Elliottwaveprojection
HMPRO | Wave Projection | Complex Inv. Head & Shoulders BreakoutPrice action and chart pattern trading setup
> A possible bullish uptrend ABC scenario with complex inverse head & shoulders pattern with SMMA50D as its neckline BREAKOUT!
> The candlestick pattern is consolidating just above the breakout area which possibly retest its neckline next week before price push higher.
> Entry @ B1: PULLBACK retesting neckline within area of candlestick consolidation B2 @ breakout as follow buy.
> Target: Inverse head & shoulders T1 is fibo 1.0 extension and T2 just below 1.618 ext. zone + 12 - 18%
> Stoploss: right shoulder zone - 7 - 8%
> Risk reward ratio: 1.5 - 2: 1
> Indicator: RSI > 60 bullish channel and breakout MA
> The key fundamental analysis found that this coming high season after Thailand major flooding could trigger a boost in revenue and profit in upcoming Q4 company performance.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss.
ITEL | Wave Projection | Downtrend Channel Breakout - A-Wave?Price action and chart pattern trading setup:
> A possible downtrend A-wave reversal zone at the 5-wave uptrend Head & Shoulders target
> Now breakout downtrend 5-wave channel and developing an Inverse Head & Shoulders reversal pattern below SMMA200D zone.
> If breakout successfully, A possible scenario for long entry, we could wait for price to retest its neckline.
> Target zone 1 - 2 - 3 as follows: Inverse H&S SMMA200 zone, bullish channel target, and B-wave targeting 0.5 - 0.618 retracement zone.
> Stoploss at inverse head & shoulders' head - 7 - 8%
> Risk reward ratio: 2:1 / 2.5:1 / 3:1 respectively
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing is 100%.
GOOGL | Wave Projection | A-wave Correction Bullish DivergencePrice action and chart pattern trading setup:
> A possible A-wave correction zone at 0.618 fib retracement from previous 5-wave uptrend as well as the head & shoulders target with a bullish divergence RSI indicator in weekly timeframe which is showing a strong reversal signal.
> In daily timeframe, the price breakout SMA20 with a small double bottom pattern and MACD golden cross signal line just below zero and now consolidating at upper key level resistance.
> If breakout, the upside is opened to a possible B-wave ABC uptrend with a target 0.5 - 0.618 retracement between +20 - 25% with its double bottom downside -7%, estimated risk reward ratio at 2.5:1
Good Luck
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing is 100%.
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY
- USDJPY is currently BUYing. The reason for that is that with US ECONOMIC DATA being POSITIVE, UJ was BUY very well until last week. And FED UPDATES were very POSITIVE. Another major reason was that the dollar continued to strengthen after last Friday's LABOR DATA. So JPY went down automatically in previous days. But with the intervention of the BANK OF JAPAN, there is now a very good demand for YEN in the market.
- At present, the MARKET is becoming somewhat RISK ON, that's why the JPY is going up. According to the USDJPY ANALYSIS we provided earlier, the USDJPY UPSIDE WAVE is currently UP around 145 ++ PIPS.
- There is definitely a very high possibility that USDJPY will go down a bit more and move to 148.45 LEVEL. The reason for that is because the MARKETS RISK is already on, so it can happen. After that USDJPY price can go up to 152.67 LEVEL. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
AUDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND FUNDA & TECHNICAL BIAS#AUDUSD
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for AUD is slightly UP SIDE according to the MARKET SENTIMENT. Due to RISK ON for AUDUSD, there is currently an UPSIDE BIAS for it. The main reason for that is because MARKET RISK is ON, STOCKS and COMMODITIES MARKETS are now slightly UP. It is heavily influenced by the Australian dollar.
- It is definitely possible to break the AUDUSD STRUCTURE and go up to the higher RESISTANCE LEVEL. Accordingly, AUDUSD can go down to 0.6000 LEVEL. And before that, AUDUSD can be BUY to the 0.6429 LEVEL if the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP. For that, the MARKET STRUCTURE should be BREAKED..
USOIL | Wave Analysis | Possible 4-Wave Long DetourPrice action and chart pattern medium term outlook on weekly timeframe
> Wave Pattern - ABC correction after completing 3-wave 1.618 extension of 1-wave within the C leg, now taking a detour uptrend 4-wave estimated 0.382 - 0.5 retracement between 95 - 100 USD. The final target downtrend price could be about MA200W and Head & Shoulders target zone at 60++ USD as key level support.
Tesla still has a long way to goYesterday, Tesla extended a new low slightly below the previous one. Tesla is now at $205.37, clearing the way for the Alternative Count.
Thus, we can assume that we saw the overriding in November 2021 and have been in a correction since then.
Typical for the wave is a correction at least below the 0.618 retracement. Also common for the type of correction, according to the Elliott waves, is the 1.618 extension of waves and , which is just above the 0.786 retracement at $98.55.
www.elliottwave.com
What this means for us is that Tesla stock is likely to fall almost 54% more. The next hurdle is at the $158.58 (-26%) where the 0.618 retracement is tested.
Tesla has lost almost 30% in the last 30 days, such an impulsive sell-off suggests that the correction is not over yet.
However, if the price now turns around and sustainably rises above $315.13, the alternative scenario comes into effect and we still see values around $400. After all, still with 40% likely.
Translated with www.DeepL.com (free version)
ALPINEUSDT | Wave Projection | Possible Breakout ScenarioPrice action and chart pattern trading
> Now the price reaches the downtrend at 0.786 retracement and T1 Head and shoulders target with a hammer candlestick, followed by a doji.
> The candlestick pattern is consolidating within the downtrend ABC correction and starting to squeeze under the upper resistance.
> A possible breakout scenario for long entry, we could wait for price to retest its low.
> Target SMMA50 and SMMA200
> Stoploss @ the candlestick hammer wick or the price could come down to 2.0 area
> RRR: 2:1
If breakout successfully, the value area of $2.8-3.0 will become the support for the price in the near future.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing is 100%.
SCC | Elliott Wave Projection | Head & Shoulders Target BottomPrice action and chart pattern trading
> TFM head & shoulders pattern after a possible major 4-wave downtrend 0.618 retracement with ABC correction formation
> Target H&S bottom @ the next key level down SMMA200 month as a strong support - possible retesting previous 4-wave zone during covid outbreak.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing is 100%.
TENCENT | Wave projection - Bullish Divergence Possible Rebound?Price action and chart pattern trading: a possible rebound scenario
> Elliott Wave projection - falling zigzag ABC correction wave channel now at C-wave 0.786 extension of A-wave at the key level support.
> Downtrend target reversal position of the major top HEAD & SHOULDERS with double bullish divergence signal
> Target rebound > SMMA 50 key upper resistance POC
Nifty Wave 2 Completed heading towards 17600 zone -Nifty today gave strong bounce from 78% levels Expecting wave 2 bottom here & wave 3 first target is around 17600 zone
Also as wave 2 was retraced more than 38% we can expect wave 3 to be extended i am expecting around 127% but that's our 2nd target
This analysis get invalidated if nifty breaks 16750.
Bitcoin bottom is going to be predicted by the top of the DXY!Im my last chart on BTC with the correlation with the DXY. You can clearly see when BTC dumps the DXY pumps. Even on the weekend when the DXY is not trading BTC does boring sideways action waiting for the DXY to open again. In my opinion we still have further upside with the DXY. We are currently trying to break through an ascending channel to the upside! We can clearly count from the yellow wave 4 another 5 wave move however we are missing the internal wave 5. Which in my opinion will get close to 120 level. Who knows maybe we get bad news tomorrow with the CPI data or with another big rate hike coming later. Let,
's see if we get above the channel and hold the trend line for support. This would be the confirmation we are probably going to 120.
Bitcoin correlation with the DXY is very interesting!BITCOIN has really been struggling to separate itself from the DXY since the 26/09/2022. If you can predict the top of the DXY you will find the bottom of BTC. I will be doing some Elliott wave analysis on the DXY over the next couple of days so stay make sure you follow for more up to date analysis.
How to define the end of a correction based on time - EWHi EW Fans,
made you a CheatSheet how to define the end of a correction based on time. If you are sure about the start of a wave/impulse you can very easy define a possible time "vector" for the end of the correction.
Start of the impulse = Zero
Top of the impulse = 0.382
End of the correction at the common Fib numbers: 0.681/0.65; 0.89; 1; 1.272; 1.618 and so on.
If you combine it with a Fibonacci Retracement Tool (LogScale) you are able to define a price and time "vector" for a possible reversal or for the next impulse/wave.
Greetings
SPY Wave Count - Completing Wave 2?Still considering that this leg down is merely Wave 2. Channel and Fib work shows that we might drop down as low as 3,400 but the wave count conviction remains. My key motivator for this count is the long term action of price against the 40 month moving average.
I have long believed that a major washout in the markets would occur. Way too much debt and the game has gone on far too long. It will come to an end. In looking at the very long term, perhaps with the Great Depression being the first long term Wave 2 in the Super Cycle, it appears that we might be in the final Wave 5 of the great cycle. So it plays well into my scenario. How will it end? Your guess is as good as mine. But if you figure that we have been in a bull market since the beginning of the 1900s to present, A major Super Cycle correction will unveil dramatic changes, especially in the paper money markets. It's clear that many countries are signing up for a commodity-based money system while another segment is pushing for blockchain. What seems very clear is the correlation between to availability of energy over the decades, the growth of the population and the quality of life. With a segment of the world pushing for the elimination of fossil fuels, seems clear to me that a large segment of the world's population will disappear due to starvation, lack of medicines and poor sanitation, etc. In addition to the other societal trends that have resulted in the reduction of population growth, how much longer will the Capitalist system endure?
Fortunately for me, being in my late 60s, I foresee this next wave three lasting possibly for my remaining years. Don't think I will be around to see the demise of the system.
Current strategy, building up portfolios in various tax-bucket accounts for efficient tax-planning in retirement. Physical gold and silver a mainstay over the years, diversified portfolios with buy-writes in major corporations with decent dividends. Iron Condor volatility spreads on the indicies. Also have been adding TLT but with short options against. Don't know how this will play out but while capital has been declining on this one, dividends and option writes have been providing a good revenue source.
Comments welcome. Anyone else looking at Wave Theory here?