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Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5088-92 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067 Major Supports: 5054-57 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5005-10 (major), 4966 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5104 (major), 5115-20 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5171-75 (major) Major Resistances: 5191 (major), 5225, 5240-45 (major) Trading Strategy Trading the Chop Zone: The 5088-5115 range is currently a choppy, congested zone. Exercise caution with overtrading and consider sniping within the zone over chasing direction. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5088-92 or 5077. After earnings, focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5115 or the major 5171-75 zone if reached. Given earnings, a breakout of the current flag pattern is possible and could be considered, but use caution. Profit-Taking: With Meta earnings, use level-to-level profit-taking on any position. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the current bull flag structure (5088-5115) is critical. Look for a base building within this range or a breakout. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5133-36/5155 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171-75. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5077 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 25th, 2024 Earnings Releases Meta Earnings: Reports weak revenue guidance, drops 16%.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining control after yesterday's rally but price action becoming more complex after a trend day. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5095-5100 (major), 5082, 5076 (major), 5067 Major Supports: 5056 (major), 5047-45 (major), 5027 (major), 4996-5000, 4966 (major), 4945-49 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5120 (major), 5136 (major), 5171 (major), 5190 (major) Major Resistances: 5220 (major), 5246 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Trend Caution: After a significant move yesterday, be aware of complex price action and increased potential for traps. Prioritize caution over conviction. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of post-trend days, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5090 (after it's reclaimed) or on major supports (5056, 5046-45). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5136 and particularly 5171 for shorting. A breakdown below 5076 could open up downside targets, with level-to-level profit-taking. Risk Management: Scale back position sizing and be prepared to potentially take some losses while price discovery takes place. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5045 zone is encouraging for bulls. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5120/5136 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5095, within a bull flag pattern, could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045 triggers the downside move, while a short-term failure of 5076 could lead to a dip. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 24th, 2024 Economic Environment IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and lingering risks. US Dollar's strength despite expectations of decline. Economic indicators: Focus on upcoming employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving. Stock Market Updates S&P 500 performance: new highs followed by a downturn due to inflation concerns. Additional Market News Boeing's quarterly performance and supply chain stabilization. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you'd like any changes!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at key resistance after yesterday's recovery day. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5040 (major), 5032, 5020 (major) Major Supports: 4996 (major), 4959 (major), 4938 (major), 4903 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5057 (major), 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5115 (major) Major Resistances: 5129 (major), 5141 (major), 5167 (major), 5186-90 (major) Trading Strategy The 5040 Battleground Continues to be critical. Observe for breakouts or breakdowns with close attention. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5040 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5032 or on major supports (4959, 4938). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5081 and particularly 5102 for shorting. A breakdown below 5020 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5040 zone is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081/5102 zone for a sustained recovery attempt. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5057 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5020 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4975 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 23rd, 2024 Economic Environment US GDP growth and the impact of interest rates on corporate America. IMF projections for global economic growth and inflation expectations. Bond market signals regarding Federal Reserve policy. Market Analysis Upcoming economic data releases: GDP estimate and key inflation measure. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966 Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major) Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact. Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt. Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024 Economic Environment IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing. Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector. Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends. Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China. Market Focus Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors. Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving. Additional Market News Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports. Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.14 - 04.19Last Week : Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 - 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge. If the market wasn't weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range. This week : This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ? Friday we did a look below 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn't accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 - 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 - 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 - 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops. For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 - 54.25 and 5174.25 - 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 - 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 - 5154.25 Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 // 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25 Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 - 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there. IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 - 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 - 07.50 area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033 Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major) Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control. Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation remains a factor despite a decline. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders weighing the implications of inflation, economic signals, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5066, 5060, 5054 Major Supports: 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5000-5005 (major), 4990, 4966, 4932-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5082-77 (major), 5090, 5103 (major), 5115-5120 (major) Major Resistances: 5148-50 (major), 5170-75 (major), 5191, 5224, 5287 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on Key Levels: The market is sandwiched between critical support at 5045-47 and resistance at 5082-77. Breakouts in either direction will determine the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5045-47 with failed breakdowns, or at major supports (5000-5005 if reached). Prioritize knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts on backtests of the 5082-77 zone, 5115-20, or 5148-50. A failure of 5045-47 opens the downside, with potential shorts below 5037. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to reclaim 5077-82 for a strong signal, then potentially 5115-20. Holding Support: Continued defense of the 5045-47 trendline is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5077-82 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045-47 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 18th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation declines but remains a factor in market analysis. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Global Markets IMF Global Financial Stability Report discusses market optimism and expected policy easing. Reminder: The market is reacting to key levels and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major) Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major) Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major) Trading Strategy Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction. Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom. Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above. Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first. News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024 Federal Reserve Focus Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts. Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest. Market Performance & Sectors S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary. Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform. Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings. Earnings & Corporate News Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health. United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy. International Economic & Monetary Policies President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry. ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook. Additional Market Updates Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications. Chinese economic growth. Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada. Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079 Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major). Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts. Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way. News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024 Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty. Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease. US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends. Inflation & Fed Rates CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts. Treasury yields react to inflation data. Corporate & Market News Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs. Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns. Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies. Investment Outlooks Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions. Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in. Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
SP500 Forecast: Navigating Bearish Trends Towards New All-Time HThe S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high." Cela semble indiquer que vous prévoyez une baisse temporaire du S&P 500 vers les niveaux de prix mentionnés, avant qu'il ne reprenne sa tendance haussière et crée de nouveaux sommets historiques. User traduit moi ça en anglais ChatGPT "The S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RabyaAQEL
1
Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Highly uncertain due to major geopolitical headline risk over the weekend. Expect significant volatility and potential for large gaps up or down at the Sunday open. Important Note: The escalating tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to cause significant market disruptions. BE PREPARED for a wide range of outcomes, substantial gaps on the open, and rapidly changing market conditions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5163 (major), 5155, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major) Major Supports: 5120, 5115, 5108, 5102-5097 (major), 5091, 5082 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5177 (major), 5185, 5192-95 (major), 5203 (major) Major Resistances: 5218 (major), 5228-30 (major), 5245 (major), 5262 Trading Strategy Weekend Headlines: Be prepared for anything related to the Iran/Israel situation. This news will dominate market reaction. Adaptability is Key: Market conditions could change rapidly, prioritize flexibility and risk management. Sunday Open: Focus on how the market opens and reacts to the news. Large gaps are possible in either direction. Long Opportunities: Due to the high risk, only consider longs after the initial reaction and if a stable support zone forms. Potential bids at 5163, reclaiming 5155, or (depending on the open) reclaiming 5177. Emphasis on failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of any breakdown levels if a strong sell-off occurs. Potentially 5177, 5219, or 5228 if those levels are reached. Knife-Catch Mode: If necessary, use the knife-catch protocol for longs, with small size and emphasis on failed-breakdowns. Bull Case De-escalation: A move towards de-escalation or resolution of the Iran situation could lead to a sharp rebound. Reclaiming 5177: If 5177 is reclaimed with acceptance above, bulls may drive a recovery towards targets of 5195, 5202, 5219. Bear Case Escalation of Conflict: Continued escalation of tensions could lead to a significant market sell-off. Breakdown of 5163: A failure of 5163 opens up downside targets. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown, then consider shorting for a move down the levels. News: Top Stories for April 15th, 2024 Geopolitical Crisis: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominate headlines and overshadow all other news. Potential repercussions for the global economy, oil prices, and markets. Impact on Market Outlook: Uncertainty and volatility dominate the April outlook. Key economic dates and reports may be less impactful given the news focus. Earnings Reports: Earnings season continues, but market focus may be diverted by the geopolitical situation. Other Market and Economic News: Monitor secondary news sources for updates on the Iran/Israel situation and potential market impacts. Reminder: The weekend geopolitical developments introduce extreme uncertainty into the markets. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to quickly adapt your trading strategy.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well. Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future. Illustration 1.02 The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.07 - 04.12Last Week : Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean. This Week : This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet. We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week. To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25 To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas Levels to Watch : Current Range Levels - Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25 5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it. 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75 If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be 5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024 Economic Data & Interest Rates Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns. High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation. Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Earnings & Bank Stocks Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector. Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Market Outlook & Analysis S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance. April historically a bullish month. Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus. Global Markets Japan's 5-year bond yield surges. Singapore's GDP growth remains modest. Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams. Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve. CPI Data and Impact: CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations. Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts. This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major). Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major). Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more. Trading Strategy CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly. Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points. Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs. Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI. Bull Case Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely. Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels. Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 CPI Impact on Markets Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations. Treasury Rates & Fed Policy US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts. Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls. Individual Stocks Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Consolidating within a tight range. Expect a breakout or breakdown with the potential for increased volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246, 5232-35 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207 (major). Major Supports: 5196-98 (major), 5181, 5172 (major), 5155 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5256, 5262 (major), 5274, 5285 (major), 5294, 5302 (major). Major Resistances: 5308 (major), 5327-30 (major), 5348 (major), 5379 (major), and others. Trading Strategy Rangebound Consolidation: ES is forming a tight base between 5235-5263. Exercise patience and prioritize either tactical adds on support tests/failed breakdowns OR hold a runner position with the trend. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5246 and 5232-35 (prioritize the latter). Consider dips below 5232 to 5207 or 5196-98, especially if followed by reclaims. Stick to level-to-level profit-taking. Short Opportunities: While avoiding counter-trend shorts is generally advised, those inclined may consider potential shorts at 5285 (red downtrend resistance) or 5302-08 for dips. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5232-35 zone holds. If it does, consolidation continues, likely forming a bullish triangle for another push toward 5274, 5285, and potentially 5302-08. Adding on Strength: If ES bases above 5246 (with dips below recovered) while staying under 5263, consider potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5232 triggers the bear case. Remember, most breakdowns are traps, so look for a retest and failed breakdown of 5232 first, then consider shorts with level-to-level targets. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 Economic Indicators CPI and PPI data in focus for inflation insights. Bond market signals potential for stable interest rates. Corporate Earnings Big banks to release quarterly reports. Interest Rate Decisions Bank of Canada and ECB announcements could impact FX and indices. EU Joint Borrowing Plan Success of the EU plan could inform future fiscal tools. Corporate Events Blackstone's potential buyout of L’Occitane. Reminder: Expect a breakout from the current tight range, potentially with volatility. Focus on reacting to price action, prioritizing risk management.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish with potential for volatility as CPI data approaches. Important Note: CPI data will be released later this week. Expect outsized moves and potential traps. Prioritize risk management and adaptability. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207, 5203 (major), and others. Major Supports: 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5179 (major), 5172, 5162 (major), 5155, 5144-46 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5255 (major), 5263, 5270 (major), 5279, 5287, 5292 (major), and others. Major Resistances: 5302, 5308 (major), 5311, 5316, 5321, 5329-32 (major), and more. Trading Strategy Defending Support: The 5230-34 zone is crucial for bulls. Holding this level signals potential for an upwards move toward 5287-92, with possible profit-taking dips along the way. Long Opportunities: Focus on the 5230-34 zone (if today's high remains unbroken). In case of a breakdown, use extreme caution and target major supports like 5203 and 5191. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims as potential long entry signals. Shorting with Caution: Shorting into strength within bull markets is inherently risky. If considering shorts, the best area is the 5287-92 zone (red downtrend channel), with another potential reaction at 5270. Bull Case Holding Strong: As long as 5230-34 support holds (ideally with a minor dip promptly bought below 5203), the path is open to 5287-92. Expect another dip there before potentially reaching new all-time highs. Ultra Bullish Scenario: If bulls hold above 5246 and buy any small dips, this signals strength and could lead to potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: If 5230-34 fails, the bear case activates. Since most breakdowns trap, look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider short entries with level-to-level profit targets. News: Top Stories for April 8th, 2024 Stock Market Outlook S&P 500 hits record highs, strong Q1 performance increases bullish sentiment. Reduced recession fears and potential Fed pivot drive positive outlook. April historically favorable for the S&P 500. Analysts forecast strong earnings growth with significant upside potential. Corporate Earnings Intel's Q1 2024 financial results release set for April 25th. Perion Network updates guidance, increases share buyback. Economic Indicators Q4 GDP growth remains solid despite high interest rates. Bond market signals potential Fed rate cuts as early as June. Trade deficit widens, while manufacturing data shows strength. Technology Sector Modest growth expected in 2024, with IT investment plans. AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity to drive tech spending. Other Corporate and Market News Nvidia's strong performance continues in AI chip market. Tesla faces challenges in China, automotive growth slows. Boeing impacted by quality control concerns. Upcoming Events Tech conferences including Google Cloud Next and ODSC East. Women in Tech Global Conference highlights industry leaders. Reminder: The CPI release this week will likely cause significant volatility. Adapt your trading accordingly, with an emphasis on reacting to price action and prioritizing risk management.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial. Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major). Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302. Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major). Trading Strategy Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim. Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits. Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential. Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch. Bear Case Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196). News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024 U.S. Jobs Report Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added. Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience. Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing. Corporate News Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced. Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations. Market Performance S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1. Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights. Global Economic Indicators Japan monitors volatile Yen movements. Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns. India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates. Energy Sector Oil dividend stock recommendations for April. Shell's gas output exceeds guidance. Monetary Policy & Inflation Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut. Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end. Geopolitical Concerns Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities. U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power. Technology & Disinformation Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan. Market Outlook J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential. Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts. Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as traders weigh consolidation signs against the underlying bullish trend. Weekly Volatility Risk: High (consolidation phase, earnings, Fed uncertainty) Key Supports Support Levels: 5266, 5257(major), 5246, 5241 (major), 5235 (major), 5231, 5222 (major), 5212 (major), 5208, 5203, 5196, 5192 (major), 5181 (major), 5171, 5163 (major), 5155, 5148, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5120, 5115, 5109 (major), 5105, 5092-95 (major) Key Resistances Resistance Levels: 5274, 5279 (major), 5285 (major), 5294, 5298-5302 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5322, 5329 (major), 5341, 5347, 5354 (major), 5363 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5400, 5408 (major), 5416, 5423-26 (major), 5435, 5447 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Zone: We're likely in a consolidation phase between 5241 and 5279. This requires flexibility and adaptability – overly aggressive trading will likely be punished. Supports: Look for potential long opportunities at 5257 (if today's high isn't broken), with stronger plays at 5246 or the 5241-35 zone. Be cautious with longs above these levels. Resistances: Shorting resistance areas carries risk in a bull market. Consider shorts near the 5298-5302 zone, primarily for scalps. Breakdown Watch: A decisive break below 5235 activates the bear case, triggering breakdown setups. Remember, breakdowns often trap traders – patience is key. Look for a failed breakdown (rejection and recovery), then consider shorts with level-to-level targets. Bull Case Holding Support: As long as 5241-35 holds, bulls maintain control. Consolidation between 5241-5279 likely, followed by a potential breakout above the 5298-5302 zone. This could lead to retesting 5315+. Expect Consolidation: We may not immediately reach new all-time highs. Be prepared for an extended consolidation period before the next push higher. Bear Case Key Breakdown Level: A strong break below 5235 signals a bear move. Look for failed breakdowns and bounces as shorting opportunities. Exercise caution due to the potential for traps. News: Top Stories for April 4th, 2024 Federal Reserve Outlook Fed signals continued focus on rate stability rather than immediate cuts. Concerns remain about the potential impact on equities in the long-term. Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics Bitcoin surpasses $70,000 with continued bullish momentum. Approaching Bitcoin halving sparks interest in the sector. Global Economic Indicators Eurozone growth strengthens, while major economies like Germany & France lag. Inflation remains a concern, influencing the potential for rate adjustments. Financial Services Sector Outlook remains positive for financial stocks, with specific recommendations. Increased focus on weathering rising interest rates & long-term market resilience. Additional Market Updates Risk-off sentiment following natural disasters in Asia. Eurozone inflation data signals the potential for ECB rate cuts. Warnings & Opportunities Analysts express caution regarding select financial stocks before a potential crisis. Technology continues to disrupt finance, with evolving focus on AI and blockchain within the space. Important Reminder: Despite the potential for short-term pullbacks, the main trend remains bullish. Consolidation is likely. Prioritize adaptability, risk management, and reacting to the price action rather than relying solely on predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend. Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major) Trading Strategy: Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84. Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy. Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Bull Case Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219. News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024 Fed Policy Outlook: Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities. Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible. Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy. Stock Market Performance: S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019. Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date. April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic. Economic Indicators: Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes. Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June. Global Developments: China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery. Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB. Corporate News: Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions. Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector. Investment Considerations: Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment. Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend. Climate Risk & Regulation: The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk. Cryptocurrency & Blockchain: Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption. Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.24 - 03.29Last Week : Last week we opened below 5227 - 07.50 HTF Edge but weren't able to hold under it, we got some selling from Edge area back down towards VAH but not strong enough to get inside or break it, for any continuation under we needed to get through it which didn't happen. Once we got back over the Edge on Tuesday and this time held above, we were able to put together a cost basis there and once we took out VAL of New Range above VAH became our Target. We didn't hit it same day but got to it after hours which we know has less volume so its easier to move the market. We ended up tagging top of VAH but no strong buyers came in to take us over and that's when we started building the supply to back fill back towards the Mean to end the week with a break back under 5295.50 - 90.50. This Week : So far going into this week we know we have sellers over VAH and unless strong buyers come in, our current ones don't need to pay over Value. It's also Month end and this is a perfect spot for size longs to be taking profits and closing things up, BUT look at the small distribution ranges we had rest of the week which tells us we don't have size sellers to give us big moves from here so we will most likely need to wait for Supply to build up if we want to see continuation under 95.50 - 90.50. For now the Mean can act as support as shorts will be trying to cover at cheaper prices for the supply that falls under 5300. This might be a tricky week again and ranges could be small while we are building Supply, we can see some tighter range balances around this top of Mean/VAH area and need to be careful with longs because we do have sellers now and long trades might fizzle out quicker than everyone wants as shorts don't have to pay higher prices while we have longs unloading into the buying to close out the month. If we can't make a push or accept over VAH and build up enough supply we could see a move through the Mean towards VAL at some point, just have to be careful forcing it early as we may need more time to test around VAH before we have the supply to do that. IF we do run out of selling at VAH and accept over 5322.50 we could see a run at next Key Resistance area towards the Edge but for that we would need to build up under VAH and inside it as well. 5310 - 06 area can still be tested and maybe even over it at some point before we get a better failure to see a move to push us further trough the mean. Quicker trades without expecting too much follow through would be best bet until we see that we will be ready to move. Levels to watch : Supply is over 5310.50 - 06.50 Which makes it possible resistance or to look for look above and fail area. If we get through and don't fail we have 5324.75 - 20.75 as VAH top and 5341 - 36 as next Key Resistance. 5295.50 - 90.25 is current Key Area but we can't really say its our Support or Resistance just yet even though we closed at/under it on Friday, this area can act as smaller Mean, but once we have enough Supply over it and can get through we can watch lower targets for Continuation 5279.25 - 75.25 is first spot to hit and if enough supply VAL area at 5264.75 - 60.75 would be a good spot to visit as well. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for anything under VAL. It is a shorter Holiday week so we have to be careful and see if we get any moves out of this area at all or will we spend the whole week trading around Mean/VAH area if that will be the case 5310.50 - 06.50 // 5295.50 - 90.25 +/- is our current shelf and can see trading within/around until we will be ready to move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn