S&P500 The rally still has one more High to give at least.The S&P500 index (SPX) pulled-back yesterday on the strongest 1D red candle since October. A natural technical reaction after weeks of rise-only price action and an overbought 1D RSI that almost hit 83.00. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, it is likely to see one final upward extension towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line).
The two major Higher High sequences (bullish legs) of this Channel have been around +20.50%, extending almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci level. As a result we are expecting a minimum of 4930, before any larger correction takes place, unless of course the index breaks above its Channel Up, in which case we will look for a new pattern.
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Es1
Weekly Update: Expectations after such an impressive rally?I remind in my updates periodically, that nothing clears up confusing-overlapping price action, like more price action.
Meaning sometimes, as an analyst, it can be difficult to forecast precisely what is playing out, until right before a pattern concludes. This current pattern off the October 2023 lows is one of those occurrences. Corrective waves can take on many shapes aside from a standard A-B-C retracement. As patterns mature, counts will change as more price action occurs providing additional clarity. The rally off the October 2023 lows has no particular definitive shape and started out in a overlapping manner. The application of Elliott Wave Theory is not magic, nor is it some sort of divine foresight. The forecasting of markets is reading into the human behaviors of crowds. Yes, most of the time, crowds act in predictable fashion…in contrast, other times, they do not reveal their ultimate intentions until the very end.
Currently below SPX 4818.62 the advance off the October 2022 low of 3491.58 remains a (B) wave retracement. The moment price breaches that level the ending diagonal pattern becomes the most valid conclusion. The problem I currently have with the ED pattern is this advance would fit best as just the a-wave of wave 5 in an ED. However, there are no rules governing this this pattern aside from each of the 5 waves must consist of 3 subwaves...to breach 4818.62 in direct fashion would provide that...so whereas I would expect this to be just the a-wave...the pattern would fulfill the minimum criteria of being complete.
So, we have very little clarity to speak of until we get a decline. The pathways forecasted are outlined above.
🔝 Nasdaq-100 Index: The House of Rising SunThe History is happening right here! ✨
Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX just set its Best First Half in almost 40 years since inception in 1985, with amazing 38.75% year-to-date return in 2023.
Among all semi-annual results, Nasdaq-100 gain this year is second only to the year of 1999.
With historical 61.44% gain in the second half of 1999, glory times shortly ended. Just two months later in the 1st quarter of 2000 index peaked at 4816.15, for the next 15 plus years.
As 38.75% surge in 2023 still far away from the All-the-history record 61.44% in 1999, stocks feel this year like they are, as the great 1960's band "The Animals" said, in the House of the Rising Sun. They won the race, and closed the 1st half of the year with solid gains.
Let's take a look and congratulate the winners of the race! ✨
🥇 The 1st place - Nvidia Corporation, 184.84% YTD return NASDAQ:NVDA
Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence.
Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and that puts them years ahead of competitors.
🥈 The 2nd place - Meta Platform Incorporation, 133.66% YTD return NASDAQ:META
Meta Platforms stock jumped this year after the tech giant's first-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's expectations. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touted the tech giant's AI plans, and pledged to keep costs low as the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instragram continues its "year of efficiency."
In a post-earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg hailed the company's AI efforts and vowed to keep a lid on spending. The Meta founder and CEO said AI recommendations had led to people spending over 24% more time on Instagram since it launched TikTok rival Reels.
🥉 The 3rd place - Tesla Incorporation, 120.88% YTD return NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla's stock price has been rallying non-stop for months - and Wall Street is starting to ponder whether that breakneck surge might've made the EV stock a little overvalued.
Shares have jumped 57% since late April, with investors cheered by CEO Elon Musk signing charging deals with Ford and GM, while Big Tech stocks have also soared more broadly thanks to the rise of AI as an investment theme.
The stock just has settled its best two-quarter advance since 2020.
But Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have each questioned that valuation over the past two weeks, with all three banks slashing their Tesla rating from "buy" to "hold".
Unprecedented dominance
It's historically rare for a handful of stocks from the same sector to make up such a large part of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ).
The last time the five biggest companies by valuation accounted for a quarter of the index's total market cap was indeed the 1960s.
The Fed Put is back – buy the dip is a key theme of 2024 As many try to put reasoning to the perennial grind higher in US equity markets, one clear factor is that the market sees one major difference between 2023 and 2024 – the ‘Fed put’ has been reborn and the metaphorical safety blanket for risky assets is back in the mix.
Cast our minds back to January 2023, and investors were seeing inflation falling, with headline CPI coming in from 9.1% (in June 2022) to 6.4% (in December) – however, confidence of further falls was still low, and traders saw the path for inflation as evenly distributed. The absolute level was also still very high, and the Fed were hellbent on bringing that down, where at the time many felt that this could come at the expense of a recession - which was the big consensus view.
We also knew that the Fed was focused on reducing its balance sheet through FWB:95B p/m in balance sheet runoff (or QT). For many, the perception of reduced liquidity meant being underweight or bearish on equity and credit.
It’s not hard to understand why the market felt vulnerable, believing the historical saviour of the capital markets was no longer going to support, even on a 15-20% drawdown in the S&P500.
2024 is a very different dynamic
In 2024, the Fed have a 5.3% fed funds rate to play around with and can cut rates if there is a need to support businesses and the consumer. A far cry from the zero-interest rate world we’ve been accustomed to for many years.
Having reduced the balance sheet by over MIL:1T and having numerous case studies showing how effective the use of its balance sheet has been in providing targeted and immediate support. The markets know the Fed will not hesitate to utilize its balance sheet to provide target liquidity and capital to stave off any issue deemed potentially systemic.
Most importantly, the distribution for US inflation is now considered skewed and one-sided, with a high probability of lower levels.
Hence, the Fed has increased scope to ease policy should the need arise, and while Fed officials are saying their work is not done, and the last push to get to its 2% inflation target is the hardest part, they can front load cuts far more efficiently when core PCE is at 3.5% and falling.
In recent times we’ve seen massive inflows in US equity and ETF funds, accelerated corporate equity buy-backs, which are suppressing volatility, and generally FOMO capital chasing returns. Within the flows, there’s been an active rotation into junk and high leverage equity, as well as high short interest plays – confidence is clearly euphoric.
It’s easy to argue that traders know that if a tail risk event plays out in 2024, then this time is different, and the Fed (and other DM central banks) will support asset markets. The strike price for the 'Fed Put' has moved far closer to the market.
Recent history has shown time after time when bad things happen, they are nearly always rectified in a positive fashion and we ‘climb the wall of worry’. Its why funds are consistent sellers of volatility on spikes.
The buzz phrase for 2024
Talk of a ‘Fed Put’ will be a major buzz phase in 2024 – markets may even test it out and take on the Fed to search out its willingness to act and to support. For market participants, it suggests that equity drawdown will be supported and ‘buy the dip’ will be back in vogue once again – not that it really has gone away.
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.The Volatility Index (VIX) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 28 2022 High, which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets (SPX illustrated by the thin black trend-line). Being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa.
Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day, the end-of-the-year rally. However, we see a deceleration on VIX's decline, while its 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross since December 01. Being so close to the Channel Down bottom, a technical rebound is technically plausible and the pattern is recurring as it resembles a lot the previous Lower Lows.
If it does reverse upwards, the SPX can react a few days later as during the previous bottom process and reversal (June 22 - July 27) it lagged. In any case, this pattern shows that by January 2024, we should expect heightened volatility translated potentially into a (short-term at least) pull-back on the stock market.
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S&P500: Possible top near 4900. RSI highly unsustainable.We are not saying that the S&P500 won't complete this market wide desired rally in the last two weeks of the year. Even January could be bullish.
But since the price is approaching the top of the 14 month Channel Up, while the 1d RSI is highly unsustainable deep into the overbought zone at 80.00, the market is most likely positioning itself for a strong technical correction.
The last time the 1d RSI was that overbought was on June 15 2023 and November 05 2021. The latter in particular looks very similar to today.
Both patterns peaked at least 6 weaks after the RSI got this overbought.
New All Time High most likely will be made at 4900 at the very top of the Channel Up in a typical overextension of the market to trap as many late buyers as it can.
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S&P500 Sold Channel Up leading it higher.The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside November's Channel Up, with the price turning sideways after nearly hitting its top.
This is a comfortable bullish trade over the 4hour MA50 and looks very much like the November 5th-9th consolidation.
As long as the 4hour MA50 supports, buy and target 4850 (top of the Channel Up).
If it breaks, sell and target 4550 (bottom of the Channel Up and 4hour MA200).
Previous chart:
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US500 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US500 chart mapping/analysis.
S&P 500 holding in choppy consolidation after November ripper rally.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~4610 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone.
Bullish extension target(s) = re-test ~4820 previous/historical ATH.
Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~4524 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ~4450 / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone.
Bearish extension target(s) = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white dotted) confluence zone aka "Return to Scene of Crime".
S&P500 Sell signal emerged.S&P500 is trading inside a 1 year Channel Up with the price reaching today the 0.786 Fibonacci level, following the Fed rate hike.
Following the Bearish Megaphone that initiated November's rally, the can see that the last time such pattern started a rally, it peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci (Dec 01 2022) before pulling back to the 0.236 level.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4500 (MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is also printing the same pattern as the December 2022 High.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
ES1! Key Levels into EOY 2023ES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish:
0.786 Levels clear development of structure into EOY.
KL: 4741.25
Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) now approached 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This was a high area of interest as PA reverted to mean because it was where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)//
Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9558//
VIX 12.04
Price at time of study 4693.75//
KL: 4741.25
Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Risk On
S&P500 Bullish unless this Support level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending the bullish leg of the 16-month Rising Wedge pattern. It doesn't have much room left before it hits the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and as long as this stays intact, it targets 4730 as an end of year target. As you can see, throughout this pattern, its shorter Rising Wedge patterns that have driven the price upwards on the bullish legs, just like the current.
The previous broke to the upside and peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension while the first one failed and when it broke the Support (last Higher Low), it declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level below the 1D MA50.
As a result, if the Support (4535) fails first, short and target 4370 (0.5 Fibonacci). The 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish into Bullish Cross pattern, which was favors the bullish scenario.
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Down only from here on out. $SPY to bottom below $300I've been waiting for this moment for the past two years. Over the next week or so, I expect a high to be put in on the stock market at ~$441-$446, and then the market will be in down only mode for the next 6 months to a year.
I don't take joy in seeing the market fall, but from a trading perspective these opportunities only happen once every 10-15 years and there's lots of money that can be made on the downside. Markets fall faster than they rise, and I think the next 6 months will be painful.
So sharing this as a warning for those long-only investors (to take some profit or sit in cash) and as an opportunity for those that feel comfortable shorting.
What would change my mind is a move above $446 and flipping that level as support. But otherwise, we will move down from here.
Everyone expects rates to come down and thinks that will pump up the market, but I have the opposite view. I think rates will fall because they'll need to be cut after a market wide crisis.
Technically, we've formed a monthly lower high already and we've been consolidating in a tight range, I think once we retest the highs, we'll confirm this last level as resistance and then the market will fall much faster than the last few months and faster than it did last year.
I expect the bottom to be put in sometime between now and October of next year (2024) at $271. I've marked off key levels of support and resistance on the chart.
In July I traded the top:
But from here on out, I think the bottom drops out of the market. Hence why I'm sharing this now.
Key dates on the chart June 17, July 1, Sep 23. Those are all pivot dates on the weekly timeframe where it's an important time to watch for price action.
Good luck trading this next year.
Wave 3 UpdateHere is out map of Primary wave 2 to this point. It is unclear if Minor 5 and Primary wave 2 are completed.
Now that Primary wave 2 retraced all of Primary wave 1's movement and then some, instead of limiting historical datasets to a ratioed range, I am comparing all similar micro waves where wave 2 moved more than wave 1. Elliott wave theory says wave 2 cannot move more than wave 1, my modified theory permits this when it occurs. Wave 1's movement / Wave 2's movement = 0.9957. I compared all data in which this ratio is less than 1 (Wave 2 was larger than wave 1) and the numbers look a little more realistic moving forward.
According to the data, Primary wave 3 should bottom above 3754 and less than 4036. The duration will likely last 608-740 trading hours. I still have other models with heavy agreement at a duration around 690-699 hours. Most models have the bottom between 3750-3799, which falls inline with the historical ratioed data. I will use the target of 3775 (drop 834.23 points from Friday's high) in 690 hours for estimating the Intermediate wave endpoints.
Preliminary bottom for Intermediate 1 is below 4350 before December 25. Intermediate wave 2 up toward 4500 by January 10. Intermediate wave 3 will be a significant drop over time, current look is 3900 by end of February. Intermediate wave 4 bounces up toward 4100 by mid-March. Current Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 5 bottom is around 3775 by early May.
Again this is all under the assumption Primary wave 2 is where we are, has completed, or will complete shortly after the open tomorrow. Primary wave 2 cannot realistically sustain too much more upside otherwise my wave placement is well off. More updates to follow.
Weekly Macro S&P 500 AnalysisThe 4270.00 level can contain selling through Q1, above which 4634.50 remains a 3 - 5 week target, 4864.25 likely over the next 3 - 5 months.
Upside, 4634.50 can contain weekly buying pressures, while closing above 4634.50 indicates the targeted 4864.25 by the end of February where the market can top out into Q2.
Downside, a settlement below 4270.00 signals 4113.50 within 2 - 3 weeks, secondary long- term support able to contain selling into later in 2024 and above which a longer-term bullish dynamic remains in effect over that time horizon.
S&P500: Ascending Triangle trading plan.S&P500 is trading inside an Ascending Triangle pattern with the price over the July 27th Top (R1) and bullish on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 63.128MACD = 5.390, ADX = 23.122). Until the HH and more importantly the R2 level break, we will be bearish, targeting the S1 (TP = 4,550). Below the S1, the 4H MA200 is the target (TP = 4,480). If the price crosses over the R2 level, be ready for an end of year rally to the January 12th 2022 Top (TP = 4,749.50).
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12/8 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish
The current market sentiment is bullish, as indicated by various key factors. The closing prices are consistently above the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 9, 21, and 55 periods in both the 4-hour and daily datasets, highlighting a positive trend. Additionally, the market is maintaining levels above key support zones while approaching significant resistance levels. This bullish sentiment is further supported by global market trends, with most markets showing upward movement, robust crude oil prices, and strong yield performances.
🔄 Market Recap
November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize.
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Up
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month.
📷 Snapshot
Daily Data Sentiment Analysis
EMA 9, 21, 55: Similar to the 4-hour data, the daily data also shows a bullish sentiment with closing prices above the EMAs.
Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, similar to the 4-hour data, and the closest resistance level is at 4632.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis
EMA 9, 21, 55: All are indicating a bullish sentiment as the closing prices are above these EMAs.
Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, and the closest resistance level is at 4642.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
🔍 Key Resistance Levels
4755: A significant long-term target connecting August 2022 and July 2023 highs. It's a major magnet/target in the current market context.
4680-4685: Represents a re-test or slight overthrow of the August highs. It's crucial for validating the strength of the bullish trend.
4658: A critical resistance level that was tested on June 20th and July 25th, 2023. Previous failures to sustainably clear this zone led to a correction, making it the first major breakout zone above 4620-4625.
4642-4645: A key zone in the current market structure.
4620-4625: This represents the upper green dotted line in the chart, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. This level was a target for some time and is now more likely to be breached due to significant basing.
🔍 Key Support Levels
4573 (and 4580): This zone capped rallies in the last week and a half, with multiple failed attempts to clear it. It's seen as a significant 2-week resistance cluster now turned into support.
4556-4558: A key zone tested multiple times (32 times in the last week), indicating a range of choppy trading between 4556 and 4580.
4540-4542: A multi-month level, it was key resistance in June and July 2023, and following a breakout, it has been acting as support.
4514: An important zone from mid-November.
4497: Serves as major support, back-testing the channel resistance dating back to highs of December 2022 and February 2023.
4450: The immediate backtest point of the line after the CPI announcement on November 14th.
📉 Support Levels
4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major)
📈 Resistance Levels
4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major)
📝 Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario: If the market sustains above key support levels and breaches resistance levels, especially 4620-4625 and 4658, the bullish breakout trend may continue.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, particularly below 4556, could indicate weakening of the bullish sentiment, leading to a potential bearish shift.
💡 Wrap Up
The market is showing bullish sentiment, but vigilance is key. Monitor resistance and support levels for changes in market dynamics.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
12/7 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral
The immediate market conditions lack a strong bullish drive, thus leaning towards neutrality in the short term.
🔄 Market Recap
November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize.
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
A ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one lane of the two-lane section and reducing transits by more than 50%. It’s since been cleared but the situation highlights ongoing difficulties in global shipping.
🔍 Key Structures
4755: A long-term target, connecting the August 2022 and July 2023 highs.
4680: Represents a re-test of the August highs.
4658: Crucial resistance encountered in mid-2023.
4639-42: A pivotal zone.
4618-22: The green dotted line on the chart, marks a significant trendline.
4573 (with 4580 just above): A two-week resistance cluster.
4556: A repeatedly tested support level.
4539-42: A notable horizontal zone, acting as a key resistance in mid-2023.
4520: A significant level from mid-November.
4497: A channel resistance tracing back to late 2022.
4450: The immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement in November.
4430: The bull market trendline from late 2022 to early 2023.
📉 Support Levels
4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major)
📈 Resistance Levels
4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major)
📝 Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario: Maintain a long position as long as the 4556 support holds. Key supports at 4556 and 4539-42 safeguarding the upward trajectory.
Bearish Scenario: Prepare for a bearish shift if support at 4556 or 4542 fails. This scenario would involve breakdown trades below these support levels, with a high risk-reward ratio and the potential for substantial sell-offs.
💡 Wrap Up
As long as the support levels at 4556 (with the lowest being 4542-39) are maintained, there's potential for the ES to continue operating within its current range and possibly revisit levels like 4573, 4580, then dip to 4590, followed by another dip, before potentially approaching the vicinity of 4620. If the 4542 level fails, we might see the ES embarking on a downward trajectory, moving from one level to the next.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Bulls and Bears zone for 12-07-2023Yesterday market sold off and closed at its Low. This morning it is trading at bottom half of yesterday's RTH session.
Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch 4570 --- 4568
Report to watch:
US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET