ES Levels 12/5 going into NFP FridayGoing to sit out of the release and see how Price Action plays out.
I am expecting lower before the move higher (even if it is just a wick from the release)
Es!1
The Anomaly Price Event May Hit Before December 31Just before the US Presidential Elections, I published a detailed research report suggesting the markets may move into a low-liquidity event that could be very dangerous for traders.
My Adaptive Dynamic Learning (AI) predictive modeling system highlighted a range of price volatility just after the election showing a very real downward price event. If this event takes place, we may see the SPY/QQQ fall more than 5.5% while other sectors may fall more than 10.5%.
What is interesting is the post-election rally pushed some SPDR sectors above the upper ADL predicted price range. This means price is now very overbought in terms of expected levels.
Any reversion could prompt a very solid downward price move and catch many traders by surprise.
I'm watching my Crash Index and the XLF & XLRE sectors for any signs of a breakdown.
I suggest all of you move to protect capital as we move into the end of 2024 and prepare for what may become a very violent and volatile Anomaly Price Event.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat-Down pattern may continue the rolling top pattern in my Crash Index - suggesting the markets are consolidating after the post-Election rally phase.
I continue to warn traders this low liquidity market phase will likely prompt some very big volatility in price action between the election and, roughly, January 5-10. Stay cautious.
I believe the markets are starting to revert a bit downward and I believe this is a very healthy move for the markets - especially after the post-election rally phase.
We need the markets to resolve back into a moderation phase before attempting to make another bigger move to the upside. So, watching the markets potential roll over and fall about 3~5% would not surprise me.
Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly strong rally phase. This could be coupled with a moderate US Dollar decline.
Bitcoin rallied above $103k over the past 24 hour - WOW. Buckle up - the Bitcoin crew will be out in force with their memes and other comments.
Remember, play these market moves safely. If you can afford to take the lumps, don't trade too much capital with each trade.
Going to be a very interesting holiday as I believe liquidity will continue to erode and present even more volatility.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ES All Time High Breakout And Targets 12/4Similar to NQ, ES has surged past its previous all-time highs, with a new target of 6,183.75. Since ES has already pulled back to retest the previous highs, it has the potential to continue its rally straight toward the target, but may run into some resistance at the 6,100 level. Stay alert for that ATH price action! 📈 #ES #S&P500 #AllTimeHighs #StockMarket
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-04: Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will run into resistance in early trading and roll downward at some point after reaching resistance.
I see the markets opening much higher this morning as the SPY/QQQ are both broadly rallying overnight.
This type of GAP UP opening often leads to the identification of price resistance and a rollover topping formation where price attempts to trail downward to fill the GAP.
The concept that my SPY Cycle Patterns new this was likely many months before today's price action happens is rather unique. And this is why I love my SPY Cycle Patterns.
The is no other place where you can attempt to clearly see into the future like using my SPY Cycle Patterns.
Gold and Silver are still struggling today - but should attempt to make a rally move higher over the next 5+ trading days. Until we break above the Flag High level, Gold and Silver are trapped in a sideways price range.
Bitcoin is also trapped in a sideways price range after reaching recent highs.
As I warn in this video - be prepared for very unusual price action and events over the next 30+ days. I believe we are about to see some very unusual political and economic events play out.
Keep a healthy CASH reserve and trade small quantities right now. Better to protect cash than to risk it on unknowns right now.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-3: Gap ReversalToday's Gap Reversal pattern in a Counter-Trend mode suggests the SPY & QQQ will experience an opening price GAP - followed by a reversal of trend - possibly to the upside.
I believe we need to watch how the GAP forms at the open to determine if we are likely to see an upward or downward price trend throughout the rest of the day.
My analysis suggests an upside price move is more likely than a downward price move today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold and Silver appear ready for a liftoff. Silver appears to be attempting to break above the recent high price levels and Gold should follow along.
I believe any Gold and Silver are poised for a big rally phase - but that rally will come when the US Dollar advance stalls and pulls downard a bit.
Bitcoin is still trending in a Flagging formation - setting up the Phase #2 of a Bullish Excess Phase Peak. We need to watch for a breakdown in price - possibly sending BTCUSD down to $80k-$82k.
I urge traders to stay cautious (Still). This is not the time to be aggressive as I still believe the low liquidity in the markets will present a very real risk of a volatility event (the Anomaly Event I keep suggesting is likely).
Remember, if you can't take the lumps, stop and rethink what you are trying to trade.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-2: Tmp Bottom PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move a bit higher after finding support in early trading.
The one BIG event over the past 5+ trading days is the SPY rallying above the Ultimate High level - breaking into a confirmed Bullish price trend.
This is part of what I'm trying to teach you: the patterns, techniques, thinking, and logic behind my decisions are based on mechanical price structures/processes. Once you understand the structures and price patterns, it is simple to try to understand.
Fibonacci Price Theory teaches you to follow price as the ultimate indicator - measuring and marking ultimate, unique, and standout highs/lows as trigger points.
AnchorBar theory teaches us to watch for breakaway or breakdown bars as precise indications of price trend direction/momentum.
The Excess Phase Peak patterns represent a more nuanced price pattern that can assist us in determining the current "phase" of the markets and how we can expect prices to react to that phase.
If you understand these three concepts, I believe you, as a trader, can unlock any price action and determine what type of trend we are currently in for any symbol/interval and where your opportunity lies for potential trades.
I will continue to delve further into trading and teaching techniques to reinforce these techniques in the future.
Stay cautious as the markets are still struggling to find a post-election trend.
The Anomaly Event is still likely, but the probability of such an event has fallen to about 30-40% overall.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.01 - 12.06.24Last Week :
Last week market opened up inside the Value of this 930s - 650s HTF Range, beginning of the week we were able to stay around the Value and balance inside this 620 - 970s Intraday Range with pushes out of Value that got sold back in. Wednesday again opened over Value and sold back in with RTH Volume but closed right under VAH to finish regular trading week. Shortened holiday sessions didnt have much supply so we were able to hold over VAH which build up stops that got squeezed in upper Edge once end of week covering came in on Friday.
This Week :
This is technically the first tag of this new HTF Range Edge since our first push towards it failed just shy of it. More often than not first tests of big areas like an Edge provide a reaction in the oppositive direction, of course we could say the push that gave us selling from this area the first time was it and that this time we may hold long or continue but because this move was during shortened holiday sessions we need to watch out with looking for continuation from here unless market can hold over 640s - 50s, stay around/inside the Edge AND get through 670s with Edge top and start holding over it. Until this happens I would be looking for us to either try and balance around this Current Intraday Range of 620s - 670 which we pushed into Friday or if the buying just pushes us up during lighter volume days and wont stick come next week then we can see a move back towards VAH and if we can't hold over it then its possible to see continuation back inside the Value/Mean and if we have enough supply a push for lower VAL.
We have HTF stops built up there under 970s if that area gets taken it could bring in more selling to give us an Edge to Edge move from bottom to the top, if we can't take the stops at VAL then we could continue to balance inside this Value building Supply.
This is new month and last month of the year, will we start our first week with a sell towards the buyers who are under 940s or do we have enough buying to give us a hold over Value and try to test new one ?
On Daily TF we are still inside a 5720s - 6070s Range and currently we are inside Daily Edge, if we can't get through it then possible return towards Daily VAH which is in 980 - 60s Area.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-27: BreakAway PatternHappy day before Thanksgiving, everyone.
Stay safe this holiday and remember to share hugs and love with all the people that are the most important in your life.
Trading will be there tomorrow and the next day - always.
Family, health, and loved ones always come before trading/work.
Today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I suspect the SPY will still struggle near the 600 level and possibly REJECT into a downward price trend over the next 5+ trading days.
The QQQ is showing a very clear Flagging formation whereas the SPY is showing more overall strength.
Gold and Silver make a big GAP move higher. This is nice to see. I still believe Gold will attempt to rally above $3000 before the end of 2024 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35 before the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is now moving into a projected consolidation phase. The pending breakdown phase may see Bitcoin move down to the $74k to GETTEX:82K level. Buckle up.
Remember, we are going to have Thanksgiving holiday and shortened trading hours. If you have not already moved a large portion of your capital into CASH, you could be taking unwanted risks.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next.
Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle.
The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that?
If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure.
The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver.
If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down.
I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen.
So, be prepared just in case.
Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD.
Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process.
If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently.
The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess.
This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY 11/22 PlanUntil we are able to break above the trendline, We will continue to chop
Look at where they closed yesterday, right at it, and rejected.
We have to be patient, the move will come...
One thing to notice though was the retest of the trendline, as of now the retest was able to close above the trendline, but we need to see volume coming in for this move to happen.
If we go below 592 again, i believe we retest 589 fast.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-25-24 - Carryover TrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Trend mode. Obviously, this is a holiday week, and because of low liquidity, I expect to see moderately wild price volatility.
Stay cautious, as price moves could be exaggerated this week.
Gold and Silver are still attempting to break higher and trading in a consolidated sideways price channel.
BTCUSD pauses into the holiday week.
This would be a good week to pause, read a good book, and avoid the risks in the global markets.
This shortened trading week will likely result in very wild price swings.
Stay cautious.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NQ GAPFILLGood Morning traders
According to a report discussed on the r/FuturesTrading subreddit, the NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures) fills the gap approximately 77% of the time on Mondays.
Don't forget to follow
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.24 - 11.29.24Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened and held over lower ranges Value which put is in this 940 - 880+/- Distribution Balance, holding under 930s Edge kept giving us weakness into lower VAH but Tuesday Pre Market move into Value failed after tagging the Mean, prices were able to hold and climb back over the Edge which brought stability and more buying to close things up with a push/hold inside above Value.
This Week:
We have a tricky week coming up as we have End of the Month Week, Holiday, Supply inside and above current Value and buying/cost basis that we built up under 940s. This could lead towards slower back and forth trading inside/around this Value. Probably not a week to push for too much continuation on either side and maybe watch for smaller ranges. We are now inside 970 - 620 Intraday Range and if we have enough supply around/above it and buying under that could keep the price balancing around it. Unless volume comes in to knock us back down under VAL and can get us under 940s or make a push over 620s and start holding over 630+ then id be careful on holding too long or looking for big moves on either side, might be more of consolidation choppier trading.
On Daily TF we have again made a move under Smaller MA, made a push for but no tag of anything bigger under and popped back out to finish the week, we may require more sideways action in this current HTF Range of 930s - 650s +/- Before we would be ready for any bigger corrections and this could take time to set up, and of course we arent looking for much higher prices unless we can built up under above Edge and get a good push through it with a hold without coming back in. Time to be careful and tighten up.
es! to the moon!A Santa Claus rally is the sustained increase in the stock market that occurs around the Christmas holiday on Dec. 25. Most estimate these rallies happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see trends that begin Christmas Day through Jan. 2.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-22: Tmp-Bottom PatternToday's Temp-Bottom pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
If this pattern plays out as I suspect, we'll see the SPY and QQQ move lower, with the SPY attempting to move to the 588-590 area and the QQQ attempting to move to the 499-500 area.
I still believe the current setup promotes a breakdown in price based on the current Flagging formation related to the broad Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Nothing tells me the markets are going to rally at this stage. Unless we get above the Peak levels of these patterns, the most logical outcome is a breakdown in price leading to a Phase #3 EPP consolidation low.
Gold and Silver are starting to make a very big recovery rally - just as I suggested weeks ago.
It is great to see this move in Gold - although Silver is lagging a bit. Silver will rally, but it will rally slower than Gold at this point.
There is a real chance Gold could be trading above $3000 before the end of 2024. Buckle up.
BTCUSD came within $1000 of my $100,500 target level overnight. WOW.
This last $1000 move higher should be reached today.
Once we get above $100,500 on BTCUSD, expect it to try to roll into a new pullback and setup a new EPP Flagging formation.
That is what price does, it is either TRENDING or FLAGGING.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-21 : Harami Inside PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will consolidate in a Harami-Inside day type of price action.
In today's video, I highlight the continued potential for a price Anomaly event, even though we are seeing mostly post-election bullish price activity.
I do believe the proposed Anomaly event is highly likely headed into the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season.
Gold and Silver may stall a bit before attempting to rally further. Silver is not reacting similar to Gold, thus I have concerns that metals may stall a bit before attempting a bigger move higher.
BTCUSD is on track to rally up to $100k - just as I predicted.
Get some today.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bitcoin Breaks To New Highs - $100.5K Is The Likely TargetI created this short video to help traders understand how Fibonacci Price Theory works using BTCUSD.
This move suggests that BTCUSD will attempt to rally above $95k and target $100.5k in the next trending phase.
BTCUSD broke away from the Excess Phase peak Flagging formation (#2) very clearly today.
At this point, there is very little downside price risk unless price breaks below $86.8k.
I also review Gold/Silver and the SPY/QQQ to help traders prepare for the BIG SHIFT into my proposed Anomaly Event.
Here we go..
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 11-18: No INTERNET IssueMorning guys.
Something odd happened today after I created a great 45-minute morning video.
TradingView reported an Internet Issue even though my internet was working perfectly???
So, I DOWNLOADED the video so I have a record of it and posted it up elsewhere.
I don't know what to say - except check my profile on TradingView.
I was not going to try to replicate my 45 minute recording after experiencing this issue.
Get Some.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.17 - 11.22.24Last Week :
Last week played out very well even though middle of the week had us thinking that maybe market will continue to hold inside Value above 970s as we kept getting buying in that area but it just took time to build up for the break of that cost basis at VAL to give us more selling end of week. Sunday Globex again opened over Value and grinded towards the upper Edge but we had no tag or push inside it which signaled weakness and as noted if that did no happen we needed to be careful looking for acceptance inside that new range and instead possibly look for this move to return back toward previous Edge and get back under 930s to possibly signal a failed new ATH break out by getting back under Previous ATH Consolidation. We first failed over Value and got the push back inside to correct the Poor low from Previous Weeks Friday Globex which was around the Mean area of that range which kept getting buying that gave us moves back to VAH but we slowly transitioned into correction first on Hourly then on 2hr and finally on 4hr to end the week on Friday with a break/hold under VAL smaller cost basis which gave us more weakness and selling to finish the Week under the lower Edge.
This Week :
So far looking at the structure of Daily/Weekly and the way we closed on Friday we could gather some info to help us go into this week. On Weekly TF we had a failed break out into new balance over 5950 which returned back inside Previous Balance of 950 - 660s, on Daily TF we hit a key upper Edge of the Range, held under it, built some supply and got back trough its VAH and made a move under its Mean area, under Previous ATHs consolidating potentially signaling a failed new ATH break out with a strong close under the smaller Daily MA. On Hourly's we have trapped Supply in above Range and reversed the whole move back under 930 - 13 Edge.
All of this so far screams weakness and continuation lower to me, of course we have to be careful as market could hold and start balancing here above lower Mean/Value and even try to get back inside and over upper Edge which could bring stability back but I think we would need to do all that and be able to hold over 930s AND get back over above VAL in order to see real stability or strength return.
Holding under the Hourly's Edge and under Daily Mean/under Previous ATHs we are looking for possible continuation towards 840s - 20s areas which would put us inside lower Value with a visit of its VAL which is also Daily VAL, these areas could provide covering if we get there BUT if we get through them then we can't forget about our favorite Previous Distribution Balance which market liked returning back into so much into 800 - 750s area which kept having our strong bids that would give us pushes away this is also Daily Edge low as that is a potential return target after failing at upper Edge. Will we get all the way there this week or not ? who knows but that is our possibility and something to watch moves towards as the week develops, question is when or if we get there will that area act as absorption area of all this Supply coming out and be enough to give us a good hold OR we have some nice longer TF stops under it which if we took could give us more supply to try another push for our lower Roll Gap which we have been building up to fill. This seems like a big move so maybe not all the way to fill the gap but it is in the cards if the weakness continues as that is also around Previous Weekly balance lows and if we get under 820 - 05 ( Weekly mid ) then that open the doors for it.
To think higher prices from here again we would need either a strong bid to push us back through the upper Edge and be able to hold over 920-30s AND have the buying to eventually get us back inside above Value, or at least hold over 860s, consolidate without going lower and make a push for upper Edge. Until then will watch the short side or some sort of consolidation balance to be playing out.
