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DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. * Oil tankers are reportedly beginning to jam up the Black Sea with 28 tankers waiting to be checked for having proper insurance by Turkish officials . This will likely put upward pressure on the price of oil in the near/medium term. Investors appear to be anticipating a 50bps rate hike by the FOMC on 12/14, which will be their last rate hike announcement until February 1st 2023. Interestingly, investors appear to be equating a slowing in rate hike increases with a lowering of the terminal FFR, which is unlikely to be true; Federal Reserve staff/member consensus is currently projecting a 5%-5.5% terminal funds rate to be achieved by mid-2023, the FFR is currently at 3.75%-4%. So going forward, 50bps on 12/14/22 brings it to 4.25%-4.5%, another hypothetical 50bps on 02/01/23 would bring it to 4.75%-5%, another hypothetical 25bps on 03/16/23 would bring it to 5%-5.25% and then a last hypothetical 25bps on 05/04/23 would bring it to 5.25%-5.5%. This all assumes that Russia doesn't continue to escalate the war and that supply chains reach a newfound stability/order; a somewhat unrealistic assumption at the moment. US Equities, US Equity Futures, US Treasurys, Cryptos, Metals, Natural Gas, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, N100 are up. DXY, VIX, JPYUSD, NI225 and Oil are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently trending down at $104.80 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$105.80, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 36 after being rejected by 39 resistance for the third time since 11/21/22, the next support (minor) is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends down at 58 after getting rejected by 67 resistance, if it falls below 56 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at 45.65. MACD remains barely bullish for a second consecutive day as it trends sideways just below -1.21 support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and reestablish support at the 200MA (~$105.80) , the next likely target is a retest of $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 as support for the first time since February 2022 which would coincide with $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.80 .
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. *Cryptos and Commodities markets are signaling a bullish open to a week of mute economic data before CPI on 12/13 and the last FFR hike announcement of 2022 on 12/14. More volatility is to be expected with increased supply chain disruptions due to reduced exports from China weighing on Big Tech ( Apple in particular ). While certain major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are loosening Covid restrictions in effort to quell protests and reinvigorate dampening domestic demand. A price cap imposed by the G7 + Australia on Russian oil took effect today, the $60/barrel price cap applies to any third-party countries who intend to use G7 or EU tankers, insurance companies or credit institutions to ship Russian oil . Russia responded by saying they would cut production while OPEC+ reiterated their commitment to a 2m output reduction until 2023 . This will likely push the price of oil higher. Ukraine has also mentioned that Russia hasn't launched any large missile offensives in the past two weeks and that they are likely gearing up for another significant strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in attempt to break Ukrainian citizens down during the winter. Commodities, Cryptos, US Treasurys, HSI, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are up. DXY, US Equity Futures, N100, NI225 and JPYUSD are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price has broken below the 200MA at $105.57 as support and is currently trending down at $104.22 as it approaches $103.15 support which coincides with the uptrend line from May 2021. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.83, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 32, the next support is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down slightly at -1.45 as it breaks below -1.21, the next support is at -1.66. ADX is currently trending up at 30 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.60 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $103.15 support which would coincide with the uptrend line from May 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.60.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
The Sellers Just Took The Dollar Lower The Dollar Index(DXY) reached new lows last week. Following the new low a few major currencies soared bullishly(AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, and EURUSD) creating new highs which can be of great benefit to major currency pair traders this month. Going into the week the dollar could pullback to 105.750 before decreasing again creating a new low. This could be a trend trading play for short-term swing traders the next couple of weeks. Currencies To Watch Australian Dollar/United States Dollar (AUDUSD) , New Zealand Dollar/United States Dollar (NZDUSD) , Great Britain Pound/United States Dollar (GBPUSD) , European Euro/United States Dollar (EURUSD) if price pulls back for continued buys. A bearish long-term sell-off of $13.50 could become a 2023 target. Welp, my trading friends, I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Follow me for updates and more. Safe trading this week. Shaquan
TVC:DXYShort
by ShaquanLopez
BTC LONG BREAKDOWNHELLO TRADERS, IM HERE WITH BTC/USDT LONG TODAY !! Very slow London session today. All eyes are on the US data being posted this afternoon. Strong data could increase the FED’s decision of a slower pace of recovery, also affecting the price of the dollar. Today, I would definitely look for long positions on BTC and ETH that could confirm the current uptrend. If BTC goes below $1710-20 today it will not sustain the current trend and will be a washout to around $16875 I will keep you informde, SEE YOU SOON
Long
by Crypto-Frantisek
FOLLOW THE DXYThe markets are heavily influenced by what the Dollar aka DXY is doing. When the DXY is soaring going UP US BASE pairs go down. When the DXY is going down US base pairs go up. Simple as 123. When you study the DXY and begin to chart it and learn how it moves it will give you the best overall objective view on what the markets will do especially US BASE PAIRS. In this DXY chart mark up on the weekly we can see the DXY is cleaning all liquidity and headed toward support around 103.400. This will cause the markets to go HIGHER next month. The markets will experience one last rally NORTH then come crashing down beginning of 2024. Today's STOP HUNT was a big clue that the markets want to continue BULLISH. Fundamentally this also is in confluence with inflation coming down. Thus the dollar will continue to drop. But once the DXY hits those support levels and begins to rebound the markets will begin to tank and we will be BEARISH throughout the 1st half of 2024. I urge you to study the DXY and watch how the markets correspond to it. Lastly as always: Never over leverage. Have patience. Trust your analysis and give the markets time to fall into the script. And have fun! I AM PRO TRADING MADE SIMPLE. Master Sensi of #SniperGang EVERYBODY EAT$
TVC:DXYShort
by Master-Jedi-Trader
1
DXY MOVE NEXT WEEK The dollar is still resisting the rise and it has signs of weakness, and I expect the next movement to be downward, especially with the somewhat lower inflation and the comments of the Monetary Policy Committee from the Federal Reserve members to reduce interest rates on the US dollar during the coming months. We wait and see what next week has in store for us. What do you think of the strength of the dollar currently? Is it subject to more collapses, or will it have a word next week that contradicts all expectations? The four golden rules of trading 1 Don't be greedy 2 Always use stop loss 3 Never add other positions to the losing positions 4 Use a suitable lot for your account ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
TVC:DXYShort
by zaidhatem