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Weekend Update: Are We About to TOP (or Topped) in the ES/SPX?In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull market and the October lows are the lows. After some messy chopping around, we’ve built a strong base to attack the January 2022 highs later this year. Now to give this camp credit, (let’s call this camp 1) they’re calling for a consolidation of the gains so far. The second camp (let’s call this camp 2) , is we’re eventually headed much lower than 3502, and the January 2022 highs will be handily put in the rear view mirror for years to come. Did I say years?...I'm sorry, I meant at least a decade. I’m in camp 2. But let’s get something out in the open first. Camp 1 and 2 both acknowledge a consolidation of gains from October is in order in the short term. But that’s where our similarities end. In last week’s post, I provided details analysis and context surrounding my LONG-TERM analytical thesis of price being in a Super Cycle wave (IV) area of consolidation. I will not be rehashing that analysis again this week. Instead, I want to provide less of a long-term picture, and what is in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. The past week was filled with opportunity on the long and short side of price action. Today was the first day since the December lows of 3788 we started to crack. We’ve been steadfast in tracking a pattern that ends at 4242. Why? Because price has given us no indication that it will NOT get there. Until today. Now some of you may be saying one day does not make a trend. I agree. But put several of those together and that’s what you have. The beginnings of a new trend back down. The main chart shows how we cracked today. This price action, so far, does not constitute invalidation...but we're close. I consider 4025 the last line of credible defense. Below that, and I have to give credit to the larger downside pattern. To confirm the downside pattern, we have to breach 3901.75 on the ES. That's a long way away. Nonetheless, if we consolidate below 4150 and stay below that price level. Not only do I see a breach of 3901.75...but a breach of 3788. This would just be the beginning. Now if we can hold and not breach 4025. There is a weak case to make that 4242 may get tagged. In conclusion, whether we've topped, or we get 4242 in next several weeks. Camp 1 is about to get a lesson in "don't buy the dip". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders. I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level. If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds. This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout. Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used. Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
1
SPX - The grind continues - plus AAPL, TESLA, AI, GEO, Nat GasDidn't get what I wanted to see today, that's trading for you. The possibility that we keep grinding higher for a week or more is certainly viable after today. Above we have the following - daily BB at 4190, Weekly BB at 4180, 100 weekly ma at 4215 and Monthly 18/20 at 4190 and 4210 respectfully. Some stocks like Tesla and AAPL seem to want to go higher after today and other stocks I'm watching also want to get a bounce. So there you have it, I was expecting something more but the market is simply not ready to drop. More grind will likely continue, even if we sell off tomorrow. I will keep watching and waiting for a definitive move down. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by the_sunship
4
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet? If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond... 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/8/2023 Harami-Inside 2/9/2023 CRUSH 2/10/2023 GAP Potential 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/17/2023 Break-Away 2/18/2023 Carryover 2/19/2023 CRUSH 2/20/2023 Flat-Down 2/21/2023 POP 2/22/2023 2/23/2023 BaseRally301 2/24/2023 Harami-Inside 2/25/2023 CRUSH 2/26/2023 Bottom-004 Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity. See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23. See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23. Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F Wednesday 2.15.23 Prep Wednesday 2.15.23 : Yesterday after CPI it looked like we could get our continuation lower after we took out 4123-19 Support but we failed to even tag 4103-4099 Key area for entrance back into T2 range where short covering came in and gave us a push back over 4143-37 telling us there is still good Daily Support in that area but the move higher failed to continue or reach 4168-62 because we trapped good amount of supply over 4150 in the morning to hold us down. Can we see that continuation today? Very possible because market has been showing us for last few days that we now have supply but not yet enough to take out T2 areas and make more people sell out. Today holding above Daily Support of 4123-4100 will be a sign of strength and we are inside T2 Range right by the high. Today 4123-19 will be our Key Support only with its break we can see continuation lower, if we fail to get back to 4123-19 and get over 4143-37 our T2 high area that will put next Resistance and Previous Day high as a good target, if we can make a push past that at some point and hold then could see us go for the stops over 4191-85 towards 4220-15. On the downside if 4123-19 breaks we are looking at Previous Day and T2 low as targets and possible break and continue. Unless those break and continue we are staying in this smaller balance with 4143-37 being our middle, 4168-62 Resistance and 4123-19 Support. IF Daily Support breaks watch out to the down side. **** We Do have Data this morning and for now holding under 4143-37 so watch out if data flushes under daily support and holds then we could see a big down day towards 4000 area and we will not be looking for any longs. Levels to Watch: Resistance Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 Current 4143-37 Support Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep Monday 2.13.23 Review: Sunday Globex pushed the market over our 4103 Resistance opened above it and we got a long move towards our supply area which is telling us there are still buyers at the cost basis at 4084-77 but even with both attempts over 4143-37 Resistance weren't as strong and didn't give much continuation or rejection, which so far tells us that this area over 4143-37 is heavier outside supply area and for now we are in balance here and still have shorts covering to keep us up. Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep: Currently over Daily Support, over T2 range and right around Previous Day High and waiting for CPI. Interesting spot we are in as we are sandwiched between Daily Support/Resistance in Distribution mode, can we hold up today and go higher? Will they use the data to run it higher and sell what they can before dropping the bid? or will we drop at CPI and either keep going or reverse and trend back up? Few different scenarios can play out but here is what we know. Our Daily Resistance area is 4215-4191 and Daily Support at 4123-4100 will be Key Locations to watch, any move into Daily Resistance we need to be careful with because unless we base under 4191-85 before taking it out or take it out and base above before taking out 4220-15 then it would be hard to sustain and keep up I think and we need to be careful for it to not reverse if we even go that way of course but we have to keep in mind its a larger supply area and if shorts see supply they will drop the bid and today if 4143-37 goes again that could give us lower targets down to 4084-77 which was already tested Thursday/Friday and might not have as much support this time around which is also our T2 low area. We are over T2 range and under supply so even with CPI we have to keep in mind that we could stay in a tight range still today without a big move out, something to watch out for if we just trade between the Daily Area. On the upside if 4143-37 holds today we have stops lined up over 4168-62 and 4191-85 those are good targets with possible move to 4220-15 if it stays strong. I will watch where the market will go first and make a decision from there. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4220-4215 // 4191-85 Current 4168-62 Support: Key Daily 4123-4100 // 4000 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward. I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today. If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours. Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion. I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday. Follow my research
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
4
Trends showing lower highs; forming a funnel down?So we are hitting a 2hr uptrend right here at 4114. This is going to be a lower high 2hr uptrend. We have already had a lower high 30m and 1hr uptrend signal also. Having cashed out on my last trade, I might look at anything around the 2hr uptrend if it closes up here and causes that signal, as a short position. However, I am also aware that tomorrow is CPI data. So I may just sit out until that data shows some direciton in the market. There is some discussion that CPI inflation data is going to come in higher with headline Month over Month data, and that even Core Month over Month will be flat. The market may not respond well to that information if that happens. All in all, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4100 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings; Lots of earnings this week as it is still earnings season, but nothing major in terms of today. Economic Data; Not much for today; CPI data is tomorrow morning (EST). My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
#ES_F Friday 2.10.23 Prep Thursday 2.09.23 Review: Globex made a move over 4143-37 Resistance into next resistance at 4168-62 where we failed to hold and once RTH opened we corrected inventory back under 4143-37 and held under giving us a signal for short trade towards lower support targets 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77. The way the day started was thinking that there is a chance to get under 4100 and with help of margin call selling push under 4084-77 but when we were still holding over 4100 before 2pm chances for that were slim but 4084-77 was still a good target to hit and test. We did fill the single prints from the Fed and now need to wait for next direction. Had some nice trades today, short from 43.75 area with exit around 84.50 would have been the trade. Friday 2.10.23 Prep: Previous session tagged 4084-77 Support and closed over it and now we are waiting to see what we will get next, continuation lower? another buy the dip? We are right at the edge of Key Support areas and can still expect to see buyers here, will it continue or hold somewhere around here and reverse later will depend on if its trapped supply coming out or outside selling. Right now we have to give it time and see what kind of structure it builds out to trade from. Going into tonight we watch 4103-4099 as Resistance and 4084-77 as Key Support and Previous Day Low. If we make a move under 4084-77 that opens the doors for a test of 4061-56 and if broken 4046-42 those two areas would need to be taken out for any continuation lower and to see our edge at 4030-25. For upside to play out we want to see buyers either at 4084-77 or strong buyers at 4061-56, our T2 low is at 4123-19 which is our Key Resistance for the day and we should have supply coming out from there which means we will only move there if we find strong buyers or run out of supply under 4103. If selling is not that strong watch for us to balance between 4103-4056 areas, Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 Intraday 4103-4099 Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 // 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4084-77 Key For Continuation 4161-56 Next Key 4030-25 **** We are still in our bigger balance area and until we show a full move out we can stay in these back and forth this whole month unless we start breaking out of these daily areas and holding under/over. Time to be patient and strike when the move sets up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
Is the FOMO rally over? Pressures pushing the market lowerSo I'm sitting short from 4150 and still holding to see things go lower. Quick tidbit, the overnight plunge was likely spurred in some part by Russia reducing oil production by 500,000 barrels a day as punishment for sanctions. This is why oil prices spiked overnight also, although they've fallen back to under 1% (they were over 2% for a bit there). In terms of trends, we got a lower low on the 30m/1hr/2hr, and then we've started hitting the resistance of a higher low on the 3hr/4hr/6hr. Thus far it appears that the higher low of the 6hr could cause a momentary rally. I'm looking to see if it sticks and stays higher and then if it does I will cash out and wait and watch to see if we get an uptrend that is a lower high that we can use to swing down past it. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4134 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I see us easily heading lower if we don't get up past the 4084 level of the Daily uptrend, at least to that 3900 level I have been calling for. Economic Data; We have some consumer confidence data today. I don't see it driving the market, but might at least pull us back to 0 if it is decent or confirm the lower movements if it is bad. Earnings; Not much today, like most Fridays. My sentiment for today is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Weekend Update: This Never Ends WellFor those of you reading this who trade the ES futures market I have a question. How’s that choppy price action treating you? It’s hard trading chop. However, to those of us who analyze price action, it’s a big clue. It represents indecision in markets. The age-old battle of fear and greed tugging and pushing against each other. Chop usually reconciles in big swings that take price outside the immediate confines of support and resistance. Price action goes from being indecisive to something else entirely. Is it a notion of giving up? On behalf of some, yes. However, it is the entry of new participants that converts the choppy price action to impulsive price action. Liquidity becomes scarce as these new participants overwhelm a market in a one directional trade. That is what I believe is on the horizon for the SP500 and global markets will follow. Please indulge me as I explain. Since the day price bottomed in October at 3502, we have had nothing but chop. To an Elliottition, chop is called overlap. Since the October bottom we have migrated higher in a very overlapping pattern. Now to mere morals, one can deduce that market participants just got tired of being bearish and this price action since October is a reversion of the mean of trader sentiment so to speak. To an Elliottition, this is a classic counter trend rally. However, the multi-trillion-dollar question is, counter to what? Is the trend lower and now all we’ve done is granted ourselves of short-term reprieve from even lower prices than the October low? Short answer. Yes, I believe so. You see, to me, we are now in a super-cycle wave (IV). To the Elliott Wave uninitiated, trends are counted as 5-wave patterns, whereas, counter trends are counted as 3-wave (overlapping) patterns. The patterns are fractal in nature. This means the 5 and 3 wave patterns contained in the micro timeframes on the 3 minute, 1 hour, etc. charts are self-similar to the larger 5 and 3 wave patterns contained in the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes, etc. The above chart is a monthly chart of the SPX cash market representing the small and large fractals of 5 and 3’s since the inception of the SPX. Contained in the monthly chart is the pattern reactions to much of what humanity has experienced in the last 100 years. All of these events have produced 5 and 3 wave patterns that started on the tick chart and escalated to build larger patterns through the various timeframes into the chart you see now. We just started to experience a very normal consolidation of gains in what many pundits on CNBC and other business outlets will term a bear market, within a secular bull market. With the utmost respect, I disagree. A secular bull market consists of three basic events that feed off each other: (1) valuation expansion of the companies that make up the indices, (2) being driven by earnings growth, and in a favorable environment of (3) falling interest rates. That is the literal definition of a secular bull market. Does that strike you as the type of economic environment where in? NOT ONE OF THOSE EVENTS ARE OCCURRING. I understand if most of you reading this would think to yourself…”so what”. Cycles being what they are, we’ll eventually revert at some point in time. I agree, with only one caveat. Where are we within the overall larger pattern in the history of the SPX index? My analysis shows we’re in the beginning stages of a super-cycle wave (IV) shown in green. The target box for this green wave (IV) is also outlined. So I believe we may eventually come around to the fact that we’re in a secular bear market, and from time to time, economic activity will migrate from short term cyclical bull to bear and back and forth, but make no mistake (and by definition) we’re no longer in a secular bull market. So where we? We’re are now consolidating gains of the entirety of the SPX rally since the 1929 