Elliottwaveretracement
Elliot Wave Analysis USD/JPY Corrective Wave Structure ExplainedWatch as I explain some basic Elliot Wave Concepts of Corrective Formations and anticipating the next waves. I Also breaks down the idea of an IF-Then-Thought-Process using Elliot Wave and reacting to price.
WHITHER DJIA?! MOON SHOT OR FISH TANK!?! COMPARE TO MAY CHANNEL After Tuesday's short squeeze a lot of us got stopped out and irritated bears are wondering; "WTH is it DOING?!"
After I calmed down a bit, licked my wounds and smoothed out my fur, took a hard look at the chart. Then shorted again today.
Pattern now unfolding looks a heckofalot like May's behavior after the runup three months back. Now Tues looks like a BullTrap and yet another fakeout squeeze.
Notice the same 'double-top' action, short-squeeze after first downtrend fakeout, then a descending triangle leading to the sheer drop.
Significantly, May's pullback was 0.50 Fibo only and did not test the channel bottom. That came later, in the June Swoon.
Elliot wave theory 'alternating wave hypothesis' suggests that a shallow wave is followed by a deep strong trough, in turn by a shallow wave.
Maybe bullhockey, but after the strong cup-and-handle breakout in July I wouldn't bet on a really steep/deep decline. Could happen but...?! Possibly a .382 Fibo = 25020.
Strong support now at the former resistance level could springboard the index up to next bullish impulse, note horizontal arrow > support tested, retested in cuphandle.
If S1 breaks: S2 at 24844 (Fibo 0.50); S3 at 24668 (Fibo 0.618; tested in the cup); S4 at 24418 (Fibo 0.786, bottom of the cup), which lands squarely on the lower trendline.
Notice: Height of triangle in May = depth of drop; if we get that again in August, Dow might retrace to 0.382 Fibo and bounce. Don't get squeezed- watch it real close...
Also noteworthy: one page contributor has observed the market highs/lows have coincided with Moon phases - high 24585 was at Full Moon 07/26/18; look for a low around the New Moon on Friday, 10 August, eh?! Maybe silly but there it is...
Test of bottom trendline would be a long drop, and seems unlikely now, but the damned thing has already done the impossible, so don't count it out.
Other similarities suggesting imminent corrective wave: 'exhaustion gap' up on Tues followed by rapid retracement; a 'shooting star' Weds attempt to recover to Tues HOD but fell short at 25480, rejection leading to strong selloff end of day; low volume on up days, increasing volume on down days; RSI: Neutral. August is tied for weakest month of year with October. BUT August is also often a 'pivot month' in which the trend reverses. SO; whither Dow? Maybe a little off the top please, then resume the Moon shot...
Good luck traders!
> "Going to the Moon... after a brief detour through Pandemonium and Nether Regions"
OIL Elliott Wave Analysis: Extending to the DownsideHello Traders,
Short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the bounce to $70.44 high ended blue wave (2). The internals of that bounce took place as Elliott wave double correction where red wave W ended in 3 swings at $69.92. From there, the pullback to $68.26 completed the red wave X in 3 swings. Then a bounce higher to $70.44 high ended red wave Y in another 3 swings & also completed blue wave (2).
Down from there, the decline is taking place as Elliott wave impulse within blue wave (3) lower with the sub-division of 5 waves structure in red wave 1, 3 & 5. The initial decline from $70.44 high to $66.92 low ended red wave 1. The lesser degree cycles within that decline also unfolded in 5 waves structure & ended black wave ((i)) at $69.91. Black wave ((ii)) ended at $70.22, Black wave ((iii)) ended at $67.31 low, black wave ((iv)) bounce ended at $68.15 and black wave ((v)) of red 1 ended at $66.92 low. Above from there, the bounce to $69.92 high ended red wave 2.
The internals of red wave 2 unfolded in 3 swings as Elliott wave zigzag correction where black wave ((a)) ended in 5 waves at $69.36. Black wave ((b)) ended at $67.87 low and the bounce to $69.92 high ended black wave ((c)) of 2. Down from there, red wave 3 remain in progress in another 5 waves and as far as bounces fail below $69.92 high and more importantly the pivot from $70.45 high stays intact instrument is expected to see more downside. We don’t like buying it as the right side tag is lower.
IYR Elliott Wave Analysis: Pullback can Provide Buying ChanceHello Traders,
In this Elliott Wave Analysis, we will have a look at the Real Estate ETF (IYR).
IYR ended the cycle from 03/23/18 (72.71) low at the peak of 07/06/18 (82.20) in blue wave (3). Below from there, the ETF ended the correction from 07/06/18 (82.20) peak in blue wave (4) at 79.23 low. Up from there, it broke already to new highs, confirming that the next extension higher has started.
Near-term IYR ended the correction from 07/06/18 (82.20) peak in blue wave (4) at 79.23 low. The internals of blue wave (4) unfolded as Elliott Wave double correction which ended red wave W at 07/18/18 low (79.76), red wave X pullback at 07/19/18 peak (81.26) and red wave Y of blue wave (4) at 07/25/18 (79.23).
Up from there, the ETF ended the cycle from 07/25/18 low in red wave A at 08/06/18 (82.50) peak. The internals of that move unfolded as a leading diagonal where it ended black wave ((i)) at 07/26/18 low (81.01), black wave ((ii)) pullback at 07/30/18 low (79.24), black wave ((iii)) at 07/31/18 peak (81.51), black wave ((iv)) at 08/01/18 low (80.15) and finally black wave ((v)) of red wave A at 08/06/18 peak (82.50). The ETF is currently in the progress of correcting the cycle from 07/25/18 low (79.23) in 3-7 or 11 swings in red wave B.
Near-term focus remains towards 81.03-80.81, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of black wave ((w))-((x)) to end red wave B pullback. Afterwards, the ETF is expected to find buyers for red wave B higher ideally or should do a 3 waves reaction higher at least. We don’t like selling it into a proposed pullback as the right side remains to the upside.
Elliot Wave USD/CHF Potential Sell Set UpI believe price have completed an Flat correction now watch for an impulse to the downside then a correction to get Short.
Elliot Wave DXY Dollar Sell off Set Up Ending DiagonalThere is a strong possibility that we will see a US Dollar Sell off. We have a completed Bearish Bat and price is at a strong level of Supply. Also price is taking the shape of an Ending Diagonal Elliot Wave formation. I am getting out of my long positions where I have been buying the Dollar. Watch for this set up!
Dow Futures Elliott Wave View: Reacting Higher From Blue BoxHello Traders,
Dow Futures short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally from 6/28/2018 low cycle to 25572 high on 7/27/2018 peak ended red wave 1. The internals of that rally higher took place as an impulse structure with sub-division of 5 waves structure in each leg higher. Down from there, the index corrected the 6/28/2018 cycle in 3 swings pullback & ended red wave 2 at 25086 low.
The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave Zigzag correction with the sub-division of 5-3-5 structure in black wave ((a)), ((b)), ((c)). Down from 7/27 peak, the decline to 25264 low ended black wave ((a)) in 5 waves structure. From there, the rally to 25486 high ended black wave ((b)) and the subsequent move lower to 25086 low ended black wave ((c)) of 2 in 5 waves structure. Red wave 2 ended within the 25174 – 25100 area, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension of ((a))-((b)), as indicated by the blue box.
Up from 25086, the index is reacting higher in 3 swings so far and longs from blue box area should be risk-free (stop loss at break even) already. The right side tag, combined with the blue box, help to identify the right trading strategy. Near-term, as far as dips remain above 25086 low, the right side of the market remains to the upside. Expect the Index to resume the next extension higher in red wave 3. We don’t like selling it.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis: Ready To Rally Higher?!Hello Traders,
Today we will have a look at NASDAQ in the 1-hour timeframe.
Short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the decline to $7167.37 low ended blue wave (2) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott Wave Flat correction where red wave A ended at $7311.50 low. Above from there, the bounce to $7530 high ended red wave B bounce as Elliott wave Zigzag where black wave ((a)) ended at $7489.75 high, black wave ((b)) pullback ended at $7386.75 low and black wave ((c)) of red B ended at $7530 high.
Down from there, the index declined in 5 waves lower within red wave C. The first leg lower black wave ((i)) ended at $7388.5. Up from there, the bounce to $7467 high ended black wave ((ii)) and then the decline to $7263.50 low ended black wave ((iii)). black wave ((iv)) bounce ended at $7309.25 and the last leg black wave ((v)) of red C ended at $7167.37 low. This last leg also completed blue wave (2) pullback.
Near-term, while dips remain above $7167.37 low, we expect the Index to resume the next leg higher. A break above $7530 (irregular red wave B) however is needed for final confirmation to avoid a double correction lower. As long as the pivot at 7167.37 low in our distribution system stays intact, we expect it move higher. We don’t like selling the index.
BTCUSD Wave 4 of 5As per Elliott Wave theory, wave 4 should not retrace lower than wave 1. Also, we are at 61.8 level, so if the bulls are to take charge, this would be the moment.
If you want to get it, wait for some green volume candles to come in and market structure. Risk to new lows.
Dow Retrace: How deep - how low will it go?Many ideas posted about bullish up wave in the flag, but to get to that we need to have a down wave first.
Only q? How low will it go? Three possibles depicted here in chart - Fibo .382, .50, .618 retracements.
I'm confident we will get back to at least 250 support (former resistance) for a .382 pullback in an Elliott A wave.
If investor confidence fails and we get panic-style selling the drop will be sharper. I expect likely to get to at least 0.50 around 24852; S&P would settle ~2740 then.
Frantic selling will produce the 0.618 Fibo at 24680 and a real panic will take us back to 24400 (not charted).
Notice that the deeper the pullback, the stronger and higher the resulting bullish impulse (B waves - looks like a pitchfork) after the selloff.
Fascinating - I wish I knew what the dam thing will do but I went short Friday and looks good today - good luck peeps!
AUD/USD Sell Set Up Corrective Structure Triangle or FlatLook for price to make an impulsive move to the downside then a correction to get short. I believe price is near the end of forming a correction structure that has taken the shape of a Triangle of Flat, Both will point price to move lower
USD/CHF Wave Analysis Buy Set UpWatch for USD/CHF to finish the corrective structure which I believe is a running flat. Look for an impulse then a correction to get long and ride the wave up
EUR/USD Wave Analysis Sell Set UpEUR/USD have been forming a corrective structure. We could be near the end of the scorrection which I believe is a Triangle. Watch for an impulse to the downside then a correction to get short.
Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis: Rallying Higher as ImpulseHello Traders,
In this analysis, we will have a look at the Nifty index from India in the 4-hour timeframe.
Nifty Elliott wave analysis suggests that the rally to 11171.55 high ended black wave ((3)). Down from there, the decline to 9951.9 low ended black wave ((4)) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure with sub-division of 3-3-3 corrective swings in each leg. Down from 11171.55 high, the initial decline to 10276.3 low ended blue wave (W) as a Flat. Then the bounce to 10637.8 high ended blue wave (X) bounce. And the decline to 9951.9 low ended blue wave (Y) of black wave ((4)) as Elliott Wave Flat.
Up from 9951.9 low, black wave ((5)) remains in progress as impulse where blue wave (1), (3) & (5) are expected to unfold in 5 waves advance within lesser degree cycles. Whereas blue wave (2) & (4) are expected to unfold in 3 waves corrective sequence in lesser degree cycles. Above from 9951.9 low, the rally higher to 10929.2 high ended blue wave (1) in 5 waves structure. Down from there, the pullback to 10404.62 low ended blue wave (2) in 3 swings.
Above from there, the index is nesting in blue wave (3) higher. Where red wave 1 ended at 10893.25. And the red wave 2 ended at 10557.7 low. Near-term focus remains towards 11458.50-11584.44 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of black wave ((i))-((ii)) to end the lesser degree blue wave (i). Later on, the index is expected to do a pullback in blue wave (ii) in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling the index and prefer more upside as far as the pivot at 10404.62 low in our distribution system stays intact.
ABC Correction Wave by the book!If my wave counts are correct, we are finishing up subwave 3 of the a-correction wave. I've adjusted the target of "a" down further since this wave 3 extended further than I predicted. But either way, this is a good looking correction wave. We should bounce back up to the resistance rectangle 78XX for subwave 4 before hitting the 7250 target of wave "a". Than the "b" wave with 3 subwaves will take us back up to this resistance at 78xx before the final "c" correction wave (made up of 5 subwaves that could take us down to he 6900-7000 target.
This wave structure is setting up almost perfectly according to theory, with the exception of the steep squeezes and quick corrections that we see. But that is part of the volatility of the crypto market. Despite the appearance of whale manipulation and other unregulated variances, the wave theory continues to provide good insight into the market behavior and predicts trend changes just like traditional markets. Happy Trading!
Have a Great Day!
NQ! - Will Apple Save NQ?Apple beat their ER expectation - of course, they're a beast. is it enough to save the market? That's the real question.
I haven't touched elliott wave count in awhile so I thought I give it a shot.
According to the wave count. I see a drop coming in the next week or so. Maybe August will be a weak month after all, now that we're done with all of the FAANG ER's
Lets see if this play out as predicted. Best of luck!
Wave 4 correction is done (A Flat) now up for Wave 5Wave 4 correction is over, it was a Flat 3,3,5. Now we head up for the 5th wave, Target 1 9300 - 9400.
Short and Long We have a pattern of 5 complete waves, which in turn form wave 1 of greater degree, now we are in correction a-b,
once the c wave is finished, ideally in 78.6 a perfect Cypher pattern will be formed that will give us a more confirmed entry for wave 2 of greater degree..
also we have 2 magnets in 78.6 level that must be closed
Recap- for this weeks currency pairs and spyShowing how this weeks currency pairs are playing out for the weeks end.
Correction almost doneSome people didn't think a correction was possible. But here we are, couple of days later, and bitcoin made a much needed and healthy correction so far.
It seems we are currently working on the 5 of the C wave which could end around the 61.8% fib levels. That would be nicely above wave 1 , so valid according to Elliott rules
I will be looking to long when 4 is in and 5 seems to be starting
Correction almost done ?Some people didnt believe a correction was going to happen.
Well here we are, a couple of days later and BTC sure did a nice and healthy correction.
And...It looks like the correction almost done ?
From what i see we're putting in the 4 of the 5 of the C wave.
Logical target for 4 seems to be around the 0.618 fib level which is still above the wave 1 high, so not breaking any Elliott Wave rules.
I Will go long when 4 is done and 5 is starting
