US500S&P500: I want to Short the ES right here with 1% risk .
Notice: Use sell Stop order to find the best price .
Es!
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but highly extended and statistically due for a significant pullback after 10 consecutive green days. Proceed with extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5308-10 (major)
Major Supports: 5272 (major), 5253-56 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5145-50 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5327-31 (major), 5337 (major), 5370-72 (major)
Major Resistances: 5395-5400 (major), 5430-35 (major)
Trading Strategy
Extreme Caution: 10 green days in a row is statistically rare, and a deep pullback could occur at any time.
Long Opportunities: Avoid chasing long entries at current levels. Focus on potential bids at 5308-10 only after a dip and strong reaction (ideally, a failed breakdown of the afternoon low). Consider deeper longs at 5272, 5253-56, or lower majors only on strong confirmations (failed breakdowns of lows, etc.).
Short Opportunities: While shorting in a strong uptrend is discouraged, those comfortable with counter-trend trades may consider the 5370-72 zone, but only after a bounce/failed breakdown. Proceed with extreme caution.
Prioritize Preservation: Focus on protecting profits and minimizing risk exposure in this highly uncertain environment. Avoid overtrading and wait for high-probability setups.
Bull Case
Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES needs to hold above 5308-10 on any dips, with a new base forming between 5308 and 5331. This would be the most bullish scenario, leading to a potential test of 5337, 5348, then 5370-72.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5308-10 could trigger a substantial dip. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns at 5272, 5253-56, and lower major supports for potential long entries if the market rebounds. If 5308-10 fails, consider shorts after a bounce/failed breakdown at 5300.
News: Top Stories for May 16th, 2024
📈 S&P 500 Hits All-Time High: Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high, closing at 5,253 points. This reflects investor confidence and market optimism driven by favorable economic indicators and expectations of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
🌐 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are preparing for their spring meetings amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. These meetings will address global economic issues, including conflict impacts and strategic economic adjustments.
🏦 UN Economic Update: The United Nations will launch the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. This update will assess global economic conditions, highlighting challenges such as high interest rates, debt difficulties, and geopolitical risks.
📊 Wall Street Analyst Revisions: Wall Street analysts are revising their forecasts for the S&P 500 due to the market's unexpected strength. This reflects the dynamic nature of market expectations and investor agility in navigating the evolving financial landscape.
🌍 Critical Minerals Demand: Global economic discussions are focusing on managing the demand for critical minerals essential for low-carbon technologies. This ties into broader sustainability goals and the economic opportunities and challenges for developing countries.
US Markets May Rally 60% to 100% On Strong Technical DataI posted a similar video yesterday, but it was taken down because I screwed up the content. So, I'll try to post this video without messing up the content.
The US markets (particularly the NAS100 - as shown in this video) will likely continue to move in a strong bullish price trend - even against the multiple divergences and other technical peak/exhaustion patterns over the next 3 to 4+ years.
Far too many people simply don't understand the dynamics at play right now, with the superheated US economy and the predatory Fed processes creating this parabolic Bullish price move.
Be prepared. Many people will be picking tops for the next 3~4+ years, and you are going to hear a lot of FEAR in their voices. You must attempt to understand the true market dynamics at play and stay away from group-think.
Hope you enjoy this video.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major)
Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major)
Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major)
Trading Strategy
Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns.
Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution.
Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively.
Bull Case
Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+.
Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries.
News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024
📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve).
🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today).
📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF).
🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).
Why Large Firms with Huge Cash? Small Firm Are Leading...Berkshire Hathaway, an investment company is not investing. What is the signal?
Why are they hoarding cash?
• Not much good investment opportunity ahead
• Preparing for tougher time
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major)
Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major)
Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major)
Trading Strategy
Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76.
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution.
Bull Case
Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302.
Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps.
News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024
China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects.
Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management.
Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain.
Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders.
Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies.
China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics.
Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major)
Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major)
Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major)
Trading Strategy
Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness.
Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals.
Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move.
Bull Case
Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303.
Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024
1. Corporate Earnings Surge
Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations.
Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices.
2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates
Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates.
Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy.
3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast
Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges.
Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures.
4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact
Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices.
Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment.
5. Key Economic Indicators Release
Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week.
Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with a cautious undertone after a significant multi-day rally. Expect potential profit-taking and a reduction in aggressive buying activity. A period of consolidation is highly likely.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5235-37, 5228, 5209 (major), 5203 (major)
Major Supports: 5177-79 (major), 5155 (major), 5120 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5268-72 (major)
Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5326-28 (major), 5395 (major)
Trading Strategy
Capital Preservation Focus: After a strong multi-day rally, prioritize protecting your gains. Adopt a defensive posture and consider reducing position sizes.
Limited Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions and the potential for a pullback, look for very selective long entries if at all. Focus on failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying dips at major support levels, with 5209 or failed breakdowns at 5203 offering potential opportunities.
Short Opportunities: While your personal trading rules discourage shorting green candles and breaking trends, monitor back-tests of 5246 and 5268-72 for potential short entries with tight stop losses. Proceed with extreme caution.
Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, avoid emotional trading, and prioritize minimizing risk exposure.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5203-5209 zone remains crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a continuation of the breakout, targeting 5246, then 5268-72.
Ultra Bullish Scenario (Unlikely): A parabolic move overnight pushing through 5246 would be required for a continuation without a proper dip. Monitor overnight basing above 5228 and below 5246 for clues about strength.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5203 would signal a potential pullback and retest of lower supports. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 10th, 2024
Global Stock Market Trends:
U.S. Market Performance: Modest gains seen in U.S. stock indices, reflecting optimism despite mixed April performance.
European and Asian Market Dynamics: Positive movements noted in European and Asian markets, driven by solid economic data and central bank easing.
Impact of Economic Indicators: U.S. labor market easing influences market expectations regarding potential rate cuts.
Sector-Specific Movements: Technology sector experiences volatility, while energy sector sees potential stabilization.
Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails amid anticipation of rate cuts and easing inflation, alongside geopolitical risks and trade negotiations.
Assessment of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies:
Global Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures challenge central banks' efforts to meet targets.
Central Banks' Stance: Cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments observed globally.
Economic Implications: High interest rates may slow down consumer spending and business investments.
Inflation Expectations and Future Policies: Central banks closely monitor inflation expectations to inform future policy decisions.
Impact on Global Economic Stability:
Corporate Financial Developments and Deals: Companies announce financial results and engage in strategic transactions, reflecting market dynamics and regulatory changes.
Forward-Looking Corporate Statements: Companies adjust strategies to navigate current market conditions and regulatory environments effectively.
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with increasing uncertainty as the market enters a consolidation phase. Expect choppy trading within a defined range. Prioritize patience and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5194 (major)
Major Supports: 5177 (major), 5155 (major), 5131-36 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5213 (major), 5219 (major), 5229-33 (major)
Major Resistances: 5246 (major), 5263-66 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Mode: Recognize that the market has shifted from a strong trending environment to a choppy consolidation phase. Adapt your trading strategy accordingly, focusing on small gains and disciplined risk management.
Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5203 or 5194 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retests of the 5177, 5155, and 5131-36 breakout zone or knife-catches for quick scalps.
Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the inherent risk of shorting against strength in a bull market, avoid aggressive short positions. Monitor back-tests of 5229-33 or 5263-66 for potential short entries, targeting level-to-level profits.
Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Overtrading within a tight range can lead to losses.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5194 level and ideally the 5131-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above the lower range boundary would indicate a healthy consolidation and base for potential continuation higher.
Base Building and Rebound: A period of consolidation within the 5194-5219 range followed by a rebound off the lower zone would set the stage for further advances, targeting 5229-33, 5246, then 5263-66.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5194, more significantly below 5177 would signal a deeper pullback and a potential retest of the 5131-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 9th, 2024
Global Stock Market Trends:
Varied Performance: Mixed responses observed in Asian markets; Wall Street experiences second consecutive day of lull.
Influence of Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions impact investor confidence and market stability.
Recovery Post-COVID-19: Economic recovery contributes to increased positive correlation among global stock markets.
Technological Advancements and Stock Market Analysis:
Complex Network Analysis: Studies highlight increased interconnectedness among global stock markets.
Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical unrest continues to pose risks, affecting capital flows and commodity markets.
Future Outlook: Predicted trends focus on sustained recovery and nuanced understanding of market interdependencies.
Overview of International Trade and Currency Fluctuations:
Currency Fluctuation Dynamics: Currency values influence international trade competitiveness and economic policies.
Role of Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth significantly affect currency valuation.
Risk Management Strategies: Businesses employ hedging strategies to mitigate currency fluctuation risks.
Government Policies: Monetary and fiscal policies play crucial roles in stabilizing currency values.
Impact of Central Banks' Policies on Global Economy:
Economic Stabilization: Central banks manipulate monetary policies to address economic fluctuations and crises.
Influence on Inflation and Interest Rates: Adjustments in interest rates affect global economic conditions.
