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SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory: As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually. Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target. If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradingShot
1
ES New All Time High Targets & General OutlookAfter buyers broke us out yesterday, ES is now basing right off the uptrend channel sellers tried to leak us from June 3rd (5370). This is very typically after a trend leg/breakout, as after these play out, longs are risky (due to chasing), shorts are risky (against the trend), so this causes a very high chance of chop the day after. And that's exactly how today is playing out. This is very vital to understand, as MANY traders lose lots of money overtrading after the trend move happens, all because we naturally try to recreate missed opportunity. Don't. We are building a small flag now above 5363. 5375, 5390, 5403 are the next ATH targets whenever buyers are ready. If sellers want to backtest some supports, 5348 is 1st down, then 5342 CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES1! PM long opportunity using algorithmic levelsToday we'd seen beautiful reaction to algorithmic levels! +1/3 AWR acted as support after yesterday push above it and -1/3 ADR likewise! another confluence was D -M OHLC statistical mapping (tool) and H4 IFVG! ADR is usually TRUE Support & Resistance! and most of the time we can use it within Higher Time Frame context. same goes with OHLC statistical mapping when we are bullish we use -manipulation! combining this with ADR/&AWR can be really helpfull!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Keclikk
S&P500 Short-term accumulation before strong rise.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned sideways since practically May 16 and, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), is consolidating. Even though this consolidation is taking place at the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up (Fibonacci 0.0 - 0.236 range), it is similar in some way to the accumulation of April - May 2023 (also a little like November - December 2023), which was again supported by the 1D MA50. As a result, as long as the price remains above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the crucial Support on April 19 and started the recovery from the -6.65% decline, we expect a similar Channel Up to start when the accumulation ends. Our short-term Target is 5500 (top of 1.5 year Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
Where is the SPX most likely headed in the coming yearsAlthough it's hard to predict what the stock market will do in the future, there is already a clear consensus on what is likely to happen. In this chart, I have plotted most predictions from big investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to other investors like Michael Burry. I have also calculated the average of all the predictions and plotted it on the chart. I think the most likely scenario is that we retest the lows of the Corona Virus Crisis, and then we trade sideways from there (illustrated with the red arrows). There is also the probability that we bounce off the 3000 SPX as the consensus estimates and then trade sideways from there (illustrated with blue arrows). The main reason we might trade sideways for the coming years is because of a dilemma the Federal Reserve is currently facing. Having to fight a battle between high inflation caused by quantitative easing done during the Coronavirus Crisis, and fighting said inflation by raising interest rates which will make it harder to maintain its 30 Trillion dollars of debt obligations. Likely changing back and forth till there is a deleveraging of the whole system that will last at least 3 years. And since the markets are strongly correlated to what the fed does, this will be the most likely outcome. Let me know your predictions and see if you agree more with the blue arrows or red arrows.
SP:SPXShort
by Blasik
7
Trends Mixed; Overall Neutral Short Term on MarketsSo, as stated in the video, the shorter term timeframes of 30m/1hr/2hr have opened up to lower movements, while the 3hr/4hr/6hr have been violated and would call for a movement back up, but haven't shown that potential movement yet. We are still in a short term Bullish Zone in accordance with my moving momentum algorithm, but we are very close to hitting below that Zero Line into Bearish territory, especially if we continue to stay low like this. What I may look for is a movement into the Bearish zone, a move upward, and if that movement upward doesn't bounce us back into a bullish zone I may short the market, but we shall see. Overall long term, I'm curious if the Daily can push below and settle under 5160ish for a Lower Low. It would be the first time in quite some time that we had a lower low on the Daily trend, putting us at risk of getting a lower high Daily rebound that will call for markets to be on a decline. Overall, The Mag 7, especially NVidia, still continue to mostly carry the market with the bulk of the Dow in neutral territory at best, and the Nasdaq outside of the Mag 7 also neutral. I continue to be concerned about this rally being too narrow and traders continuing to use Mag 7 stocks as safety stashes, and what will happen if they choose to take that safety money out to stash it somewhere else. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5319 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 5313 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5309 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 4Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 6Hr - 5287 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High Daily - 5330 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High Economic Calendar; GDP Thursday PCE Friday Earnings to watch; Salesforce AMC today Costco earnings are tomorrow My sentiment on the market is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish / Neutral Medium Term - Neutral / Bullish Long Term - Bullish Basically, I don't see major risks in the long-term just yet, but the short term is a bag of mixed reactions. Currently in a place I feel we may need to look elsewhere. If you were looking for me to give you a warm and fuzzy on where to trade the ES Futures, I just can't give that today. Safe trading and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
S&P500: Don't expect any sizeable correction any time soon.The S&P500 index is on very healthy bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.385, MACD = 146.190, ADX = 48.596) showcasing in the best possible way the bullish bias of the long term trend and pattern, which is a Channel Up. This month's pullback is perhaps the best buy entry we can have as in relative terms based on the 1W CCI, the index is printing a consolidation phase similar to August-October 2020. As long as the 1W MA50 is in support, we expect the Channel Up to gradually rise in the same manner as then and by early 2025 possibly hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,800). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
Is Now the Right Time to Invest in the S&P 500?Last week, the S&P 500 index, which comprises the 500 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization, reached a new all-time high, hitting $5,341.88 during intraday trading on Thursday, May 23. Warren Buffett has long recommended an S&P 500 index fund as the ideal investment for those who don't have the time to analyze individual stocks in depth. The recent milestone seems to support his advice. However, with the stock market at a new peak, enthusiasm for AI potentially becoming excessive, and both interest rates and inflation remaining persistently high, is now truly the best time to invest in the S&P 500? For those wary of the markets, there are numerous reasons to hesitate before buying into stock market averages. The S&P 500, a market-cap weighted index, is heavily influenced by large technology companies that have seen substantial gains recently, buoyed by a bull market that began in October 2022. Several factors have propelled these tech giants to new heights: interest rates seem to have peaked, inflation has dropped from its high of 9.1% in June 2022 to just 3.4% last month, and the surge in artificial intelligence has provided significant momentum. It's not just Nvidia (NVDA 6.79%) reaching new peaks, with a staggering market cap of $2.6 trillion and a high P/E ratio of 62. Many cloud giants and related semiconductor stocks have also soared, driven by strong growth expectations. But will this growth persist indefinitely? AI investments must ultimately prove their worth to companies and consumers. Currently, companies are spending unprecedented amounts on AI chips and data centers to avoid falling behind. This situation is reminiscent of the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, which led to an epic crash in 2000. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 76.8% from peak to trough, while the S&P 500 fell by 49.1%. Could the AI bubble burst similarly? AI momentum seems unstoppable, but few predicted the 2000 crash, believing internet hypergrowth would continue indefinitely. A slowdown in growth from an AI company could trigger a significant correction. While this might not happen soon, it’s a possibility. Additionally, inflation impacts the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, which in turn affect stock valuations and the economy. If inflation remains "sticky" and exceeds expectations, the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer to meet its 2% target. This scenario poses a risk, as the S&P 500 is currently trading at a historically high valuation of 27.6 times trailing earnings, compared to the historical average of 16.1. If interest rates and inflation surge again, it could be a precarious time to invest in this frothy market. On the flip side, renowned investor Peter Lynch famously noted, "there is always something to worry about" in the markets. Although the historical average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is significantly lower than today's, the market has generally traded at a higher P/E ratio in recent years, averaging around 22.5 over the past decade. While this is still below current levels, it is much closer. Additionally, avoiding the stock market over the past ten years due to fears of high valuations would have resulted in missing out on 236% gains, including dividends. Moreover, the average annual return of the S&P 500 from 1928 through 2023, since the Standard & Poor's index was first developed, is approximately 9.9% with dividends reinvested. Since the index expanded to 500 companies in 1957, the long-term annualized return has been an even better 10.3%. Certainly, there have been critical moments right before significant market crashes when investing would have seemed unwise. However, Ben Carlson, author of the blog A Wealth of Common Sense, highlights in his study that with a long enough time horizon, even investments made at market peaks before major crashes have yielded positive long-term results. Carlson examined hypothetical investments made just before eight of the market's worst crashes, from September 1929 to October 2007, prior to the Great Recession. Five years later, three of those investments still produced positive results. Ten years out, six of the eight investments were profitable, with three delivering triple-digit gains. Twenty years after investing at these worst possible times, all eight were profitable, with all but the September 1929 investment yielding multi-hundred-percent gains. Prudent investing, however, is not solely about one-time, large investments. By consistently saving a portion of income and dollar-cost averaging into an index fund monthly, it's inevitable to invest before some market peaks but also benefit from subsequent downturns. Market crashes are notoriously difficult, if not impossible, to predict. History shows that even investments made before the worst market peaks and crashes tend to recover over time, as the earnings of American businesses grow. Conversely, attempting to time the market can be costly, as demonstrated by those who have stayed out of the market for the past decade. Therefore, the S&P 500 still seems like a wise buy today, even at its elevated valuation, provided there is a consistent investment plan with regular monthly, quarterly, or annual allocations.
ICMARKETS:US500
by FOREXN1
1
Trends still show upward movement; CPI Data this weekSo trends that called for upward movement confirmed this upward movement last week. I had mentioned in my last video that the candlestick pattern for May 1st was extremely bullish, the following two days confirmed that movement in my opinion and given that trends called for upward movement, we crossed above the zero line on MACD Momentum into a bullish zone, and we were pushing above that Daily lower high resistance level around 5160, I went long. I did cash that trade out around 5260 for a $5000 trade. Given the uncertainty of how CPI could come in, I am likely to stick out until I see that data this Wednesday. While I'm not certain what Core CPI will do, and that SHOULD be the main data point we pay attention to, I have concerns based on a 10% hike in gas prices over much of April that Headline CPI could come in above expectations and cause at least an initial panic sell off. We are nearing the potential for an overbought state on MFI/RSI on the daily, so watch for algo trading around those levels as well, at least on the initial touch. Obviously we rented living space in overbought territory at the beginning of this year, so it doesn't mean we have to reverse at all, especially in this FOMO market. I continue to see the current conditions as very bullish, in spite of significant concerns I have for the ES Economy overall. While there was a time when the US Markets reflected the state of the US Economy, I think we have a massive disconnect between the two that was caused by the COVID Pandemic. I think the new trend is when the economy looks rough, dump money into Mag 7 / NYFAANG / or basically whatever hyper select group of stocks equals the majority of the market cap out there, which will just push markets higher in spite of economic conditions. Walmart Earnings on Thursday will be something to watch, moreso as it might show insight into consumer health more than what is actually happening with Walmart. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5251 Uptrend (5/13/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 5241 Downtrend (5/10/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 5229 Uptrend (5/9/2024) Higher High 3Hr - 5157 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High Economic Data; PPI & Powell Speaking on Tuesday CPI on Wednesday Jobs data on Thursday Earnings; Home Depot Tuesday Walmart on Thursday Geopolitical; Russia has had a major push into Ukraine, not sure it will matter but there is the potential for a major offensive to pick up pace there. Israel / Hamas conflict continues to be a concern but doesn't seem to have much influence on markets at the moment. Overall Sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Mmmm... really undecided on this one Long Term - Bullish Overall, I could see a quick pull back overall this week, but even if this happens I think the market will heal whatever dip we have and we will end higher overall by the end of next week. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
S&P500 Buy opportunity on 4H.The S&P500 index is recovering from the last Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up, which even broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time since May 02. The 4H MACD is forming the first Bullish Cross since that very same date, which was also a recovery sequence after a bottom on the Channel Up pattern. Having also breached into the Ichimoku Cloud and rebounded, we expect a similar short-term rally towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. That rally's first stop was on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our current Target is 5400 (marginally below the 1.618 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SP500. Weekly trading levels 27 - 31.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Forex_Hoby
SPX Showing Signs of Weakness at PCZ of a Bearish Alternate BatThe RSI on the daily has begun to rollover as the SPX appears to have rejected off of the Bearish Alternate Bat HOP level. There does not appear to be much nearby support within the range the SPX is currently trading in so if it gets back below the previous All-Time High I could see it coming back down to around $5100 maybe even $5000 - $4800. This all seems to be brought on by the increase in JGB Yields disrupting the Carry Trade. We may see them try to stabilize the carry trade around $5100 but there is a heightened chance of failure. More on the carry trade can be seen in the related idea below.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by RizeSenpai