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11/29 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Today's market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with global markets showing modest gains. The anticipation of the COP28 Climate Change Conference in Dubai is influencing global sentiment, and the US Index Futures are trending upwards. Notably, crude oil is experiencing a strong surge. 🔄 Recap The S&P 500 Index Futures experienced a volatile day, initially surging to a high of 4597, then retracted to the 4555 level. This fluctuation indicates an ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish forces in the market. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The COP28 Climate Change Conference is commencing in Dubai, potentially influencing energy and environmental sector stocks. 🔍 Key Structures 4618: A critical upper trendline connecting key historical highs. 4573-75: A pivotal resistance zone that has capped recent rallies. 4555: Strong support level, consistently tested over the past week. 4534-36: Key support zone, previously a significant resistance. 4508, 4489-93, 4446, 4418: Other notable support levels to watch. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major) 4547, 4542 4534-36 (major) 4525, 4514 4508 (major) 4489-93 (major) 4484, 4473 (major) 4462, 4452, 4445 (major) 4437, 4430, 4424, 4418 (major) 4410, 4399, 4375-80 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4563, 4573-75 (major) 4580, 4588-90, 4597 4609 (major), 4618 (major) 4622, 4628-31 (major) 4642, 4648 (major), 4658 (major) 4668-70, 4681, 4692, 4700-05 (major) 4716, 4720, 4731 (major), 4741, 4754 (major) 📝 Trading Plan For Bulls: Focus on the 4556 and 4534-36 support levels. A rebound from these levels could indicate bullish momentum, offering opportunities to enter long positions. For Bears: Watch for a breakdown below 4556. A sustained move below this level could signal bearish momentum, with potential short opportunities at major resistance levels. 💡 Wrap Up With mixed signals and a failed breakout, today's market presents a challenging environment. Traders should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key support and resistance levels for guidance. As always, maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy is crucial. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
2
11/28 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Current indicators suggest a cautious approach, with a lean towards a short-term bearish outlook amid mixed global signals. 🔄 Recap In today’s issue, we delve into the performance of S&P 500 Futures, analyzing the recent consolidation phase after a notable rally. We examine the tight trading range that has defined the market over the past week, emphasizing caution in these choppy conditions. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Hawkish Fed Governor Waller turns dovish saying rates are in the right place. European CPI inflation reports coming in lower than expected. 🔍 Key Structures We've identified crucial structures ranging from 4620-25 as a broad upside target, down to 4418, a pivotal bull market trendline. The ES is currently consolidating under 4580, indicating a potential move on the horizon. 📉 Support Levels 4536: A prominent horizontal zone, critical for maintaining the current bullish structure. 4508: A support level that played a significant role in sustaining the rally after the November CPI release. 4485: A pivotal support-turned-resistance that could be retested. 4445-37: Key support zones that could act as a staging ground for future rallies. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-25: A major trendline target, marking the intersection of historical highs. 4580: A strong resistance level that has been tested and held thus far. 4565: An immediate resistance that could dictate short-term price action. 📝 Trading Plan For Wednesday’s session, we focus on key support and resistance levels. The plan includes monitoring for base building above 4555 for a possible move to 4580+ while also considering short positions on breakdowns below key support levels. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in a tight balance, with a persistent bullish undertone. It’s crucial to navigate this choppy phase with a disciplined trading plan, recognizing the potential for both upward continuation and downward reversal. Stay tuned for updates on major catalysts that may impact the market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/27 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Recap Today's newsletter provides a comprehensive look at the current market situation, emphasizing the S&P 500 Futures and the essential strategies for upcoming trading sessions. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed Europe: Down a bit US Index Futures: Down slightly Crude Oil: Up a bit Dollar: Down slightly Yields: Up slightly Crypto: Up slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Saudi Arabia is actively seeking allies for a production cut before the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. 🔍 Key Structures A significant breakout from a 4-month downtrend channel occurred on November 14th, influenced by CPI data. This bullish setup has sustained its momentum, with minor sell-offs being quickly absorbed. The S&P 500 Futures are currently consolidating under 4580, hinting at a potential upcoming move. 📉 Support Levels 4536-42: Crucial zone, acting as a major support. 4507: Notable support from mid-November. 4491-95: Key level from September's downturn. 4445, 4436-32: Secondary support zones. 4385: Represents the lower bound of a potential pullback. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-22: Ultimate target, connecting historical highs. 4580: Recent resistance, tested last Wednesday. 4565: Immediate resistance zone. 