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USDCHF:The Confluence of Trends and FundamentalsHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.85300 zone, USDCHF is trading an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.85300 support and resistance area. From a technical perspective, USDCHF exhibits a clear uptrend, and its current correction phase positions it near the critical support and resistance area at 0.85300. Traders will be closely monitoring this level for potential entry points. Now, let's add a fundamental layer to our analysis. Recent economic indicators, especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI), play a pivotal role in shaping currency dynamics. Examining the previous CPI figures (3.1%, 3.2%, 3.7%) in contrast to the latest readings (3.4%, 3.1%, 3.2%), we observe a nuanced inflationary pattern. This trend suggests a potential strengthening of the US dollar, aligning with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Considering the CPI data within the broader economic landscape, traders may anticipate increased speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A growing inflationary environment could prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, signaling potential interest rate adjustments in the future. This shift in monetary policy can significantly influence currency valuations, contributing to a possible strengthening of the USD against its counterparts. In conclusion, as we navigate the intricacies of the forex market, keeping a watchful eye on both technical and fundamental factors is essential. The alignment of a favorable technical setup with evolving fundamental narratives enhances the overall decision-making process for traders. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
12
Bearish Bitcoin Spike on the Weekly"Buy the rumor/Sell the news" is a phenomenon as old as markets. It was like betting on the sun not to rise tomorrow. I have talked to many Bitcoin enthusiasts who are perplexed by this occurrence. They were assured by various Twitter personalities that this week would see the largest inflow of capital into Bitcoin ever, price would rise, and if they just bought prior to the news they would make tremendous gains. This was never going to happen. With the close of the prior eventful week's candle we now have a confirmed price Spike on the INDEX:BTCUSD Weekly. On Wednesday amid the "buy the news" nonsense price briefly surpassed a major high set in March 2022 only to retrace the entire ETF launch and then return to the bottom of the prior range. This is a very bearish signal from which price does not typically recover. The first level of Support will be found around 32.2k; the 50% Retracement of the rally since November 2022. The most ironic, and most likely outcome, is that price retraces the entire ETF hype rally. Breaking the ETF news high would of course resume the trend upward but at this point despite the memes circulating Twitter trying to reassure all to HODL that is a very low probability with the price action we have seen. I remain short Bitcoin via pre-existing ETFs such as AMEX:BITI and will be adding to them during the coming week. Wall Street is not coming to save your longs...
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
66
Bitcoin: 40K Break Trend Change?Bitcoin rejects the 50K resistance area and goes from 49K to 41,500 over a two day period. If you have been following my analysis on here you should NOT be surprised. I have been highlighting the extreme risks above 46K in my articles AND my streams since the beginning of the month. Is this an adequate pullback to buy into? I will address that now. The first question that we must consider is: has anything changed in terms of trend? From a technical perspective, NOT YET. The 40K support is still intact, and until this level is clearly compromised, it is still within reason to anticipate the overall support to hold. One thing to keep in mind though, there is a large red candle coming off a major resistance level and this means momentum is bearish. IF this momentum continues, 40K can break at which point a change in trend would be in play. For this reason, BEFORE considering any swing trades on the long side, I will WAIT for a complex reversal pattern (see illustration on chart). This can appear in the form of a classic double bottom or failed low in the 40K AREA. A couple of green inside bars is NOT enough in this situation because of the recent surge in momentum. Typically inside bars in this configuration are often momentum continuation patterns which at the moment favors the bears. In previous reports and streams I have specifically mentioned the relevance of the monthly time frame and potential of a bearish C wave developing. IF 40K breaks, this further confirms that argument. A bearish C wave can potentially lead to a test of 15K (this can take months to play out). It is important to be cognizant of this scenario particularly for investors who plan to dollar cost average into the next pullback. Don't make the mistake to getting too big too soon. There is no way to know if 15K will be tested, maybe the bottom of C turns out to be 30K, or maybe Wave C never unfolds at all, and 40K holds. The point is, don't get married to any opinions bullish OR bearish. Avoid getting swept up into the nonsense machine (the internet). You only need a few components of information to make reasonable decisions. Start with having a repetitive way to identify trend and changes of trend, and second the same for KEY support and resistance levels. These two components alone can improve decision making because they help you align with market intent. This game is NOT about "thinking" and being right. It is about ADJUSTING as the market processes new information. Unless you are ahead of the information curve, you have to accept that the market is ALWAYS right. It can do whatever IT wants, WHENEVER it wants for ANY REASON. Charts help to isolate a probable range of scenarios which you can reference to better quantify risk. The more you over think it, the greater the chance that you lose. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29
