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One Last Hunt Before It HappensThe time has come. It is the decision time not only for Bitcoin but I believe for alt-coins too. For a trailer of the upcoming ideas and TA: it is probably the time for Bitcoin to decide which direction to take. But before it takes a route to any of these directions, there seems to be a last hunt. It is not a stop-loss hunt but more of a hunt for over-excitement in the market for each direction. If Bitcoin is about to make new highs, there will be a last test of a major support before it goes higher to 11,800-12,000 range. On the other scenario, if it's over for Bitcoin rise, there will be a last test of a major resistance before it drops further to 9,500-10,000 range. Short On the image below, start with the volume bars and see how volume diminishes on each try to make new highs. First it was rejected from 14,000, followed by a rejection from 13,000 and lastly it wasn't able to settle above 12,000. Tops are getting smaller as the volume decreases. This is one alarming signal to be cautious. Long-1 Unless R1 trend line is broken, we don't have strong proof for bull side. However, price was never able to consolidate between R1-R2 trend lines after it breaks above R2 trend line. This is not the case for the last run to 12,000. Price once again got rejected from R1 trend line but this time it was able to find support from R2-trend line. This is also a point to watch out to determine overall position on Bitcoin, rather it is going to be a fall stage on long term or it does act as a strong support to push the prices way above where it is now. So, this might be more consolidation before another bull rally. Key Levels to Watch Out for a Long/Short Position I am not considering going long in near future because of the fact that we broke below the orange triangle and this break will have some consequences in near future. So it is more possible to see a downward movement rather than an upward one. However, this doesn't mean that the price cannot jump to 12,000 range again but the probability of this happening is too low to take the risk of a long trade. To reduce the risk of a possible long position, it is better to wait for price to find support between 10,750-10,900 range. 10,750 range may be used as a stop-loss for this long. But first, I need to see that this range is acting as a support. If I also see a bullish divergence on 15m or 1h chart, I may increase the size of my long position. But if price first tries to break above 12,000 but fails and then comes back to 10,800 range, I will not take the long. If price tries to push 11,800 range and gets weak to break through, I will take a short position, probably with more volume than the long position volume I am considering to take. However, as in the long position case, price increase should happen first. If price first goes to 10,800 range and finds support and then comes to 11,800-12,000. I will not take the short. Three key price levels to watch out for are from MAs. 50MA and 100MA are key levels. I am more incline to say that 50MA will be broken and 100MA will be the main support. These levels correspond to 10,900 and 9,6000 respectively. 3rd key price point is the MA21 on weekly. You can check MA21 on historical data when Bitcoin was on a bull market. Bitcoin tends to find support from MA21 on weekly but it is too early to speculate about this price level which currently sits at 8,400. Long Entry: 10,800-10,900 range is the entry if price directly drops to this level before it tries to break above 12,000 again. Stop-loss is around 10,700 with a target price 11,700. Short Entries: I will have 3 different entries for my short positions. I will keep on shorting Bitcoin until it goes to 12,050 range since I am more keen to believe that Bitcoin drop will stretch way further than this, probably below 11,000. if it goes below 10,000, the retracement may go even down to 8,500 range which seems quite possible to me. 1st entry point: 11,625-11,725 range and this will be the point where I put majority of the volume, 2nd entry point: 11,975, and 3rd entry point: 12,050. I will still keep considerable amount of volume to go short on 12,400 range since this is the range that has to be broken if Bitcoin wants to settle above 12,000. In any case, when price reaches this level, there will be some retracement for me to determine if the short idea is failed and I should close my position. This retracement may find support above 12,000 and this is the reason why I keep majority of my short orders about 12,400 range. In any case, I want to close my short with some profit. Lastly, I have 2 major points to believe that a Bitcoin drop is more probable. First, on the bigger picture, all I see is exhaustion. Exhaustion in the price and more importantly in the volume. Bitcoin can trick you quite easily and we may see huge volume, coming out of nowhere but for now, we don't have such volume to make me believe that last run-ups were getting stronger in that sense. Second and more loose idea is that Goldman Sachs has revealed their expectations on the next Bitcoin move and it shows a 11,390 target price. Their plan worked fine about the price finding support about 11,000 however these kind of news about the market, I believe, creates more bias towards the opposite direction. I am more tend to take the opposite direction than what these guys are taking/telling you that they took. Goldman Sachs news: www.coindesk.com Good luck on your trades!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by UnknownUnicorn4649511
140% Return in One Week! Am I a Wizard? In this post, I talk about what happened in Bitcoin and how we positioned ourselves, upcoming Bitcoin stages, and also define some conditions for the alt-season and speculate an idea for the near future. Last Week: Firstly, I am not a wizard but we did actually make 140% return in last week. Here's a short reminder of how we've done it and this is probably the last time we remember these moments because the upcoming phase will be different. Difference mostly stems from the increasing volume. It is still healthy to have a reminder of the last week's patterns to be able to clearly spot the changes in the market. Underlying reason for my upcoming ideas is that I am expecting a retracement phase. If the price has already found its support to break above 12,000-12,100, all the upcoming ideas lose its validity. First signal that caused me to turn bullish from bearish was price breaking above 10,900 and by doing so, it break through the mid-level of the descending/blue trend line, cherry trend line. I also defined the last point for bears to hold on was the same range there were no prominent daily or weekly resistance points after. It was all clear up to 11,500. Price had a rest after breaking key resistance levels and I positioned my orders on the retracement of this rest. All my trades have x10 leverage. Below are the trades I took: Buy-1@10,835 and Buy-2@10,645 Sell-1@10,980 (25% return) Sell-2@11,405 (65% return) 45% average return We had an average of 45% return from these trades however it could be better. Problem was not the entry points but I had early exits. My first mistake was to think that golden trend line will be the first point to be tested but price just went through it. However we were still able to go for another long on the S/R flip of the golden trend-line. But I have to admit that I wasn't brave enough to put more volume on this trade and kept it mid-volume. But I was lucky enough to be at sleep when the price topped above 12,000 and it was already hovering around 12,250 when I woke up. What I saw was that the all trend-lines have been broken, all bears were down however we were further away from the broken trade-channel tops. Price seemed to having an overshoot since the broken levels have never been tested as support levels. All these signals were traded as below: Buy@11,620 Sell@12,280 (56% return) But it was too risky to open a short position above 12,000. Both the bar amplitude and the volume looked strong when price broke above the key resistance levels. At this point, price had a $1000 retracement that made me believe that there is a retracement phase upcoming. As the price went even below the golden trend line, we flipped that former support into a resistance and I had a short entry at 11,690. I was also expecting the price to jump above 12,000 area and also make a lower high from the previous high (12,340). I had 2 Fibonacci signals to believe in that. Also remember that I anchor my Fibonacci extremes mostly on big evens because as I also mentioned, this is mostly how algorithms work, on big evens. 1st reason: Price retraced down to 0.786 level of the Fibonacci retracement between 11,000-12,000. I took that as an exhaustion in the current run. 2nd reason: It had support from 0.382 of the Fibonacci level with the anchors at 10,000 and 12,000. Finding support from this level indicates a strong support for the last run and the possibility of price making new highs is still in play. So I closed my short position at 11,580 with 9% return. Sell@11,690 Buy@11,580 (10% return) Where to short? To reduce the risk of the trade, again, I applied Fibonacci retracement for the last drop and had my second attempt to short at 12,025, 0.786 level. Now, I just closed it at 11,710. Stop-loss was the previous high at 12,340. (Actually not exactly this point but within the retracement of the last movement.) Sell@12,025 Buy@11,710 (26% return) This Week: I think we are heading through below 14,000 . Even market turns bearish, price first has to test 14,000 before picking a direction. It is the Daily & Weekly & Monthly resistance. I don't believe there is stronger resistance than 14,000 resistance. It is THE resistance. The reason for making another top at 14,000 is that price has already broken above both ascending/colored trade channel and descending/blue trade channel. Next move possibly retest higher levels than previous high ,12,300. 13,000 also provides a strong resistance so if I go long, this will be the first level to watch out. 3 red circles on the top-left of the screen shows why on my previous post I told you not to trade. After breaking above a trade channel, price tends to generate false signals to liquidate traders before making new highs. I have 4 entry points first one is the grey range but I buy it for a short term trade. Entry range-1 is a key level, it is the cherry range. I consider having half of my long position at this point. I believe second and third entry ranges still provides profitable entry points but if the price drop extends to these levels, I will take that as a weakening of the bullish momentum. For the exact placement of the entry orders, you can check the Fibonacci levels on the image below. 0.5 level is in the similar levels with the cherry-range, 11,000. 0.786 level is around 10,400. I don't pick 0.618 as a support because I think if price drop extends to 0.618 with considerable bearish momentum, it is quite possible to broke below 0.618, to 0.786. This Fibonacci level corresponds to the blue range. Last point of support is the black range. This is the bottom of the ascending/colored channel, 10,300. If price goes below this point, it also indicates strong bearish pressure on the long term. So, last entry range is also the stop-loss point. I don't think having a short position until 14,000. Alt-Season Alt-season needs a confirmation. A confirmation that Bitcoin is going for a new ATH. If you check the chart on daily, weekly, and monthly there is one point distinguishes from all other points, 13,900. This is the point to be broken to announce an alt-season. On my wildest guess, I am expecting Bitcoin to retest this level and go for a retracement. If there is indeed an alt-season incoming and Bitcoin is actually going for ATH, alt-season may just start when Bitcoin is on the retracement phase. So watch out for how strong is the movement when it reaches 13,900 and how alts react to it. But as I said, these are all speculations.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by UnknownUnicorn4649511
Don't Do It! You Are Wrong - Key Levels to Watch Out For I guess you are about to witness many traders saying that the bull market is over or the bulls have just begun. I think it is too soon to say any of these and that's why whatever the direction is that you are positioning yourself, you are possibly wrong. I am not saying your trade will be a loser but what I am saying is that each direction seems improbable but not impossible. It's a bit messy. These are the times that hurt my equity the most. We are at the extreme of a trade-channel and price broke above the whole channel but went back in. Issue with being close to channel extremes is that these are the times when the market generates too many false signals. Check the image below. You can clearly see the false break-down of the black trend- line which also happens to be the bottom extreme of the same trade-channel, indicated with a black circle at the bottom. Since all the trend-lines within the ascending/colored trade channel have been broken, all these lines lost their legitimacy/credibility but not entirely. This is the main reason of the false signals. There are too many possibilities at this point and there are 3 major questions that we cannot entirely answer. 1) Is BTC going for new highs? (Maybe) It may/should make new highs since we broke above the current trade-channel by which breaking through 12,000. The reason that I don't believe it is a good idea to think that it is about to make new highs in near future is that it is hard to position a long trade at this point mostly because stop-loss placement would be too further away. Right now, it just dropped down below 11,400. In near future, this drop may extend further down to 11,050-11,150 range. I am considering to put on a long position from both these price levels. Target price is 11,500-11,600 range. Any long position should be kept in short-term because there is the possibility that the bull market might be over or this is the beginning of a retracement. 2) Is it over? (Maybe) Price is at the intersection point of 2 crucial trade-channels. Price level on its highest point is another crucial level that is the Daily & Weekly & Monthly resistance points. Price got rejected from both. If the last 12,300 top was indeed a false break-out, it might be just over. However, unless price goes below 10,000 again, bulls are in control. If price breaks below 11,000 and fails to shoot back above 11,000, that's alarming but a neutral bearish signal. 3) Is this a retracement? (Most probably) In a week of green candles it is hard to deny that the market is dominantly bullish. It doesn't matter that much if we couldn't remain above 12,000 or price just had a $1000 retracement. I am saying that again, unless price goes below 10,000 again, bulls are in control. So, it is too early to say that the bull market is over and this is probably a retracement before attempting to go above 12,000 again. In overal: Most possibly we are in a retracement phase and whatever the position you take (long/short), it is safer to keep the trade open not for too long and keep it as intraday trade. Any long term trade at this point may hurt too much if the bull market is over or if price shoots back up. I prefer to use RSI to seek for any exhaustion on retracement phases, 1h and 15m RSIs and 5m-RSI to pick the exact point to enter the trade. Possible trade opportunities: Short Idea: Golden line is now a resistance again. If the price attempts to go above this line again and fails, 11,700 levels provide a fine entry for a short position. I am also expecting the price to make a quick attempt to break above 12,000-12,050 range with low volume. Volume is the key indicator for this level. I'd like to see the volume bar to be lower than the 4H volume bars since 5th of August. If things reveal itself the way I think, around 12,000 will be my second entry for the short. Long Idea: As I mentioned, in retracement phases, RSI becomes extremely useful to pick entry points. Top grey line is above 11,150, mid-grey line is above 11,050 and bottom grey line is just above 10,900 and finally cherry trend-line indicates 10,750 range. I prefer to pick the latter 2 for long entries. Some from 10,900 and the remaining from 10,750 (with a 50-50% volume distribution on each order). Stop-loss is around 10,675. Target price may extend up to the golden line, 11,700 however this may change depending on the market's behavior by the time. If the RSI signals some exhaustion/bullish divergence around the other grey lines, I may enter a long position. If I do, I will keep the post updated. At the time being, it is hard to determine where the retracement ends but my most possible guess for now is the blue line that is the mid-level of the descending/blue trade channel, around 10,400. But before it does reach to this range, I think there is going to be a prior bounce ($500-600 bounce) from one of the price levels mentioned in the long idea. Good luck on your trades!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by UnknownUnicorn4649511
Precise German Engineering - Finding the Perfect Position This is preciseness at its best. This is nearly poetry. On the previous versions of the colored trade channel, I didn't precisely placed it on the previous top, indicated with a green circle on the left of the screen. Now look at 4th of August. Look how perfectly the price movements fit. Look how price finds support from the cherry line as it fails to reach the grey line. Look how price just shoots more than $600 once the price exceeds the grey line. Look how nicely it breaks above the golden line and comes back and finds support before topping at red line. Look how perfectly it shows you the point where the price tops. Reason for me talking cocky is not to act like a cock, maybe a little, but to shout you the fact that you have to stop using tens of indicators to find out what is next. I am getting dizzy while looking at the charts that people are sharing. Let me take it one step further and tell you that learning/applying too much indicators is the primary reason on your failures. Nearly all indicators are based on price and volume and works by making two simple information more complicated than it is to generate signal. It's the structure what matters. It is the price itself. Zoom out and pick closing and opening prices. Draw trend-lines and keep them parallel. Create a trade channel and see how the price acts by the time it touches the line. Start from the left. 1-Black circle: Price tries to break above a level and the level is rising because each time a peak is reached, it is always higher than the previous high. 2- Black circle: Price did not even stay near the line but was only able to put a wick on a point. 3-Black circle: Once the price comes back to a level it never came down to this level but went up to 14,000. Now you have all you need to make huge profits from your trades. Just draw a line connecting these 3 points and create copies of it. Where to put these copies? 2 key places: 1-Place them on points where once the price touches that point the price reverses and at least starts a retracement for the current trend. 2- As in the case for the 1st black circle, find points where price makes couple of attempts to break above/below and once that point is broken, price makes new highs/lows but do not retraces right after. Even if it retraces, newly broken resistance point should now act as a support before making new highs or shooting a big green/red bar. Do you need a precise entry point? These lines and high time frame W/D/4H opening/closing prices are as precise as it can get. Do you want a high R for your trades or a tight stop-loss, trade close to trend-lines. Do you want to know about the current trend of the market. Check the direction of the channel. Check where the price is between these channel lines. All the information you need is already there. Too many indicators only confuses you. Keep it simple. Simplicity helps you to execute your trades with less doubt. Being afraid of executing a trading strategy certainly leads listening other's opinion. What does it have to do with execution? Trading is all about execution but nothing else. So where BTC is heading now and where to position our trades? I have 3 entry points and distribution of the volume to put on is indicated next to these lines. 25% is around 11,525, 35% is around 11,413, and finally last long order is placed around 11,250 with 40% of the total volume on long positions. Grey line is the stop-loss. I will explain why I picked my entry points depending on Fibonacci levels but not trading on the grey line. First I have to explain how choose anchor points for the Fibonacci retracement. As everybody does, I choose previous low and high points for the Fibonacci range but the exact points to anchor the Fibonacci, that I do differently. Everybody has a different edge. This difference does not apply to trading bots and algorithms like big evens. That's why I don't care about the wicks or the candle body. I only choose the bottom range to anchor but the exact point is a big even where the price hovered around or gets rejected. I used the latter reason to pick the top of the Fibonacci retracement. Even the price wasn't able to touch 12,000, it is the big even that the price is rejected. That's how algorithms work. That's how I picked my entry points, from the Fibonacci levels 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786. Here is the reason why I don't use the grey line as the entry but as the stop-loss point. Trade-channel between the golden and grey lines has already broken. If the price is going to break 12,000 resistance and make new highs, price has nothing to do with the trade-channel on downstairs. It has to remain inside red-golden line channel to no show weakness. However, there is one thing that I encountered a lot as the price comes to the extremes of a trade-channel, just like now. It breaks below the top trade-channel (between the red and golden lines) and takes support from a major point inside the channel but does not retrace down to bottom of the channel, in this case it is the grey line. Fibonacci retracement tool is how I define those major levels. If the price comes down to the grey line, I will consider that as a neutral weakening signal and may close my long positions below 12,000. Target price points for this trade are 13,000 (-1 level of the Fibonacci retracement), 13,650 (Daily & Weekly & Monthly resistance), and finally 16,225 (Weekly resistance). For the entry points mentioned above, average entry is around 11,380 and stop-loss is around 11,150. 11,618 is also a quite possible point for price to bounce before breaking 12,000. 11,618 is both 0.382 level of the Fibonacci retracement and also on the golden trend-line. I may enter a low volume long position at this point. There sure be a bounce will happen at this point but this will be a short-term trade if I see that the price movement is weak to go for 12,000. Good luck on your trades!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by UnknownUnicorn4649511
7
[BTC]: Catch the last train before it takes off!As you can see we had a double bottom. TA wise: - we had strong MA crosses on the 8h timeframe (check flags) - there were lower highs (few dead cat bounces) after this local hype we had in previous months News: - Facebook's Lybra currency was an interesting catalyst in both ways - Trump tweeting about crypto got some more PR into the crypto field - Lybra might not ever see the daylight might have been shocking for some weak hands However, I firmly believe this is still whales playground where they know how to use the news and key points. It's been really interesting to see the push after the first double bottom low to 2nd dead cat high that was clearly made by big players in less than an hour! Since it's hard to play against them, it might be better to join them or even better to read them. What I read from presented zoom out graph (1day timeframe) is that we have reached the bottom. I already talked about a possible falling knife, but it would have to be some serious FUD for the cut to happen, with a strong bounce from there expected. Considering that this is less probable, I believe there is the last train that you can catch these days. As you can see from the graph fast MACD made a nice cross 2 days ago which was the buy signal, where CCI was even faster and could be used by the ones that want to play riskier. If your view is clear enough you can spot the hidden divergences on the first double bottom peak down and convergences now on the second one. Thus, I believe we won't reach 8500$ level everybody is expecting unless crazily bad news happens. Probably even not 9000$ level. The support line is clearly on the double bottom and previous peak level (around 9100). I have put short term and midterm targets for shorter time frame traders, but the real deal for the majority here is probably to buy and hold until the next hype happens. I'm 90% sure it will. Nothing in life is 100% but you have to play the odds when they are in your favor. Remember, it's just an idea. Not investing advice. ;) Take care!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Samoto
[Fibbonacci]: How to get better BTC gains than other traders!In this post, I will probably show you the most time-efficient way to maximize your gains in the BTC bull market. As you can see graphs moved before, move today and will most probably move in the future in similar waves with strong pushes, followed by consolidation phases. If you want to maximize your profits you can sell the tops and buy the dips. There is a wonderful tool to help you with that! Take some time to understand it and you probably won't be sorry. Here are some tips: 1. The previous top can show you where approximately the next top will be! a) 310$ top in the previous bubble cycle shows you where the next (s)top will be - 1.618 Fibbo level is the one that becomes the real boundary on the next run (507$ blue line) - it might be smart to put sell orders around that level (you can read where exactly to put the order in the text bellow) b) 5531$ top enabled similar projection in the bubble cycle we have started this year! - 1.619 Fibbo level shows 8949$ as top (we actually reached 9096 with spike) - there was a similar double top play as we had it before c) The last wave top can also be projected from the previous top - 1.618 Fibbo from the local 2016 double top (467$) took us to 755$ projection (we actually reached 778 on a spike) - 1.618 Fibbo from the local 2019 double top (8.5k) took us to 14191$ projection (we actually reached 13880 on a spike) 2. Supports and resistances from before are the fine tunning tool you may want to use! a) As you can see there are always some supports around 1.6 Fibbo level from the previous price movement from the bubble pop. Using the closest one just bellow 1.6 Fibbo can be a smart way to go. b) Since the spikes are fast you may want to set automatic order in order to maximize your gains. c) Ex. in 2016 739$ sell order would work nicely if you were not greedy. Similarly in 2019 13790$ sell order would do the same and you would be selling the position nearly perfectly. 3. Buying the dip can be a bit more tricky! a) As you can see a spike down usually touches the previous high but doesn't stay there for a long time b) Counting on the touch might be tricky so it might be smarter to find the support line, where you already get a good price and accumulate BTC c) You can wait for support to get clear and buy the majority of stake on that level and maybe go for the best possible (minority) position with automatic buy order close to the previous top (falling knife spike down) With this strategy, you use the least amount of time and you will most probably beat 90% of traders and also the hodlers. Hope this helps and we all know it's not financial advice. It's just an idea. ;-) Work smart, not hard!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Samoto
12
Litecoin - possible entry approaching - timingQuick idea - Using the fibonacci time zone tool and placing the first two points on the start of an upward wave and on the end of the low, we can see how perfectly the other vertical lines have lined up with other future moves. The number 13 vertical line is fast approaching, which may indicate the start of the next move. A great wait and see for a potential 8%+ long. Have a stoploss just in case it breaks down. It looks positive from my opinion with an oversold rsi on the 4h and potential macd crossing over, and that it has slowed down and gone sideways on this level of support. I had to share just because how perfect the time zone tool has played out on this application. Best of luck. Feel free to share ideas below.
Long
by System791
ZIL/BTC -> Potential Entry Point (Novice Analysis)If you haven't gotten into a position on $ZIL yet now could potentially be a good time to do so. 1W volume influx is incredible. Price has been ranging well in this Modified Schiff Pitchfork and it seems likely it will continue doing so. Short term resistance at ~314 sats has been touched multiple times making it weaker and a mid term target would be previous ATL at 347 sats. Long term hold for 497 sats at the next major resistance. An entry between 240-250 sats looks ideal for this next move. Stop at 220 sats, just below the previous S/R flip
Long
by Hrempe
What is "Price Action"? What about indicators?There is no one clear definition of price action. It can be as simple as "Every tick on any given chart, of any given market." However this definition is too broad and does not adequately describe the term. A better definition is "The collective result of buyers and sellers entering the market for any logical reason, which together create reoccurring patterns that can be analyzed and capitalized." Price action is based on humans behaving rationally, logically, and similarly in similar situations over time, and is the cumulative effect of institutional trading. It has been, and always will remain fundamentally unchanged. If you compare a chart from 100 years ago (such as the crash of 1929) with one of today with the time scales removed, you will not be able to tell the difference between the two. It does not matter if you compare a yearly, monthly, daily, or even 1 minute chart with any other chart of a different time frame. Price action appears the same and works the same in every market, and on every time frame. The institutions cannot hide what they are doing; price action is their foot print. Price action can be used to invest long term, or day trade any market. It allows a trader or investor to identify opportunities without the use of any indicators. In fact, all indicators are a derivative of price action in one form or another. Interestingly, the patterns which repeat as well as trend tendencies can be observed on different charts, even outside of markets. Can you tell a difference between these two charts? The first is a daily chart of CSX. The second is a 5 minute chart of the MES (micro s&p). All markets and charts look the same, and behave similarly. Once you understand the information within, you can understand what the institutions are doing at any given time.
TSX:ACB
by tradersmentality