Dxyforecast
Wave 5 coming for the DXY?All eyes are on the fed's meeting next week. If they mention anything about increasing interest rates at a faster pace or with higher frequency, the market will get more jittery. My guess is this hawkish bear stance is almost coming to an end and the risk on will pamp once the interest rates hikes actually kick in. For now I'm bullish on the dollar, it should see some resistance at around the 96.1 level, find some consolidation and it's off for the wave 5.
DXY SetupDXY is trading in a short term tentative bearish parallel channel. Two senarios can play here
1. Bears Control - DXY take a hit from parallel channel and drop to support level.
2. Bulls Control - Price break sharply above the parallel channel and meet its recent high.
Trade your levels accordingly.
Dollar Index (DXY) | Small correction♻️Hello traders, Dollar Index ( DXY ) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe.
In the wave counting done in higher times, a leading trend is formed and from this trend, waves 4 and 5 remain.
Wave 4 was originally intended as a flat, but wave c, which we identified in the count now, did not look like a leader, and we assumed it would be a zigzag triple.
So the count has changed to triangle and from this triangle the waves a, b and c are complete and now we are inside the wave d.
From wave d, wave a continues to form, and from wave a, waves 1, 2, and 3 have ended, and now the beginning of wave 4 is confirmed by breaking the bottom of the orange channel.
Wave 4 will probably not be as deep as Wave 2 and will be moderately temporal.
According to the current structures, it is probable that wave 4 will end in a zigzag pattern around Fibo 0.38 to Fibo 0.50, or in other words, around the price of 94,000, and in the following we will examine the trend of the next movements.
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DXY- 95.50 is now resistanceAfter consolidating around 6 weeks in a 1.5 points range, last week DXY has fallen under support giving us a strong bearish signal.
This drop was stopped by the horizontal 94.50 support and how the index is searching for direction.
The incapacity to stay above 94.50 support will be very bad for USD confirming a false break and a lower high in place on the longer time view and also opening the door for losses towards 90 zone.
On the other hand, if bulls manage to drive the price back above 95.50 we will have the confirmation for a trend change for USD and we can expect continuation to 100.
A good strategy can be to trade the range for USD pairs till clarification.
DXY Analysis 16/1/2022 1hrLooking at the DXY here for Monday's open and a is said in my last post it looks exhausted. I am ideally looking for a double top here but I think a test of this yellow line, there is so much liquidity there it would make tons of sense. I would love to see it get taken out straight away just to see a bearish week ahead for dollar pairs because there will be some huge plays to make.
so either M pattern forming here for a short term downside move. before seeing a test of the yellow line or we will see continuation upwards to the yellow line before price coming back down. my green line below are really strong levels of support so expect price to eventually hit these levels perfect short on the break of these levels and probably a nice recovery bounce long scalp position from them aswell.
overall not looking good, kind of in the position of short term retrace catch the liquidity and continue down or we will see downwards momentum from the open tomorrow. if we go up I don't think it will be for long I am looking for nice short entries on dollar pairs and my earlier post was stating I have a long set on eurusd so lets see what happens.
DXY Hello traders,
starting this week I will start doing my weekly analyzes for the year 2022! I wish you a happy and fulfilling New Year
as I said on last weeks ..DXY still keeps the premises of forming a pattern that it has been following since May 2020!
Just like I told you, DXY is in a very difficult area and even if it can force you and reach the 97480 area ... I will look for SELL in the next period
THIS WEEK... as I said in my last analysis ... I will look for SELL per DXY up to around 94,500 because as we show you towards the end of 2021 I noticed a pattern that has formed since June 2020!
indeed, DXY went down to the mentioned area from where I will wait for a range and a descent to the Fibonacci 618 and then ... UP AGAIN!!
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Wave 4 correction looks complete for the DXY.The DXY broke back down into the channel and is now testing the middle band of the channel. This should be the end of the wave 4 correction and we should see more upside to come for the dollar index. We should see some choppiness in the coming weeks before a break up farther to break the top and for the final wave 5. This final wave should hit the 99 price levels.
BULL CASE
This could be the bottom if price does not break the low formed at 94.6. We will get in on the correction when RSI hits 5 on the 4hr, place a SL on 94.6 and ride it all the way to 99.
BEAR CASE
If 95.6 fails to hold, we could be seeing a deeper wave 4 correction and this could bring us all the way down to 93.1. However, we think this is unlikely unless the fed announces major changes to their taper plans.
January Forecast - Continue the rally ?Technically, DXY is still in bullish momentum. As long as the price stays above the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, I reckon DXY will give one more push to visit 97.7. However, a price breakout and close below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement indicate that DXY will fall deeper to retest the 50% Fib.
What we know so far, Powell signals rate hikes and balance sheet runoff, but yields hold steady, CPI 0.5% and Core CPI 0.6%, U.S. jobless claims rise by 23,000 to 230,000.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below 38.20% Fibonacci retracement
Catalyst:
- U.S. Sales data
- Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment claims
USD- The REAL moment of truth!Since May's 2021 low, the Dollar Index was very bullish and the price has risen around 8%, but more importantly, has broken above 95 zone very important resistance.
After this important break, the price consolidated for one and a half months, but the price lacked continuation and, instead, has broken this consolidation to the downside.
At this moment we can't say out loud "reversal", but there are a lot of red flags coming with this development.
Technically the index is sitting on confluence support now and the trend remains up so far.
However, a clear break under this confluence support would be extremely bearish for USD with the confirmation of a false break and more importantly a lower high in place.
If this is the case, Dxy can drop and revisit the 90 zone if not even further
DXYThe weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a weakly bullish near-pin candlestick last week, after previously rejecting the resistance level identified at 12257 three weeks ago. Note how this key resistance level has held again – in fact, it held just after the FOMC release some weeks ago when it was tested, which may be a bearish sign. While this decline is not enough to invalidate the long-term trend (the price is still well above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago), it is very notable that there is clearly strong resistance here, which is having impact. This suggests that despite the long-term bullish trend, we may now have experienced a major bearish reversal. However, it is also worth noting that the price is now very close to a major support level at 12150 which continues to hold, so we may be seeing a consolidation between 12150 and 12257.
Overall, I would not look towards the USD as a key driver for any trades over the coming week.
DXY Jan 2021 PA and Divergence with Time Speculationas we had analyzed this index earlier in lower time frames (240,D), we are getting more confluences or trend reversal even in the higher time frames of weekly.
we can see the price has reached one of its significant support zones and it is diverging with MACD and Its Histogram so forming a Bullish Divergence, which is the sign of trend reversal and we may have more confirmation as Price Action analysis also show that.
the TP zone has been Specified by Fibonacci retracement levels and Fibonacci Time base tools.
we may have some range and Accumulation at the same Support zone which the price is Currently located or instant trend reversal as USA Administration policies are also changing Due to the presidential Elections or if Washington faces more riot and chaos so does the index fall are reaches the heavy Support zone (Green Box)
we can think of shorting the USD Quote Currency Pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD...
and long the USD Base Currency Instruments like USDJPY...
what do you think about it?
Buy rumor sell news. DXY consolidating for another push up.The DXY has been trading a in a range for the most of Q4 2021. We are expecting a fake out of the range to the downside before one last Wave 5 to the upside. This will likely come before the Fed ends their taper March 2022 and create a buy the rumour sell the news kinda event once they start their rate hike increase.
U.S. Dollar IndexThe weekly price chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index printed a bearish candlestick last week, after previously rejecting the resistance level identified at 12257 two weeks ago. Note how this key resistance level has held again – in fact it held just after the FOMC release some weeks ago when it was tested, which is possibly a bearish sign. While this continued decline is not enough to invalidate the long-term trend (the price is well above its levels from 3 and 6 months ago), it is very notable that there is clearly strong resistance here, which is having impact. This suggests that despite the long-term bullish trend, we may now have experienced a major bearish reversal. However, it is also worth noting that the price is now very close to a major support level at 12150.
Overall, I would not look towards the USD as a key driver for any trades over the coming week. For a while, and possible for the entire coming week, there will likely be momentum against the US Dollar, although the Japanese Yen remains considerably weaker.