ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 19thThe 5886 level remains a money magnet in ES. Yesterday, 5886 served as key support, setting up a relief bounce to the 5934 target. We held 5886 exactly and ran to target. Overnight, it held once again.
As of now: No changes. 5886 (weaker now) supports moves to 5911, 5922, and 5935+. If 5886 fails, selling could begin toward 5862.
Es1
The S&P 500 just hit me with a 'deja vous' - gains to follow?Once every so often I look at a chart and instantly get struck by a familiar pattern, which is exactly what happened today with the S&P 500 futures chart. And with asset managers firmly backing the ES1! futures market, I'm not on guard for a bounce form support. Just as long as Nvidia earnings allow.
MS.
ES levels and targets Nov 18thOn Thursday, sellers broke down the base built from Monday to Thursday at 5998, triggering shorts and hitting the 5885 target on Friday. Now, it’s staging its first relief pop before potentially heading lower.
As of now: As long as 5886-88 holds, a relief pop to 5910, 5917, and 5934 is possible. If 5886 fails, look for a dip to 5878, 5871, 5864.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Your Trading Plan Explained
S&P500 index is testing a recently broken daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, it turned into support.
To buy the market with a confirmation, pay attention to a double bottom
pattern on a 4H.
If the price breaks and closes above 5899, it will give us a strong bullish confirmation.
The market will go up at least to 5954 level then.
If the price drops lower and sets a new lower low, the setup will be invalid.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
S&P500 completed a 0.5 Fib correction. Strong buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) reached on Friday the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical correction that started after the price made a Higher High at the top of the 2-month Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been tested (and held) already on the day of the U.S. elections, so now we are technically still on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
As you can see, since the April 19 2024 bottom and the start of the even longer Bullish Megaphone pattern, every time a pull-back stopped within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range, the index resumed the bullish trend towards the -0.618 Fib extension. The 1D MACD with its Bullish and Bearish Crosses, is also illustrating this symmetry.
As a result, we believe that the current pull-back is over and we are now targeting 6210, which is within to potential -0.618 Fib targets.
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Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd.
The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish.
Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
nasdaq to 20k?!good evening,
---
consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom.
---
~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish.
~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud.
~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction .
~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear.
~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year.
~us10y, topped out.
~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets.
~fear is at all time high.
~retail short positions are at all time high.
~and i'm buying everything.
---
the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension.
---
ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here.
ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully.
✌
Trading Gameplan For Nov 18thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5886-88, 5864, 5843-46, 5828, 5806, 5796-5802, 5758, 5749, 5730.
• Minor: 5892, 5878, 5871, 5855, 5849, 5839, 5819, 5812, 5787, 5782, 5773, 5768.
Context and Strategy:
Friday’s session was a strong downside trend day (open-to-close selling) with limited support reactions. As we often see, sharp sell-offs like Friday are often followed by their counterpart: the short squeeze and the question of whether we’ll recover a significant portion of the decline shouldn't be asked. While the timing of such events is unpredictable (further downside is always possible), they typically happen when a major resistance level is reclaimed, which I’ll cover here. For now, with bears still holding control, any attempts to buy at support levels carry the high risk of trying to catch a falling knife, which i often talk about how risky those are alone. On a strong trend day like Friday when bears are in control, all supports - by definition of being a trend day to the downside - will fail. They may react, they may produce a quick level to level bounce, but typically they will generally all fail. This will remain true on Monday until we recover some major resistances. A failed breakdown of Friday’s low (5878) could spark a potential short squeeze, but once again, unless a significant resistance level is reclaimed, all longs should be treated with high caution.
The next support magnet below Friday’s lows is 5843-46, with 5828 and 5806 as deeper downside levels if selling persists. Patience is key, particularly in a downtrend context like this.
Key Levels:
1. Friday’s Low (5878): Critical for both bulls and bears. Watch for a potential flush below this level, ideally down to 5871, followed by a reclaim that could trigger a short squeeze.
2. 5886-88: Heavily traded on Friday and no longer fresh. Safer to wait for a failed breakdown or another deeper level to engage.
3. 5864: A possible bounce zone but still considered high-risk.
4. 5843-46: Strong support below. If selling accelerates, this level offers better odds for a reaction.
5. 5828 & 5806: Major levels for any extended sell.
Resistances:
• Major: 5907-10, 5945-50, 5961, 5980, 5998-6002, 6009, 6066, 6080-82, 6103, 6131, 6141, 6152.
• Minor: 5899, 5917, 5928, 5934, 5935, 5943, 5947, 5957, 5967, 5972, 5975, 5993, 6014, 6019, 6027, 6032, 6038, 6045, 6050, 6058, 6071, 6092.
Bull Case:
• Bulls need to reclaim 5907-10 to show any meaningful recovery effort. A reclaim here could set up a bounce toward 5948-50 or 5961 for a back-test.
• Ideal setup: A dip to 5871 or below early on, forming a failed breakdown of Friday’s low, followed by basing and a push back above 5907-10. This could trigger an easy short squeeze targeting higher major resistances.
• Without a reclaim of 5961, any upside remains corrective, and the "short the pop" sentiment is still in charge.
Bear Case:
• Bears remain in control and will likely defend resistances near 5907-10 or 5948-50 if price retraces. These are logical zones for fresh shorts to initiate.
• Continuation selling begins with a breakdown below 5878. Watch for traps, as 80% of breakdowns tend to fail. If there’s no meaningful recovery, selling could extend toward 5843-46 or 5828.
• Preferred short entry: A failed bounce near resistance (5948-50 or 5961) or after a structural breakdown below 5878.
Summary for Monday:
• Expect potential bounce attempts to test breakdown zones like 5907-10 or 5948-50, but any upside remains corrective unless bulls reclaim 5961.
• A flush below Friday’s low (5878) may trigger a failed breakdown setup, sparking a short squeeze.
• Below 5878, next support magnets are 5864, 5843-46, and 5828
• Exercise caution with longs; focus on reactions at key levels. Shorts remain favorable until resistance zones are reclaimed.
UltraPro QQQ. Trump-a-rally gives no light for leveraged betsIt's gone 10 days or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin clears $93,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
The main graph is for UltraPro QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ and it indicates, that major 82-Dollars resistance for leveraged bets on Tech sector has not been broken yet.
👉 NASDAQ:QQQ is a traditional ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, suitable for long-term investors seeking broad exposure to tech-focused stocks.
👉 NASDAQ:TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that aims to deliver triple (3x) the daily returns of the Nasdaq-100 Index, making it only suitable for short-term traders.
Since US dollar interest rates are still near multi year highs and Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates.. all of that means Trump-a-rally gives no light for leveraged bets (yet).
Potentially everything can be clear in January, 2025 only.
GL y'all. Cheers, @Pandorra 😎
ES levels and Targets Nov 15thYesterday, shorts finally triggered in ES by breaking down a two-day flag. As mentioned, losing Wednesday’s low opened the door to 5972, 5950. We hit 5950 and dropped further overnight.
As of now: 5958=resistance, approaching. Unless reclaimed (relief pop to 5972), the selloff likely continues to 5936, 5928.
S&P500: No signs of correcting as long as the 1D MA50 supports.S&P500 is on excellent bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.046, MACD = 60.810, ADX = 33.473) as it is capitalizing on the 1D MA50 bounce on the day of the U.S. elections. The long term Channel Up is still in full effect since September 2023 and even though we are close to its top, the uptrend can be extended for as long as the 1D MA50 supports. We have so far 3 corrections inside this Channel Up. The two prior to the current one, rebounded to or very close to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Based on that, we are targeting long term this level (TP = 6,400) for as long as the 1D MA50 holds.
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Es levels and targets Nov14thAfter last week’s 330-point rally, ES has been following its usual routine after a big move: consolidation, forming a flag. Resistance/target sits at 6028-32, marking yesterday’s highs, and 6009 support held overnight. Don’t overtrade.
As of now: 6009=support. This level keeps 6032, 6038, and ATHs in play. Breakdown only kicks in if 5996-98 fails.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 13thYesterday, ES saw its first pullback after last week’s 330-point rally. We got a dip to 5986.75, bouncing up 40 points from there. With CPI on deck in 15 mins, it’s time to size down.
Plan for now: Key supports at 6002 (weak) and 5988. A reclaim of 6009 opens up targets at 6019 and 6032-33. If 5988 breaks, look for an initial dip to 5972.
S&P500 Eyeing 6180 on this diverging Channel Up.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 27 2023 High. More recently it has been following a shorter (dotted) Channel Up since the August 05 2024 Low, which made its most recent Higher Low on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) the day before the U.S. elections.
The rally that followed since, hit the top of the 1-year Channel Up but the current 2-day red streak may not be a rejection to the new Bearish Leg (red Channels) as the (dotted) diverging Channel Up is on its 2nd Bullish Leg. If it is similar in strength to the September - October one, then we expect to see 6180 short-term.
As you can see, every Bullish Leg of the 1 year Channel Up has consisted of two smaller buy highly symmetric Bullish Legs, all of which look very similar with each other (black sequences).
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ES levels and targets Nov 11thLongs keep delivering on what’s shaping up to be the move of the year in ES. As posted consistently last week , the focus is on letting runners do the work and taking profits as the trend continues. Friday’s target of 6038 was hit, with 6050+ now in sight. Lock in more gains here.
As of now: 6068-69 and 6098-6100 are the next targets. Support is at 6035-40, with the first micro dip likely beginning below 6019.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 11th: BUY S&P500, NASDAQ, & DOW!This is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 11th.
The Big 3 Indexes are strong, trading at ATHs. There is no reason to look for anything other than buys this week.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies.
As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
ES levels and targets Nov 7thOvernight, buyers hit major targets. Yesterday’s 5902 support held as expected, setting up for a move back to 5954 and then 5975, which we’re at now. Reminder: FOMC at 2pm today. Lock in gains, leave a small runner if you have them—any further upside is a bonus for buyers today
As of now: 5992 and 6006-07 are in play if buyers wants more. Weak support at 5950; a dip below could head toward 5925.
S&P500: Rising Wedge targeting 6,000 short term.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.812, MACD = 16.490, ADX = 32.155) as it maintains the Rising Wedge pattern that started on August 5th. The critical formation though is on the 1H timeframe and it is the Golden Cross that was just completed. All three Golden Crosses inside the Rising Wedge saw significant gains after they were formed. In fact they posted rallies far greater than the push prior to the Golden Cross, which means that we can currently see a move the will break above the Rising Wedge. Until then though, we have to follow the strict levels that this pattern provides us and on the short term we are targeting the top of the pattern and 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,000).
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ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 6thAs outlined for the past two days, ES put in a textbook failed breakdown on Monday of last Thursdays lows, triggering a long at 5734 that delivered over 216 points during the election. Like i mentioned often, 95% of rallies start from failed breakdowns. This was no different.
As of now: 5919-22 is key support. Flagging above this keeps 5955 and 5973 in play. Dips are only in focus below 5919.