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Dxyanalysis

DXY - Fed Chairman: 'Inflation is still too high'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that although inflation has cooled, the Fed remains committed to achieving its 2% target. In a speech in New York on October 19, Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that tightening policy had brought inflation back under control, but stressed that the Fed must remain cautious in pursuing its goals. . “Inflation remains too high. A few months of positive statistics are just the beginning of giving us confidence that inflation will return to target. But it remains to be seen how long these positive numbers will last, or how inflation will fare in the coming quarters. I don't know yet whether that will happen." He reiterated that Fed officials are "unanimously committed to bringing inflation down to 2%." The speech raises questions about the Fed's future policy after a series of consecutive interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, and the current interest rate is 5.25%. This is the highest level in 22 years. However, Chairman Powell believes that current interest rates are not too high. "Are the guidelines too strict? I don't think so," he said, but acknowledged that "rising interest rates are making things difficult for everyone." The Fed also highlighted recent good progress on its goals. The inflation rate as of September was 3.7%, a significant drop from over 9% in the middle of last year. "The latest figures show progress on both our goals of maximum employment and price stability. The economy remains in very good shape." But the comments came on the same day as reports showed the number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week was the lowest since the start of the year. This indicates that the labor market is tightening, which could put upward pressure on inflation. In recent days, a number of Fed officials have said the Fed may temporarily pause rate hikes. Even the most pro-tightening members expect the Fed to wait for further economic impact from its last rate hike. The market now expects the Fed to halt rate hikes, at least for now. The question is when will they start cutting interest rates? “If the environment remains risky and uncertain, we will be more cautious. The Fed will make decisions based on upcoming data, prospects and risks,” Powell said.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
All eyes are on the Fed's keynote speech Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a major policy speech on October 19th. The aim is to convince the market that the relevant central banks will continue to keep the inflation regime in check, but perhaps not, and that there will be some "easing" going forward. The first monetary policy plan was submitted to the New York Economic Club as the U.S. economy faces many pressing issues. Inflation has improved recently, but U.S. Treasury yields are rising, sending mixed signals about the direction of monetary policy. While most markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, they still expect Powell to confirm and clarify officials' views on the current situation and long-term trends. Luke Tilley, chief economist at financial services firm Wilmington Trust, said Chief Executive Officer Powell continues to talk about inflation risks given the strength of the economy and unexpected consumer spending in the third quarter. I predict that. Essentially, chief economist Tilley expects Powell's message to be divided into three parts. First, the Fed had to raise rates quickly, and they did. Next, the Fed needs to set a maximum interest rate, which is at the heart of the debate. And finally, we need to figure out how long interest rates need to stay at this high level to bring inflation down to our 2% target level.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
DXY (dollar)Hello dear traders I think we are nearing the end of the rising wave... Is it time for correction? There are 2 scenarios to start price correction with tecnical and fibou extention and there are many reasons for fundamental : In a recent tweet, Kiyosaki sounded the alarm bells, pointing to a conversation he had during a podcast with journalist Dr. Nomi Prins, who has delivered a simple yet impactful message: "Get money out of banks." Did a pod cast with Dr. Nomi Prins. She is a Fed insider author of Collusion & her latest book Permanent Distortion. Her message is simple, get money out of banks. She reports FDIC has over 725 banks on watch list. Be wise. Be smart. Stay ahead of crashing banks — Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) September 28, 2023 Kiyosaki's concern stems from the alarming Prins' revelation that the FDIC is monitoring over 725 banks, hinting at potential instability within the banking sector. good luck
TVC:DXYShort
by mehdi_kb
DXY - The US dollar index is showing signs of slowing downEconomists said the Fed had completed its monetary tightening cycle, reducing the chances of the U.S. going into recession. In the Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey, economists and business leaders lowered the odds of the U.S. going into recession next year from an average of 54% in July to a more optimistic 48%. This is the first time since the middle of last year that the probability has fallen below 50%. He mainly attributes his optimism to three factors. Inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, the job market is strong, and economic growth is well above expectations. The survey was conducted October 6-11 among 65 economists. Doug Porter and Scott Anderson, economists at BMO, say the odds of the U.S. going into recession continue to decline as the banking sector crisis eases and the labor market and incomes recover strongly. Rising real income supported consumption.
TVC:DXY
by TheLeader_WOLF
DXY HOW I LOOK AT THIS CHART The last two analyzes that I will mark below showed that I was bearish below the weekly level. After that, a bullish divergence appeared and the shorts were manipulated. Therefore, this zone was retested and if it is only 1 hour of the saint, we got a strong reaction. Zones that I watch, below the weekly level 106 - bearish, the last price for me. Above closing if possible daily 106.7 for me the door is open for 108 and the deviation is not yet confirmed. Below, see my predictions since the beginning of this manipulation
TVC:DXY
by learnfromfailure
Any move for DXY todayGold prices fell on Monday, but reversed after rising safe-haven demand led to a series of strong gains in the yellow metal as attention remained focused on the potential impact of the crisis. War between Israel and Hamas. The yellow metal saw some profit-taking after rising more than 5% last week as the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war sent investors to safe havens. Markets are now focused on whether the conflict between Israel and Hamas will spread to the Middle East as Israel prepares for a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. Prospects of rising US interest rates limit gold's appeal Better-than-expected U.S. inflation data released last week signaled continued tightening by the Federal Reserve, and interest rates are likely to remain high for an extended period of time. This view has weighed heavily on gold prices over the past year, and with US interest rates remaining high, any significant price gains for the yellow metal are likely to be limited. Gold has seen some significant gains due to demand as a safe-haven asset, but primarily the dollar has remained the safe-haven asset of choice. Capital inflows into the dollar pushed it near a 10-month high last week. Rising interest rates are bad for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. This thinking has capped the yellow metal's strong rally, even as deteriorating global economic conditions have increased demand for safe-haven assets.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
How is the USD when the Middle East is"on the edge of the abyss"At least 30 US citizens died in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict According to CNN, on October 15 local time, a US State Department official said at least 30 US citizens were killed in the conflict between Palestinians and Israel. The official said the United States is "cooperating with the Israeli government on all aspects of the hostage crisis, including sharing intelligence and deploying experts from across the U.S. government to advise Israeli government regarding hostage rescue efforts." The US expressed concern about the risk of war between Israel and Hamas spreading to the region and the possibility of Iran directly participating in the conflict. Iran, a power in the Middle East, has provided much support to Hamas. Iran also supports Hezbollah, an armed Muslim force in Lebanon that is threatening to open a "second front" targeting Israel. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on October 14 announced the deployment of a second aircraft carrier "to prevent hostile actions against Israel or any attempt to expand this war after the attack by Hamas." ". The Iranian delegation to the United Nations on the same day warned that the Hamas-Israel conflict would escalate beyond control and "cause far-reaching consequences".
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
DXY 4HR Analysis - No Sign of a Reversal! Bull Channel ContinuesDXY refused to fall below 4HR 200EMA support last week and had a fantastic bounce to the upside. This bounce solidified the current bull channel we are in, with no sign of a reversal in sight. There is currently a gap between 106.672 and 109.000, which is the next weekly resistance zone noted from July 2022. How do we trade this? Probability shows that breakouts are roughly 10% of price action on the charts. Until we see a bear breakout of this channel, we should remain long. Trade Strategies: Swinging For a swing trade, long it if the price action is in the bottom 20% of this channel and place your stop loss a few pips below the 4HR 200EMA. This gives you at least a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio where you can take partial or complete profits (depending on your strategy). I placed an example long in this chart, an opportunity that has already passed. Scalping You can also scalp your way to victory, but this requires you to lower your reward and increase your risk to gain probability of a profit. The proper stop of the 4HR chart is below the 200EMA or at least, below the bull channel bottom by a handful of PIPs. The further away you enter from that stop, the smaller your position size should be such that your total loss is the same as your 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio. The Math If we're applying the 2% rule in trading, meaning you cannot lose more than 2% of your total account equity on a single trade and your total equity is $10,000, then your maximum allowed loss is $200. Your position size should always be relative to your maximum loss which is determined by where your stop loss is placed. This means a scalp at a 2:1 Risk/Reward ratio provides a profit of $100 at risk of losing $200. In a bull channel, the probability is on your side. If you took 10 trades scalping and won 8 out of 10 trades using this math, you would be up $400. Using the Swing strategy, your probability is lower at the bottom of the channel, but your potential reward is greater, and your risk is lower($200 Reward and $100 Risk). If you won 5 out of 10 trades, you would be up $500. As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades, and I hope this information was helpful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXYLong
by TraderEngineering
⚠️DXY will Go Down again⏰(15-Min)⏰⚠️DXY Index is running near the Uptrend line and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. According to the theory of Elliott waves , the DXY index has succeeded in completing its 5 ascending waves near the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks. 🔔I expect the DXY Index to trend lower in the coming hours and at least go down to the 🟢 Support zone($106.330_$106.160) 🟢. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 15-minute time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYShort
by pejman_zwin
11
💸DXY Index💸 will Go Up by Falling Wedge Pattern⏰(1-Hour)⏰✅The DXY Index has completed a Falling Wedge Pattern in the 🟢Heavy Support zone($105.80_$104.530)🟢 and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two consecutive valleys . 🔔I expect the DXY Index will go UP after breaking the upper line of the Falling Wedge Pattern to the 🔴 Resistance zone 🔴. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 1-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
17
The dollar suddenly increased after favorable news for America'sThe Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, but inflation remains well above target and U.S. central bank officials are taking more aggressive action than in the past. This is thought to be due to a lack of monetary policy adjustment. When Federal Reserve officials say their long-term inflation target is 2%, they are referring to the percentage growth in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) compared to the same period last year. The more popular and often cited inflation figure is the year-over-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In fact, from May 2023 to the present, the six-month Treasury yield has been consistently above 5.3% and even above 5.5%. Additionally, approximately $1 trillion has been withdrawn from the reverse repo facility since May. In other words, the U.S. federal government is pumping trillions of dollars previously siphoned out of the financial system by the Fed back into the economy through bonds with attractive yields. The higher the yield, the more money flows into the financial system. This is one of the strange phenomena in the fight against inflation. The clearest evidence is that M2 money supply fell to a two-year low in April 2023, then stopped declining and even increased slightly in the following four months. Without a reduction in the money supply, it will be difficult to reduce inflation. The Fed tried to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates and withdrawing money, while the U.S. government increased debt and injected more money into the economy to cover budget deficits. No matter how strong your hands are, you cannot clap loudly. No matter how hard the Fed tries, it will be difficult to control inflation if monetary policy runs counter to monetary policy.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
DXY still shows no signs of breaking out of the trendlineThere has been little change in the market since the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting were released in September. This highlighted concerns about U.S. economic growth and caused the Fed to become cautious about raising interest rates. Dallas Fed President Rory Logan and Fed Director Christopher Waller have argued that rising U.S. Treasury yields in recent months could prompt the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. Waller said on October 11 that higher market interest rates could help the Fed control inflation and allow policymakers to consider whether further rate hikes are necessary. "Overall, the minutes indicate that Fed officials are increasingly concerned about recession risks to the U.S. economy," said Carl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Kopay in Toronto. The recent weakness in the US dollar is due to a decline in US Treasury yields, with bond prices rising due to the Fed's "loose" stance on future interest rate hikes. Investors are now awaiting the release of the main inflation report today, October 12th, for further guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Additionally, the market is closely monitoring the conflict between Israel and the Islamic organization Hamas. Conversely, the euro rose to $1.0634, its highest level since September 25th. Meanwhile, the pound rose to a three-week high of $1.2337. Dutch central bank board member Klaas Nott said on October 11 that the ECB has made "important progress" in bringing inflation down to its target level, but there is still a long way to go and rules out the possibility of inflation rising. He said he could not. Interest rates may rise further in the future.
TVC:DXYShort
by TheLeader_WOLF
DXY Index will Go Down to 🟢Heavy Support zone🟢(1-Hour)⏰✅The DXY index managed to break the Uptrend line and 🟢 Support zone 🟢. 💫Currently, DXY reacted well to the Resistance line and formed a 💫Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern💫 near this line in the 1-hour time frame ⏰. 🔔I expect the DXY to trend lower in the coming hours , enter the 🟢 Heavy Support zone 🟢, and fall to at least the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 1-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYShort
by pejman_zwin
27