active week. I expect Powell it come across slightly hawkish to try and calm the market, since the massive jump in the market could ultimately undermine some of the monetary tightening they are attempting to do here. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bullish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Inflation, Yields, and FOMC in Focus This WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 06/12 The precarious rally of the last month has been baffling many with its lack of the breadth - the rally concentrated in just a handful of big-tech names. In the last trading plan - published on Thursday, 06/08 - we wrote: "If the rally does not dissipate this week, then it could be indicative of yet another leg up that could obliterate the shorts". The rally did NOT dissipate last week, but rather accelerated. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for MON. 06/12: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4323, 4305, or 4275 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4320, 4302, 4297, 4290, or 4270 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4314, 4299, or 4293. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500: Closing over 4,330 can extend this relentless rally.The S&P500 index broke over Channel Up 1, which was the primary pattern since November 3rd 2022, and is only a few point away before testing R1 (4,330) for the first time since August 16th. The 1D technicals are on excellent bullish levels (RSI = 66.947, MACD = 39.580, ADX = 22.834) and a candle close over R1, can be enough to extend this relentless rally of the last 3 months. We will take the breakout and aim at R2 (TP = 4,500). If rejected on R1 though, we will sell on the short term and buy near the 1D MA50 again (same bullish target). A closing under the 1D MA50, will be a sell trigger and we will target the S1 (TP = 4,045). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
10
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEK Price broke 4303. If this becomes support, next target level will likely be 4584. Scenario Planning: 1) Long on support at 4303 2) If false break, short on rejection at recent high / lower high. Note: Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for long trend to remain intact. Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness Daily: Low(er) vol up bar S>D close off high = NTC weakness *NTC = Non Trend Changing Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4584-4525 4303 4150 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For educational purpose only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
S&P 500, 6/12/23The 4203.75 long-term resistance area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4578.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4425.50 can contain weekly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4425.50 indicating 4578.50 within 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain buying on a monthly basis and the formation settle above for accelerating the 4808.25 longer-term objective to within 2 - 3 months.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4203.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Monday, 4346.00 can contain intraday weakness, 4385.00 in reach and able to contain intraday strength.   Pushing/opening above 4385.00 allows 4409.00 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the targeted 4425.50 formation the very next day, where the market can top out into July activity.   Downside Monday, breaking/opening below 4346.00 signals 4309.25, able to contain session weakness.   Closing today below 4309.25 indicates 4263.75 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4192.00 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
$SPY bull market? Nope. Here are the important levels from here.There are many people who have turned long term bullish because they've been surprised by the recent move to the upside. And while my short term bias did turn bullish on Jan 4th, I think we're closer to a local top than we are to seeing a new bull market commence from here. I came across this old chart today-- it has to be one I created over a year ago, and what was interesting to me when I pulled it up is the levels that were marked off back then have all been tagged as support or resistance since the bear market has begun. $428, $358, $322 and $287. I added a couple extra levels onto the chart $276 and $421 as potential support/resistances and/or to account for wicks. That said, I think these will end up being important levels on the way down for continuation of the bearish trend. I am not one to buy into the idea that we are in a new bull market. In fact, I think quite the opposite. The worst of the bear market is yet to come. I think the two levels above from here $421 and $428 will end up being important resistance levels. And if we can't close above those levels, then we'll end up seeing continuation to the downside. I think we'll end up getting below $300 in the S&P to the lower support targets by September/Octoberish timeframe. I've marked off key dates to watch for changes in price action. Good luck trading this, I have a feeling that the market is going to get increasingly difficult to trade from here.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
4
resistance will fallThe S&P500 has worked its way up to a resistance area currently around 4300 points. Due to the price development and the current situation of the indicators, it is most likely to be assumed that the resistance will be overcome and the index will continue its upward movement to around 4600 points. Temporary setbacks could be considered as a buying opportunity. To signal a resilient move into a longer sustained move down, the US500 would need to break below the orange colored average in the chart above.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by alysta
S&P 500, 6/9/23For Friday, 4309.25 can contain session weakness, 4348.75 in reach and able to contain intraday strength, beyond which 4385.00 is attainable intraday and able to contain session strength.   Closing today above 4385.00 indicates 4419.00 within 3 - 5 days, rising weekly channel resistance able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested, possibly into later June.   Downside Friday, closing below 4309.25 indicates 4264.00 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4195.25 - 4212.00 long-term support within several days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis