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9/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The action since Wednesday was further evidence of just how powerful simple technical analysis can be. Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1 year old trendline support, showing the power of the bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 lows, with the March 2023 lows. This trendline was tested on Wednesday and resulted in a large bullish daily hammer candle at support, followed by a continued upward trend on Thursday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up, Hong Kong up very strongly, mainland China close for a week 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts PCE reports comes in lighter than expected. US government shutdown looms. Key Structures The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into melt-down. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4385 now to set a “sustained bottom”. This is far away now, but still worth remembering if we get a sustained, multi-day relief rally. Support Levels 4335 (major), 4322-25, 4313, 4308 (major), 4297 (major), 4280, 4270, 4260-62 (major), 4250, 4245, 4232-36 (major), 4220, 4212 (major), 4208 (major), 4198, 4190 (major), 4170-75 (major - this is a wider zone), 4156, 4150 (major), 4125 (major). Resistance Levels 4351 (major), 4366, 4372, 4382 (major), 4385, 4391, 4400-4405(major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4432, 4439 (major), 4446, 4460, 4468 (major), 4476, 4485-90 (major), 4496. Trading Plan The bull case would look something like base more then head up the levels to 4372-82, dip there, then push higher to 4k, 4424, then ultimately 4468. The big bear case only begins when 4297 fails. I don’t chase and I very obviously would not short the fail there after a 50-point sell. If we test 4297 though, put in a tradeable bounce, then build a nice base, I’d be short 4289 for a move lower down the levels. It could be a very deep one. Wrap Up Bulls put in their latest shot at a relief rally, this time at a very significant, 11 month long support. All other attempts have failed after a day. My general lean is bulls can try a little higher and the bounce is in play as long as 4297 keeps hold. This would look something like base/correct more, then push up the levels to 4366, 4372, 4382, then dip again. Ideally, bulls can hold 4335 or 4322 on any dips today. 4297 fails, we start the next deep leg lower. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.24-9.29Levels to Watch - Resistance : 4378.50 - 74.75 Key Resistance : 4403 - 4392.25 Acceptance in VAL would be needed to regain strength. Support : 4362.75 - 59.50 - 55 Area maybe ? - Market is looking for good Support if can't say within/over the Edge then could target a move towards lower Contract Roll Gap with levels to watch on the way for Targets : 4349.50 - 40.75 - 31.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 - 08.50 ? Depending on how much selling we get if any and if things get real ugly and we can fully fill the lower Contract Gap then we have HTF Key Support at 4291.50-4265.50 spot that started this whole move and a large Cost Basis. Last Week : Last week Market opened and held under 4508 - 02 Resistance area which gave us a break of Key Support and VAH which brought in more selling to take out Swing Stops at the mean and hit all of the lower targets down towards 4375.75 - 59.50 Edge. Friday first gave us a hold and push away from the edge back towards VAL but failed to get over the needed area and instead broke and close under/around the Edge low. This Week : Market is set to open in an interesting spot and around untested from Contract Roll Gap which started this whole move areas. Longs have been getting trapped higher and higher and Supply have been moving lower for some time now and question this week is Do we have enough Supply or Larger Time Frame Sellers to continue and fill the contract roll gap and maybe even try to get inside Key Support ? Or do we get enough short covering here to hold the market up Around this Edge/VAL areas to start consolidating to try and get back inside Value ? If Covering is strong enough but Supply will still be coming out then we could also drift lower in tighter range days from here unless selling will be strong enough. For the Downside : If Market can't stay inside the Edge and get back over 78.50 - 74.75 Resistance / hold over then we could see more selling. We would need to get under 62.75 - 59.50 to targets 49.50 - 45 Which would be an area to watch for any continuation, if we get through and hold under 49.50 we could see continuation towards 30s - 20s with 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 Being potential area for a hold or bounce on first pushes so would have to be careful around these lower areas as there could be good buying order flow around BUT with the way chart is looking and if we still have volume Supply coming out we could easily keep going since size longs would first want to see market hold before putting together positions and any strength right now could just be size short covering at targets and then continuing to look for buyers. 4308.25 - 4291.50 Is another Spot to watch if we get down there. For the Upside : For market to reverse long from here we would have to hold over 4349.50 - 62.75 to test Resistance at 78.50-74.75 Would need to see strength and hold over to target Key Resistance and VAL area which would be the spot to watch for any continuation this week, market would need to accept in VAL to regain strength again, other than that longs might be better from lower potential Supports if they show strength. If Balance : We are around a Key Larger Time Frame Area and if selling wont be as strong here and we still have covering/buying then we could see ourself tighten up ranges and maybe even balance in this 4350 - 80 +/- areas until we build up enough to attempt a move towards VAL or continue lower. Need to be careful around here unless we can continue under 59-45 or 80-92
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
9/28 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The SPX market has been tracking seasonals with extreme precision. The last two weeks of September, which are typically the worst of the year, saw ES selling virtually non-stop from the FOMC last Wednesday until yesterday’s low. After a final flush lower, ES put in a violent relief bounce/short squeeze. This process tracked nicely from Tuesday’s newsletter, with a rally to 4335 followed by a sell-down for a final leg into a new low. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Choppy, down very slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts US GDP report shows a slight slowdown in consumer spending. Key Structures The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into meltdown. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4485 now to set a “sustained bottom”. 4335-40 remains the single most important level. It is the backtest of the 9 month base we broke out on June 1st, that started the “summer 2023 melt-up”. This connects the August 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This remained a battleground zone all week and yesterday, we backtested it from below and continued lower. Support Levels 4308, 4296-97 (major), 4290, 4280, 4268-72 (major), 4258, 4254, 4245, 4231-36 (major), 4213 (major), 4205 (major), 4191, 4180, 4167-72 (major), 4153. Resistance Levels 4314, 4320-22, 4335-40 (major), 4352 (major), 4356, 4366 (major), 4375, 4382 (major), 4390, 4399, 4410, 4419-24 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4465-67 (major), 4485-88 (major). Trading Plan Bulls need to defend 4296-97, the single most important support level. If it fails, it's back into the same old free fall. For those who like counter-trending though, 4267-72 and 4231-36 are good spots to knife catch. On the resistance front, 4335-40 is well-tested now and it could blow through. Preferred spots to engage on the short side would be fresher levels higher up, such as 4366 now as it gives some space. Wrap Up Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1-year-old trendline support. Now, they need to follow through. As long as 4296 keeps hold, we can base build between 4296 and 4335, then take a run to 4366+. If 4296 fails, it's sell again to 4270 then 4235. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Looking for short entry on the $NQ overnight session.I believe price action will play out the way the blue bars are illustrated in the yellow circle. Will be looking for a short entry within the pink box range. A lot of people are calling for a counter-trend rally on the $NQ after this massive move down. But I don't think much more than a 1-4 candle correction will result. And as noted by my projection, I believe it will have been a 1 day correction and a weak one at that. May your P&L be green and fat. This is a long term swing trade with 1st profit target at ~ $13,600. Cheers and good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DegenerateSatoshi
9/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The ultra-bearish confluence we found ourselves in last week has continued with the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally in late September and the breakdown of the ES chart pattern at 4472. This has resulted in a sell-off with a major magnet at the 4335 level. Despite a brief green day and a 45 point bounce, further revisiting of the 4335 level has indicated bad news for the bulls. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle pattern remains the primary pattern. The bulls need to reclaim this pattern at 4485 to set a "sustained bottom". The 4377-83 level has been a significant ceiling and the 4336 level remains the most important level, acting as the backtest of the 9 month base. Support Levels Support levels to watch for are: 4308, 4291-96 (major), 4280 (major), 4269, 4253, 4232-36 (major), 4219, 4212, 4205, 4190, 4181, 4165-70 (major), 4147, 4135, 4125 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to note are: 4314, 4322, 4335-38 (major), 4351-49 (major), 4360, 4366 (major), 4377-4383 (major), 4391, 4400, 4417 (major), 4424, 4439-41 (major), 4449, 4455, 4467 (major), 4485-88 (major). Trading Plan The bear case continuation begins again on the fail of 4290. The best shorts are always backtests on bounces. One possibility would be the loss of today’s low, perhaps 4307 for the final flush into support above. The 4290 breakdown would also be a short, but I’d need extensive acceptance here first then I’d be getting short very high 4270s for a large sell leg again into the 4230s. The bull case would involve ES holding 4291 as the absolute lowest, then reclaiming that level. I’d need to see 4335-38 test, then a sell at the level. Then I’d need to see price return there to accept it and build a base, after which I’d be looking long, perhaps high 4330s. Wrap Up We’re approaching a key support area between 4290 and 4297. This area marks the 50-day moving average and prior swing highs from August. As long as prices hold above 4290-4297, the index may be poised to bounce and put in a relief rally after the recent sell-off. However, if 4290 fails to hold as support, we could see a test of the 4280 level which marks the 200-day moving average. Below 4280, the next major support is around 4232-4236 which was the June low. In summary, 4290-4297 is an important support zone to watch. A bounce from here could signal a relief rally, but breaking below would open the door for a retest of the 200-day MA at 4280 and potentially the June lows. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1
9/26 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week ended with significant selling, the most we've seen since the bull market began nearly a year ago. The selling was anticipated due to a breakdown of a triangle pattern after the FOMC last Wednesday. We experienced four consecutive red days, a rarity, with the largest red day since March 2023 occurring last Thursday. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News Asian stocks lower on more problems in China’s property developers. Key Structures The primary pattern remains the large, multi-month triangle, which we broke down last Wednesday. Bulls need to reclaim this triangle at 4483 to set a sustained bottom. Below there, 4418 is key, with clearance triggering back to 4470+. The 4377-83 trendline, connecting the major swing lows of June 26th and August, is also important to watch. The single most important support level below price right now is 4336, a very significant level. Its defense is crucial for the broader bull market. Support Levels Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4341, 4335 (major), 4322, 4315-13 (major), 4297, 4290 (major), 4280, 4268, 4253 (major), 4232-37 (major), 4212, 4205, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major), 4150. Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4377, 4383 (major), 4393, 4400, 4415-4418 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4460-65 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4523 (major), 4531, 4539 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today would see a base build in the 4353-4383 zone, then a push higher. The push would be level to level, targeting 4393, then heading up to 4415-18. The bear case starts on the fail of 4335. A higher risk short is at 4353. Wrap Up If 4353 fails, we retest 4335, which is a must hold — if that fails, we fall to 4322, then 4313-15. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/25 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up sharply 🔮 Crypto: Down World News The downward price movement continues to be the catalyst that feeds on itself. Last week's selling was primarily due to the breakdown of the ES triangle pattern following the FOMC meeting. The triangle breakdown targeted 4418-24, then 4385, and we reached the 4385 target in one session. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle remains the primary pattern, with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75. Key supports worth watching are 4385, 4366, and 4335. Support Levels Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4344, 4332-35 (major), 4316, 4307, 4296, 4288-90 (major), 4280, 4268, 4262 (major), 4253, 4232-38 (major), 4215, 4200-05 (major), 4192. Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4366 (major), 4370, 4380-83 (major), 4400, 4412, 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4448, 4465 (major), 4470 (major), 4485, 4496 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4516, 4522-25 (major), 4533, 4543 (major). Trading Plan Bears remain in control and any bull case at this point is for a relief bounce only. Bulls have nothing to be excited about until 4418-24 clears, or until we hit 4335 and explode off it with force. Wrap Up We remain in difficult conditions here and the plan is to be as reactive as possible and keep prediction to a minimum. The general lean is that the low is not in by any means, and there is a high chance that 4335 tests this week — 4338.25 already touched today. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.17-9.22Levels to Watch : Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19 Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50 Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75 Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25 Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50 Last Week : Thursday/Friday after the contract roll we ended up in key bigger time frame Range Edge area at 4508-25, we consolidated around it, held above 4508-02 which brought more buying to give us a push and hold over 4532-24 Resistance midweek. From there market was able to take out 4548.75-43.75 and make a move towards our HTF Supply and next target at 4570-62.50. RTH failed to test it and instead we got a push in, consolidation and fail at that area during Thursday Globex and once we got under the Supply and 4448-43 that gave us a nice end of week sell back towards Previous Resistance and then Support at 4508-02 which we ended up breaking and closing under. This Week : Tonight we are set to open under our previous Balance of 4548-43 // 4508-02 area after a failed break out above at the end of the week. Question this week is this just trapped supply from our 4570-62.50 area or is this bigger selling that could possibly give us continuation this week towards our lower targets? Or do we get consolidating around Key Support / Previous Day Low areas and or find strong enough buying to push us back over 4508.75 and keep us in that balance which chance at higher targets? For the Downside : If the Market fails to to get over 4508.75-02.50 and hold above then we could see a break of Previous Day low and test of 4487.25-79.75 Key Support, depending on volume it could take time to get through but IF we do and start holding under that could give us more selling to continue through VAH towards lower targets -- Contract Roll Gap 4465.25-60.25, We have Swing Stops and Mean at 4449.75-34.75 area if we get through 65-60. This would be area to watch and hold under for any continuation, if we do get through it and get more selling we have 4422.75-18.75 and untested after we broke back in from below VAL area at 4416.50-05.50 as potential targets. With next area to watch at 4403-4392.25. For the Upside : Holding under 4524.25-4508.75-02.50 area means continued weakness, longs would need to be done from lower Support areas either on strong bounces or after some consolidations, if we the selling strong then need to be careful and be ready to exit those quicker. If we do get a hold around Previous Day Low / Key Support area or get strong buying to give us a push back over 4508.75 and hold then we could target a move back towards 4519-24.25 which would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher this week. If we do get a push through 4524.25-32.50 we then could target 4570-62.50 RTH test but for now a lot of Supply above so need to be careful. We could get more sideways balancing action in this 4480-90 // 4525 areas unless we can take out and hold under/over targets, Structure under is not very strong so would be surprising to not see any continuation at least towards 65-60 if we can hold under 4508 but we will have to wait and see what we get.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Midday Friday afternoon update. The market experienced a bearish trend with high volatility last week, triggered by the breakdown of the 2-month triangle pattern and the start of the most bearish seasonal cycle of the year. Despite reaching the 4385 level, it's unclear whether a bounce is imminent. The downward trend began with a structure breakdown and will end when resistance clears or a failed breakdown occurs. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signaling higher rates for longer. Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged. Key Structures The primary pattern is the large, multi-month triangle in yellow with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75 (thin grey line). Key supports to watch are 4385, 4366, and 4335. The "final bottom" is only in when the original pattern that started the sell-off reclaims. Support Levels Major support levels are at 4366, 4355, 4330-35, 4322, 4316, 4296, 4285-90, 4268, and 4253. The next major support down is 4366 with 4355 below there. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels are at 4382-85, 4425-18, 4442-39, 4469, 4473-75, 4485, 4505, 4515-20, and 4542-45. The first resistance up is the 4382-85 zone. Trading Plan There is no bull case until a resistance clears, with the first being the 4382-85 zone. A safe bet for longs are always failed breakdowns or the reclaim of a resistance. For shorts, the safer bet is on backtests. The bear case remains strong, but there is high short squeeze risk. Shorts from here are best done on backtests rather than breakdowns. Wrap Up After a week of high volatility and a bearish trend, the market remains uncertain. It's important to remember that the goal is wealth building by stacking and compounding gains day after day, month after month, year after year, not catching every move. As such, trade with caution and protect your profits. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday's FOMC day was filled with volatility and traps, making it a challenging day for trading. ES finished below the support of the key triangle structure at 4470, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite the volatility, smart trading strategies that focused on failed breakdowns and level-to-level profit management yielded lucrative results. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World News US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signalling higher rates for longer. Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. Resistance is at 4550 now, with support at 4473. This pattern has driven trading all month and yesterday we lost support, indicating that bears are in control. A reclaim of this level would see ES push back to 4496, and likely clear it for a move back towards triangle resistance. Support Levels Key support levels for today include 4439-35 (Major), 4425-18 (major), 4407, 4400 (major), 4390, 4382-85 (major), 4377, and 4366 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch out for today are 4448, 4460, 4465, 4473 (major), 4486-88, 4496, 4504 (major), 4514 (major), 4524, 4532, 4542(major), 4548 (major), 4556, 4562, 4566, 4574, 4580-85 (major), 4595-4600, and 4609 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to stay nimble and non-biased, taking level to level pieces and getting to the sidelines. The bearish sentiment means that bounces are likely to fade and supports to melt through. The most important level to track is 4473, which was yesterday’s breakdown point. If we get a relief bounce, the first touch of 4473 probably represents a good short. Wrap Up Post-FOMC trading is complex and requires a reactive approach. The general lean for today is a possible relief bounce to backtest the 4472 zone with 4439 and 4425 being possible spots. ES is likely to reject on that backtest. Always remember to protect your profits and trade smartly, even in volatile market conditions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/20 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News It’s Fed day. Rates will remain unchanged, but the market will be focused on the dot plot showing FOMC member’s interest-rate projections. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern, with 4470 support and 4552 resistance. 4542 is a multi-month magnet level, and 4496-4505 has been a persistent support since September 6th. Support Levels Key support levels for today are 4485 (major), 4470-73 (major), 4460, 4452, 4439 (major), 4433, 4419-24 (major), 4400-04, 4386 (major), 4374, 4366-64, 4355 (major),4343, 4336. Resistance Levels Key resistance levels for today are 4496, 4506-08 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4532, 4537, 4542, 4551-56 (major), 4561, 4566, 4573, 4580 (major), 4590, 4597, 4609 (major), 4618, 4624, 4634, 4643, 4647, 4657 (major), 4665 (major). Trading Plan Today is FOMC day, notorious for its volatility. The plan is to trade light, preferably not trading the action after the meeting at all, especially if a level-to-level piece can be taken before. The key supports to watch are 4485 and 4470-73. If 4470-73 cracks sustainably, we could see a violent, sustained leg down. All longs after that are high-risk knife catches to be done at your own discretion. Wrap Up Today is FOMC day, so the market is poised for volatility. The key is to take it light, protect profits, and watch. On a regular day, the lean would be that ES can base above 4485 (4470-73 lowest), then pop higher to 4506-08, 4515, dip, then push back up towards triangle resistance. If 4470 fails, down we go. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/19 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Slightly lower 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World News FOMC rate announcement set for 2 pm (EST). Key Structures The enduring yellow triangle is still the dominant pattern, now with adjusted support at 4465.25 and resistance at 4499.50. The 4542 level continues to be a multi-month magnet. A breakout above this level could suggest a potential upward move out of the triangle. The 4505-4496 zone remains relevant, especially after the first week of September showed some base-building in this area. Support Levels Supports now sit at: 4465.25 (major), 4473-4467, 4485, 4496, 4504 (major), 4445-43 (major), 4424, 4418 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major), 4377, 4363-65 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances have been adjusted to: 4499.50 (major), 4512, 4515, 4525-27, 4537, 4542 (major), 4547, 4556, 4566 (major), 4578, 4580-85 (major), 4590, 4601, 4609 (major), 4620 (major), 4627, 4634, 4643, 4647-54 (major). Trading Plan The 4504-4496 region remains a crucial support area. Instead of entering long positions here, consider waiting for a dip to 4485 or lower and then a reclaim of yesterday's lows for a bounce play. If the market keeps sliding, 4465.25 becomes the last line of defense as it's the new triangle support. In terms of resistance, 4499.50 and 4542 are pivotal points for potential sell-offs. If ES consolidates between 4496 and yesterday's highs, it could be a good spot to consider adding long exposure. Wrap Up Post-FOMC decisions, ES may still have some room for a relief rally. This scenario remains valid as long as the 4496-4504 zone holds, targeting 4542. If 4496 gives way, caution is advised, with 4465.25 serving as the ultimate support for a deeper sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly World News Numerous major central banks including the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meeting this week as uncertainty around inflation and rates weighs on markets. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. 4465 level being support and resistance being 4560ish now. 4542-45 is a multi-month magnet level. This level has been important since June and will remain a pivot to trade around. 4505 is a key support level that must hold for bulls. Support Levels Supports are: 4496, 4489, 4478 (major), 4468, 4463-65 (major), 4449 (major), 4439, 4432, 4424, 4415-18 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4505 (major), 4511 (major) 4522-25, 4532 (major), 4537, 4542-45 (major), 4549, 4556-4558 (major), 4569, 4574, 4580-84 (major), 4591, 4603, 4609 (major), 4614, 4622, 4633, 4643-45 (major), 4653 (major). Trading Plan Bull case today: Bears control until a resistance clears, and that is the 4505-12 zone right now. This would start a push up the levels to 4532, possibly as high as 4542-45. Bear case today: Bears have the ball still. The obvious magnets on the downside are 4479, then 4463 triangle support. Wrap Up We just had a 65 point single day selloff and it's extremely hard to have any predictability from here. My general lean though is that we can relief bounce ideally from last Friday’s lows. This would look something like test 4505-11, perhaps dip or base, then push up to the 4530s. If ES clearly struggles to get off the floor and above 4505-11, then we continue down directly with 4494 a possible trigger. Magnet remains 4479 then 4463. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Learn To Trade Breakout/Flags More Efficiently - Part IIn my first tutorial, I tried to show how price channels can be used to identify and validate strong trade setups. Additionally, I attempted to show you how to identify better trade setups from what I consider invalid trade setups. Understanding and maintaining at least a 2:1 Reward-to-risk factor for any trade you consider taking is essential. Secondly, it is essential to understand and use proper allocation levels for trades. The simple way to understand allocation levels is to focus on the RISK amount. If your trade risks $5 per share and you can't afford to risk $500 on this trade, then you should NOT attempt to trade 100 shares of this stock. Set your risk level based on how much you intend to risk for the trade - nothing more. If you can only risk $250, then you would only trade 50 shares. If you can only risk $125, then you would only trade 25 shares. Learning to find and identify proper trade setups on Daily and Weekly charts is critical for success in the long run. I firmly believe price tells us everything we need to know about a chart, and indicators reflect price. As you continue to learn some of the techniques I use in various price chart setups, I hope you can refine your techniques to become better traders. I will likely create a PART II and PART III version of these types of advanced trade setups. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SSOEducation
by BradMatheny
9/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to 4540ish, saw a dip, then continued up to 4560+. We are now up 65 points from Wednesday’s low, but with heavy resistances overhead. Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World News UAW strike closes Ford, GM, and Stellantis factories. Key Structures A large triangle has formed with 4460 level being support and resistance being 4562-65. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4460-4565 is a broad chop range. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. The 4460 support level connects the two rising August lows. Higher lows means uptrend and if August 20th was “the bottom” for any type of sustained uptrend - that will need to hold. Support Levels The major support levels are 4543-45, 4529-32, 4506, 4476, 4461, 4425, 4418, and 4392. These are not comprehensive and some are simply select major structures to take note of. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are 4562, 4573, 4580-4584, 4609, 4640, and 4648. We are closing Thursday at major resistance, having arrived finally at triangle resistance — noted in the dashed green and red horizontal lines. This is a big level, a complex level, and a level that will take time to work through. Trading Plan My trading plan for Friday is to trade small and seldomly, with the only objective being to protect my profits from this week. I have no edge after a large one directional move and I expect messy, complex action. For those longing, I would recommend small size and freefall risk is high. Only levels marked as major are spots for knife catches. If we continue the push higher, for those looking for counter-trends 4580-84 would be one spot to engage as would 4609. Wrap Up We've just had the clean move I had been waiting on all week and now is time for price discovery and waiting for price to show its hand. We are currently at a major resistance zone, with the RSI highly extended and the easy money is made on the long side. Given I have exceeded my profit average for the week by a significant margin, I will largely be sidelined on Friday. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/14 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September. Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Up World News More stimulus for the Chinese economy as the PBoC lower the bank reserve rate Key Structures A large triangle has formed with 4459 level being support and resistance being 4565-70. This is the core pattern for September and everything between 4459-4570 is a broad chop range. The pattern has a mild 60% upward resolution bias, but traders need to be prepared to trade it whichever way it breaks. Support Levels Supports are at 4516, 4512, 4502 (major), 4496, 4486, 4468-72 (major), 4459 (major), 4443, 4438 (major), 4425, 4418, 4410, 4400, 4392(major), 4377, 4366, 4355 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4522 (major), 4528, 4532-35 (major), 4540-42 (major), 4549, 4556, 4565-70 (major), 4573, 4580, 4585 (major), 4598, 4605-08 (major), 4617, 4624, 4633 (major), 4642, 4647-50 (major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673. Trading Plan Bulls control as long as 4502 keeps holding. If it does, resistance of the triangle at 4565-70 remains the macro target. If 4502 fails, bears win and traders should consider shorting for a move down the levels, likely to 4460 at least. Trading within the 4500-4540 range is unpredictable and price will play the levels. Wrap Up Despite the volatility and traps of CPI trading days, Wednesday showed that with careful planning and strategy, it's possible to navigate these challenges successfully. The key is to wait for the initial trap or two, take profits at the first major level, then get out and hold a runner in case we trend. This approach makes these difficult, trap-filled days very high win rate, easy sessions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/13 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The market experienced a choppy session yesterday with both bulls and bears getting trapped. The price confusion was expected due to today's CPI. After a 60-point relief bounce from Thursday's low to Monday's highs, the market spent much of yesterday swinging in a wide, bi-directional range. The session was spent mostly in the 4520-4540 ping pong zone. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World News Monthly core inflation prints much hotter than expected at 0.3% vs the 0.2% consensus. Key Structures A large triangle has formed with 4454 level being support and resistance being 4570ish now. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4454-4570 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4516, 4525 (major), 4532 (major), 4540-42, 4545-47 (major), 4556, 4562, 4569-72 (major), 4581, 4585 (major), 4590, 4597, 4605-4609 (major), 4615, 4630-33 (major), 4638, 4648(major), 4658, 4666 (major), 4673, 4681 (major). Trading Plan Today is CPI Day and it is expected to be one of the most volatile, random, difficult, and trap-filled days of the year. The introduction of an external data catalyst introduces an enormous amount of sometimes impossible to trade algo-driven noise. The rule for trading these days is to size down and do not over-trade. There is absolutely no reason to incur a large loss on a day that all traders know fully in advance will be challenging. It is not uncommon to see 100+ point moves both ways. Wrap Up In summary, there is no predictability to CPI days and one can only know the levels and be prepared to react. These are my least favorite days to trade of the year. If it were a normal day (which is all I can go by), my general lean is as long as 4503-4497 defends, that we push back to 4540s, perhaps dip once more, then try the run to triangle resistance at 4569-72. That is the decision point and it needs to breakout to formally start the next leg up. 4497 fail and we work down the levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/12 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly World News G20 ends with very little progress or policy change aside from pledge on renewables. Key Structures The large, triangle that has formed with the 4450 level being support and resistance being 4572 is now the core pattern for September. Everything between 4450-4572 is a broad chop range/play ground for ES. This could easily fill out all month. These patterns have a mild 60% upward resolution bias. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
9/11 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanIMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely. Recap Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red days. It began with the key support at 4493 cracking on Wednesday, triggering shorts for a 2-day flush. However, by last Friday, we saw the first post-selloff relief rally of about 40 points. The relief bounce was anticipated, with an entry at 4448 provided for it. This played out well, with a run to 4466-73 overnight on Thursday, followed by a dip, and then a rally on Friday morning. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World News US dollar slides as BoJ Governor Ueda hints Japan may end negative interest rates before the end of the year. Key Structures The first week of September, known for its volatility, bearishness, and difficulty, lived up to its reputation. With CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead, the volatility is far from over. Notably, a large triangle has formed, with the 4448 level being support and resistance being 4572. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4448-4572 is a broad chop range for ES. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro