NQ Aiming for All Time HighsNQ & ES Are looking Strong, And Respecting Bullish PD Arrays, And April usually having a Rally going into May, Am expecting NQ to hit All time Highs.
Es!1
Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control but facing the after-hours earnings event, which could bring sudden volatility.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5067, 5058 (major), 5048
Major Supports: 5036-33 (major), 5010 (major), 4996-5000 (major), 4935-40 (major), 4904-08 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5080-82 (major), 5092 (major), 5108 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5145-50 (major), 5177-81 (major)
Major Resistances: 5222, 5243-46 (major), 5272 (major)
Trading Strategy
Earnings Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable price action and adjust your strategy in real-time.
Trading the Range: Expect price to play within the broad 5036-5126 range. Exercise caution and consider bids/shorts within the range rather than chasing direction.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5067 or 5058 after earnings. Focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5126-29, 5145-50, or the major 5177-81 zone if reached. Given earnings, approach shorts very cautiously.
Profit-Taking: Use level-to-level profit-taking on any position taken, given the increased volatility risk.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the current 5036-33 major support is critical.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5108 zone for a potential run to the next major target areas of 5126-29 and 5145-50.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5036 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 26th, 2024
Economic Environment
March PCE inflation report and its impact on the Fed's policy decisions.
Apollo Global's acquisition of US Silica and implications for the materials sector.
Stock Market Updates
Mixed signals from global markets amidst geopolitical tensions.
Bank of Japan's interest rate policy.
Global Market News
Market response to various corporate earnings and announcements.
Additional Market News
Bond market dynamics and potential interest rate cuts.
Gold's performance and investment implications.
Currency market updates and the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions.
Additional Market Insights and News
Economic Indicators and Outlook
US GDP and Economic Growth: Analysis of the latest GDP report and its implications for growth trends.
Corporate Earnings Outlook: Forecasts for 2024 and sector-specific performance expectations.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Understanding the relationship between inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings.
Labor Market Dynamics: Assessing the health of the labor market and its impact on consumer spending and corporate profitability.
Technological Advancements and Market Shifts
Generative AI and Business Transformation: How is GenAI impacting decision-making and efficiencies in various industries.
Quantum Computing and Competitive Edge: Exploring the potential of quantum computing in various sectors and its implications for competitive advantage.
Sustainable Technology Initiatives: The increasing focus on green technologies and the integration of sustainability with innovation.
Industry Cloud Platforms (ICPs): Examining the adoption of ICPs and their role in accelerating digital transformation.
Reminder: The after-hours earnings events introduce major volatility risk. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.21 - 4.26Last Week :
Last week Globex opened and pushed out of Value of 5227 - 5066 Range, by RTH Open we were able to make a push over 5207.50 the Edge low but we needed acceptance over 5207 - 04 area and instead selling came in which took us through the Mean and right through VAL of that Range without any buyers being at VAL, instead we got covering and buying under Value which gave us the consolidation between the bottom Edge and VAL of that Range until Mid Week. After shorts were done covering and no stronger buying came in to push us back inside Value we continued for the lower Stops through the 5086 - 66 Edge and eventually made a move from the Edge to VAH, Mean and VAL of the lower Range.
This time around we found buying at VAL of the range and we finished Friday with a pulled back to VAH, push above Value and saw selling come in to bring the price back inside Value and close at the Mean of the range, this was perfect scenario to end the week as we know markets like to find areas to balance in and closing inside Value is signaling potential balance.
This Week :
Going into this week we have now accepted in this 5086 - 4925 Range, Month End is upon us, and we have our Settlement Ranges and Supply above VAH and above 5086 - 66 Edge.
Can the market continue lower ? Yes. Can the market get a big bounce and go back over 5050 - 60 - 80s? Sure it's possible. Anything can happen but for now to keep us grounded we have few things that the structure is showing us.
We can clearly see Supply and Sellers above VAH, we can see that around VAL and under Value we have buying or at least SIZE short covering which has and can keep us up, if we didn't have that then Friday we would have kept going and taken that VAL and ON Low which we created on the scary Thursday flush. Of course doesn't mean covering will still be there this week and that sellers will still be over VAH but until it shows us otherwise we can't force for big continuations under Value or hope for big bounces over 5050 areas. One of the scenarios to look for after big moves up and down like we had is for market to find some balance, could this be the Range we will do it in ? If that will be the case then we can spend quite a bit of time around this 5086 - 4925 Range until we see clear moves and acceptances over/under it.
If this will be the case we will look to spend most of our time trading around Value of this Range and pushes outside of Value to find their way back in. This could be the case for more than just this week but for now we will play it week at the time because who knows. We will want to focus mostly on 5066 - 5013 // 5019 - 4967 and 4972 - 20 Intraday Ranges.
Trading level to level catching 10-15 point moves between them is ideal if we start balancing in Value because that tells us we have buyers and sellers, might need to be patient letting the moves properly set up as the volatility has been pretty crazy recently, not a time to be a hero forcing for big moves in my opinion.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5019 - 4967
Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75
Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25
Key Support 4972 - 67
IF Accept Under 4972 - 67
Means 4955.75 - 4952.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75
Key Support and Edge Low 4925.25 - 20
IF Accept Over 5019 - 13.75
Means 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance and Bottom of top Edge 5066.50 - 60.75
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5088-92 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067
Major Supports: 5054-57 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5005-10 (major), 4966 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5104 (major), 5115-20 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5171-75 (major)
Major Resistances: 5191 (major), 5225, 5240-45 (major)
Trading Strategy
Trading the Chop Zone: The 5088-5115 range is currently a choppy, congested zone. Exercise caution with overtrading and consider sniping within the zone over chasing direction.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5088-92 or 5077. After earnings, focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5115 or the major 5171-75 zone if reached. Given earnings, a breakout of the current flag pattern is possible and could be considered, but use caution.
Profit-Taking: With Meta earnings, use level-to-level profit-taking on any position.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the current bull flag structure (5088-5115) is critical. Look for a base building within this range or a breakout.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5133-36/5155 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171-75.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5077 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 25th, 2024
Earnings Releases
Meta Earnings: Reports weak revenue guidance, drops 16%.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 24th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining control after yesterday's rally but price action becoming more complex after a trend day.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5095-5100 (major), 5082, 5076 (major), 5067
Major Supports: 5056 (major), 5047-45 (major), 5027 (major), 4996-5000, 4966 (major), 4945-49 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5120 (major), 5136 (major), 5171 (major), 5190 (major)
Major Resistances: 5220 (major), 5246 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Trend Caution: After a significant move yesterday, be aware of complex price action and increased potential for traps. Prioritize caution over conviction.
Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of post-trend days, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5090 (after it's reclaimed) or on major supports (5056, 5046-45). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5136 and particularly 5171 for shorting. A breakdown below 5076 could open up downside targets, with level-to-level profit-taking.
Risk Management: Scale back position sizing and be prepared to potentially take some losses while price discovery takes place.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5045 zone is encouraging for bulls.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5120/5136 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5095, within a bull flag pattern, could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045 triggers the downside move, while a short-term failure of 5076 could lead to a dip. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 24th, 2024
Economic Environment
IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and lingering risks.
US Dollar's strength despite expectations of decline.
Economic indicators: Focus on upcoming employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving.
Stock Market Updates
S&P 500 performance: new highs followed by a downturn due to inflation concerns.
Additional Market News
Boeing's quarterly performance and supply chain stabilization.
Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you'd like any changes!
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at key resistance after yesterday's recovery day.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5040 (major), 5032, 5020 (major)
Major Supports: 4996 (major), 4959 (major), 4938 (major), 4903 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5057 (major), 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5115 (major)
Major Resistances: 5129 (major), 5141 (major), 5167 (major), 5186-90 (major)
Trading Strategy
The 5040 Battleground Continues to be critical. Observe for breakouts or breakdowns with close attention.
Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5040 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5032 or on major supports (4959, 4938). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5081 and particularly 5102 for shorting. A breakdown below 5020 could open up downside targets.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5040 zone is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081/5102 zone for a sustained recovery attempt.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5057 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5020 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4975 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 23rd, 2024
Economic Environment
US GDP growth and the impact of interest rates on corporate America.
IMF projections for global economic growth and inflation expectations.
Bond market signals regarding Federal Reserve policy.
Market Analysis
Upcoming economic data releases: GDP estimate and key inflation measure.
Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966
Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major)
Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major)
Trading Strategy
Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact.
Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt.
Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024
Economic Environment
IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing.
Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector.
Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends.
Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China.
Market Focus
Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors.
Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving.
Additional Market News
Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports.
Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning.
Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.14 - 04.19Last Week :
Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 - 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge.
If the market wasn't weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range.
This week :
This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ?
Friday we did a look below 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn't accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 - 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 - 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 - 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops.
For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 - 54.25 and 5174.25 - 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 - 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again.
Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 // 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25
Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 - 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50
Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there.
IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 - 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 - 07.50 area.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033
Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major)
Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major)
Trading Strategy
Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move.
Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control.
Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting.
News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024
Economic Environment
Inflation remains a factor despite a decline.
Corporate profits show resilience.
Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US.
Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news.
Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders weighing the implications of inflation, economic signals, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5066, 5060, 5054
Major Supports: 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5000-5005 (major), 4990, 4966, 4932-36 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5082-77 (major), 5090, 5103 (major), 5115-5120 (major)
Major Resistances: 5148-50 (major), 5170-75 (major), 5191, 5224, 5287 (major)
Trading Strategy
Focus on Key Levels: The market is sandwiched between critical support at 5045-47 and resistance at 5082-77. Breakouts in either direction will determine the next directional move.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5045-47 with failed breakdowns, or at major supports (5000-5005 if reached). Prioritize knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts on backtests of the 5082-77 zone, 5115-20, or 5148-50. A failure of 5045-47 opens the downside, with potential shorts below 5037.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to reclaim 5077-82 for a strong signal, then potentially 5115-20.
Holding Support: Continued defense of the 5045-47 trendline is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength.
Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5077-82 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045-47 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting.
News: Top Stories for April 18th, 2024
Economic Environment
Inflation declines but remains a factor in market analysis.
Corporate profits show resilience.
Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US.
Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news.
Global Markets
IMF Global Financial Stability Report discusses market optimism and expected policy easing.
Reminder: The market is reacting to key levels and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major)
Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major)
Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major)
Trading Strategy
Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction.
Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom.
Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above.
Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first.
News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024
Federal Reserve Focus
Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts.
Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest.
Market Performance & Sectors
S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary.
Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform.
Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings.
Earnings & Corporate News
Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health.
United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy.
International Economic & Monetary Policies
President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry.
ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook.
Additional Market Updates
Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications.
Chinese economic growth.
Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada.
Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079
Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major).
Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major)
Trading Strategy
Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts.
Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management.
Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way.
News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty.
Economic Outlook
IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease.
US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends.
Inflation & Fed Rates
CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts.
Treasury yields react to inflation data.
Corporate & Market News
Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs.
Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns.
Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies.
Investment Outlooks
Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions.
Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in.
Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.
$ES and $NQ Long term outlook.Indices haven't had a good retracement for a while now, so I'm looking to see if we can reach low for some liquidity.
With the current climate of the world and the FED not cutting rates, it also adds to the idea.
I'm looking to target the Weekly OB on SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ
And the Swing Low inside the Weekly FVG on ES
SP500 Forecast: Navigating Bearish Trends Towards New All-Time HThe S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high."
Cela semble indiquer que vous prévoyez une baisse temporaire du S&P 500 vers les niveaux de prix mentionnés, avant qu'il ne reprenne sa tendance haussière et crée de nouveaux sommets historiques.
User
traduit moi ça en anglais
ChatGPT
"The S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Highly uncertain due to major geopolitical headline risk over the weekend. Expect significant volatility and potential for large gaps up or down at the Sunday open.
Important Note: The escalating tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to cause significant market disruptions. BE PREPARED for a wide range of outcomes, substantial gaps on the open, and rapidly changing market conditions.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5163 (major), 5155, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major)
Major Supports: 5120, 5115, 5108, 5102-5097 (major), 5091, 5082 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5177 (major), 5185, 5192-95 (major), 5203 (major)
Major Resistances: 5218 (major), 5228-30 (major), 5245 (major), 5262
Trading Strategy
Weekend Headlines: Be prepared for anything related to the Iran/Israel situation. This news will dominate market reaction.
Adaptability is Key: Market conditions could change rapidly, prioritize flexibility and risk management.
Sunday Open: Focus on how the market opens and reacts to the news. Large gaps are possible in either direction.
Long Opportunities: Due to the high risk, only consider longs after the initial reaction and if a stable support zone forms. Potential bids at 5163, reclaiming 5155, or (depending on the open) reclaiming 5177. Emphasis on failed breakdowns.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of any breakdown levels if a strong sell-off occurs. Potentially 5177, 5219, or 5228 if those levels are reached.
Knife-Catch Mode: If necessary, use the knife-catch protocol for longs, with small size and emphasis on failed-breakdowns.
Bull Case
De-escalation: A move towards de-escalation or resolution of the Iran situation could lead to a sharp rebound.
Reclaiming 5177: If 5177 is reclaimed with acceptance above, bulls may drive a recovery towards targets of 5195, 5202, 5219.
Bear Case
Escalation of Conflict: Continued escalation of tensions could lead to a significant market sell-off.
Breakdown of 5163: A failure of 5163 opens up downside targets. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown, then consider shorting for a move down the levels.
News: Top Stories for April 15th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis:
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominate headlines and overshadow all other news.
Potential repercussions for the global economy, oil prices, and markets.
Impact on Market Outlook:
Uncertainty and volatility dominate the April outlook.
Key economic dates and reports may be less impactful given the news focus.
Earnings Reports:
Earnings season continues, but market focus may be diverted by the geopolitical situation.
Other Market and Economic News:
Monitor secondary news sources for updates on the Iran/Israel situation and potential market impacts.
Reminder: The weekend geopolitical developments introduce extreme uncertainty into the markets. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to quickly adapt your trading strategy.
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well.
Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future.
Illustration 1.02
The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation.
Illustration 1.03
The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.07 - 04.12Last Week :
Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet.
We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week.
To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25
To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas
Levels to Watch :
Current Range Levels -
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25
5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it.
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range
Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be
5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162.
Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major).
Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major).
Trading Strategy
Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows.
Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions.
Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed.
Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout.
Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024
Economic Data & Interest Rates
Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns.
High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation.
Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Earnings & Bank Stocks
Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector.
Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.
Market Outlook & Analysis
S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance.
April historically a bullish month.
Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus.
Global Markets
Japan's 5-year bond yield surges.
Singapore's GDP growth remains modest.
Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams.
Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162.
Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major).
Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major).
Trading Strategy
Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows.
Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions.
Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength.
Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout.
Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024
Interest Rates & Inflation
Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts.
Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further.
Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high.
Oil, China & Global Markets
Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel.
China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations.
Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain.
US Labor Market & Stock Performance
Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience.
S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains.
Banking Regulations & Debt Relief
UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans.
US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries.
ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings
ECB moves closer to a rate cut.
Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending.
Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve.
CPI Data and Impact:
CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations.
Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts.
This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major).
Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major).
Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more.
Trading Strategy
CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly.
Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs.
Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI.
Bull Case
Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely.
Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels.
Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market.
News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024
CPI Impact on Markets
Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions.
Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations.
Treasury Rates & Fed Policy
US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns.
Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts.
Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls.
Individual Stocks
Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears.
Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor.
Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Consolidating within a tight range. Expect a breakout or breakdown with the potential for increased volatility.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5246, 5232-35 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207 (major).
Major Supports: 5196-98 (major), 5181, 5172 (major), 5155 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5256, 5262 (major), 5274, 5285 (major), 5294, 5302 (major).
Major Resistances: 5308 (major), 5327-30 (major), 5348 (major), 5379 (major), and others.
Trading Strategy
Rangebound Consolidation: ES is forming a tight base between 5235-5263. Exercise patience and prioritize either tactical adds on support tests/failed breakdowns OR hold a runner position with the trend.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5246 and 5232-35 (prioritize the latter). Consider dips below 5232 to 5207 or 5196-98, especially if followed by reclaims. Stick to level-to-level profit-taking.
Short Opportunities: While avoiding counter-trend shorts is generally advised, those inclined may consider potential shorts at 5285 (red downtrend resistance) or 5302-08 for dips.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5232-35 zone holds. If it does, consolidation continues, likely forming a bullish triangle for another push toward 5274, 5285, and potentially 5302-08.
Adding on Strength: If ES bases above 5246 (with dips below recovered) while staying under 5263, consider potential adds.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5232 triggers the bear case. Remember, most breakdowns are traps, so look for a retest and failed breakdown of 5232 first, then consider shorts with level-to-level targets.
News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024
Economic Indicators
CPI and PPI data in focus for inflation insights.
Bond market signals potential for stable interest rates.
Corporate Earnings
Big banks to release quarterly reports.
Interest Rate Decisions
Bank of Canada and ECB announcements could impact FX and indices.
EU Joint Borrowing Plan
Success of the EU plan could inform future fiscal tools.
Corporate Events
Blackstone's potential buyout of L’Occitane.
Reminder: Expect a breakout from the current tight range, potentially with volatility. Focus on reacting to price action, prioritizing risk management.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish with potential for volatility as CPI data approaches.
Important Note: CPI data will be released later this week. Expect outsized moves and potential traps. Prioritize risk management and adaptability.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5246 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207, 5203 (major), and others.
Major Supports: 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5179 (major), 5172, 5162 (major), 5155, 5144-46 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5255 (major), 5263, 5270 (major), 5279, 5287, 5292 (major), and others.
Major Resistances: 5302, 5308 (major), 5311, 5316, 5321, 5329-32 (major), and more.
Trading Strategy
Defending Support: The 5230-34 zone is crucial for bulls. Holding this level signals potential for an upwards move toward 5287-92, with possible profit-taking dips along the way.
Long Opportunities: Focus on the 5230-34 zone (if today's high remains unbroken). In case of a breakdown, use extreme caution and target major supports like 5203 and 5191. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims as potential long entry signals.
Shorting with Caution: Shorting into strength within bull markets is inherently risky. If considering shorts, the best area is the 5287-92 zone (red downtrend channel), with another potential reaction at 5270.
Bull Case
Holding Strong: As long as 5230-34 support holds (ideally with a minor dip promptly bought below 5203), the path is open to 5287-92. Expect another dip there before potentially reaching new all-time highs.
Ultra Bullish Scenario: If bulls hold above 5246 and buy any small dips, this signals strength and could lead to potential adds.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: If 5230-34 fails, the bear case activates. Since most breakdowns trap, look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider short entries with level-to-level profit targets.
News: Top Stories for April 8th, 2024
Stock Market Outlook
S&P 500 hits record highs, strong Q1 performance increases bullish sentiment.
Reduced recession fears and potential Fed pivot drive positive outlook.
April historically favorable for the S&P 500.
Analysts forecast strong earnings growth with significant upside potential.
Corporate Earnings
Intel's Q1 2024 financial results release set for April 25th.
Perion Network updates guidance, increases share buyback.
Economic Indicators
Q4 GDP growth remains solid despite high interest rates.
Bond market signals potential Fed rate cuts as early as June.
Trade deficit widens, while manufacturing data shows strength.
Technology Sector
Modest growth expected in 2024, with IT investment plans.
AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity to drive tech spending.
Other Corporate and Market News
Nvidia's strong performance continues in AI chip market.
Tesla faces challenges in China, automotive growth slows.
Boeing impacted by quality control concerns.
Upcoming Events
Tech conferences including Google Cloud Next and ODSC East.
Women in Tech Global Conference highlights industry leaders.
Reminder: The CPI release this week will likely cause significant volatility. Adapt your trading accordingly, with an emphasis on reacting to price action and prioritizing risk management.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.
Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).
Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.
Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).
Trading Strategy
Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.
Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.
Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.
Bear Case
Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).
News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024
U.S. Jobs Report
Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.
Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.
Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.
Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.
Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.
Market Performance
S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.
Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.
Global Economic Indicators
Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.
Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.
India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.
Energy Sector
Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.
Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.
Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.
Geopolitical Concerns
Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.
U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.
Technology & Disinformation
Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.
Market Outlook
J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.
Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.
Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