Effects on Financial Markets: Central bank policies directly impact asset prices and investment flows.
Response to Economic Shocks: Central banks provide monetary lifelines during economic crises to stabilize financial systems.
Pre-Market Analysis: May 9th, 2024 $ES & $SPYMarket Observations:
The S&P 500 futures NYSE:ES and S&P 500 ETF AMEX:SPY have consolidated with low volume over the past two days.
Trading Strategy:
Given the current range-bound price action, I am not actively seeking trades around the 5200-5210 level.
Instead, I am looking for a breakout from this range accompanied by increased volume to establish a directional trend.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained breakout above 5210 suggests a potential rally towards 5240.
Entry: Long after a pullback that finds support above 5210.
Note: Short positions may be considered if weakness emerges around 5210.
Bearish Scenario:
A sustained break below 5200 could lead to a decline towards 5180 and potentially 5150.
Given the recent buying pressure, this decline would likely be swift.
Entry: Short positions may be considered, but with limited size due to the potential for quick reversals.
Overall:
This analysis provides a framework for potential trading opportunities based on the current market conditions.
Like and Retweet if you found this helpful!
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 05.05 - 05.10Last Week :
Last week we opened up around the Mean of 5182.50 - 5115.75 Value. Consolidated around the Mean, built up supply and eventually started moving for the Spike Base, lower Edge and lower ranges VAH to fill those areas out but every time we hit VAH we found a bid there which would hold us over and that would bring in new buying to keep pushing us back towards 5125 - 15.75 VAL. We got good trading back and forth between the Bid and Supply but eventually end of the week once market found no acceptance in lower Value and couldn't stay under the Edge low shorts had to cover driving the price back into previous Value for the Supply which was at and above the Mean.
This Week :
Few things to note this week, with how strong the Pre Market push was on Friday which drove us over 5125 - 15.75 VAL right into next Key Resistance of 5159.25 - 54.25 we were not able to right away get over or hold over this area in RTH, the end of day push through that area was also weak and left 1 single above us and that is not counting the other sets of singles which are higher so this tells us there is still Supply around this VAH and above Value areas.
Of course this doesn't mean we will just sell off from this area but it is something to note if we think market will just continue higher through VAH towards above Edge as this push over 5159.25 - 54.25 can fail and come back in once the distribution over it is finished and we run out of buying.
Going into this week we are now in 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range and from here we watch if we find acceptance here and get more buying which will push us to and through VAH for a chance to head for above Edge ? Do we start building a base here under VAH cleaning out Supply above it and then take it up for distribution over it ? Or do we run out of buying and come back in under 5159.25 - 54.25 to start back filling this move towards VAL to fill out that push from Friday with Supply. Will more size longs step in here to keep buying to push the market higher or will size be waiting to see how this area plays out as we know there could be size sellers here and longs like to buy under Value or after seeing areas get taken out and start holding.
To me Weekly TF had a weak close to end the week, Daily closed at the top of Daily Balance with a push just over it and Daily TF is still currently in a downtrend so to speak if we look at VWAP and smaller MA. This kind of hints on not finding acceptance here just yet or least if we do then above Edge still should keep us under the 5200s areas for now. We don't have much data or market moving events this week which hints on even if we don't find acceptance up here and will start a move back down it might not be as fast and strong as we have seen last weeks, it might be more of a leak/hold action back towards the VAL.
Levels to Watch :
Current Intraday Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 This is VAH and we would need to start holding between those to find acceptance in this range.
5159.25 - 54.25 Will this now be our Key Support or we find our way back under ?
If Accept back under 5159.25 - 54.25 we watch for move back towards VAL
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 for any continuation under
If hold/accept over VAH would need to get through and accept over 5204.25 - 07.50 Edge bottom for any higher prices towards Edge top.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 8th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly cautious in the overbought market. Consolidation is ongoing, and a deeper pullback is likely before further advances. Maintain disciplined risk management.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5209 (major), 5202, 5188-91 (major)
Major Supports: 5143-36 (major), 5067-69 (major),
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5224 (major), 5246 (major), 5265-70 (major)
Major Resistances: 5302-06 (major), 5328-30 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Breakout Dip Anticipated: The market is overdue for a healthy pullback after the recent strong surge.
Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5202 or 5188-91 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retest of the breakout zone at 5143-36 or knife-catches at 5168 for quick scalps.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5246 or 5265-70 for short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Proceed with extreme caution and be ready to cut losses quickly. Remember, shorting against strength in a bull market is inherently risky.
Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5143-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a healthy dip and a potential continuation higher.
Rebase and Bounce: A period of consolidation around 5190-5224 and a rebound off these supports would set the stage for further advances, potentially targeting 5246, then 5265-70.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5188-91 would signal a potential pullback and could lead to a retest of the 5143-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 8th, 2024
Global Stock Market Trends:
Varied Performance: Asian markets show resilience despite Nikkei 225 drop, influenced by mixed corporate news.
U.S. Economic Indicators: U.S. jobs report and Fed's interest rate decisions continue to influence global markets positively.
Geopolitical Tensions: Market responses to geopolitical unrest remain muted, highlighting diversified global economies' resilience.
Company Earnings and Forecasts:
Earnings Performance: Uber reports Q1 loss; Thomson Reuters shows strong revenue growth.
Financial Forecasts: Taboola expects significant YoY growth; Thomson Reuters adjusts full-year outlook.
Sector-Specific Insights: Technology and financial services sectors demonstrate strong growth potential despite operational losses.
Analysts' Perspectives:
Setting Market Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings based on economic indicators, trends, and company guidance.
Implications for Investors: Earnings reports influence market sentiment and investor confidence, impacting stock prices.
Impact on Currency Values:
Political Events: Geopolitical tensions historically impact currency fluctuations, yet recent responses remain subdued, reflecting diversified global markets' resilience.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly cautious following a strong breakout. The RSI is deeply overbought, increasing the risk of sudden pullbacks. Proceed with heightened awareness of volatility.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5186-88 (major), 5163 (major)
Major Supports: 5144-46 (major), 5060-65 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5214-5218 (major), 5246-50 (major)
Major Resistances: 5272 (major), 5302-04 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Breakout Cautiousness: The market is in overbought territory following today's strong surge. Prioritize capital preservation and maintain disciplined risk management. Avoid chasing longs or aggressively shorting against strength.
Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions, focus on failed breakdowns at 5186-88 or ideally 5144-46 for long entries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5163 for quick scalps.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5214-5218, 5246-50, or potentially 5272 for short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Proceed with extreme caution and be ready to cut losses quickly.
Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5144-46 breakout zone remains crucial for bulls. Holding above this level would indicate a healthy dip and a potential continuation higher.
Consolidation and Bounce: A period of consolidation and a rebound off 5186-88 or 5144-46 would set the stage for further advances, potentially targeting 5214-18, then 5246-50.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5186-88 would signal a potential pullback and could lead to a retest of the 5144-46 breakout zone. A breach of 5144-46 would be a more significant bearish development. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 7th, 2024
Federal Reserve's Influence:
Interest Rate Decision: Fed keeps rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, reflecting concerns about inflation and labor market conditions.
April 2024 Jobs Report: Economy adds 175,000 jobs in April, below expectations, potentially alleviating inflation pressures.
Commercial Real Estate Midyear Outlook: Despite high-interest rates, commercial real estate sectors show resilience, suggesting less sensitivity to monetary policy.
Global Economic Growth Forecasts: World Bank and OECD predict below-average global GDP growth for 2024, influencing market sentiments and central bank policies.
Impact on Market Dynamics:
Bond and Equity Markets: Higher rates increase Treasury yields, shifting investor preference towards bonds and contributing to equity market volatility.
Housing Market Effects: Housing prices respond swiftly to policy adjustments, driven by changes in mortgage rates, impacting affordability and market health.
Influence on International Trade: Stronger dollar affects trade balance by making exports costlier and imports cheaper, potentially moderating domestic inflation.
Future Outlook:
Market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts not expecting rate cuts until at least 2025 if inflation persists, influencing investment and consumer behaviors.
Trading Plan for Monday, May 6th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 6th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls seeking further confirmation after exceeding a major resistance level on Friday. Consolidation and complex, level-to-level price action are likely.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5145-50 (major), 5136, 5116-13 (major)
Major Supports: 5082-77 (major), 5067 (major), 5060 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5176-86 (major), 5213 (major)
Major Resistances: 5245 (major), 5272 (major), 5302-05 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Anticipated: Expect a period of price discovery and complex, potentially choppy price action following Friday's strong breakout. Prioritize level-to-level trading.
Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid chasing direct bids at support. Look for failed breakdowns of 5136 (ideally with a reclaim) or 5116 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at major supports (5082, 5067).
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5213, or potentially 5176-86 (riskier) for short entries. Proceed with caution and be quick to take profits.
Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel increases volatility and requires a disciplined approach. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5113-16 breakout zone remains crucial, with 5060 as the broader support floor.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5150 and potentially establish a base around that level for further confirmation. Breakouts above 5176-86, and ultimately 5213 would provide further bullish signals.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5113-16 would signal a failure of Friday's breakout, inviting a deeper retracement. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns around 5136 and 5116 for potential short entries. A breach of 5060 would be a significant bearish development.
News: Top Stories for May 6th, 2024
Impact on Stock Markets:
Immediate Market Reactions: Markets react swiftly to news events, with geopolitical tensions often inducing volatility.
Economic Indicators Influence: Market sentiment is shaped by economic indicators like employment rates and inflation reports.
Central Bank Announcements: Decisions by major central banks, such as interest rate changes, heavily influence global markets.
Corporate Earnings Reports: Quarterly earnings reports impact stock prices and market indices.
Geopolitical Events: Events like elections and conflicts can increase market uncertainty and volatility globally.
Economic Policy Changes:
Shifts in Industrial Policies: Increase in protectionist measures raises concerns about global growth.
US and EU Policies on China: Alignment in economic security policies aims to reduce dependency on Chinese goods.
Global Trade System Reconfiguration: WTO conference could reshape trade policies and impact global GDP.
Regulatory Changes in Digital Trade: US withdrawal from digital trade agreements affects multinational corporations and data management.
Environmental Regulations: International trade agreements mandate sustainability measures, transforming global operations.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bulls maintaining a tentative lead ahead of multiple high-impact market events (Apple Earnings and Jobs Report). Expect extreme volatility and plan accordingly.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5068 (major), 5054 (major trendline - note this level rises daily)
Major Supports: 5028 (major), 5001 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5116 (major), 5136 (major)
Major Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5191 (major), 5208 (major)
Trading Strategy
Earnings and Jobs Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable, potentially violent price swings triggered by the Apple earnings release (4:30 PM EST) and the jobs report (8:30 AM EST). Prioritize reacting to price action over anticipating.
Capital Preservation: Adopt a cautious approach and consider reducing position sizes or even sitting out the immediate volatility. Focus on protecting your gains from today's squeeze.
Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid direct bids at support. Prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5028, 5001).
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5116 and 5136 for shorts, but only if markets exhibit a strong negative reaction to earnings or positive jobs data. Proceed with extreme caution.
Focus on Levels: Use the provided support and resistance levels to guide your decisions, regardless of the volatility. Pay close attention to failed breakdowns and setups, as they will be the most reliable in this environment.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5054-50 support zone remains crucial.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081 resistance zone after any potential sell-off on events, working back towards 5116, then 5136 for further confirmation and a potential sustained breakout.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5054-50 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries. Be mindful of whipsaws and traps around major events.
News: Top Stories for May 3rd, 2024
Impact of Monetary Policies:
U.S. Monetary Policy and Global Markets: Contractionary policy affects global financial conditions through various channels.
Responses to U.S. Policy Shifts: Tightening policy induces global deleveraging and affects asset prices and credit flows.
Emerging Markets' Sensitivity: EMs experience volatility and capital outflows due to U.S. policy changes.
Transmission Mechanisms: Policy changes influence dollar-denominated assets, global credit conditions, and bank behavior.
Long-Term Implications:
Global Trade Outlook: Modest rebound in 2024 challenged by interest rates, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions.
Manufacturing Sector Performance: Continued uncertainty with challenges like labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.
Advances in Digital Manufacturing: Adoption of digital twins and smart tech enhances operational efficiencies.
Geopolitical Impact on Trade: Persistent tensions disrupt global trade, highlighting vulnerability of supply chains to political instability.
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 2nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls holding a precarious position at a critical support level.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5048-50 (major - note that this trendline rises daily), 5032, 5028 (major)
Major Supports: 5010 (major), 4968 (major), 4938-42 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5077-82 (major), 5102 (major), 5126 (major), 5136 (major)
Major Resistances: 5155 (major), 5197-5202 (major), 5246-50 (major)
Trading Strategy
Critical Support Test: Vigilantly monitor the critical 5048-50 support zone for signs of breakdown or sustained defense.
Long Opportunities: Due to heightened volatility, avoid direct bids at support. Instead, prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries, potentially around 5032 or 5028. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5010, 4968, 4938-42).
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5126 and 5136 for shorts, but only if a strong bearish reaction to FOMC is evident. Proceed with caution.