📝 Trading Plan Remain alert for support levels, especially around 4555 and 4535, to hold for continuing the bullish trend. Key resistances at 4580 and above may offer opportunities for adding strength. Watch for breakdowns below 4535 as a sign of a potential trend reversal. 💡 Wrap Up The current market condition is a blend of strong bullish trends and consolidation phases. It's vital to stay aware of major support and resistance levels and adapt strategies accordingly. The market remains in a delicate balance, with potential for both continuation and reversal of the current trend. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/25 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In the past month, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) has demonstrated an unusual bullish trend, closing four consecutive green weeks. Notably, after breaking out of a downtrend channel on November 14th at 4425, the market has largely maintained an upward trajectory. This breakout signifies a classic technical analysis pattern typically seen in 4-month downtrend reversals. 🔍 Key Structures 4620: Represents a significant trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 most recent high. 4577-80: A major resistance level encountered back in late August/early September. 4536-42: A critical horizontal zone that served as key resistance during the summer of 2023. Other Notable Levels: 4507, 4488-90, 4445, 4436-32, 4408-11, and 4390. 📉 Support Levels The primary support levels to monitor include 4507, 4488-90, 4445, 4436-32, and the critical 4408-11 zone. These levels have historically played a significant role in the market's movement and will be crucial in determining future trends. 📈 Resistance Levels Key resistance levels to watch are 4577-80, the upper zone of 4536-42, and the overarching 4620 level. These levels have previously acted as barriers to upward movement and will be critical in assessing the potential for continued bullish momentum. 📝 Trading Plan Supports to Monitor: 4554, 4549, 4542, 4535, and other major supports down to 4408-11. Resistances for Potential Reversal: 4565, 4572, 4580, and upwards to 4620. Bull Case Scenario: Maintaining above 4542-36 on dips to continue the bullish trend. Bear Case Scenario: A breakdown below 4536-42 could signal a short-term bearish shift. 🔚 Wrap Up As the market transitions from the Thanksgiving holiday, traders should be prepared for potential volatility and abrupt changes in direction. The emphasis should remain on trading within pre-planned, high-conviction zones and reacting to market shifts rather than predicting them. The approach for Monday hinges on the market's ability to sustain support levels, particularly around 4542-36, to continue the upward trend or signal a bearish reversal if these levels fail. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/22 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap The S&P 500 futures (ES) are continuing the seasonally bullish trend of Thanksgiving week. Recently, ES exhibited a bullish triangle pattern around the 4536 resistance, leading to a breakout that aligns with our analysis from the last newsletter. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Trending Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down significantly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Four-day ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Drama ahead of the OPEC meeting after a sudden reversal of its cancellation. Decrease in Thanksgiving dinner costs by 4.5% from last year. 🔍 Key Structures 4622: Core trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. 4577-80: A major resistance level observed in late August. 4543-35: A critical resistance level, now the most important zone to hold. 4521-18: A vital support level that has been crucial in the recent rally. 4488: An important zone for back-testing as the first major support down. 4445-47: A key back-test support level post-CPI day breakout. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4556-58, 4542, 4536-38, 4521, 4488, 4446-48, 4400-4405. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4577-80, 4607-09, 4623, 4658. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Watch 4536-38 for potential bearish indications. Long-Term Strategy: Bulls remain in control; maintain focus on key supports for signs of sustained upward movement. 🔚 Wrap Up As we get closer to Thanksgiving, market strength is typical, yet vigilance is essential. Despite predominantly green indicators this month, cautious trading is advised due to potential shifts during the holiday week and overhead supply considerations. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq - A Black Friday Blowout Sale?Using the SPX as a reference for ease of use, at the beginning of the November rally I asked whether or not manipulation would come after we saw a 5% rally in 3 days just because the U.S. Treasury decided to spam bonds at a lower, but still already highly inflated, rate in Q4 than they did in Q3. SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming? The week before last, I cautioned bulls who believe in the "Santa Rally" thesis that we may just see sideways and manipulation back down with the end of year target being merely 4,600 and not 4,900. SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The Clock And for the record, I haven't cared about this rally because I haven't had a position, since there was never a retrace I never went long and shorting has looked bad, and turned out to continue to be bad. But Friday the 17th marked the monthly Options Expiry (OpEx), and we predictably spent the day sideways. The next week ahead is U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday, where the markets will be closed for the last time before Christmas, and then Black Friday the day after. Although there is little news drivers this week, except for Employment on Wednesday and PMI on Friday, I posit that since the Nasdaq set a double top with its July high, we may very well see a 1,000 point "Black Friday blow out sale" this week that sets up a December rally that takes out the All Time High. Keep in mind after this week, starting with "Cyber Monday," we still have four trading days to complete the November candle, and so we most certainly can dump an awful lot and rally an awful lot to finish the month some 2 or 3% away from where we closed on Friday. The dangers in the markets are exceptional at the moment, however. Xi Jinping visited San Francisco for the climate theatre conference, where he met with the Biden Administration. What this event indicates to us is that the International Rules Based Order is extending Xi, who is a Chinese nationalist, an olive branch to cede his control of China and form a critical hub in the coming One World Government. But the IRBO has never been so intelligent as to understand that it cannot out maneuverer the Red Dragon of the Chinese Communist Party, for the Devil Red is a scourge who has come to ensure that humanity and all of its related souls are totally annihilated. At the root of the conflict is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa, originally started by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. The campaign has targeted 100 million spiritual believers, even going so far as to commit the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting. Although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for more than a decade in his Anti-corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP, the Red Dragon and Destroyer of Worlds, and this is a problem for him that he will either solve by overthrowing the CCP in a coup Gorbachev-style, or Heaven will solve it for him by sacking the Emperor's Bedroom in Zhongnanhai and Beidaihe. For the IRBO, the problem the whole world faces is that the supposed "International Police" (and its Wall Street financial vanguard) have been staining their hands sanguine crimson with the Jianglings in Shanghai-Babylon all these years. The sins are so extremely massive that they can never be fully paid for, and they still aren't doing their part to wash their hands and social distance from the Devil Red. Instead, they're doing everything they can to expand the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide. And this is going to cause a Dark Winter for humanity. When that day comes, your indexes and your memestocks, your "Magnificent 7," even, will all trade like crypto dumpstercoins because no market making algorithm will be available to pump and dump, and at the same time everyone will be desperate to sell, with no buyers available. But the good news is that when that day comes, you won't be paying attention to money anymore. Instead, what is unfolding in this world will be the only thing notable, and you won't have any interest, or any need of, following CNN and NYT and Xeeeeeeeeeeter for updates. The information will come from a combination of your own eyes and another platform, one pure and clean. Lord Jesus once told his followers: "Whoever has eyes, let them see. Whoever has ears, let them hear." The blind and the deaf will be culled, and such is the nature of the trial all souls face.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
9
11/21 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Todays price action highlighted the power of technical analysis, with ES breaking out of a 4-month downtrend post-CPI, rallying 120 points. The market formed a bullish triangle pattern last week, which led to a breakout and an upward trajectory today, aligning perfectly with our analysis from the last newsletter. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts FOMC meeting minutes and NVDA earnings later today. 🔍 Key Structures 4622: Core trendline connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. 4577-80: A major resistance level observed in late August. 4543-35: A critical resistance level, now the most important zone to hold. 4521-18: A vital support level that has been crucial in the recent rally. 4488: An important zone for back-testing as the first major support down. 4445-47: A key back-test support level post-CPI day breakout. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4556-58, 4542, 4536-38, 4521, 4488, 4446-48, 4400-4405. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4577-80, 4607-09, 4623, 4658. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Watch 4536-38 for potential bearish indications. Long-Term Strategy: Bulls remain in control; maintain focus on key supports for signs of sustained upward movement. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach Thanksgiving, typically strong for the market, we need to stay vigilant for potential shifts. The market's resilience with only one red day this month suggests strong bullish control, but caution is advised due to the holiday trading week and potential overhead supply. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Weekly Setup and 10 AM TRADEThis is a holiday abridged week. I expect market volume to taper off after Tuesday or so, with it coming alive following Monday. Thursday and Friday, the NYSE remains closed. Happy Thanksgiving! My Weekly Scenarios Scenario 1: I think if we are able to remain above 4510-4515 this week, there may be a tendency to test 4552 area. I do think there is a possibility of a range extension into 4586-4600 due to seasonality, mega caps etc. ES Weekly Trade Plan Inflection: 4508-4512 Upper Levels: 4545 / 4565 / 4606-4614 / 4634 Lower Levels: 4484 / 4467-4474 / 4423-4430 / 4400 ES Monday Trade Plan Inflection: 4508-4512 Upper Levels: 4537 / 4545 / 4560-4566 / 4580 Lower Levels: 4500 / 4493 / 4474 / 4467 STAY FROSTY!