BTC REJECTED AT GOLDEN POCKET, PRINTS UGLY CANDLENot the move that ETF bulls were looking for, but also not surprising with GBTC now unlocked and putting selling pressure on the market. Technicals at the moment indicate that more downside is likely. The weekly candle closed as a shooting star , a candle with a long wick up and red body. This is often the signal of a weakening or ending uptrend. This also happened to have a wick up into the golden pocket, between the 61.8% and 65% retracement levels, a key resistance on the chart. I have no idea what will happen - nobody does. The chart indicates that bears are back in control for the moment. We need to see more downside to confirm the bearish candle from last week, or else the shooting star is not that meaningful. This week will be fun to watch.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ScottMelker
26
$SPX500 2024 Guess for the Year $SPYHere are the actual #'s for you to see the 2024 Wall Street analysts forecasts on the chart. Once those are charted in the black rectangles at the year-end price targets, we can see where there are concentrations of estimates and where investors might pause and sell as the target has been reached for the year. And then I added in the 9% and 10% green lines to indicate the common average annual compound return of the stock market (excludes dividends). I could imagine there will be multiple rejections of the cluster where people want to "lighten up at the target" into the election in November. I plotted three pullbacks from the resistance area and then once the doubt is no longer hanging over the market, it can rally and the money chases into stocks. Election years have often been sideways grind and this year seems like more of the same. The media headlines are negative and investors are scared of a recession and another banking crisis. Inflation is always a fear and the Fed has hiked 500 basis points and although their language has shifted from "higher for longer" over to "easing ahead possibly three rate cuts in 2024" to paraphrase Jerome Powell at the Fed. The stock market is unchanged after two years and many investors are shell-shocked from the bear market in 2022 and trying to fend off the lure of T-Bills and money market funds with their juicy 4%-5% yields which are the highest they have been in years. Take a look at my interest rate "guess" from last year when rates were near peak to show you what I was thinking back then (hint: topping, down to sideways. See link below). This is my annual fun 'guess' which has been something I have done for about the last 10 years and with some luck it has at least acknowledged the big factors in the market and even if I am dead wrong I took a shot at it and welcome questions and comments. Cheers to a healthy 2024 for everyone. Tim Jan 11, 2024 10:00AM EST
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Long
by timwest
49
Algorithmic Identification and Classification of Chart PatternsWelcome to the world of technical analysis, where chart patterns play a pivotal role in shaping trading strategies. This is an ultimate guide designed to help users objectively identify the existence of patterns, define the characteristics and classify them. In this discussion, we will mainly concentrate on the patterns formed by trend line pairs. This includes wedges, triangles and channel type patterns. 🎲 Basic Principle of Identifying the Pattern It is very important to apply definitely set of rules when identifying the patterns in order to avoid biases or fitting patterns to our opinions. The dangers of overfitting the patterns to our bias is documented in the idea To identify the patterns objectively, we need to set some ground rules or follow a well-defined technique to derive the patterns. Here is the technique we follow to identify chart patterns. 🎲 Only Indicator Required - Zigzag Tradingview has plenty of free community scripts for Zigzag indicator. For this demonstration, we are going to use our Multi Timeframe Recursive Zigzag implementation. Once the indicator is loaded on the chart, go to indicator settings and perform these modifications. Disable the Labels : The Labels contain information that is needed for this exercise. Set the Highlight level to 1 or 0 : We can iteratively increase the level and check next levels on the go. You can also adjust Zigzag Length and Depth Parameters. 🎲 Scanning and Identification of valid Pattern We can either use 5 pivots or 6 pivots for pattern identification. 5-Pivot based scanning will generate more patterns than 6-Pivot based scanning. 6 pivot patterns are geometrically more accurate however, there is no proof that 6-Pivot based patterns produce better trading outcome. 🎯 Step 1 - On each level of zigzag, mark the last 5 or 6 zigzag pivots. Since we are using Multi Timeframe Recursive Zigzag implementation, we can gradually increase the zigzag level from 0. This means that on every level, we can check if there are any patterns. On each level - consider only the last 5 or 6 pivots and mark them on the chart. Markings on Level 0 would look like this for 5 and 6 pivot scanning 🎯 Step 2: Draw Trend Lines As part of this step, draw two trend lines. The first trend line will join pivots 1 and 5 marked in the previous step. The second trend line will join pivots 2 and 4 marked in the previous step for 5 pivot scanning. For 6 pivot scanning, the trend line joining pivots 2 and 6 will be marked. 🎯 Step 3: Inspect the validity of trend lines A valid trend line is the one that confirm to below two points Touches all the alternate pivots. For example, the trend line drawn from pivot 1 to 5 should also make contact with the candle of pivot 3. In case of 6 pivot scanning, the trend drawn from pivot 2 to 6 should also make contact with the candle of pivot 4. All the candles from the starting pivot to ending pivot of the zigzag should be confined within the trend line pairs. Meaning, no candles should completely go above the upper trend line and no candle should completely go below the lower trend line. Please note that while verifying the above points, minor adjustments in the alignment of the trend line can be made. Start and end of the trend line does not need to be on the high/low points of the candle, it can also be placed in any of the wick positions. After adjusting the trend lines, in both type of scanning, we can see that the trend lines confirm to the above-mentioned rules. Hence, we have arrived with valid patterns in both types of scanning on the level 0 zigzag. 🎲 Classification of Patterns Once the patterns are identified, they need to be classified into different types. We need to apply predetermined rules to objectively classify patterns into what they are. Everyone can build their own rules. 🎯 Properties of Derived Trend Lines Before classifying the trend lines, we need to understand below properties of the derived trend lines. ▶ Direction of Individual Trend Lines Both the trend lines needs to be individually classified among these categories Rising - Trend Line is sharply rising up. Falling - Trend Line is sharply falling down. Flat - Trend Line is flat across the pivots. Bi-Directional - Trend Lines are moving in opposite directions Please note that, it is less probable for trend line to absolutely flat. Hence, allow angle to have certain degree of threshold to be considered as flat. For example, +- 10 degrees can be considered as flat. Also, the angle of the trend line can further subjective based on how compressed the chart is. It is recommended to use either log/auto-scale or a specific formula based on ATR to identify the angle. ▶ Characteristic of the Trend Line Pairs This parameter defines how both trend lines are aligned with respect to each other. Possible options are: Converging - Trend Lines are converging and when extended towards the right will intersect at a visible distance. Diverging - Trend Lines are diverging from each other and when extended towards the left will intersect at a visible distance. Parallel - Trend Lines are almost parallel to each other and may not intersect to either right or to left at a visible distance. To objectively identify the intersection distance, we further need to use some standard. Here are few options Fixed Number of Bars : If the trend lines do not intersect to either left or right within X bars (Lets say 100), they can be considered as parallel. Otherwise, they can be classified as converging or diverging based on which side the intersection happens. Relative to the Length of Pattern : If the length of longest trend line is X bars. The trend lines should converge within 1–2 times the X bars to be considered as converging or diverging. Or else, it can be termed as parallel channels. 🎯 Geometrical Shapes Classification Following are the main geometrical classifications based on the characteristics of the trend lines and the pair. Channels - Trend Lines are parallel to each other. And hence they both move in the same directions. Wedges - Trend Lines are either converging or diverging from each other. However, both trend lines move in the same direction. Both trend lines will be either up or down. Triangles - Trend Lines are either converging or diverging from each other. But, unlike wedges, upper and lower trend lines will have different direction. 🎲 Types of Patterns Once we identify the direction and characteristics of trend lines, we can go on and classify the pattern in following categories. Details below. Please note that examples are generated programmatically. 🎯 Rising Wedge (Contracting) Rules for Contracting Rising Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are Rising Trend Lines are converging. 🎯 Rising Wedge (Expanding) Rules for the Expanding Rising Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are rising Trend Lines are diverging. 🎯 Falling Wedge (Contracting) Rules for the Contracting Falling Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are falling Trend Lines are contracting. 🎯 Falling Wedge (Expanding) Rules for the Expanding Falling Wedge are as follows: Both Trend Lines are falling Trend Lines are diverging. 🎯 Contracting/Converging Triangle Rules for the Contracting Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is falling The lower trend line is rising Naturally, the trend lines are converging. 🎯 Rising Triangle (Contracting) The rules for the Contracting Rising Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is flat The lower trend line is rising Naturally, the trend lines are converging towards each other 🎯 Falling Triangle (Contracting) The rules for the Contracting Falling Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is falling The lower trend line is flat Naturally, the trend lines are converging towards each other 🎯 Expanding/Diverging Triangle Rules for the Expanding Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is rising The lower trend line is falling Naturally, the trend lines are diverging from each other. 🎯 Rising Triangle (Expanding) The rules for the Expanding Rising Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is rising The lower trend line is flat Naturally, the trend lines are diverging from each other 🎯 Falling Triangle (Expanding) The rules for the Expanding Falling Triangle are as follows The upper trend line is flat The lower trend line is falling Naturally, the trend lines are diverging from each other 🎯 Rising/Uptrend Channel Rules for the Uptrend Channel are as follows Both trend lines are rising Trend lines are parallel to each other 🎯 Falling/Downtrend Channel Rules for the Downtrend Channel are as follows Both trend lines are falling Trend lines are parallel to each other 🎯 Ranging Channel Rules for the Ranging Channel are as follows: Both trend lines are flat Naturally, the trend lines are parallel to each other.
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by Trendoscope
45
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surge – A Bullish Signal for Market Adoption?Welcome to a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin market! As we witness the launch of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, including giants like Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Franklin Templeton's EZBC, the landscape of cryptocurrency investing is evolving before our eyes. First-day volumes paint a promising picture, with funds that 'Buy Bitcoin' directly, such as FBTC (Fidelity), BITB (Bitwise), and EZBC (Franklin Templeton), accounting for a significant 14.06% of the total volume. This direct investment approach is injecting fresh capital into the spot Bitcoin market, hinting at a bullish outlook for Bitcoin adoption and price movement. Let's not overlook the powerhouses that follow Bitcoin's price through derivatives, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and Grayscale's GBTC, which command an impressive 85.94% of the total volume. While they may not directly purchase Bitcoin, their market presence can't be ignored, as they reflect growing investor interest and add to the overall Bitcoin market depth. With the potential move to a T+1 settlement cycle, the market could see increased efficiency and a more immediate impact from ETF inflows. This could be particularly beneficial for ETFs purchasing Bitcoin, as it allows for quicker capital deployment, enhancing the responsiveness of the market to new investments. But let's temper our optimism with a dose of reality. It's crucial to remember that not all ETFs are created equal – some provide direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements, while others offer a more nuanced approach through futures and other financial instruments. The true impact of these funds will unfold with time, as we closely monitor their influence on market demand and price dynamics. In essence, the influx of new Bitcoin ETFs could be a harbinger of increased adoption and integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial world. This is a bullish sign for those of us optimistic about the future of digital assets. Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this exciting phase of market growth. And remember, despite the complexities, the introduction of these ETFs is a step toward broader acceptance and a testament to Bitcoin's enduring allure. So..still very Bullish news... still very Good news! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
by FX_Professor
45
XRP High probability Uptrend with 70% move with target: $1.042The analysis below outlines a bullish case, with a target price of $1.042, marking a potential 71.76% increase from the current level. Ascending Channel Formation: The XRPUSD has been trading within an ascending channel, exhibiting higher lows and higher highs, a classical indicator of a bullish trend. The lower boundary of the channel has consistently provided support, suggesting a strong buying interest. Consolidation Zone: Prior to the current price action, XRPUSD was consolidating, with the price oscillating between a well-defined range of support and resistance levels. The upper boundary of this range may act as a springboard for a breakout. Z-Score Probability Indicator: The Z-Score indicator has dipped into the red zone, which often precedes a reversal. Given the other bullish signals, this could indicate a potential buying opportunity. Moving Averages: XRPUSD is currently trading above its significant moving averages, which have started to trend upwards, suggesting a bullish market structure.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by meloneusk
16
AMD - Approaching All Time HighsHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: After the massive breakout in 2016 we saw a rally of more than 4.500% on AMD. This rally was perfectly followed by a correction of 70% in 2022. As mentioned in my analysis, I am now waiting for a retracement back to the previous structure and if we have enough bullish confirmation, I will then look for potential trading opportunities. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ:AMD
by basictradingtv
24
Breakout Alert: Nvidia (NVDA)Revolutionary AI-Optimised Graphics Propel Nvidia's Breakout After months of sideways consolidation, Nvidia’s share price broke and closed decisively above resistance during yesterday's session – potentially reigniting the stocks powerful long-term uptrend. Nvidia, a key player in the AI revolution, had an exceptional 2023, with its stock value more than tripling. However, the majority of these gains occurred in the first half of the year. Since summer, Nvidia's stock has been consolidating within a sideways range, as indicated in the chart below. These prolonged consolidation phases within an established trend are not just typical but also beneficial. They facilitate stock rotation, involving accumulation and distribution, which helps prevent the trend from becoming overly stretched. The breakthrough to new trend highs occurred following Nvidia's announcement of groundbreaking desktop graphics processors tailored for AI purposes—the GeForce RTX 40 SUPER Series. This unveiling triggered a substantial 6.4% surge, propelling the stock to close at record highs. Additionally, ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the company introduced other AI-related components and software. Nvidia (NVDA) Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results A Closer Look If we take a closer look at yesterday’s breakout, there are several technical factors which indicate that the breakout has potential to continue: Backed By Volume: On the hourly candle chart (below) we can see that the breakout was backed by an increase in volume – signalling increased participation. Volume acts as a validation mechanism for breakouts. It provides confidence to traders that the breakout has a stronger chance of being a genuine shift in market sentiment, rather than a temporary blip. Higher Swing Lows: From November to December, Nvidia’s share price had been carving out a series of higher swing lows as the market repeatedly tested resistance. This signals that institutional ‘smart money’ traders were accumulating shares prior to the breakout. Strong Close: Yesterday’s price action saw the shares maintain the breakout into the closing bell. This signals strong demand and reduces the probability that the breakout will fail. Nvidia (NVDA) Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Capitalcom
13
Bitcoin's Final Make Or Break MomentThis is my first post in some time. As I stated before, I'm largely moving on from crypto. I'm still here, paying attention to the market. I've also created a site for my fiction writing. Eventually, I may migrate some of these posts over there as representations of my non-fiction speculative market analysis. Anyway, on to the important stuff. Bitcoin did not succeed as a currency. Active addresses have still not seen any meaningful increase since 2017. The rate of growth for authentic currency adoption has slowed down along with price growth and expensiveness. studio.glassnode.com There are only about 1 million active addresses. Nevertheless, price continues to be resilient. Perhaps this is due to its limited supply and its pivot in narrative to a "store of value." Indeed, it has been a pretty lucrative store of value, though more volatile than the stock market and other commodities. This doesn't necessarily make it a "good" store of value. Regardless of what I think, the market will make its decision. Now is the time for that to happen. With ETFs supposedly on the horizon, we will get to see how much demand really exists for Bitcoin. I'm going to take this moment to speculate a bit. If it continues to go up, my guess is it will be because of the ETF hype, but volume amongst most spot exchanges will remain low. Bitcoin dominance would likely rise to levels not seen since 2019. If it results in a bubble, eventually people will come to their senses and there will be a pop. It will attract a lot of media and government attention, not all of it positive. If it drops from here, it will be like all the other times people had high hopes for Bitcoin. It will be like all the times Bitcoin was supposed to represent economic freedom. It will be like every single time Bitcoin made major news, only for everyone to talk about it just as it was about to crash. It will not come as any surprise. If the ETFs fail to sustain the market to new highs, then I think there is little other chance for this asset, at least in the near future, until some other narrative takes hold. The thing exists, and as long as it does, people will ascribe their hopes, dreams, and (in my case) disdain towards it. What would be a departure would be continued price appreciation and adoption. But, with a finite supply, there is of course a limit to how much people can buy. Then, what happens to it? We shouldn't forget the other side of this market (apart from the ETF hype and the coin accumulation that requires). Binance is still a thing. BNB is still a juggernaut. Tron is still a thing, and so is the big stablecoin cartel which likely revolves around both. But I'll spare you all my other thoughts on this subject. I just wanted to post a chart update, to show that I'm at least paying attention. As for technicals, my chart shows two options. If it continues to hold in this broadening wedge pattern, the next target could be $90k, or roughly 2x from here, surpassing the previous all time high. As much as my previous analysis will be wrong if that happens, it's a possibility. The other scenario shows what could happen on a breakdown, back below the broadening pattern. Here's the BLX chart, showing that Bitcoin has so far been rejected at a former long term trendline. This chart shows some more possibilities. Let's see if it can break back above. Zoomed out: Either way, prepare for volatility! As always, thank you so much for reading. This is not financial advice, but meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
105
VOLATILITY IN THE FOREX MARKETHello Forex traders. Today we are going to talk about the concept of Volatility in the Forex market. We will talk about what it is, what volatility depends on, and most importantly how we can use this data to build and improve our own trading strategies and, as a result, get more profit from trading. What Is Volatility? Volatility is the range of price changes from high to low during a trading day, week, or month. The higher the volatility, the higher the range during the trading time period. This is considered to be a higher risk for your positions, but it gives you more opportunities to earn money. Volatility can be measured over different time periods. If we open a daily chart and measure the distance from high to low, we will get the volatility of the day: It turns out that on the chart above, it was 121 pips. We can also measure on another timeframe, for example, weekly chart. The distance from the high point to the low point was 162 pips. The total volatility during the week was 162 points. Volatility can be measured within a trading session or within a trading hour. This allows us to conclude that it is a fractal value. As a rule, the average volatility for the last candles is taken into account. If we take daily charts, the average volatility is usually considered for the last 10 days. Roughly speaking, the last 10 candles are summarized and divided by 10. What Does Volatility Depend On? It depends on the number of trades in the market, players, trading sessions, the general state of the economy of a currency, and, of course, on speculation. It depends on how speculative the market is about a given currency. Note that volatility can be measured both in points and in percent. But it should be noted that most often, the volatility of stocks is measured in percent. In forex, it is more usual to measure in pips. If you are told that the average price change of EURUSD is 0.7%, you can easily convert it into pips. And vice versa, you can calculate percentages from points if you need them for any research. Now let's move on to the most important question. How To Apply Volatility Data For Profit? It's actually quite simple. As they say, everyone knows about it, but no one applies it. This is especially true for intraday trading. Nobody wants to apply the simplest rule. Suppose you know that the average volatility of GBPUSD is 120 pips. Question: if the price has moved up 100 pips from the beginning of the day, should you open a buy position? The answer is obvious, we should not. Because the probability that the price will go up another number of pips is too low. Therefore, we should not open a buy position and on the contrary, we should focus on bearish positions. But for some reason people forget about this simple technique and follow their system. I believe that it is absolutely necessary to include volatility, at least on intraday strategies, in your checklist for market entry. The same can be done with higher timeframes. Let's imagine that we know that GBPUSD has an average weekly volatility of 200 pips. If the pair has moved 50 pips since Monday, we can expect that if the price continues to move down, there is a potential of about 150 pips. Of course, there are days when some movements become bigger or smaller, but we try to rely on statistics. With its help we can calculate the sizes of stops and take-outs. If we decided to be guided by the volatility data and open a sale on the pound, then we would try not to put a large (relative to the weekly timeframe) take profit. Because our expectation within the week is 150 pips. If the average volatility of a pair is 200 pips, it is silly to expect 1000 pips move. At least within a week. Thus, volatility can also be used for risk calculations. If you have opened many positions on different pairs, you can calculate what will happen if all stop-losses are triggered. Of course, the market is not obliged to obey your calculations, but it gives some support for your convenience and trading. Volatility-based Indicator The first indicator is ATR Average True Range indicator invented in 1972. It shows the average volatility and it is used most often to set targets and stop losses. The value of the indicator is multiplied by a multiplier and thus calculate the stop loss or and/or take profit. The calculations will automatically change depending on the current volatility. Volatility is higher, take profit becomes higher. Volatility is smaller and take profit becomes smaller. The next indicator is the CCI It is based on average price and moving average data. It is used as an oscillator, that is, when it is in the oversold zone, it is recommended to buy. And when it is in the overbought zone, it is recommended to sell. Another indicator, which is known to everyone, is Bollinger Bands They consist of a standard moving average and a moving average plus and minus standard deviation, which is calculated based on price. These bands are used most often to determine the limits of movement from the standard average. We can draw conclusions based on this indicator about the end of the movement, correction, etc. Conclusion In this article I have tried to give you an understanding of what volatility is in the forex market and most importantly how we can apply it in our trading. I hope that it will help you in developing and adjusting your own trading systems. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
11
Fib Circles in TradingFibonacci circles, a unique tool in the trading arsenal, offer a compelling blend of technical analysis and mathematical beauty. Rooted in the Fibonacci sequence, they provide traders with a distinct perspective on market trends and potential reversal points. This article delves into the practical application of Fibonacci circles, shedding light on how they can be integrated with other trading tools for more nuanced insights. Background on the Fibonacci Sequence and Its Application in Trading The Fibonacci sequence, discovered by Leonardo of Pisa in the 13th century, is a series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. This sequence, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so forth, holds a mathematical ratio commonly found in nature, art, and architecture. In the financial markets, these ratios, particularly the 61.8% (often referred to as the “golden ratio”), 38.2%, and 23.6%, are used in Fibonacci-based trading methods. Traders apply these ratios to identify potential reversal levels on price charts, believing that markets might retract or extend by these Fibonacci percentages after a price movement. This belief stems from the observation that financial markets often exhibit patterns and structures that resonate with Fibonacci's mathematical harmony, leading traders to use these ratios for analysing future price movements. Understanding Fib Circles Using the Fibonacci sequence, circles can be created. They overlay circular arcs onto a price chart, where each arc represents a potential support or resistance level based on Fibonacci ratios. To construct a Fibonacci circle, one first identifies two significant price points, typically a high and a low. From these points, a circle is drawn, expanding outward in arcs that expand in proportion to the Fibonacci ratios. The arcs intersect the price axis at key levels, like 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, suggesting areas where the market price might experience support or resistance. Extension levels, like 161.8% and 423.6%, are also commonly plotted. This tool is particularly valuable in identifying potential reversal points in market trends. The Fibonacci spiral circle adds another dimension to analysis, though it’s a separate tool. It visually represents the natural spiral found in the Fibonacci sequence. These spirals can help traders anticipate the speed and trajectory of a price movement within the context of a broader trend. How to Use Fib Circles in Trading When utilising trading circles, traders often begin by selecting two significant points on the chart, such as a high and a low. In a bullish trend, this is from a recent swing high to a previous low; in a bearish trend, it’s from a recent swing low to a prior high. The distance between these points is divided by Fibonacci ratios, creating a series of concentric circles. Each represents a potential level where price action might stall or reverse. Traders typically use these circles to gauge market sentiment and potential trend changes. When the price approaches or touches a level, many prefer to observe the market's reaction, looking for signs of support or resistance. If the price bounces off the line, it could indicate a potential reversal point. In addition to identifying support and resistance, Fib circles can offer insights into the strength of a trend. A strong trend might see the price break through several levels, while a weakening trend could struggle to surpass them. While Fibonacci circles can be a valuable tool, traders recognise the importance of context. Market conditions, news events, and other technical indicators are considered alongside these circles. They, therefore, are not standalone predictive tools but part of a broader analytical approach in trading. Integrating Fib Circles with Other Technical Analysis Tools Incorporating Fibonacci circles into a broader technical analysis framework enhances their effectiveness in trading. Traders often combine them with other tools for a more comprehensive market analysis. Head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started with over 1,200+ of these trading tools. One common integration is with moving averages, which help in identifying the prevailing market trend. For example, when a Fib circle level aligns with a key moving average, it can signal a stronger potential support or resistance area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another tool that pairs well with Fibonacci circles. When the RSI shows overbought or oversold conditions and the price reaches a Fib circle level, it may indicate a higher likelihood of a price reversal. Additionally, candlestick patterns are utilised in conjunction with Fibonacci circles to validate potential reversal signals. The presence of a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern at a key level can provide further confirmation of a trade opportunity. Best Practices for Using Fib Circles Using Fib circles effectively requires specific strategies. Here are some practices you may want to know: Accurate Placement: Make sure the starting points for the Fibonacci circles are accurately placed at significant highs and lows. This accuracy is crucial for relevant support and resistance levels. Context Consideration: It’s best to use Fib circles in conjunction with overall market trends and patterns. They aren’t the only consideration when entering a trade. Confirmation: Wait for price action confirmation when the price reaches a notable level. Candlestick patterns or other indicators can support the potential reversal or continuation. Adjustment and Flexibility: Be prepared to adjust the circles as new highs and lows form. Market dynamics are constantly evolving, and flexibility is key. Conservative Use in High Volatility: During periods of high market volatility, it’s a good idea to be more conservative in interpreting Fib circles, as price swings can be erratic and less predictable. The Bottom Line In conclusion, mastering Fibonacci circles can greatly enhance your market analysis. These tools, when used effectively, offer deeper insights into market trends and potential reversals. For traders looking to apply these strategies in real-time markets, opening an FXOpen account can be a valuable step. We provide high-speed execution and tight spreads to put these techniques into practice and refine your trading skills. Happy trading! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
20
OMUSDT Potential Breakout Structure📊 BINANCE:OMUSDT is currently nestled in the tight base of a Falling Wedge pattern. Keep a close eye on the support level around 0.017, as a critical price to break sits at 0.024. Key resistances and upcoming targets are at: 🎯 Targets: Target 1: 0.036 Target 2: 0.057 Target 3: 0.084 Target 4: 0.123 Regardless of the market situation, remember to use appropriate stop loss. A prudent approach is to set the stop loss below the support zone, with a weekly candle closing around 0.016 as a viable option. Stay vigilant and keep an eye on the charts! 🚀
CRYPTO:OMUSDLong
by ArShevelev
16
Eli Lilly Challenges Falling TrendlineEli Lilly spent the fourth quarter consolidating gains, and now trend followers may expect further upside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the peaks of November and December. Prices tried to fight above that resistance yesterday, creating potential for a breakout. The pharma giant also pushed above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Both of those events may suggest that the intermediate-term trend is getting more bullish. Next, LLY jumped on November 2 following strong quarterly results and bottomed around $567 the next session. It tested that post-earnings low last month and repeatedly closed above it. Is new support in place? Finally, MACD just turned positive. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association (“NFA”), and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:LLY
by TradeStation
7
Very basic understanding of support and resistance areas (2 min)In trading, support and resistance are key concepts that help traders analyze price movements and make informed decisions. Here's a basic explanation: Support: Definition: Support is a price level at which a financial instrument (like a stock, currency pair, or commodity) tends to stop falling and may even bounce back up due to buyers. Analogy: Think of support like a floor that prevents the price from falling further. It's a level where buyers are more inclined to enter the market, seeing the current price as attractive. Resistance: Definition: Resistance is a price level at which a financial instrument tends to stop rising and may face difficulty moving higher due to seller pressure. Analogy: Picture resistance as a ceiling that prevents the price from going higher. It's a level where sellers may be more active, considering the current price as too high. In summary, support and resistance are like psychological levels in the market where buying and selling interest tends to cluster. Traders use these levels to make decisions about when to enter or exit trades, set stop-loss orders, or identify potential trend reversals. When the price approaches support, traders may look for buying opportunities, while at resistance, they may consider selling or taking profits.
NYSE:NIOEducation
by ThePrintingRoom
5
Strategies for Those Who Trade the EuroNavigating the currency markets can be complex, but arming oneself with simple euro trading strategies can provide a clear path through the volatility. This article unpacks straightforward methods designed specifically for trading the euro, offering clarity and practical steps for both novice and seasoned traders looking to refine their approach to this currency. Understanding the Euro Market The euro occupies a central role in the global financial system, functioning as the primary currency for the Eurozone – an economic region encompassing numerous European countries. For those aiming to learn forex trading strategies, grasping the dynamics of the euro market is pivotal. The EUR/USD pair, particularly, is a favourite among traders due to its liquidity and the volume of economic data available for analysis. Trading this pair requires an understanding of the broader economic indicators that influence its volatility, such as interest rate decisions, employment statistics, and political events within Europe. EUR/USD trading strategies often hinge on these indicators, guiding traders to forecast potential price movements. To gain the best understanding of the strategies below, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll find all of the tools and charts necessary to put these strategies to the test. Pullback Trading With EMA Confirmation In the realm of currency trading strategies, the pullback strategy with EMA confirmation stands out as a potent method. This approach involves identifying the market trend through higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), or the opposite for a downtrend, and anticipating a pullback – a temporary reversal of the prevailing trend. Traders typically employ two key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) – the 9-period (blue) and the 21-period (red) – to signal the trend's resumption on an hourly chart. Entry Traders may consider entering a position when the 9-period EMA crosses above the 21-period EMA in an uptrend or below in a downtrend. Confirmation of trend continuation through price action is often awaited before execution. Stop Loss Many set stop losses beyond a significant swing point, a level that, if breached, would suggest the prevailing trend has been invalidated. Alternatively, some may implement a trailing stop loss, adjusted to follow price movements by sitting below swing points in an uptrend or above in a downtrend. Take Profit Profit targets are often established in support or resistance areas. The rationale behind this strategy lies in its blend of trend-following and momentum. By waiting for a pullback and EMA crossover, traders filter out minor price fluctuations, engaging only when the trend shows signs of continuation. This method aims to capitalise on the natural ebb and flow of market movements while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management. Breakouts at Support/Resistance With Engulfing Candles Spotting breakouts at key support or resistance levels combined with the appearance of engulfing candles is often a cornerstone of potentially profitable forex trading strategies. This method revolves around the keen observation of price consolidation within a discernible range, as traders anticipate a potential breakout signalling a reversal – ideal for day trading EUR/USD. An engulfing candle, which fully encompasses the range of the previous candle, acts as a robust indicator for many traders. This candle pattern suggests a strong shift in market sentiment. When it occurs at a significant level of support or resistance, the implication is that the market may be setting up for a compelling move. Entry Traders might consider a position when an engulfing candle forms at a consolidation point, indicating a breakout. The preference is for the trade to be in the direction of the engulfing candle – bullish or bearish. Stop Loss Stop losses are frequently placed just beyond the opposite end of the range or the support/resistance level. Take Profit Profits are often targeted at the next substantial support or resistance level, where a reversal could be anticipated. The rationale for this strategy lies in the combination of price action and candlestick analysis. Engulfing candles at support or resistance levels represents a clear narrative of market dynamics: a struggle between buyers and sellers resolved by a sudden, decisive victory for one side. By entering after such a signal, traders are banking on the momentum generated by the breakout, aiming to ride the wave of renewed market conviction. Parabolic SAR With ADX The combination of Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) with the Average Directional Index (ADX) can form the basis of a dynamic strategy especially suited to scalping EUR/USD, where quick, precise trades capitalise on small price movements. With both indicators set to their default parameters, the ADX serves as a filter to gauge the strength of a trend. A reading above 25 is typically indicative of a strong trend, at which point traders might look to the Parabolic SAR for direction. Entry into the market aligns with the direction of the Parabolic SAR, but only when the ADX confirms the trend's vigour. Entry Traders may decide to enter trades in the direction suggested by the Parabolic SAR when the ADX crosses above 25, signalling a strong trend. If the ADX is already above 25 and the Parabolic SAR flips, indicating a new trend direction, this could also prompt an entry. Stop Loss Stop losses are often positioned above or below the candle that aligns with the first dot of the SAR indicator to protect against sudden changes in trend or at a nearby swing point. Take Profit Taking profits is typically considered when the Parabolic SAR indicates a potential change in the trend's direction. This strategy effectively harnesses the strength of trend momentum, as confirmed by the ADX, while utilising the Parabolic SAR for precise entry and exit points. In the fast-paced scalping environment, where the EUR/USD can exhibit swift movements, this method provides a structured yet responsive approach. It leverages the inherent market rhythm, enabling traders to make quick decisions with the confidence that comes from a dual-indicator system. The Bottom Line In conclusion, these simple euro trading strategies are just a few ways to trade the forex markets. As you apply these methods, consider the advantages of trading with a seasoned broker. By choosing to open an FXOpen account, you gain access to a platform where precision and strategy come together, setting the stage to enhance your trading experience with the euro. Good luck! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4