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Weekly Update: Has the Stock Market Topped?Anyone who answers yes or no definitively to that question is really just guessing. As a practitioner of Elliott Wave I can answer that question in two-parts. 1) There is not enough price action to make such a determination In my trading room we discuss the key levels that need to be breached to even start to consider the upside pattern is cracking. To date, we're far away from those levels. Nothing provides confirmation, like confirmation. Now granted Elliottitions will have many clues along the way with the price action pattern being the most important, but until we breach 3502 in the SPX Futures, this pattern off the October lows could sub-divide into an even more complex structure, denying both bulls and bears a break out or break down. In the micro pattern, there's also nothing conclusive pointing to the downside. 2) Retracement Levels Yesterday's trading day saw price in the futures get to 4305.75. In my analysis I have the .618% retracement level of the pattern from the January 2022 all time highs to the October 2022 lows at 4309.50. Since we did not tag that level, and currently have no compelling downside set up in place, I have to assume we will eventually tag it. Is it required? No. However, to discount 4309.50 is to not know the significance of the .618%. I will not get into the importance that retracement and extension level represents except to say, we came within a hair of it yesterday. When price patterns are retracing in counter trends or advancing in trends, the .618% and it's derivatives, the 1.618% and the 2.618% (mainly in commodities) are of major significance to an Elliotition and the wave count. Therefore I'll conclude by stating as to where price is today, and the proximity to the .618%, I would answer the question of "Has the stock market topped" by simply saying either it did yesterday, or it's top is imminent. Anyone who says different, is truly guessing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
ES - Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis June 5 - June 9, 2023 In the current market, we find ourselves inside the Daily Liquidity Area. 50% of this area aligns with the end of the Daily Volume Imbalance at 4314. For this week, I anticipate a test of the Consequent Encroachment of Liquidity Area and a potential fill of the Daily Volume Imbalance. I believe that 4317.75 could act as a significant barrier preventing further upward movement in price. Therefore, my key level to watch is 4317.75, as I am likely to consider closing my long positions at this point. A break above 4317.75 will attract more bulls into the market, and I can expect a bounce towards the 4339 level, which would fill the Daily Breakaway Gap. However, if the market fails to hold the Daily Liquidity Area and breaks below 4380, it would present a short trade opportunity with a target of 4266-4264. I am particularly interested in observing a test of the 5-minute Order Block, as it has shown strong support thus far. In order to see further bearish momentum, it would be necessary for another Liquidity Area in the range of 4254-4247 to be breached. In such a scenario, I would initiate a short scalp trade with a quick target at the 4240.50 level, which represents the Consequent Encroachment of the 5-minute wick. Looking ahead, my next key level to monitor is 4223.75. However, I will provide more details about this level during the week, as currently, there don't appear to be sufficient reasons to anticipate a move towards this level due to multiple barriers situated above it.
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by LumiTraders
Are you dripping into your 401k yet?Are you dripping into your 401k yet? Not bad area to start dripping in imo for longer term positioning. Dovish powell, in reality it was all stated before and thats why we've had the market really for weeks/months softening rate hikes - the real question is when they will actually STOP! Now, we are at key resistance area, I like the next area of resistance 4200-4300. I'd appreciate any pull back for ES & NQ key tip: The market is forward looking Trade your own plan TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
Weekly Update: Bitcoin to ALMOST Triple?Approximately a month ago on CNBC, the ticker displayed on the bottom of my TV screen would be fixated with a quote of Bitcoin. The bewilderment of the CNBC hosts with the fact that Bitcoin was actually moving up and displaying stable price action, in the midst of a banking crisis was, to them, counterintuitive. Inexplicable. In my trading office I keep CNBC on as back ground noise. To be a trader, and incorporate most anything uttered on CNBC into a trading or analytical thesis to derive a profit, is akin to just donating your money to an unworthy cause. This post is not about how worthless, or destructive I find the content being CNBC produces for professional traders and investors at large... so relax . Bitcoin’s most recent top occurred on April 14, 2023 at $31,050. On my daily live-videos Bitcoin is discussed every day. On April I5th I posted in my trading room: ” Weekend Update: Is EVERYTHING about to come down together?” The aftermath of that post of Bitcoin at $31,050 was a projected path that would cause a 25% decline in the asset price. Soon after BTC started it’s decent, the CNBC guests couldn’t wait to declare the irresponsibility of any trader or investor propping those "things" up. Suffice to say, we're down almost 25% now. I bring this up not to say, “look at me, I’m smart, CNBC is stupid…bla, bla, bla)…I do that to get those of you reading this post… to pay attention to what I say next. In writing, that’s called, “The Hook” . Suffice to say, in that post I covered many assets, and today’s conclusion would be precisely what I forecasted on the 15th of April. Everything covered did come down together and to the targets pointed out for every asset mentioned, we’re hit, or very close and about to be hit. I bring that up because here’s another one of those posts that you can track, bookmark or keep handy to refer back to periodically if you choose to do so. In my analysis I am forecasting tier-1 crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL and ADA) to embark on an impulsive move higher. A move that that should start imminently. Now this is a proclamation that has caused me great consternation because at the same time, I am forecasting US Markets to do the exact same thing… but in the opposite direction . So how does one square risk assets, like crypto moving higher, while simultaneously, global stock markets are moving lower? In truth. Only through the kind of analysis I practice, and speculation, because the event mentioned has NOT happened. There is no way to tell the future. Trading for a living is not easy. Forecasting price and then sharing that analysis with the public, opens one up to being called out for being wrong. In my case, I do get some ugly direct messages every now and then. Especially when I’m forecasting something that is clearly against someone’s current position. But the truth of the matter is most times I am right, and most times forecasting areas are hit. The manner in which the price action arrives at the target may not be 100% accurate but price does reconcile in my target boxes the vast majority of the time. My forecast for Bitcoin specifically is for price to be in the area of all time highs by this time next year. In my analytical mind, I think it happens before then, but I have no mechanism, nor methodology to accurately forecast timeframe. So, I hope if you have interest in Bitcoin, you’ll track this particular post. Maybe you’ll be encouraged to make your first crypto investment keeping in mind your risk tolerances and proper portfolio allocations. Currently crypto makes up approximately 5% of my resources. I am a crypto investor, not trader. I trade to make a paycheck, a living. Where my crypto coverage basket is now, these are assets not worthy of trading…they’re worthy of owning. Best to all, Chris
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by maikisch
ES - short-term analysis Yesterday, we witnessed a sell-off down to the 4-hour Breaker Block, followed by a bounce from that level. There is a 15-minute SMT divergence between NQ and YM, as well as a 1-hour SMT divergence with YM. This could indicate the possible formation of a MMBM (Market Maker Buy Model). Currently, I'm interested in observing the testing of two short-term BSL levels: 4158 and 4166. After that, we may see a rapid bounce towards the 4175 level, which is an OB on the 15-minute chart. My primary focus area is around the 1-hour OB, which ranges from 4186 to 4190. However, for a comprehensive analysis, we need to see the retesting of the Monday High. If the market holds above the New Week Open Gap (NWOG), then my long target will be in the range of 4198 to 4200. Please note that the Monday High at 4222.75.
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by LumiTraders
ES short-term analysisToday I want to see fill of the 1h Breakaway Gap - 4139. My key level 4125. This is buystops level. Pretty sure it will want to test it to complete ATM/ICT Mentorship Model. My Pre-market Plan for May 24, 2023: Bullish Scenario - Break above 4165 (short-term BSL, 4163 NY Midnight Open Price as well) can bring some bulls —> 4175 - this is "NWOG" - 04/16-04/21. Market looks more bearish anyway. Once it tested 4175 level and failed to hold it, I am going to play long w/ target at 4186-90. 1h OB - 4190 + 1h FVG. Bearish Scenario - Break below 4132 ("NWOG" - 05/07-05/12) will give short trade opportunity with target at 4126. Next my trade can be below 4120 - SSL on 1h chart. Once it breaks this SSL level, it will open the room to the 4111. Key Levels for long today: 4158, 4168, 4185 Key Levels for short today: 4131, 4122, 4104
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by LumiTraders
Weekly Update: The Triangle Count was Invalidated, Now What?Since the December lows of 3788 ES, I have been tracking a triangle pattern that would have reconciled higher in my target box for a larger B-wave. Readers can look at previous postings to see what I have been forecasting. Last week, SPX Futures breached the 4208.50 level. So, with that, the final micro target of an e-wave was invalidated and thus the triangle count abandoned. With respect to a triangle pattern, two topics I continue to share with my members in our trading room is (1) Triangles are rare patterns, and (2) they typically invalidate between the D and the E wave, only to reveal a much simpler pattern. Yes, it is true price patterns can become complex when in the midst of a counter trend corrective rally or decline. However, I tend to keep my labeling simple rather than defaulting to the complex as many of these patterns tend to be viewed as simple zig zags in the rear-view mirror. That is what we have been presented with now that price has invalidated the more complex triangle pattern as featured above. Here's where things get tricky. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated, after an A and B waves you get…” Wait for it” …a C wave. Anyone who follows or practices Elliott Wave Analysis would agree when I say that a C-wave feels like a Crash when the reconciliation is to the downside, or a parabolic move when the trend is up. If you wish to challenge that my determination of that feel free to post your comments below. I will admit in the short term, there appears to be some work to do to the upside for our A wave to equal our C wave higher. But here’s the most important piece of information I share with you today. With the breach of 4208.50 last week, I now have the minimum waves in place to consider this counter trend rally complete. However, as of the time of my authoring this weekly update, I have no immediate information that our upside pattern is complete. Let’s discuss what I expect now, and what clues we will see before such a “Crash Event” lower is underway. My Expectation: Let me start with the mathematical sweet spot for the counter trend price action to complete and reverse from. That price point is the .618% Fibonacci retracement level up at 4309.50. That would mean we have about only about 2.8% upside left to go from current levels. However, the reasonable target area higher (above the .618% level at 4309.50) could extend at maximum to the price area of 4529. That is the .786% retracement level. In fact, prior to that level, price would have to exceed the 1.0 extension level higher at 4517. So, let’s assume that everything goes right with the Fed, Inflation, the Jobs Market, and Not to mention the debt ceiling…4529 would be the statistical anomaly for higher price action. So, what’s my expectation higher: Provided we do not breach 4062.25 then I think it’s reasonable to expect 4309.50. Below 4062.50 and the possibility we are in our C-wave down to NEW LOWS, starts to get higher. Disclaimer: If you have gotten this far in this post then you have read all of the above. Many of the comments I receive here on TradingView...are from people who scan my posts...but have a lot to comment on...al of which I address within the context of my posts. Just like trading...reading is hard. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
ES (SPX500) Short-Term Bullish Expectation/AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SmartMoneySource
5/22: Market Recap and OutlookCharting 101, Trailing Stops, Bond Yields, and the Debt Ceiling Introduction In this newsletter, we'll recap the recent market action, discuss the power of holding runners, talk about strategies for trailing stops, and provide an update on bond yields and the debt ceiling. We'll also provide an actionable plan for the upcoming trading day. Market Recap Last week saw a tight trading range, with the market eventually breaking out and reaching 4228. Friday was OPEX day, which led to choppy trading conditions and the market mostly pinned around 4200. This week's market action demonstrated many foundational charting concepts, such as the transition between Chop and Trend. Trailing Stops Trailing stops are an essential part of a trading system, helping to lock in profits and minimize losses. The strategy involves dragging the stop up behind the most significant swing low on the 30-minute chart, usually once or twice a day. The goal is to eventually get stopped out, with the stop tightened as the trade progresses. Actionable Plan For the upcoming trading day, keep an eye on the following structures: Blue broadening formation: Resistance is at 4245, while support is at 4040. A breakout has a bullish bias, with the next major magnet at 4305. White broadening formation: We broke out on Thursday, with a backtest at 4200. Purple rising channel: Support is at 4148, controlling the short-term uptrend. Triangle structure: The measured move target is in the high 4260s. Support and resistance levels, as well as potential entry points for long and short positions, are detailed below: Support Levels 4200-4197 (major), 4192, 4176, 4166-70 (major), 4155, 4145-48 (major), 4135(major - triangle backtest), 4128 (broadening formation support), 4114, 4105, 4092 (major), 4078 (major), 4067, 4061, 4055 (major), 4040-43 (major), 4033, 4015-20 (major). Resistance Levels 4216-4221, 4228, 4239, 4246 (major - broadening formation), 4255-60 (major), 4275-80 (major), 4289, 4300 (major), 4305-08 (major), 4320-23 (major), 4342-45 (major), 4360, 4368 (major). Summary After a clean, easy rally leg, expect some complex, messy trading as the market transitions back into Chop. React to the market action using the provided plan, with a loose lean towards a bullish bias as long as 4200 holds. If 4200-4197 fails, a pullback is likely, and short positions may be taken. Bond Yields The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.95% on Friday, the highest level since May 2019. The rise in bond yields was driven by concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates. Debt Ceiling The US debt ceiling is currently set at $28.9 trillion. The Treasury Department has said that it will run out of money to pay its bills on October 18, 2023. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by then, the US government will be unable to pay its bills and could default on its debt. Conclusion The market is facing a number of headwinds, including rising inflation, rising interest rates, and the looming debt ceiling deadline. You should be prepared for a volatile market in the coming days and weeks ahead. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
ES short-term analysisWe have 1h Breaker block 4213.75-4220.50. We might see possible bounce to this BB and a drop to the 15m Breakaway Gap - 4177. But it can drop from 4204 - there is 15m FVG there + 3m BB. Break above 4227 will bring us to the 4244. This is Buyside Liquidity level. I want to see fill of the breakaway gap first. 4177 and 4170 my key levels. They act as a magnet for the price. Once it fails to hold 4161 - SSL, we are going to have short trade opportunity with target at 4145. There is 15m Liquidity Void
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by LumiTraders
Weekly Update: Do the Little Things Matter? As an analyst, I often wonder if I get too much into the weeds (so to speak) at times. In the final analysis do those tiny details even matter? When you’re both a full time trader for profit, and simultaneously an analyst who shares one’s work publicly, often times distraction and multi-tasking is the enemy of discovery. Hopefully, this is not one of those times. It’s no secret I exclusively use MACD in my analysis. To use MACD properly is to know the indicator intimately. MACD, or moving average convergence/divergence, is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line or Zero-Line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. That's probably more than you ever wanted to know about the indicator. Now in my analysis I do not use MACD as a buy/sell indicator. I exclusively use MACD as a means to guide me within my Elliott Wave analysis. In doing so I have to rely on the indicator to guide me with the following: 1. Is this an A-wave within a corrective structure, or a wave 3 within an impulsive structure? 2. Is the trend concluding or persisting? 3. Is the bottom or the top of a wave structure valid, or should I expect One More High or Low (OMH/OML). Without observing the indicator in conjunction with my Elliott Wave count, I fear I would be inaccurate in my forecasts. To say MACD is essential to my price pattern analysis is analogous to saying water is essential to life. For me, I cannot perform one without the other. However recently I noticed some very small anomalies in the indicator while analyzing price action that I hope to remember to come back and check for validity. in the above chart I notated two bottoms in price action and how the indicator reacted to both. As I track and report on each and every tick of the ES/SPX Futures, I noticed our recent breach of 4068.75 a week go to 4062.25 was not on positive divergence. Now anyone who would say I'm way to focused on a detail that in the grand scheme of things means nothing, would get no push-back from me. But is it really meaningless? Is it a clue? Is it the detail 99% of traders would miss, and in the end...is everything? Truth is...I don't know yet. Time will tell. The above chart I have manually stretched the MACD indicator, but unstretched and it clearly debatable the recent bottom may not have breached the previous MACD reading and since price has reversed, to the unobservant eye, we have what could be positive divergence. So, how do we know? To confirm this was not a mear over estimation of one's detailed orientated skills, the price action would need to follow through lower, without making a new high. Thereby confirming this MACD reading was no random reading worthy of being overlooked. RN Elliott postulated that price action is fractal across all time frames. That's interesting to me, because of this one singular MACD reading has chosen to occupy space in my brain so much that I'm now noticing the very same anolmolies in the micro patterns as well. Nonetheless, I have a tendency to think positive or negative divergence is either confirmed or it's not. In my current mind, this is not up for debate. Now maybe I am proven wrong as time goes on, but even if that happens, this would not be an unworthy study in what confirmation actually means. Therefore, I will continue to wonder, IF THE LITTLE THINGS MATTER. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3