CME_MINI:ESZ2023Long
by Beyond_Charts
11/20 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap Last week's newsletter accurately predicted the market's behavior with the CPI acting as a catalyst for a significant breakout from the core downtrend channel. This led to a substantial uptrend, marking one of the year's pivotal trades. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A significant event in the global market is the victory of the Libertarian candidate in the resource-rich presidential election of Argentina. This could have far-reaching impacts on global trade and market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures Upper Resistance: 4623, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. Notable Resistance Zones: 4580, 4556, 4535-43. Significant Supports: 4485-88, 4445, 4405. 📉 Support Levels Major: 3502, 3788, 3839 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4051, 4180, 4209. 📝 Trading Plan Short-Term Focus: Monitor 4514-07 as critical support. A break below could signal a short-term bearish trend. Long-Term Strategy: Maintain focus on the uptrend as long as the market stays above 4405, the core downtrend channel from August. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is showing signs of consolidation after a significant uptrend. Key levels to watch are 4514-07 for potential downward movements and 4535 for resistance. The market remains in a strong uptrend, and any pullbacks should be considered within this context. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/17 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed performance. Europe: Strong upward movement. US Index Futures: Mixed strength but generally up. Crude Oil: Price increase. Dollar: Slight decrease. Yields: Marginal decline. Crypto: Mixed trends. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Yesterday, President Biden signed a temporary government spending bill, preventing a government shutdown. This move has implications for market dynamics. 🔍 Key Structures The ES has entered a post-trend consolidation phase, with key structures ranging from 4507-10 to 4543+. The market is currently in "Mode 2," characterized by basing, chop, and pattern formation. The current pattern forms a bull flag with a 60% upside resolution bias. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4507, 4484-86, 4445, 4418-24. Minor: Various levels between 4507 and 4418. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4625, 4556-58, 4543. Minor: Levels ranging up to 4543. 📝 Trading Plan Supports: Focus on 4520, 4514, 4507-10, 4485-87, 4444. Resistances: Watch for 4524, 4535, 4543, 4557. Bull Case: Maintain control above 4507 for an upward trend. Bear Case: A breakdown below 4507 could lead to a short-term dip. Strategy: Emphasis on level-to-level trading within the 4507-4535 range. 🔚 Wrap Up As we approach today's trading session, the focus remains on the 4507-10 support level and the 4535-40 resistance zone. With the market in a consolidation phase, traders should be prepared for choppiness and focus on level-to-level trading strategies. Remember, today is OPEX Friday, so expect pinning around key levels and limited follow-through on movements. Stay informed, trade smart, and let's navigate the markets together. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/16 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Biden-Xi meeting concluded with a mix of agreements and tensions, impacting global market sentiments. Notably, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) showcased remarkable resilience this November, defying the typical seasonal trends. 🔍 Key Structures 4625: Upper green line, connecting January 2022 and August 2022 highs. 4556-59: Channel resistance and notable September area. 4543: A recurrent resistance level in June and July 2023. 4518: Trend line resistance from early to mid-September. 4442-45: Post-CPI rally's critical support level. 4418-25: Breakout point of the downtrend channel from August 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4507-10, 4496, 4484-86, 4476, 4462, 4452, 4442-45, 4430, 4426, 4418, 4413, 4403, 4390, 4385, 4375, 4366, 4353, 4348, 4341, 4333-35. 📈 Resistance Levels 4518, 4525, 4535, 4543, 4549, 4558-60, 4566, 4577, 4580, 4587-90, 4596, 4610, 4625, 4632, 4638-42, 4648, 4658, 4667, 4674, 4687, 4699, 4705, 4722, 4734, 4744. 📝 Trading Plan Thursday's focus is on pivotal support at 4507-10. A break below could initiate a rare red day, while holding this level might extend the bullish trend. Resistance levels to watch include 4543 and 4558-60. Trade management will be strictly algorithmic, focusing on level-to-level execution without emotional bias. 🔚 Wrap Up The market is currently in a post-trend consolidation phase, requiring traders to be adaptable. Key points for Thursday include maintaining support at 4507-10 and watching for potential resistance challenges. The long-term bullish outlook remains as long as the breakout level at 4418-24 holds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
11/15 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead🔄 Recap In our previous newsletter titled “SPX Is About To Break Out A 4 Month Downtrend”, we anticipated a significant move in the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES). On Monday, ES demonstrated a breakout from its 4-month trendline channel, driven by CPI, resulting in an impressive 100-point surge. This movement aligns with historical trends observed in November 2022. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts President Biden and President Xi are set to meet today at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. Their four-hour discussion will cover bilateral and global issues. The US House has passed a stop-gap spending bill to fund the government until January 19, preventing a government shutdown. The bill is expected to pass in the Senate. 🔍 Key Structures The ES experienced a breakout from its major downtrend channel that originated in August. This breakout is now the primary focus for potential future movements. We observed a bullish “megaphone” pattern formation on Monday, which set the stage for the current surge. 📉 Support Levels 4484: A crucial support zone, previously acting as resistance. 4439-40: A pivotal level, marking the liftoff point for today's CPI-driven movement. 4418-25: The breakout point from the downtrend channel and a significant area for dip buying. 📈 Resistance Levels 4543: A major resistance level, previously encountered in mid-2023. 4517: Trendline resistance connecting recent lows. 4596: Though not identified in our latest analysis, this level remains a key watchpoint for potential resistance. 📝 Trading Plan Continue monitoring key support and resistance levels. Emphasize the importance of holding runners in trading strategies. Focus on level-to-level trading, staying alert for breakout points and channel resistances. 🔚 Wrap Up Today's market movement, especially with CPI as the catalyst, highlights the importance of understanding technical structures like channels and the strategy of holding runners. As we continue to monitor these developments, our approach remains agile, focusing on data-driven insights for informed trading decisions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The ClockIn previous threads looking at SPY: SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming? Nasdaq Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye? And ES SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo We've noted that both the extreme bear and extreme bull cases are dubious. After the five day 8% rally to start the month, we warned that manipulation may be coming. Instead, we got a flat week where the October high was taken on a Friday afternoon. The important thing for Santa rally believers, who are expecting the all time highs to be taken out, is that we're on what amounts to a pretty tight deadline, with the final day of the December candle being the deadline. The reason for this is because the indexes went up in a straight line starting the first day of 2023, and this is not likely to repeat itself. And so, what I believe we're in store for, is not a real Santa rally, but a fairly big 150-200 point retrace starting next week, that culminates in a rally that takes out 4,650 by year end, but goes no further. That will mean that 2024 is a very unpleasant year for everyone, U.S. election or not. Perhaps what will stop the Santa Rally from taking the all time highs on the indexes is the looming problems posed to the world by mankind's continued cooperation with and support of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese Communist Party, under former Chairman Jiang Zemin in 1999, launched a full scale organ harvesting genocide and persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Dafa meditation. Those sins are more eternal and boundless than what Nero and the Romans did to Jesus and his Disciples 2,500 years ago by an infinite degree, for the scale is so much larger, the importance of this moment in history is so much more significant, and Falun Gong's students being true spiritual practitioners. Xi Jinping, because he has made himself the head of the Party and has continued to hold onto Marxism and Leninism with a deathgrip, has painted himself into a corner that he only has one way out of. That way is to coup d'etat the CCP and get rid of it like Gorbachev and friends got rid of the USSR. But the clock is ticking. He has to do it before the Wuhan Lung Flame breaches the Emperor's bedroom. And former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by a heart attack just a few weeks ago, and only in his 60s. Either way, the CCP is dust in the wind, and so are all the clowns on Wall Street, governments, big corporations, and Antifa/BLM-style scum of society revolutionary groups who have been either providing blood to or taking blood from the Evil Party all these years. And this means that markets will go up in preparation for the falling guillotine. Because it's ultimately just humans gambling against Gods. So here's the trade. I expect next week, and perhaps also the week after, will bring a ~4-5% retrace that sets up a month end rally into a December rally that takes out 4,600. We won't go sideways, I suspect, but it'll chop up and down and back and forth before finally getting to the point, and so it will probably suck to trade levered ETFs and options. Still, there's a chance to go long coming up ahead with a target above the July highs to end the year, and that is about as good as she gets, I gander. Good luck. I hope you heed the caution about "China" and do your part to social distance and wash your hands from communism and all its related scams.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
2
11/14 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap In yesterday's trading, ES finally bumped into resistance after an 80 point monster short squeeze on Friday. The level of resistance was no coincidence, as it was noted last week that we were closing just above the most significant resistance in ES at 4418-25. This level is the core downtrend line from the August high. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Exploding higher 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints below expectations. Today is CPI day, which is often one of the most volatile, random, and difficult-to-trade days of the year for ES. Key Structures Key structures to note include 4484, 4418-25, 4400-05, 4385, and 4330-36. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-24 (major), 4410, 4400-05 (major), 4386 (major), 4375, 4366 (major), 4360, 4348, 4335 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302, 4290-95 (major), 4279, 4268, 4250-55 (major), 4243, 4233, 4225, 4213 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439 (major), 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-85 (major), 4496, 4507 (major), 4514, 4517 (major), 4525, 4534, 4543 (major), 4550, 4557-60 (major), 4566, 4574 (major), 4581, 4591 (major), 4596, 4610-14 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the megaphone discussed above holding at 4400-05. The bear case generally begins on the failure of 4400-05. On a normal day, there would be a possible breakdown short here, but on CPI day it is very hard to execute without getting trapped. Wrap Up CPI day, expect traps, and failed breakdowns are your best friend. If you over-trade on these days, you are almost certain to lose. Predictability on CPI days is essentially 0, so I can only provide a lean based purely on the structure. My general lean is the megaphone fills out, then plays out. This would look something like defend 4418-24, 4400 lowest, then test 4439, then higher into 4460-63. Megaphone fails at 4400, it gives bears a chance at a proper pullback finally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/13 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, we saw a major squeeze to the 4418-24 upside target. Triggers for this squeeze were a failed breakdown of the 4377-85 level, which was then backtested and cleared on the second attempt, leading to a rapid squeeze higher. The largest, fastest moves often come from failed breakdowns, and this system is built around exploiting this edge. The RSI provided "fuel" for the squeeze, suggesting substantial energy already available for another rally. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down very slightly 💵 Dollar: Up very slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts Moody’s changed the outlook on US government debt from stable to negative. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and APEC Economic Leaders’ Week is underway in San Francisco all week. Key Structures The notable structures and levels from highest to lowest include: 4418-25, 4399, 4381-86, 4330-36, and 4302. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. They are not predictive, but will form the basis of level-to-level trading. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4418-25 (major), 4412, 4399 (major), 4394, 4381-86 (major), 4367,4355, 4347 (major), 4331-36 (major), 4326, 4315, 4302 (major), 4290 (major), 4279, 4268, 4255-58 (major). Resistance Levels 4434, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4460-63 (major), 4472, 4480-85 (major), 4497 (major), 4502, 4514 (major), 4525-28, 4534, 4540-43 (major). Trading Plan Today, the plan is to continue holding the long runner from high 4380s and allow for price discovery to unfold. If we begin a dip today, 4418-25 is first support down. If last Friday’s late-day breakout was a trap, we could sell quite hard starting today. If 4385 fails, we will sell deeply. All shorts are high risk knife catches. Wrap Up In summary, after last Friday's monster rally, it's time to step back and let price discovery reveal what is next. As long as 4418-24 holds, we can continue up the levels to 4439, 4445, 4460-63. If 4418-24 fails, we likely need to dip to 4399 at least. We get a proper leg down only when 4381-86 fails. The aim is not to catch every move, but to catch the portion of the daily moves that correspond to your edge and your pre-planned setups. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/12 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap After an incredible eight-day green streak for ES, we saw a shift on Wednesday as the consolidation range finally broke down, triggering shorts. This was the first real pullback since October 27th, marking the first red day after eight green ones. This week's price action has normalized, and we've settled back into more typical price action, with the 85/15 ratio generally holding before an afternoon trend to the downside yesterday. The Markets Overnight “We are not confident we've achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate.” Jay Powell in a prepared statement for yesterday’s global economy panel discussion. Some US Treasury market settlements were affected by ransomware attacks. Major Global Catalysts 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up Key Structures The core structures/big zones to engage include 4425, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4356, 4347, 4327-35 (major), 4314, 4306-4302 (major), 4290, 4280-83 (major), 4268, 4255-58 (major), 4242 (major), 4231, 4221, 4214 (major). Resistance Levels 4366, 4377 (major), 4386, 4399 (major), 4412, 4418-25 (major), 4430, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4462-65 (major), 4477, 4483 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525, 4530-33 (major), 4542 (major). Trading Plan The general lean is that we can defend 4377, head down to 4336-27, and then bounce. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. Any bear case mentioned here is purely short-term. Generally, though, the bear case is in play as long as we are below 4377ish. As long as it is below it/as long as it holds on any backtest, ES likely dips to 4335-27. Wrap Up It's the first red day after eight green days, but bulls remain firmly in control, and the RSI suggests energy for a squeeze with the right trigger. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. As always, the solution to trading the above action is reactive level-to-level trading. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/9 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap In Tuesday's newsletter, we discussed the historic rally of the ES, which saw 7 green days in a row for the first time since November 2021. While there was a slight dip yesterday, this “red day” was quickly bought up, with ES closing only marginally off the recent highs. The extreme magnitude of this recent 8-day rally was demonstrated by yesterday’s 31-point micro-dip, the largest we have seen since October 27th. ES has spent since Friday in consolidation mode around the 4385 level, likely producing another large move. The Markets Overnight Eurozone finance ministers meet for the Economic and Financial Affairs Council. The council coordinates the economic policies of the 28 member states, and their initiatives and decisions can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco today in an effort to improve relations and economic ties. Major Global Catalysts 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Key Structures The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels Several big-picture structures/levels are notable from highest to lowest. These include 4425-30, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These structures are not comprehensive, but they provide some major ones to note. Resistance Levels 4398 (major), 4410, 4418, 4425-30 (major), 4439, 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-84 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525-30 (major), 4537, 4543 (major). Trading Plan For today, there are two main scenarios to consider. In the bull case, we expect the ES to continue defending 4385 4375 supports, then push higher up the levels to 4410, 4418, 4425-30. In the bear case, we would need to see a failure at 4375-78, which could trigger the significant unwind many are waiting on. As long as above there, though, we continue basing for further upside. Wrap Up We remain in extreme uptrend mode. My general lean is as long as 4386-88, 4375-78 continues to hold on dips, and the rally continues with 4410, 4418, and 4425-30 magnets. If 4375 fails, we can finally begin a pullback. It should be substantial when it triggers. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/7 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap The market has seen an extraordinary seven green days in a row, with ES not only recording its largest single green week since the first week of November last year but also forming a clear bull flag. Yesterday was largely a consolidation day, but it continued the green streak, making it an even rarer six in a row. Today, we tested 4368-66 in the morning, rallied to 4399 minimum, and then rejected there. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down Key Structures The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low. REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Support Levels 4387-85 (major), 4376, 4367-71 (major), 4356, 4343, 4338 (major), 4326, 4321 (major), 4314, 4302-97 (major), 4290, 4279 (major), 4268, 4258, 4253 (major), 4243 (major), 4230, 4215 (major), 4205. Resistance Levels 4399-4401 (major), 4412, 4418, 4424 (major), 4430-32 (major), 4440, 4447-52 (major), 4462 (major), 4473, 4481-84, 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4520, 4525, 4532 (major). Trading Plan The bull case for tomorrow depends on the bull flag continuing to defend, meaning bulls want to hold above 4385, 4367-72 at the absolute lowest. If these hold, ES may have one pop left in it, with the obvious magnet being 4424, 4430-32. The bear case generally begins on the fail of 4367-72, with 4385 failure being an initial warning shot. Wrap Up In summary, any upside from here is purely a bonus. Setups are quite scarce up here, but the general lean is that as long as the bull flag defends (4385, 4367-72) ES can see a pop up the levels to 4424, 4430-32 then try a dip. If 4367-72 fails, we dip direct. In higher, we could expect some short-term consolidation to build up energy before heading higher. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?In my preceeding posts, I'm actually "bullish" on equities in the fourth quarter. SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye? And while I think this price action, coming on the back of news that the US Treasury will "only" issue $10 billion more worth of bonds this quarter (compared to like $160 billion last quarter), indicates that not only are we bullish, but going to take out the all time highs before year end... I have reservations on this SPECIFIC price action being "The Bottom". Before we go further, I will use the early space for those with low attention spans to warn you about the situation in Mainland China. The Chinese Communist Party is the scourge of humanity that seeks to use all beings to destroy all beings. Xi Jinping is its head, and the Party will fall. When you kill a dragon, you kill it by chopping of its head. But before you chop off its head, you often cripple it by chopping its tail. Former Xi Premier and right hand man Li Keqiang was killed by "a heart attack" recently, which is almost certainly code for the "Wuhan Pneumonia Pandemic." The Party's 24-year persecution, and organ harvesting genocide, against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners is a sin that 100.00% guarantees the Party's destruction. And that means it guarantees Xi's destruction, so long as he doesn't drop the CCP Gorbachev-style in time. It does not look like Xi is that intelligent of a man to do that. And so whatever bullish nonsense is arranged by Wall Street, who frequently sleeps with and transfuses blood to the Jiang Faction of the CCP, who are the architects of Falun Gong's persecution and the real evil force behind the Party and "China," to make sure that Communism globally can stay alive until the ruthless end, is subject to abject, merciless, brutal, and sudden truncation. Meaning any rally can be annihilated by international events that are beyond the control of the so-called "controllers" at any time, for we fundamentally exist in a Cosmos that is inherently Divine. There's some flaws on the SPY ETF, which is meaningful, because as I say many times, life revolves around banks and funds selling options and making sure they expire worthless. When we look at the monthly: October took out the June low, as I predicted earlier, but came up like a dollar shy of entering into the April wick. Moreover, when we look at the weekly: Which shows us more clearly the April-May double bottom is just 1%~ lower than the October low, and the $400 psych level is just 2% lower. With this kind of a squeeze happening only 3 trading days into November's candle, and failing to take the high, we're primed to set up for an "outside bar" November that takes out BOTH the low AND the high of October. But what this would mean is we're about to dump below the October low, where the real buying opportunity is. But two problems with the theory are: 1) There's no news drivers next week except for Jerome Powell talking on Thursday. 2) The bull thesis has to complete by December 31 and we're running out of time But that being said, when we had the October bottom last year, we had a 3-day 6% rally to open October before it turned around and took out the low and then rallied. And when we had the COVID bottom because the Fed slashed rates to zero and started buying equities, the market had a 10% rally over the course of a few weeks and gave almost all of it back before setting the biggest highs of all time. So this kind of manipulative behaviour is consistent with the market makers. How to trade it? Well, if it doesn't go down next week then just blindly long anywhere and so long as you aren't buying calls with 0 or 3 days to expiry, you should be okay. If it does go down, buy near the October low and under the October low. The problem is no short setup has manifested as of Friday close, and so we can only sit on the sidelines and look for longs. Whoever was bigly long from Monday or last week should really have taken significant money off the table, cashing in and realizing those gains, this afternoon. Don't forget the Dollar Index stopped just short of $108 and that's a big sign of coming manipulation and that we're too early. This is how algorithms are programmed. Good luck.
AMEX:SPY
by LordWrymouth
2