Risk Management: Maintain disciplined risk management and tighter stops in this volatile period.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5048-50 support zone is crucial. A failed breakdown with a quick reclaim above 5032-28 could trigger a move higher.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push back to 5077-82, with a potential retest of that resistance, then onward to the 5126-36 zone for further confirmation and potential breakout.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5048-50 followed by a deeper dip through 5028 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 2nd, 2024
Analysis of Stock Market Trends:
U.S. Market Performance: Mixed responses post-Fed's rate decision, with slight Dow increase and S&P, Nasdaq declines.
Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflation shapes Fed policies, influencing market dynamics.
Sector-Specific Trends: Tech sector drives market, but faces valuation challenges and regulatory scrutiny.
Global Market Influences: European markets resilient; contrasting approaches to interest rates and inflation with the U.S.
Investment Strategies:
Federal Funds Rate Stability: Fed maintains high rate amid inflation concerns, impacting market expectations.
Inflation Trends and Policy: Slow decrease in inflation complicates rate cuts, influencing investment decisions.
Global Impact: Fed's policies affect global markets, especially in emerging economies and those tied to U.S. standards.
Long-term Considerations:
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts threaten global supplies; Middle East escalation could disrupt oil production.
Economic Slowdown: China's slowdown poses risks globally, impacting markets and economic stability.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Central banks balance inflation control without hindering growth, posing risks.
Technological Transformations: Rapid tech changes create opportunities and risks, transforming labor markets.
Environmental Risks: Growing environmental concerns pose economic consequences, impacting industries.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.28 - 5.03Last Week :
Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought in the weakness needed to make a push back inside lower range towards VAH which looked promising for continuation since we were under Supply and under Settlement ranges but instead we failed to accept in Value pushed back to the Edge and end of day Spike pushed us over VAL where we spent Friday filling out that area of singles over VAL in a tighter distribution Range after failing to get back under 5112.05 - 07.50.
This Week :
Going into this week we have retail month end to finish up the month, we have new month starting and lots of data dropping this week as well. Our question this week is will we find acceptance back in this 5227 - 5066 Ranges Value ? are there actually bigger buyers in that Spike base to keep us up and start balancing here and continue filling out this VAL / Mean / VAH area ? Area over 5144 still has Single Prints above which are Supply and Volume trapped above them. Or maybe more selling will come in to give moves back under VAL to fill out that Spike Base to see if there are still buyers in that Edge or if we will start working our way under it towards the Value where we were able to transact through the whole thing and put in Time and Volume ?
Friday we tried to make a push over 5144 - 40.25 which was 5159 - 5107 Intrarange Resistance but failed the few attempts and stayed withing the ranges Mean of 5144 - 5125.
If we are to accept in this range and 5112.50 - 07.50 will keep acting as support then we can look to keep trading this current Intraday range of 5159 - 5107 and IF we continue holding over 5129 - 25 we could eventually get enough buying to try and fill out those single prints up to the Key Resistance. We would need to get through 5159.25 - 54.25 to see any higher prices with moves towards above VAH.
If the buying here is not strong and we just continue building up Supply around this current mean and can't fill the single prints up to the Key Resistance above or fill but fail to accept over then we can look for a return back towards the VAL and see a test of that 5112.50 - 07.50 area, if buying at that Spike base doesn't hold then we can see a move back towards the Edge to fill that Spike Base out and test the Edge again to see if there is still buying or if we will get back under the Edge and head for Previous Value.
With lots of news and data it could be a tricky week, Friday ended very slow after volatile action, will the slow theme continue this week ? If so need to be very patient letting things properly set up and show Failures or strength at levels before trying to catch the moves. Market is trying to find a range to start balancing in, I feel like 5086 - 4925 is the HTF Range market wants to be in and our destination is still lower but how fast or slow it will get moving there is the question and for now we are over the Edge which is telling us otherwise while we are inside 5182 - 15 Value... but just something to keep in mind if we don't find acceptance needed in here.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5159.25 - 5107.50
Key Levels for Continuation out 5159.25 - 54.25 // 5112.50 - 07.50
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
If Accept Below Targets Spike Base and move back to Edge
Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75
Key Area 5065.75 - 60.75
If holds current range and accepts over Key Resistance, above range is 5204.25 - 5154.25
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Find ourself back under 5086 - 66 Edge watch out for continuation towards VAH / Mean and VAL of 5086 - 4925 Range.
$NVDA $650 by 6/1Welp.... say it ain't so... do what you want of course... I have this target by June 1st of this year. Refer to 22' Top.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 1st, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 1st, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with the potential for sharp swings amplified by the FOMC announcement. Increased caution and focus on capital preservation are paramount.
Key Supports
Major Supports: 5060 (major), 5043-47 (major), 5030-32 (major), 5000 (major)
Additional Supports: 4976 (major), 4938-41 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5066, 5077-82 (major), 5102 (major), 5144 (major)
Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5200 (major), 5246-50 (major)
Trading Strategy
FOMC Volatility: Expect unpredictable price swings driven by reactions to the FOMC interest rate decision and related news.
Prioritize Capital Preservation: Focus on protecting your account rather than chasing aggressive moves. Adapt position sizing and risk management strategies accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Due to FOMC, direct bids are high risk. Focus on failed breakdowns for better risk/reward. Potentially long at major support levels after flushes and reclaims (5043-47, 5030-32).
Short Opportunities: Due to FOMC, direct shorts are also high risk. Watch for strong bounces and failed breakdowns. Consider shorts at key resistance levels only if the reaction to FOMC is definitively bearish. Proceed with extreme caution.
Level-to-Level Trading: Employ level-to-level scalping techniques and profit-taking, navigating this volatile environment with tighter stops.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5043-47 support zone is crucial for bulls, with 5030-32 as the absolute minimum. Reclaiming resistances like 5066 could indicate buyer strength.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5030, intensified by negative FOMC news, signals a downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential shorts.
News: Top Stories for May 1st, 2024
Global Economic Outlook
Mature economies are stabilizing with a slight growth uptick projected for 2024 and 2025.
Emerging economies maintain stability with growth projections at 4.3% for both 2024 and 2025.
Regional Trends
Asia, including China, anticipates a slowdown, while Latin America expects gradual growth increases.
Inflation and Monetary Policies
Global inflation is expected to decrease, reflecting central bank rate hikes for price stability and growth support.
Geopolitical Impacts
Populist policies and recent elections in the US and EU pose financial policy and market stability challenges.
Transition to a New Monetary Order impacts interest rates, asset values, and lending environments globally.
EU regulatory changes affect financial markets and trading regulations, emphasizing compliance.
Digital Transformation
Focus on digital assets and CBDCs outside the US signals shifts in financial transactions and regulations.
Blockchain technology enhances financial security and transparency, notably in DeFi platforms.
AI integration reshapes financial services, optimizing operations and decision-making processes.
Digital and open banking experiences exponential growth, fostering fintech innovations and collaborations.
RegTech solutions powered by AI help firms manage regulatory obligations efficiently across jurisdictions.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, within a consolidation period likely followed by a breakout. Exercise caution and patience with trades.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5127-30, 5121 (major), 5108
Major Supports: 5083 (major), 5067 (major), 5039 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5136, 5150-55 (major), 5176 (major), 5191 (major)
Major Resistances: 5205-5208 (major), 5230, 5246 (major), 5270-75 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Breakout: Anticipate a breakout from the current 5120-5155 consolidation range. Plan accordingly for both bull and bear breakout scenarios.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5121 for potential long entries. Focus on bids within the current range and knife-catches on major supports if deep flushes occur (5067, 5039).
Short Opportunities: Due to the potential for a strong breakout, approach shorts cautiously. The 5176 and 5191 levels offer shorting opportunities, but with increased risk in the bullish environment. Utilize level-to-level profit-taking.
Risk Management: Implement disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile period.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5120 support within the current consolidation range is crucial for bulls.
Breakout and Retest: Look for an upside breakout from the 5155 resistance area, followed by a successful retest for further confirmation.
Targeting Higher Levels: A breakout could trigger an upward move, focusing on targets at 5176, potentially extending to 5191.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5121 signals a downward move. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown as an entry point for a short position, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 30th, 2024
Market Dynamics and Corporate Earnings
Global Activity: High activity with 1,300 company earnings reports expected; Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting closely watched for rate decision insights.
Sector Highlights: Tech sector leads with major gains by Nvidia and Super Micro; Financials gain on rate cut hopes; Real Estate and Energy sectors lag.
Economic Indicators and Central Bank Decisions
FOMC Meeting: Coming up on 5/1
Jobs Data: Upcoming release expected to influence Fed's future decisions, especially on inflation control.
International Markets
Asian Markets: Mixed responses with Japan's Nikkei up and Shanghai Composite down.
European Central Bank: Anticipated to follow Fed with potential rate cuts amid inflation challenges.
Analysts' Projections and Market Sentiment
Future Rate Cuts: Initially expected in mid-2024, now possibly delayed due to persistent high inflation.
Investor Outlook: Cautiously optimistic but prepared for potential volatility due to uncertain monetary policy outcomes.
Trading Plan for Monday, April 29th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 29th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, following a multi-day rally. However, proceed with caution as a period of price discovery and more complex action is likely after the strong movement.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5127 (major), 5117, 5102 (major), 5089 (major), 5082
Major Supports: 5068-72 (major), 5043 (major), 5034 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5150 (major), 5168-5171 (major), 5185 (major)
Major Resistances: 5206-5208 (major), 5230, 5245 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Anticipated: Expect a period of consolidation and complex price action after the recent surge. Overtrading can lead to losses.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5127 or 5102 as potential long entry points. Prioritize bids within the current range for a cautious approach.
Short Opportunities: Target the 5185 level (resistance of the downtrend channel) for possible short positions. Consider level-to-level profit-taking within the range.
Risk Management: Maintain disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile environment.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5127 or 5102 major supports is crucial for bulls to maintain control.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5150/5168-71 zones for a potential run to the next major target, 5185.
Adding on Strength: In an ultra-bull case, look for bull flagging above 5127 to add exposure in anticipation of an upward move.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5102 could trigger a deeper retracement. True bear case resumes with a break below 5033. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 29th, 2024
Equity Market Overview
Global Performance: S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose over 10% in Q1 2024; European and Asian indices also hit highs.
Sector Trends: AI boom fuels tech sector gains; value stocks participate more in market rallies.
Bond Market Dynamics
Interest Rates: Delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve impacting bond yields.
Performance: High yield bonds outperforming investment-grade due to favorable risk-return amidst volatile rates.
Key Economic Indicators
Inflation and Sentiment: Persistent inflation concerns; consumer sentiment improves slightly.
GDP and Employment: Strong GDP growth and employment figures support bullish equity market sentiment.
Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment
Short-Term: Continued growth expected, but potential for increased volatility.
Long-Term: Earnings growth modest in sectors like IT, significant in "Magnificent 7" companies.
Federal Reserve Policy and Market Outlook
Fed Stance: Maintains rates; cautious on inflation.
Market Impact: S&P 500's performance influenced by rate cut expectations; market may face limited growth post-rate cuts.
NQ Aiming for All Time HighsNQ & ES Are looking Strong, And Respecting Bullish PD Arrays, And April usually having a Rally going into May, Am expecting NQ to hit All time Highs.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control but facing the after-hours earnings event, which could bring sudden volatility.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5067, 5058 (major), 5048
Major Supports: 5036-33 (major), 5010 (major), 4996-5000 (major), 4935-40 (major), 4904-08 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5080-82 (major), 5092 (major), 5108 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5145-50 (major), 5177-81 (major)
Major Resistances: 5222, 5243-46 (major), 5272 (major)
Trading Strategy
Earnings Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable price action and adjust your strategy in real-time.
Trading the Range: Expect price to play within the broad 5036-5126 range. Exercise caution and consider bids/shorts within the range rather than chasing direction.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5067 or 5058 after earnings. Focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5126-29, 5145-50, or the major 5177-81 zone if reached. Given earnings, approach shorts very cautiously.
Profit-Taking: Use level-to-level profit-taking on any position taken, given the increased volatility risk.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the current 5036-33 major support is critical.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5108 zone for a potential run to the next major target areas of 5126-29 and 5145-50.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5036 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 26th, 2024
Economic Environment
March PCE inflation report and its impact on the Fed's policy decisions.
Apollo Global's acquisition of US Silica and implications for the materials sector.
Stock Market Updates
Mixed signals from global markets amidst geopolitical tensions.
Bank of Japan's interest rate policy.
Global Market News
Market response to various corporate earnings and announcements.
Additional Market News
Bond market dynamics and potential interest rate cuts.
Gold's performance and investment implications.
Currency market updates and the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions.
Additional Market Insights and News
Economic Indicators and Outlook
US GDP and Economic Growth: Analysis of the latest GDP report and its implications for growth trends.
Corporate Earnings Outlook: Forecasts for 2024 and sector-specific performance expectations.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Understanding the relationship between inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings.
Labor Market Dynamics: Assessing the health of the labor market and its impact on consumer spending and corporate profitability.
Technological Advancements and Market Shifts
Generative AI and Business Transformation: How is GenAI impacting decision-making and efficiencies in various industries.
Quantum Computing and Competitive Edge: Exploring the potential of quantum computing in various sectors and its implications for competitive advantage.
Sustainable Technology Initiatives: The increasing focus on green technologies and the integration of sustainability with innovation.
Industry Cloud Platforms (ICPs): Examining the adoption of ICPs and their role in accelerating digital transformation.
Reminder: The after-hours earnings events introduce major volatility risk. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