stock market crash. A rally that began 94 years ago is what we’re now just beginning to digest. The next decade or two will be a normal progression of the pattern I have shared with you today. If it were possible to argue with Charles Dickens today, I would respectfully correct him and offer my version…”It was the best of times… and it appears it’s about to be the worst of times” . LOL But this will not occur in a straight line. If I am correct, that print we got of 4808.25 in the ES/SPX futures in January of 2022 will not be revisited for a very long time. However, that’s not to say there will not be major opportunities for traders on the long and short side. Now 90% of you reading this are not in agreement with my analysis, nor my economic thesis. Here’s one way to know if I might be correct. There’s an economist named Nouriel Roubini. He is affectionately known as “Dr. Doom” to those in the financial world. I have never read any of his works, but he is popular for his apocalyptic views on the global economy and markets. Suffice to say, Mr. Roubini has been dead wrong for the vast majority of his career. He gained some popularity during the 2008-2009 financial crisis…but most market pundits consider him a fairly un-credible, but entertaining guest. Here's how you get a clue I may be right in what I’m sharing with you today. If he starts appearing on CNBC, FOX business, Bloomberg on a regular basis….within the next couple years or so, let’s just say there may be something to this Elliott Wave thing. LOL This pattern…where we are in the super-cycle of the SPX market….”IT NEVER ENDS WELL”. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
9
#ES_F Thursday 2.09.23 Prep Previous Day: Globex built out structure over 4168-62 but did not have enough buyers to get us to our Key Resistance area for the day and once the structure broke under 68-62 we got our move lower in RTH down to 4143-37 which broke easily and opened the door for lower targets and a bigger sell off but instead it took us half a day to pull back and take another attempt without any success at breaking into 4123-19 Key Support area for the day and we ended our day in b profile under 4143-37 becoming our potential resistance. Today: Globex opened and pushed into 4143-37 taking it out later in the night and now we are back in the scene of the crime from Yesterday. We are currently inside Previous Day Range inside T2 Range and hanging out under Key Daily Resistance area, is today the day we make another attempt higher and try to push over 4191-85 up to 4220-14 and maybe look above? or are we running out of buyers and trapping longs up here and will drop the bid under 4143-37 again? If the market is really strong we wont see it come back under 4143-37 and eventually take out 4168-62 and make an attempt at 4191-85 which would be our Key Intraday Resistance for today and if that gets taken there is always a chance to see 4120-14 and maybe the level above if it really makes a push but don't get too crazy up there as its an area of Supply and bid can either be dropped from there or can see more slower sideways action. If we fail to get over 4168-62 and fail to find support at 4143-37 then we could possibly see a test of Previous Day low, T2 low and that 4084-77 area but those area all big areas to hit and will only happen if we see break under and hold continue/ Other wise we could spend the whole day in tighter range again and possibly do break out over 4191-85 later in the day after we consolidate. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4220-4191 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 Support: Key Daily 4103-4077 Key Intraday 4143-37 If breaks watch 4123-19 for any continuation
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Wednesday 2.08.23 Prep Overview for 2.07.23: Globex held between Key Intraday Resistance and 4123-19 Support, once structure broke it gave us pre market flush towards 4100 but failed to tag it and we again ran out of inventory. During Powell discussion volume came in took us over 4143-37 Resistance to our second Key Intraday Resistance from where we can see bigger seller stepped in and we got the move to our target at 4103-4099 where we selling stopped and gave us a move back over the resistance filled the short stops and closed the day weak trapping end of day chasers above 4175-80 after failure a tag and fail at next Key Resistance 4191-85 doesn't we cant still move above it but we have failed around it 3 times now and if we don't get much continuation then supply will build up and shorts will start dropping the bid. Prep for 2.08.23: Previous session we have stayed within our Daily Balance tagging both side of it in the same day and closing under our Daily Resisting after failing there again. Are we ready to attempt a break out from this daily balance or will we stay in range and maybe tighten up some more? Currently we are in 4214-4191 // 4123-4100 range, inside Previous Day Range and Over T2 Range now we will be watching to see if this 4168-62 act as Support or not and if we will be able to make a push towards 4191-85 which will be our Key Resistance going into tonight as that is an area we need to build under and then stay over to see upside, for now its showing more weakness and sideways action while trapping more longs on every push higher. If 4168-62 fails our Key Intraday Support will be 4143-37 which is also T2 High entry and should have buyers under there, If we do fail at 43-37 watch if we can get going under for our lower Targets towards 4123 4103 4084 ONLY if we can break 4143-37 for now we have accepted over it. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4191-85 Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4143-37 Current Temp Support 4168-62 Possible Resistance? **** Watch of Key areas to show the way
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn