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Dxyanalysis

DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 103.400 back down!As the dollar has been consolidating in the past week, opportunities near the current price are limited. However, my nearest Point of Interest (POI) is a supply zone on the 14-hour chart. I am looking to capitalize on this by selling to continue the bearish trend observed in the dollar index. I'll be patiently waiting for a breakout from this range, aiming to fill the imbalances above and eventually reach our identified supply zone. On the flip side, if price breaks below the consolidation, it could tap into a demand zone, sweeping liquidity beneath the range. In this scenario, I anticipate a bullish reaction, possibly a temporary move to the upside before eventually targeting our supply zone. Confluences for Dollar sells are as follows: - Overall temporary trend for this pair is bearish so this idea aligns with that bias. - Bullish pressure is now getting exhausted as you can see from the ranging price action - Price has left imbalances just below the supply that needs to get filled, validating our POI. - There is lots of liquidity to the downside that needs to be taken. - Price is due for a pullback to enter a level of supply if price wants to keep dropping lower. P.S. If price unfolds in a manner similar to how EURUSD is behaving, I will patiently await a breakout from this area. Subsequently, I will assess its behaviour and adapt my approach based on the information the market presents. Have a great week ahead traders!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
USD's Uncertain Horizon: Will the Dollar Weather Global Changes?Introduction: In this revised analysis of the DXY, we explore a multi-layered Elliott Wave structure comprising three main waves – blue, orange, and red – and examine their interactions within different corrective channels. This analysis also considers historical economic events and current global shifts to project potential future movements of the DXY. Wave Structures: Blue Wave: Represents the main wave in an ABC flat correction format. Orange Wave: A complex correction forming the blue Wave B. Red Wave: Another complex correction, creating the orange Wave B. Five Impulse Waves: Potentially part of or completing the Orange Wave C and Blue Wave B. Channels: Corrective Price Channel (1): Believed to hold the true value of the DXY. Further explanation will follow. Corrective Price Channel (2): Encompassing the red correction wave. Termination Channel: Contains the five impulse waves and is expected to be breached during the current DXY correction. Wave Dynamics and Historical Context: Post-Nixon Shock Movement: Following the Nixon shock, the DXY fell to around 80, completing the Blue Wave A. Sharp Rise to 164: Initially thought to be Blue Wave B, but I realize that naming such a significant and steep rise as a B wave might not align with conventional EWT principles. Typically, B waves are corrective and less dynamic compared to impulse waves, therefor I consider it as the first leg of the orange wave and labeled orange A Subsequent Sharp Decline: The fall to around 78 is labeled Red Wave A for the same reason. Rise to 121: This phase represents a complex correction that forms the Red Wave B, following a WXY pattern: * W: Manifests as a flat correction. * X: A simple correction. * Y: Takes the form of a Zigzag, which is more clearly visible in the smaller 1M Frame. Decline to 70: A sharp drop in a Zigzag pattern (seen in the 1M Frame), completing the Red Wave C and the Orange Wave B, notably ending behind the start of Orange Wave A. Current Movements and Future Scenarios: Rise to 114: Characterized by a shallow trend angle, suggesting it's a corrective wave. Ongoing Correction: Following the five impulse waves, based on Kennedy Channels Theory, the DXY is expected to break the Termination Channel, potentially descending to the 93-87 area. Scenario 1: Continuation of the Decline Description: If the DXY continues its downward trajectory, it would indicate that the previous impulse wave forms the final leg of the Orange Wave, which is in the form of a running flat. Impact on Wave Structures: This movement also completes the Blue Wave B simultaneously. Projection: Following this path, we would move towards completing the Blue Wave C, potentially reaching around 73. Analysis Viewpoint: This scenario aligns well with the Elliott Wave analysis, culminating in a regular flat correction for the DXY. Scenario 2: Rebound and New Impulse Waves Description: Should the DXY rebound from the current area and initiate a new series of 5 impulse waves, it would suggest that the Orange Wave C is developing in a Zigzag pattern. Expected Range: The completion of this pattern is projected to be in the 125-131 area. Further Classification: In this case, the Orange Wave would be categorized as WXY, forming the Blue Wave B behind the start of Blue Wave A. Implication: This would predominantly characterize the Blue Wave as an extended flat correction, potentially driving the DXY down to the 70 level, and possibly even lower to around 65 (corresponding to the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci levels). Likelihood: From my personal standpoint, this scenario appears to be the more probable outcome, with reasons for this view to be elaborated in the following section. Broader Perspective: Why is Corrective Price Channel (1) Considered the Real DXY Value? The question of the real value of the DXY post-Nixon shock is intriguing. Following this event, the US dollar ceased to derive its value from gold, marking a transition to what can be considered its true value. This shift turned the dollar into a piece of paper whose worth is determined by public perception, not unlike the way Bitcoin is valued today. During this time, the technology used to print the dollar was regarded as cutting-edge, much like computers that produce Bitcoin. When the DXY fell to around 80, Ronald Reagan's administration implemented expansionary fiscal policies and dramatically increased interest rates. Most countries were heavily reliant on the dollar at this time and had limited options for response, which led to the sharp green rise in the DXY, forming what I refer to as the orange A wave. The subsequent Plaza Accord saw the US and G7 countries take concerted steps to devalue the dollar, intending to bring it back to what was considered its natural level. This agreement played a significant role in reversing the previous sharp increase. As a result, I view the movement above Corrective Price Channel (1) as a consequence of extreme policy measures rather than a genuine market movement. These policies led to an artificial inflation and then deflation of the dollar's value within the channel, distorting its true market representation. Why I Believe Scenario 2 is More Likely to Happen: My belief in the likelihood of Scenario 2 stems from the concept embodied by the 'BRICS Group.' It's not just the group itself, but the underlying idea it represents that's pivotal. This notion reflects a growing weariness among many nations over the United States' dominance in the global economy, particularly through its control of monetary movements via the dollar. Increasingly, these countries are convinced of the need to break free from this American economic influence. There's a rising trend of nations seeking to support their own currencies more robustly, fostering trade exchanges directly in their local currencies. This shift represents a significant move away from the long-standing norm of viewing the dollar as the primary benchmark for other currencies. By doing so, these countries aim to establish a more autonomous economic framework, less dependent on the fluctuations and policies of the US dollar. Of course, the shift away from the dollar's dominance won't be immediate, and the US is well aware of this. America has formulated strategic plans to counteract the BRICS group's initiatives. This strategy began with imposing successive sanctions on China to curb its economic growth, then moved to geopolitical maneuvering in Ukraine, aiming to engage Russia in a prolonged, draining conflict. A similar approach has been considered for China, involving potential conflicts surrounding Taiwan. However, recent developments in the Middle East have led to a significant shift in America's focus. Originally aiming to maintain its global economic supremacy, the US is now increasingly involved in conflicts that center around protecting Israel. This involvement has drawn the US deeper into long-term, complex wars. Notably, its military actions in Yemen and the distribution of forces across Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea region increase the difficulties of controlling this war. America's repeated use of its veto power to block ceasefires has further impacted its global standing. Once viewed as a moral and diplomatic leader, the US is now perceived differently on the world stage, a change I believe will affect its international image for an extended period. This evolving perception and the shifting focus of US foreign policy are likely to result in an increasing number of countries seriously considering breaking away from the dominance of the US dollar. This trend suggests a growing alignment with the principles of the BRICS group, even if countries do not formally join it. The goal is to escape the overbearing influence of America and the G7 on their economies. In response to this shift, the United States is unlikely to passively accept these changes. It's anticipated that America will attempt to implement financial policies similar to those used in the 1980s. These policies were designed to elevate the dollar's value and prevent significant declines. This approach is expected to lead to the emergence of five new waves in the dollar's valuation, marking the final phase of this economic cycle. However, the global economic landscape of today is markedly different from that of the 1980s. Most countries now possess stronger economies, or at the very least, they have the capability to rely on their local economies for essential services. My analysis indicates that when the DXY reaches around the 125-131 range, the dollar is projected to fall to levels between 70 and 65, thereafter moving within a sideway Waves in a maximum value of around 110, which is expected to gradually decrease over time. An important note is that America appears to be seeking alternative strategies to maintain economic control. One such strategy is the control of the cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by the Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin. This move suggests that America is preparing for scenarios where it may no longer be able to exert direct control over the dollar's value. Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult with financial experts before making any trading decisions.
TVC:DXY
by ahmadsaad83
DXY Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe DXY has exhibited a prolonged period of consolidation, while the higher time frame reveals a robust downtrend. In the video analysis, we observe notable price action, identifying a triple top with a spike above, potentially indicative of a stop run, suggesting the likelihood of continued downward movement. Additionally, the video explores the prospect of a break below the current range low, followed by a retest and subsequent failure, presenting a potential selling opportunity. It is crucial to emphasize that the information provided herein is not intended as financial advice.
TVC:DXYShort
by fxtraderanthony
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video, we take a close look at the Dollar Index (DXY) on higher timeframes to assess the prevailing bullish momentum and its potential implications for traders. We'll delve into market structure, price action, and explore a potential trade setup. Important Disclaimer: The information presented here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading carries inherent risk, and proper risk management is essential. Capital preservation remains paramount.
TVC:DXYLong
by fxtraderanthony
DXY to continue declineDXY started a recovery from 100.257 from the heavy decline due to the pause in the interest rate hikes back in December 13th, 2023. The index started to recover from 28th December and to 102.723 due to the positive news from the last Friday NFP fundamentals. Price was quickly knocked down by the negative news on the ISMs late Friday. DXY January candle has done a retracement unto the 61.8%-78.6% (EMA 20) of the December bearish candle. As a result of the retracement on the December candle, the DXY is expected to retest the weekly EMA 200 on the key level 100.500 and as at the ending of last Friday, price was resisted by the weekly resistance. On the Daily, the DXY index is expected to retest the EMA 200 at 101.706 and subsequently retest the key level 101.500 again. The important fundamentals this week are mainly the Thursday's Core CPI m/m and the Friday's PP1 m/m where the economists are projecting a negative news for the CPI. We need to keep an eagle eye on the news this week to make informed decisions.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AbeikuGlobal_FX
2
What should we expect from DXY Index by the end of 2023❗️❓🗺️👋Hi everyone (Reading time less than 3 minutes⏰) . 📚One of the most important Indices that we should have an analysis of is the DXY index because it has a direct impact on the Forex , Cryptocurrency , and stock and etc markets. So, in this post, I'm going to show you the 🗺️ Roadmap 🗺️ for DXY until at least the End of 2023 and Early 2024 . 💡I used the Monthly time frame and Elliott wave theory to display the DXY index roadmap better. 💡First of all, it is better to know that the DXY index has formed an Ascending Channel since 2008 and is moving in it. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , the DXY index has succeeded in completing its 5 impulsive waves in the ascending channel so that the 3rd wave was an extended wave . 🌊As a result, it seems that Corrective waves have started, and to confirm this, it is better to wait for the break of the lower line of the ascending channel. 🔔I expect the DXY to move between 🔴Heavy Resistance zone($107.62-$103.10)🔴 and 🟢Support zone($101.64-$99.58)🟢 by the end of 2023 and early 2024, and in mid-2024 , the DXY will begin to trend Down , and Financial markets will likely turn 🚀Green🚀 . DXY Index Analyze ( DXYUSD ), Monthly time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXY
by pejman_zwin
7
DXY Shorts from 102.400 Down towards 101.000The DXY forecast remains bearish in my view; however, there is a notable strong bullish retracement occurring. I perceive this retracement as temporary, as the price is retracing back to a premium supply level. I anticipate a distribution to take place in either the 1-hour supply zone I've identified or... Alternatively, if the price continues to climb higher, fully mitigating the imbalance, it may enter my preferred 14-hour supply zone, which previously caused a break of structure to the downside. Should the price decline without touching these two zones, I will then be on the lookout for a buying opportunity around 101.000. Confluences for DXY dollar sells are as follows: - Dollar is temporarily bearish due to the break of structures on the higher timeframe. - Currently price has reacted off a demand so I can expect bullish pressure to get exhausted. - Price is slowing down foreshadowing a potential wyckoff distribution to play out. - Lots of liquidity still left below in the form trend line liquidity and major imbalances. - Candlestick anatomy shows that price might have a bearish drop as its mitigated an imbalance above partially P.S. While my current stance is bearish in the market, this minor bullish retracement appears temporary, and I anticipate the price to resume its downward trajectory. However, considering the presence of numerous imbalances, I prefer to observe price movements before deciding on my course of action. Have a great trading week ahead guys!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
1
When Will Crypto/Equities top this Bull cycleMost of the asset we trade are traded against Dollar. So, to figure out when markets are going to peak out, we must look at DXY, which measures the strength of the dollar. In this post we will analyze the last bull/bear cycle and use that to predict what may happen in the current cycle. The Last Bull Cycle for equities/Crypto started when DXY topped out last time, which happened during Covid dump. The Last Bull Cycle ended and Bear Started when DXY Bottomed and Trend shifted to bull on Weekly marked by Weekly Break of Structure in November 2021. To figure out when Crypto/Equities will peak this cycle we will have figure out when will DXY bottom this cycle. I gave a full Wave Elliott wave count for DXY back in September last year predicting extended downtrend for DXY so far it has played out perfectly. Based on how PA has developed for DXY it looks like we are in corrective wave 4 of 5 waves down and final wave down is yet to come. The full wave count is posted here: I am confident that this is the fourth wave because the current bounce is not likely to be able to break structure on weekly as it did not happen from a significant source of Support or supply. To mark the bottom of DXY we need a weekly Break of structure I have highlighted that in the chart, we need a significant weekly close above 104.5 to mark change of trend which is unlikely to happen. Now let's use Wyckoff to further strengthen the argument that a final 5th wave down is yet to come we will use Wyckoff mode for that. Do you see the perfect match with model 1 Wyckoff Accumulation: Wyckoff Works like a charm on HTF, check out my Cardano prediction post in the description below where I predicted the bottom is 21 cents for Cardano using Wyckoff models. Now there are two weekly supply zones right below where DXY bounced from early last year which have the capacity to act as Springs for the next move up, the lower zone coincides with the lower trending of the parallel channel so highly likely that it marks the bottom for DXY, If not then DXY loses it multiyear uptrend and we are looking at a bull run of unimaginable proportion , but it very unlikely. Now even though these zones can mark the bottom for DXY, it doesn't mean Equities and Crypto will top immediately, notice in the last cycle, DXY spent quite some time at the lows before it broke weekly structure and that's what caused entire market to peak, and we started the bear run. So, it's possible it can happen in the similar fashion this time as well, or it can be an explosive move up, which is a real possibility because Wyckoff springs are very explosive, and if it causes weekly Break of structure that will be the top of the markets. With the current bounce being the wave 4 of the 5 wave down for DXY a correction is possible across the markets, notice in the chart I have highlighted in circle where we are in current cycle compared to last one, we are getting a bounce DXY right now just like we did last time in the middle of the bull run. This will cause turbulence in the markets and initiate a short-term correction, which aligns well with crypto as we all are expecting pre-halving dump like we have experienced in all previous cycles. Now we know at what level we are likely to bounce let's try to predict the timeline as to when we will see the bottom form on DXY. I have used Trend based fib time to predict the next pivot in DXY, it pulled from start of last bull run, we can see how perfectly all the pivots fall on the time fibs, so there no reason to think it won't do that next time as well. The next Pivot falls in May 2024. One can argue that DXY can to the upside and follow the red arrow in the chart below, but it's unlikely because of the reason discussed above. Now once it hits the pivot to the downside, we must monitor what it does. As mentioned above to mark the peak of bull cycle we need a weekly break of structure on DXY, whenever that happed after the pivot you know you need sell all and get out of the market without hesitation or short the market and make generational wealth over the course of year or 2. CAUTION: What's interesting to note here is, the next fib time date for DXY pivot coincides perfectly with the full length of the last bull cycle which was 84 weeks, if we measure 84 weeks since BTC and Equities bottomed this cycle it ends perfectly within few days of the next fib time pivot. So, it's possible the current bull run may be cut short, and we see an explosive move in DXY, A spring move like I mentioned above instead of slow grind up on DXY like it happened last time in previous cycle. Now don't be scared just yet, that all hope is lost for bulls if that happens, The Wyckoff accumulation model can fail and DXY doesn't make a significant move up and starts to drop after few months of up. The possibility of this happening is there but it's low, in the end we must watch DXY and when it gets there and see what happens.
TVC:DXY
by zakoraio
DXY: Morgan Stanley changes USD forecast to neutral following FeMorgan Stanley updated its outlook for the US dollar, moving to a neutral stance, a significant shift from its previous forecast of an 8% gain in the Dollar Spot Index in the fourth quarter. two of the year. The adjustment comes as a response to the Federal Reserve's recent dovishness and the resulting decline in Treasury yields. The bank recorded a slight decrease of 0.2% in the Dollar Spot Index, causing its currency strategy to be reevaluated. Due to evolving economic conditions, Morgan Stanley strategists have now advised clients to stay away from short positions in the eurodollar. Instead, they recommend shorting the euro against the yen, positioning for potential currency fluctuations in the current market environment. This guide shows a strategic pivot in forex trading, in line with the latest economic indicators and central bank policy direction.
TVC:DXYLong
by Chart_MasterPro
DXY SELL ON RATE HIKES !!!HELLO TRADERS, As i can see DXY DOLLAR had done a retrace after a long drop but still the downtrend is not finish yet ... so i can see a rejection here at this resistance zone so we are re enter on sell as we can yesterday FOMC MEETING show us a rate hike which is not good for Dollar & you can see geopolitical issue also around the world BRICK 70% country are supporting to Dump Dollar and trade in yuan also we can see wars escalating around the world which is not good for Dollar Fundamentally its a sell on DXY now lets see Technically whats going on charts its is showing us a clear view that after a drop its done on retrace and now its moving to daily Horizontal Support zone you can see our previous analysis we are selling DXY from 106.400 levels and now looking for more drop on DXY Friends its just an trade idea Kindly share your thoughts and views on DXY with us in Comment session we appreciate your love and support it help all of our trader community
TVC:DXYShort
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
DXY Analysis. Was that Bottom? Hello everyone. I want share my idea about dollar index price action. At 23 November i shared my idea where i said dollar was dead and it were going to fall and it happened ( I will link in that idea that post) In my last stop i said that price was my interesting price where we are now. Yesterday we had some aggressive buyers, they have good reaction at weekly LVL but will be that reaction sing of trend change? i think its sing of correction. we have here pretty bearish movement which broke lot of resistances which were strong, in my opinion long dollar is early, if it will have some strong reaction at daily resistance then we can say it was correction but lets see what will be trend from New Year. Here is second reason why i think that, US20 bond is still pretty bearish, their economy is not strong enough yet for rise dollar price but who knows, i short both in November ( i will link that analysis in this idea) For my idea i have some scenes. Scene 1 - price took buy orders at weekly support which was lot of and it had reaction after big fall but sellers is still strong and price still fall down. Scene 2 - price don't have enough seller, for that it testing daily resistance where seller will active, it will make correction and continue fall. Scene 3 - price took lot of strong buy orders, this weekly support zone was interesting also for hedge funds and for new year trend will change which will be sing for new Position signals. Always manage your risk and make your own research!!!
TVC:DXYShort
by elmakacho
DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 101.300 or 102.000My outlook for the dollar remains bearish, but it's currently in a bullish retracement phase triggered by the reaction at my identified 17hr demand (POI) from last week. I anticipate price to continue its upward movement to eventually reach a premium level. In this scenario, I'll be looking for selling opportunities around the 4hr supply zone or the 14hr supply at the top. While the 4hr supply is still a possibility, it's not the optimal choice for sells due to its location within a trend line that I anticipate being taken out. Instead, I foresee a reaction at the 14hr supply, located within the 0.786 Fibonacci range and having caused a break of structure. Therefore, I'll be patiently waiting for some form of distribution to unfold once the bullish pressure is exhausted. Confluences for DXY dollar sells are as follows: - Dollar is temporarily bearish due to the break of structures on the higher timeframe. - Currently price has reacted off a demand so I can expect bullish pressure to get exhausted. - Price is slowing down foreshadowing a potential wyckoff distribution to play out. - Lots of liquidity still left below in the form of equal lows and trend line liquidity. P.S. Although I am currently bearish on the market, my overall sentiment is bullish. The recent reaction off the 17hr demand might spark an upward rally. Additionally, there's a 9hr demand zone where I anticipate another bullish reaction. HAPPY NEW YEARS TO ALL OF YOU AND HOPE THIS YEAR BRING EVERYONE PROFITABILITY AND CONSISTENCY. LETS CATCH THESE PIPS!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
DXY Long term Analysis. "King Dollar" is dead!Hello Everyone i want share my idea about DXY price analysis. After big push up of dollar we saw some bearish momentum of dollar which is pretty clear, which i think made from us economy fall. couple of a week ago i published my idea about US20 Bond where i was bearish, because of 1 month chart RSI divergence and economical numbers. Today at dollar we have clear bearish movement which testing support zones but the strongest support we have at 101.250 LVL 1W support. if dollar will continue fall then i will wait reaction from that 1W support, if we will get some trend change moments then i will publish my idea where i will be bullish. Now i am bearish, my interesting price LVL will be 104.500 where we will see possible rejection from resistance. BE PATEINT!!! ALWAYS MAKE YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!
TVC:DXYShort
by elmakacho