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7/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week was another successful one for classical technical analysis traders. The week's movements were driven by a simple, textbook ascending triangle structure, which I have been discussing since Friday. I took a long position from 4420, which is now up over 100 points. This entry point was chosen due to its support of the large triangle structure. The resistance was at 4480-90, and ES went parabolic on Wednesday post-CPI on the breakout of that structure. This strong run from 4420 has been characterized by rare price action, with ES not closing a single 4hr candle below its prior candle's low since Sunday overnight. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headline China promises more stimulus and attempts to woo foreign investors. Key Structures 4478 and 4493: This represents the major June/July resistance and is the resistance of the ascending triangle structure. 4456: This back-tests where we broke out late Tuesday. 4440: This is support of the purple ascending triangle. The large rising uptrend channel in white: This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels The support levels for today are: 4540 (major), 4532, 4526-23 (major), 4510, 4497, 4493 (major), 4486, 4478 (major), 4461, 4456 (major), 4448, 4437-4442 (major), 4431, 4424, 4414 (major), 4402 (major), 4393, 4383 (major) Resistance Levels The resistance levels for today are: 4547 (major), 4559, 4571 (major), 4577-80 (major), 4595-4600 (major), 4613, 4620 (major), 4627, 4640-45 (major), 4655, 4680 (major) Trading Plan Today, I will likely not take any new entries unless we get a real sharp multi-level selloff to some buyable supports. The first support down from here is 4540. I'd prefer to see the 4526-23 level tested which has a marginally larger chance of holding for any bids. If we fail there, I'd definitely be interested in buying the triangle back-test which is currently the 4493 level. Wrap Up In summary, it's been an incredible leg up and I'll just be taking it light today and focused on protecting my profits. We are at risk now of a consolidation or corrective period. My loose lean is that ES could dip to 4523-26 lowest, perhaps consolidate more, then continue the leg up to 4559 then onto high 4570s ultimate target. If 4523 fails, we do the 4493 backtest. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/13: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In last week's newsletter, we highlighted the rally from 4420 to 4500+ as one of the biggest point moves of 2023. The market had built a classic ascending triangle pattern with 4420 support and 4490ish resistance. This week, the market dipped to 4420 support, ran to triangle resistance at 4490 before the CPI release, and then broke out yesterday, squeezing the market. The breakout led to a multi-week chart pattern, indicating higher targets for the future. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline Falling inflation spurs global rally. Key Structures The major structures to watch include the ascending triangle pattern with 4420 support and 4490ish resistance. We have already seen a breakout from this pattern. The next important structure is the large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and May lows. The support is currently at 4350 and resistance at 4575. Support Levels 4506, 4494, 4479, 4464, 4448-50, 4441, 4432, 4424, 4416, 4400-4405, 4393, 4380-82, 4369, 4345-50, 4337, 4326, 4317, 4305, and 4290 Resistance Levels 4520-25, 4534, 4543-45, 4565, 4570-75, 4585, 4592, 4601-03, 4615, 4635, and 4649 Trading Plan Today, the bull case is in play above the breakout. If we see any dips, 4479 would be the lowest point for bulls. As long as we are above the ascending triangle breakout, the bull case could see us base between 4493 and 4525 before moving up to 4534, 4545, and then 4570-75. The bear case begins when the breakout fails. The first warning would be the failure of 4493. If we see a bounce here and deep acceptance of the level, 4490 may be a spot to try for the scalp down. Wrap Up We have seen a significant breakout and now the market needs to defend this breakout. Although we have rallied straight from 4420 with only tight sideways consolidations, it wouldn't be surprising to see the market build a base between 4520 and 4494. If the market remains strong, we may not even lose 4506. However, if we fall below 4493, we may see a sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq - The Great Bear TrapIn recent analysis on the state of the markets, I note that the notion that we're "in a bull market" is actually really dangerous, and how, if you really want to see healthy markets into the future, you don't want to see a new all time high print yet, because we're just too far over the trend: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal Moreover, Q2 just finished strong, and with a new quarter, comes a new deployment of the algorithms. The infamous "JPM Collar" is something I discussed in a recent post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Namely that I believe it forecasts a serious correction in the markets. But at the same time, it has until September to even start, really. And it's dangerous to be long right now because the VIX is so low and we've been in a bullish impulse inside of bearish market conditions for so long, which I note below VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude You can see the first manifestation of this principle has begun in both the VIX, and the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF: You might look at that and think "lol it gave all its gains back" but this is actually what you want to see if it's going to run a bit. I also have open calls for Tesla, which are short term, albeit significantly, bearish. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? And an open call on Netflix where I actually believe it will retrace to the $170s during the next major correction. Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives So where we're at with Nasdaq futures is that it made lower highs while the SPX made higher highs: The divergence is noise for the short term, but if you ask me, it means that in the long term, if we see a dump, and then a bounce, that Nasdaq will actually take out the high while SPX will be a laggard. What Friday's price action showed is that both SPX and Nasdaq have begun to dump. If you ask me, this is because before we can go higher, we must go lower. Sells have to be matched with buys and buys have to be matched with sells, after all. And at this point, we haven't seen any downside in the markets since March. It's too extreme. Two important areas of note is we have the daily pivot around 14,800 and the gap around 14,500. Both of these are places that I expect to see attempts at bounces that will not come to fruition. Because you need to give people a chance to buy the dip and then for them to get stopped out. I believe that the reason things will dump, and they may dump violently, and fast, is to crank the VIX and have all the permabears finally see their "opportunity" emerge to get short for "the crash." Only for markets to bounce through the end of August while everyone with money is at the sea side and VIX dies a slow death back to a 9-handle while volatility gets sold off for free money again. By then, nobody will want to be short anymore. Everyone will have capitulated. Then the fireworks can start, and early bears will miss the move, much to their consternation. So, I believe that Nasdaq and tech stocks give the opportunity to short through the next few weeks. On Wednesday, we have CPI, which has not mattered in months, but may matter a lot now while the markets pretend to care about whether the Fed hikes rates again. Then we have FOMC on July 25 and a Nasdaq 100 "rebalance" on the 24th. A recovery through the end of July and all the way through the end of August is a very likely scenario. Until then, I believe we will see violent and significant downside, and it finally gives an opportunity trade puts and bear ETFs until you see really significant bullish movement in price at key levels, and then look for longs. But the next time it's time to go long, it's only a scalp. After Q3, the remainder of 2023 and the early part of 2024 is likely to be quite dangerous. There are more important things in life than making money. Make sure you take good care of yourselves and your family and friends. Make sure you make up for your regrets as soon as possible, lest you find yourself with no further chances to set right what was set wrong.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
7/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week, ES experienced a deep late-day flush from the 4467-73 target area, landing at the 4420 level. Despite a 30-point rally, ES has largely remained stationary since late June. This period of range trading, between 4420-4490, is likely to continue for some time, providing a level-to-level day trader environment. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headline The Nasdaq 100 index will be rebalanced to reduce the dominance of the largest mega-cap stocks within it. The new weighting will be announced on July 14, taking effect for pre-market trading on July 24. Sweden will likely be admitted to NATO today at their annual summit. Asian equities higher as China announces loan relief for it’s troubled real estate sector. Key Structures The price action since Friday has been volatile, with a squeeze from 4430 to 4470s late Friday afternoon, followed by a rapid sell-off down to 4011, and then a rally back to 4440s. The big picture structures and levels to watch for now are 4485-95, 4460, 4420, 4382, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Supports are at: 4432-35 (major), 4423, 4418 (major), 4407, 4393 (major), 4380-83 (major), 4365 (major), 4350, 4344, 4328-33 (major) 4315-20 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4442 (major), 4451, 4461 (Major), 4468, 4484 (major), 4493 (major), 4511 (major), 4520, 4530-33 (major), 4543, 4553 (Major), 4575-4580 (major), 4593, 4605 (major) Trading Plan The bull case would involve continued base building in the 4420-40 range, then a breakout targeting 4461. The bear case would begin with the fail of 4418, followed by a period of acceptance and then a short after perhaps 4415. Wrap Up In summary, ES is currently in a basing period. As long as 4418 holds, we can expect continued basing in the 4420-40 range and then a breakout to 4461. However, a fail of 4418 would signal a bearish turn. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. We saw a fantastic continuation off the 4420 level last Friday. As predicted, we based under 4450 all morning, then ran to the 4467-72 target, then dipped. We broke out 4420 last week, rallied, then backtested last week. However, it's not quite "all clear" for new highs yet. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headline Chinese inflation falls flat. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels being watched now include the 4485-93 resistance zone, the 4468 zone which triggered the selloff on Thursday, the 4420-25 breakout origin point, and the 4377-82 level. The large rising uptrend channel in white is the primary medium term channel with support currently at 4325. Support Levels Supports are: 4463, 4450 (Major), 4441 (major), 4433, 4420 (major), 4407, 4403-07 (major), 4392, 4378-82 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345 (major), 4337, 4325 (major), 4317, 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4467 (major), 4480-85 (major), 4493 (major), 4503-05, 4518, 4527-30 (major), 4540, 4550 (major), 4558, 4570-75 (major), 4585, 4600-05 (major), 4620 (major), 4630, 4641 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to watch the first supports down at 4449 and 4443. If we sell deeper, the 4420 level will be watched again. If we fail there we likely get a hard sell and I'll be considering short down to 4380. The bull case today is fully in play above 4420. The bear case would begin on the fail of 4420. Wrap Up In summary, we are in range trading now 4420-4490 and may stay here for many days or even weeks. This will be a level to level day traders environment, and next to impossible to predict. My loose lean is we can backtest 4450 or ideally 4443, then try another push to 4467 then ultimately beyond. If 4420 fails, I am short. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
ES Futures Primary AnalysisI'll keep this brief. The area on the chart where purple 5 resides best counts as a 3-wave structure. Therefore, in my primary analysis, I am counting this as an irregular b wave that made a slightly higher high and now we should be heading into the 4370 area for our black c wave of 4. I have a purple alternative 5 on the chart because there is a chance of wave 5 truncation...but that is only confirmed with a breach of 4260. If my primary analysis is correct, our black wave 5 should conclude in the area of 4519-4530. Therefore we await more price action. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
7/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday brought about the biggest dip in ES since April 23rd, which was then promptly bought up. A three-day flag pattern with 4464 support failed, triggering the first short in over a week. The selloff ended at the 4420-25 zone, which was the breakout origin point last Thursday. This represented a fantastic buy opportunity and the low of the day. Key Structures Several core big picture structures and levels were highlighted. The 4467-74 zone is the support of the multi-day bull flag. For bulls to regain full control, they must reclaim this zone. The 4420-25 zone is the breakout origin point and started the most recent 70 point squeeze higher. The 4377-82 level is the back-test of the perfect green channel structure connecting the February and December highs. If this fails, it would be the 2nd major support loss. The large rising uptrend channel in white connects the March lows and the May lows and is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels Supports are: 4441, 4430-31, 4420-24 (major), 4413 (major), 4402, 4394, 4378-82 (major) 4370, 4359, 4350-45 (major), 4338, 4328 (major), 4317-22 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4451 (major), 4462, 4467-73 (major), 4480 (major), 4487 (major), 4493, 4500-4503 (major), 4514, 4521 (major), 4532 (major), 4537, 4545 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to continue defending the 4420 level, which keeps a new leg up in play. If the 4420 level is tested again, it is likely still a strong buy. The bear case begins on the failure of 4420. In order to re-establish the move up and put bulls back in control, ES needs to reenter the structure that caused yesterday's selloff at 4467-73. The bull case is in play as long as the 4420 backtest keeps holding. Wrap Up Yesterday was an example of the power of simple technical analysis. The key task for bulls from here will be to continue defending 4420, which keeps a new leg up in play. The bull case is in play as long as the 4420 backtest keeps holding. If 4420 fails, we take another big leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
06072023 - #SPXSPX was rather weak, though NDX rallied, DJIA sold off, thus SPX was somewhere in between. It dipped down to the 4431 or so price, did rally back up to PZ but that strong PZ held any further rallies, before it came down again on FOMC meeting minutes. The daily candle for SPX is somewhat bearish; could see a retest of the lows. Price opened within the PZ but had came off it and is now nearing the BZ. TBH, if market is to go down further, I would prefer a move up first, to re-test and get rejected within yesterday's candle for further down but now, price is moving down first. 4433 would likely be a level of focus, as it is a support level and also where yesterday's low is. If Europe opens near that 4433 level with bullish divergence, would like to look for a possible long to 4445-47 and even 4459. But if 4459 trades today, will look for shorts down to 4445.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
Weekly Update: Tracking a Top in the SP500 FuturesIn mid-June the SPX Futures hit a high of 4493.75. Let’s examine the data points, the characteristics of the subsequent price action, and attempt to see if the SPX Futures Market topped at 4493.75. Since futures bottomed in October of 2022 at 3502, price advanced for 8 months so far has appreciated by 28.3%. With market analysts, money and asset managers, and financial news reporters all weighing in on whether we’re in a new bull market or not, let’s see if there is more of a quantitative method to gain insight into the answer to that question. I will state unequivocally, that until price breaches 3502, there is nothing confirming that the market did NOT bottom in October. Comparatively, until price breaches 4808.25, the all-time highs of 2022, we’re not confirmed the longer term trend is bullish. Objectively, the truth is price is digesting previous gains off the Covid-19 lows of 2020. That is all we can say definitely. However, much like an investigator trying to solve a crime, there are clues that can point us in the direction of a reasonable conclusion. To the degree those probabilities favor one direction or the other, from there we can begin to devise a trading strategy. Counter-Trend Price Action Having topped at 4808.25 in January of 2022 price declined approximately 27% in 10 Months and bounced in from 3502. Since then, our recent high of 4493.75 came into the area of between the .618% and the .786% retracement level. Actually, closer to the .786% having exceeded the .618%. This length of price retracement more than fulfills a standard retracement for counter price action. However, this data point alone, does not confirm the counter trend rally has concluded and the previous trend down will resume. Additionally, the entire pattern off the October lows resembles the kind of corrective price action we would expect as it is very overlapping in nature. Only towards the end of the pattern did price become impulsive, and that is easily attributed to a c-wave. The counter trend price action by itself is not conclusive evidence that a top has been struck. However, it supports that case more so, than invalidates it. MACD divergences The interesting thing about the move off the October lows is MACD is the entire advance occurred on negative divergence. I’ve written about this before and this also supports the price action as corrective. This was not a strong rally in terms of what normally is associated with Bull Market advances. In summary and based on the price action as of today, I would have to say that odds favor the SPX Futures topped mid-June. Although we have no definitive proof, like an impulsive pattern to track to the downside, that may soon enough reveal itself. Based on the odds favoring a top to the price action off the October bottom resembling a corrective retracement of a downside trend, I would expect for price to ultimately breach the October lows of 3502 and head closer towards the 3,000 level sometime in the first half of 2024.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
19
From Inflation Figures to a Potential Bull TrapHello everybody! Today we will get the release of the inflation numbers, so I would like to give you a solid update! First of all, we are observing a gradual shift from bearish to bullish attitudes, particularly as the SPX is reaching the 4350-4400 mark, a target I previously highlighted multiple times on both Tradingview and Twitter. However, we must remain aware that the market could further extend up to 4450-4500 before peaking. For SPX the 4350-4400 zone was a key breakdown zone that was never retested, an FVG was formed which has now been filled. The NDX actually had some major gaps in this area, that have also been filled. The SPX is on the brink of becoming severely overbought at this juncture, while the NDX is clearly extremely overbought on the weekly timeframe. Whenever the Nasdaq 100 has gotten this overbought over the last few years, we have seen significant corrections follow. Also testing or going above the weekly and monthly R3 Fibonacci pivots is a sign that the market is at resistance and getting oversold on shorter timeframes too. The Russell 3000 is close to hitting a key resistance level, which is just a mere 2% away. While these indices could be close to a top, others, like CN50, DAX, Nikkei, and Russell 2000, indicate more upside. So, what's my projection for the near future? I foresee a final upward movement in stocks in the next two days. The reason for this prediction is the possibility of inflation coming in below expectations and a potential pause from the Fed without an interest hike. These circumstances could lead to a 2-3% market rally before a final short squeeze or bull trap. Even though the present market movement appears sustainable, with the rally seeming robust despite the market potentially being overbought and hitting key levels, I believe it may be time to consider taking profits, especially if we witness a significant move higher in the next 1-2 days. Inflation numbers are scheduled to be released today (or tomorrow), with expectations hovering around 4.1%. However, I expect the figure to be between 3.9-4%, as inflation is on a declining trend. This decline in inflation, coupled with a slowing housing market and rising recession probabilities, could have profound implications for the market. We've observed oil, wheat, and palladium prices dropping while copper remains flat or slightly down on the commodities front. I speculate that this might be the onset of deflation, possibly heralding the final disinflationary pressures.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis June 20 - June 23, 2023 During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-. Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week. To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal. Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75. The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal. For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50. However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.
CME_MINI:NQU2023
by LumiTraders
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning SignalFrankly speaking, the pattern that would make the most sense for the markets with the situation in the world at present is that the ATH on Nasdaq, Dow, and SPX are taken before the end of '23. However, there are a number of problems that indicate despite the extreme greed, bear capitulation, and bull euphoria this may not happen. One of the biggest fundamental factors is comments made by Jerome Powell at the last FOMC press conference, where for the first time in 15 months, a pause on rate hikes was induced. The small one is Powell made sure everybody understood that the pause was for June and June alone and not to be misconstrued as a policy change. The big one is that Powell plainly stated in answers to reporters that rates will not be cut until inflation comes down significantly, and that he expects this to take years. What this really means is that in order to have inflation really come back down, you need '08 GFC/'20 COVID demand destruction to unfold, but arguably on a bigger and more dramatic scale. What can cause a bigger and more dramatic worldwide calamity? There are only a few things, and none of them are pretty. Will they happen before election year? During election year? On top of this, with the Treasury General Account refill being the catalyst that finally impacts the reverse repo facility, liquidity is coming out of the markets, not going in. So the fundamentals of the markets and economy are actually worse now at 15,500 in many ways than they were at 10,000. But fundamentals never matter in the linear way people expect, and that's why you get 50% rallies on tech when tech as a sector is primarily worthless. So here's the technical breakdown of the NQ. On weekly and monthly bars, Nasdaq has gone up in a straight line since '23 opened. The low of the year was set in the first week of January. This is generally bullish and means we can expect new highs. However, all of these fundamental turns in the feng shui of the economic mood have occurred right as the Nasdaq was pushed back to the distribution block that formed the '21 top. This area also happens to be the 79% Fibonacci retracement level, and the entire bull run has been composed of a parabolic trend angle of better than 70 percent. Price now trades far away from every trendline there is. In fact, the delta between the '22 LOY and the trendline composed of the '18 volmageddon and '20 COVID lows is a staggering 13 percent. From where we are now it's 6,000 points. It's too parabolic, and it's happening inside of a fundamental tightening cycle, when China's economy and society is in huge trouble, and also a time when oil and natural gas look as if they're about to go town. This area between where we are now and the '22 top is an area of huge resistance. The intention, or "the plan," if you will, may very well be to send it back to the trendline with new highs being incurred only on the back of a Donald Trump 2024 Presidency. Trump winning '24 won't be quite the "W" for rightists and conservatives and the religious that they think it will be. In fact, Trump is an ass and may usher in an era of globalism, so make sure you vote for Ron DeSantis or RFK. If you ask me, the biggest fundamental tell in this is the USD. The tells are subtle, but February was a gap rebalance, and April was a higher low that also formed a double bottom. All on its own, I generally feel that's bearish. But May formed a higher low, and all while equities were mooning. And on top of that, the DXY stopped during the height of the '22 collapse, at under the 115 psychological level. Nasdaq never swept the 9,xxx level. Moreover, VIX and VIX futures are printing 13 and 14 handles, figures usually reserved for the most bullish of economic conditions. Not economic conditions where the indexes are still trading at lower highs and almost all of the core equities are still trading at just a blip. Bears have been calling for a crash for months. But how many are not only about to miss the opportunity after getting hurt, but start actually buying the dip? If Nasdaq can't make a new high and run away by July, then 9,500 is coming and it's going to come fast. You better believe it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
5
Weekly Update: Are we in a new bull market?If you’ll remember in October of 2022 when the SPX had declined 27% since the January all-time highs. It seemed the sentiment and market news were uber bearish with back drop of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by an unprecedented .75 points at its FOMC meetings at the time . Around the December lows, we began discussing in my trading room what the sentiment of traders and the financial news media would have to be once we finally arrived in the gray target box for this corrective rally I thought would persist till summer time. I was clear, that for this forecasted subsequent c-wave down (Red Arrow on Right side of Chart), that sentiment would have to be uber bullish in our B-wave target box. What would transpire afterwards would be a decline of 30% to 40%, so a decline of this magnitude would have to catch traders off guard. Some sort of event driven catalyst. Now, many months later, to listen to CNBC, it appears we’re now in a new bull market. As an Elliottition, this type of sentiment was expected. Even required, as to what comes next. If my analysis is correct, we are soon about to embark on a c-wave decline that would eventually breach the October lows. Additionally, if I am correct, once this c-wave does conclude (around 3,000 -2700 ES), it will take at least couple years or more for price to return to the area of where we are today. So, while everyone is uber bullish, the main data point to consider is price pattern and the MACD indicator. For this entire pattern to be impulsive and give us a chance to get to new highs this would mean we’re now in a wave 3 of an impulsive trend. Wave 3’s are the strongest portion of a 5-wave impulsive trend pattern and they never take place on negative divergence . Wave 3’s persist until negative divergence is broken. If we’re to break the stark negative divergences that have held since the October bottoms (see indictor portion of the chart above) price has little room for any sustained consolidations or declines. No forecast is guaranteed. When forecasting price patterns and trader behavior, support and resistance still apply. SO, to be fair, NO KEY LEVELS OF SUPPORT HAVE BEEN BREACHED that would give us any indication we've topped, or at minimum, the rally is cracking. However, as of now, the MACD indicator is telling us that with each advance of price, we're achieving that on less and less strength. Maybe that changes soon, anything is possible...but in the absence of that, new all-time highs are simply wishful thinking.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPY - It's Life or Death For BearsIn this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points: 1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019. 2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market." == A Caveat: The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet. What's really going on is extremely dangerous. There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP. By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments. The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night. If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once. It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York. == I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range. The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity. The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind. Monthly Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher. So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion: Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024? Two things to consider: 1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23. (This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse) 2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election So where we're at right now is make or break: Weekly For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later. Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace. If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024. However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead. It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum. What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy. If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup. The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area. But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later. Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality. But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets. It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
AMEX:SPY
by LordWrymouth
3
Weekly Update: Has the Stock Market Topped?Anyone who answers yes or no definitively to that question is really just guessing. As a practitioner of Elliott Wave I can answer that question in two-parts. 1) There is not enough price action to make such a determination In my trading room we discuss the key levels that need to be breached to even start to consider the upside pattern is cracking. To date, we're far away from those levels. Nothing provides confirmation, like confirmation. Now granted Elliottitions will have many clues along the way with the price action pattern being the most important, but until we breach 3502 in the SPX Futures, this pattern off the October lows could sub-divide into an even more complex structure, denying both bulls and bears a break out or break down. In the micro pattern, there's also nothing conclusive pointing to the downside. 2) Retracement Levels Yesterday's trading day saw price in the futures get to 4305.75. In my analysis I have the .618% retracement level of the pattern from the January 2022 all time highs to the October 2022 lows at 4309.50. Since we did not tag that level, and currently have no compelling downside set up in place, I have to assume we will eventually tag it. Is it required? No. However, to discount 4309.50 is to not know the significance of the .618%. I will not get into the importance that retracement and extension level represents except to say, we came within a hair of it yesterday. When price patterns are retracing in counter trends or advancing in trends, the .618% and it's derivatives, the 1.618% and the 2.618% (mainly in commodities) are of major significance to an Elliotition and the wave count. Therefore I'll conclude by stating as to where price is today, and the proximity to the .618%, I would answer the question of "Has the stock market topped" by simply saying either it did yesterday, or it's top is imminent. Anyone who says different, is truly guessing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4