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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

NZDCAD Awaits Triangle Breakout Momentum To Start Trending!The main chart shows the monthly TF of NZDCAD pair from which it is visible that the pair is confined in a triangle. The red horizontal lines represents the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Should the triangle break (the monthly candle closing outside the triangle) we could potentially see the price target those red horizontal levels! My view on this pair is neutral, which means the break to either side is a possibility. The trade war conflict i feel will likely decide the fate of this pair. This just represents the analysis of mine on this pair. shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post
by FX618Analysis
BLACK GOLD Could Slump To 55.00 If the CHANNEL Breaks!The main chart shows the daily timeframe perspective of the black gold (WTI) in which it can be seen that the price has been confined in a channel respected on multiple occasions! The red horizontal lines represent the nearby support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Technically should the channel break (the daily candle closing convincingly below the daily 50 EMA and the channel) we could see the price target the next support in sight at 55.00 level. However have a look at the attached image above, where the price action is based on the weekly TF. Often, the 50 EMA act as a dynamic support and resistance. Here we see the weekly 50 EMA which could potentially prevent the price hitting the 55.00 level. So for this trade scenario to be valid we not only need to see the channel and the daily 50 EMA break but also the weekly candle closing below the weekly 50 EMA! Should all this criteria meet we will wait for the price to retrace slightly before making a SHORT entry to target 55.00 level Fundamental factors for the black gold are mixed in my perspective. Many countries are trying their best to limit their output but on the flip side with the trade war fears, the global slowdown would likely affect the crude's demands. So in a nutshell until a trade deal is reached we could see the WTI slip to 55.00 before it starts to rebound again higher in the future. This just represents my analysis of this pair, shall the trade criteria meet in the future i will post the details in a new post.
TVC:USOILShort
by FX618Analysis
HOW TO TRADE WITH EMA STRATEGYExponential Moving Average Strategy (Trading Rules – Sell Trade) Our exponential moving average strategy is comprised of two elements. The first degree to capture a new trend is to use two exponential moving averages as an entry filter. By using one moving average with a longer period and one with a shorter period, we automate the strategy. This removes any form of subjectivity from our trading process. Step #1: Plot on your chart the 20 and 50 EMA The first step is to properly set up our charts with the right moving averages. We can identify the EMA crossover at the later stage. The exponential moving average strategy uses the 20 and 50 periods EMA. Most standard trading platforms come with default moving average indicators. It should not be a problem to locate the EMA either on your MT4 platform or Tradingview. Step #2: Wait for the EMA crossover and for the price to trade below the 20 and 50 EMA. The second rule of this moving average strategy is the need for the price to trade below both 20 and 50 EMA. Secondly, we need to wait for the EMA crossover, which will add weight to the bullish case. We refer to the EMA crossover for a sell trade when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA. By looking at the EMA crossover, we create an automatic buy and sell signals. Since the market is prone to false breakouts, we need more evidence than a simple EMA crossover. At this stage, we don’t know if the bearish sentiment is strong enough to push the price further after we sell to make a profit. To avoid the false breakout, we added a new confluence to support our view. This brings us to the next step of the strategy. Step #3: Wait for the zone between 20 and 50 EMA to be tested once on a sell trade (twice on a buy trade) then look for selling opportunities. The conviction behind this moving average strategy relies on multiple factors. After the EMA crossover happened, we need to exercise more patience. We will wait for one successive and successful retest of the zone between the 20 and 50 EMA on a sell order but twp retests on a buy order. The two successful retests of the zone between 20 and 50 EMA give the market enough time to develop a trend on a buy order. However, because the market goes down much faster, we sell on the 1st retest of the zone between 20 and 50. After the EMA crossover happened. . Never forget that no price is too high to buy in trading. And no price is too low to sell. Note* When we refer to the “zone between 20 and 50EMA,” we actually don’t mean that the price needs to trade in the space between the two moving averages. We just wanted to cover the whole price spectrum between the two EMAs. This is because the price will only briefly touch the shorter moving average (20-EMA). But this is still a successful retest. Now, we still need to define where exactly we are going to buy. This brings us to the next step of the strategy. Step #4: Sell at the market when we retest the zone between 20 and 50 EMA for the third time. If the price successfully retests the zone between 20 and 50 EMA for the third time, we go ahead and sell at the market price. We now have enough evidence that the bearish momentum is strong to continue pushing this market lower. Now, we still need to define where to place our protective stop loss and where to take profits. This brings us to the next step of the strategy. Step #5: Place the protective Stop Los 20 pips above the 50 EMA After the EMA crossover happened, and after we had two successive retests, we know the trend is down. As long as we trade below both exponential moving averages the trend remains intact. In this regard, we place our protective stop loss 20 pips above the 50 EMA. We added a buffer of 20 pips because we understand we’re not living in a perfect world. The market is prone to do false breakouts. Step #6: You pick your own TP strategy or Take Profit once we break and close above the 50-EMA If we waited for the EMA crossover to happen on the other side, we would have given back some of the potential profits. We need to consider the fact that the exponential moving averages are a lagging indicator. The exponential moving average formula used to plot our EMAs allow us to still take profits right at the time the market is about to reverse. Note** The above was an example of a SELL trade. Use the same rules – but in reverse – for a BUY trade. However, because the market goes down much faster, we sell on the 1st retest of the zone between 20 and 50. After the EMA crossover happened. The exponential moving average strategy is a classic example of how to construct a simple EMA crossover system. With this exponential moving average system, we’re not trying to predict the market. But rather to react to the current market condition which is a much better way to trade the market. The advantage of our trading strategy stands in the exponential moving average formula. It plots a much smoother EMA that gives better entries and exits.
Short
by Tradingstrategyguides
6
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500. However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTCUSD | Bump & Run / 50 Week MA / EMA Ribbon BreakoutBtc looks to be having a bump and run pattern playing out. It also just had its first weekly candle close above the EMA ribbon which has signalled the end of the bear market in the last two crashes. On top of both of those, the 50 week MA line could be becoming support. Although there are some very bullish indications, there are also bearish divergences on the RSI and the NVT and stoch RSI seem to indicate a pullback. There is strong evidence to go either way. I think we will carry out the bump and run to test the resistance zone around 6200ish and then pull back without breaking the zone. Hopefully, the RSI and NVT are able to get themselves in position to allow for a break of the zone on the next test to solidify the case that we have actually begun the bull market. I am no financial advisor and don't like to post publicly, but would love to hear some opinions to get a feel of what the sentiment is like in the market. Thoughts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by K3vinmf44
5
AUDJPY Channel Continuation! Price Likely To HIT 74.500 Level Have a look at the main chart of the weekly TF! Here we can see that the price has been confined in a downward channel. The nearby green horizontal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the Monthly charts. Shall the current ascending trendline inside the channel break, we could see the selling pressure build up towards the crucial support level at 74.500! For the current consolidation ascending trendline inside the channel to break, it would be favorable for the weekly candle to break convincingly after which a slight retracement is required before going SHORT on this pair! There is one more catch to this trade. have a look at the attached image above which shows the monthly TF picture of this pair confined in a long term triangle which has been respected on numerous occasions. So therefore we not only await for the weekly candle to close below the trendline but most importantly we must see the monthly candle close outside this triangle. If this all criteria are met, its an excellent chance to go SHORT on this pair! This just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair at the moment. shall the trade criteria be met i will post the details in a new post. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDJPY Likely To Drop Towards 69.000 IF the Support Breaks Looking at the chart, the monthly TF gives an overall technical perspective to where this pair might be headed. the three green lines are concrete support and resistance levels traced from the monthly charts. Shall the current or future candle (Monthly candle) close below the 73.000 level (green line support) we can confirm that the triangle has been breached and the price would likely fall towards 69.000 level thereafter. Fundamentally, the NZD is expected to loose most of its value this year as the economy is not doing too well plus the currency is highly overvalued against the USD too. This just represents my outlook on this pair and its not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in a new post. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Apple Long/BUY-Hi all, I thought I was marking up a currency pair but didn't realize this whole time I was marking up Apple . . -Anyways, might as well post up my thoughts on the stock. - We have a great aggressive uptrend going on! -EMA also indicating an uptrend on the 50 and 200 EMA but downtrend on the 15 EMA but that may bounce as we are reaching a resistance that is now a support where I believe price will bounce from and continue to push up to a higher high! We are also approaching an area where price has rejected before in the past so that is something we can probably put a short duration of a sell position! -Let's get some pip$ on Monday!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by UnknownUnicorn3707912
EURCHF Needs to Break WEEKLY 50 EMA To Target 1.11500 !With the H&S Pattern completed sometime ago, this pair Hit the support that lied in the region of 1.11500, from there onwards it started a rally that went back and tested the neckline of the H&S pattern. With the eurozone economy slowing down, we can expect the price to drop again towards the lower end of the range. To do this, the weekly candle must breach the weekly 50 EMA and close below it. After that we have enough confirmation that the price is likely headed back southwards.
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURJPY (CROSS) Awaits Channel Or Trendline Breakout On Weekly TFThe CROSS (EURJPY) is currently confined in a descending channel on weekly timeframe that has been respected on numerous occasions and there also happens to be an ascending trendline that seems to be holding this pair. Have a look at the main chart of weekly timeframe to observe these two scenarios! Now thats the technical picture which is suggesting the price could breakout anywhere be it upwards by breaking the channel or downwards by breaking the trendline. The fundamental picture is a tricky one to predict where this pair might trend but odds are slightly with the break to the downside, as the slowdown in EUROPE continues and the SAFEHAVEN yen demand will be there against the EUR! So to trade this pair, its advisable to wait for the weekly candle to convincingly close outside the descending channel or beneath the trendline to confirm a breakout. The red line drawn on the main chart represent the nearby target levels if the price breakouts from either side! This is just the current outlook on this pair and shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post. Hope you find this analysis useful, if you do please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want more future SWING trade analysis and alerts. cheers
by FX618Analysis
EURAUD Confined In Triangle. Awaits Breakout Momentum!The main chart shows the price is confined inside a triangle and a breakout to either side might occur. The red lines are concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the Monthly charts. Should the breakout occur, we can expect the price to test either side of the red lines. Fundamentally the AUD would appreciate against the EUR due to trade deal almost being sorted out and EURZONE growth deteriorating further. But it remains to be seen what happens. Currently i am already LONG on AUDUSD (have a look at the attached link below) Therefore i can not take this pair SHORT OR LONG as the active trade of AUDUSD has slight strong correlation with EURAUD. Always manage your risks well. If you prefer to trade this pair please do so at your own risk but its suggested to trade once the triangle has been breached. Hope you found the analysis useful, if so please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me for future updates and posts. cheers
by FX618Analysis
OIL Rally Could Break USDCAD Channel & Target 1.29000!With broad USD strength evident as the US-SINO Trade deal nears, we might see OIL prices gain strength as well as global slowdown fears slowly subside. Moreover, OPEC and The US controlling the production of OIL by imposing sanctions and other measures we could see the demand for OIL increase soon. Here in the main chart, we could see the price on the weekly chart confined in an ascending channel supported by the weekly 50 EMA as dynamic support. Should the weekly candle close below the weekly 50 EMA and breach the lower end of the channel we could see the price head for the next support that lies in the region of 1.29000 supported by another ascending trendline! Should the criteria meet, i will post the trade details in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this pair. If you find the analysis useful please drop a LIKE and FOLLOW me for future posts. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
YELLOW METAL Might Break The Neckline Of H&S Amid RISK ON MarketMarkets are in the RISK ON mood which usually puts pressure on safe assets and currencies including the yellow metal. Here we see a HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern on the verge of completion! The neckline will likely be broken soon enough as the risk ON markets dominates the appetite of the investors. Once the neckline gets broken we should see the selling pressure building up towards the next ascending trendline support that lies in the region of 1260.00 level. I am already short on this pair with my entry being at 1295.000 level , TP at 1267 & SL at 1321.00 My trade that is short has been active since one month and once the neckline breaks we can expect the TP levels to be reaching soon enough. This is just an outlook behind the current yellow metal state and where its heading, if you want to enter i suggest you do that at your own risk as the price has drifted away from our entry level and the RISK TO REWARD RATIO will NOT be 1:1 in this case. Nonetheless its a very high probability setup both technically and fundamentally. If you like my analysis please drop me a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more future analysis. cheers and thanks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
EURUSD H & S Pattern to Continue after recovery towards 1.14500!HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WAS ALREADY COMPLETED SOME MONTHS AGO ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS! Since then the price has been dropping towards the target and the next support that lies in the region of 1.1000. At the moment the EUR Is too oversold which is also evident on the RSI of daily charts (bullish divergence), The SPOT would likely recover some of its losses until the weekly 50 EMA where the price has been rejected on more than two occasions! It will be more beneficial for the bears to wait until the price hits 1.14500 level where the weekly 50 EMA lies. Once the price HITS it will a good level to execute a SHORT trade with target being 1.09000 level and STOP LOSS set at 1:1 risk to reward ratio. For the BULLS the short term trade setup should target the 1.14500 after where its suggested to close the trade as the selling pressure would resume massively towards the 1.09000 target! Fundamentals are also on bears side as the EU (italy) is on the verge of recession and amid slowing eurozone economy might not help the EUR at all. As for the USD, the trade deal is nearly complete which would initiate the risk ON appetite in the market making the demand for the greenback high. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS AND ITS NOT A TRADE SIGNAL FROM ME. ANY DECISION IS SOLELY BASED ON YOUR FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL JUDGEMENT OF THE MARKET. I AM A BEAR ON THIS TRADE AND ONCE THE WEEKLY 50 EMA IS REACHED I WILL PLACE A SHORT TRADE. I WILL UPDATE THE CRITERIA FOR TRADE ENTRY IN A NEW POST. PLEASE LEAVE A LIKE FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND FOLLOW ME IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN MY IDEAS. THANK YOU
Short
by FX618Analysis