short DollarAs we were looking for decline on the DXY 0.10% , bulls took over control. Here we go with my weekly analysis on the U.S. Dollar Index ;
A (orange)(closed) : Price clearly bounced on our bullish trendline . Blue area as been broken in the beginning of the week, my bearish bias was completely canceled. No break and no resistance, this direction bias is now closed.
A (blue) : Previously our plan C, I see the DXY 0.10% showing some significant strength signs;
Blue area as been broken which was our resistance. Next area to watch for a break through is the yellow one.
Price bounced on the bullish trendline .
A nice reverse head and shoulder is forming, looking for a break of the neckline.
Price found support right at the retest level after the trend line breakout, red area.
Support found on both 50(aqua) and 200(gray) exponential moving averages after a bullish crossover.
A nice regular bullish divergence also indicates a nice trend reversal, highlighted by the purple arrows on data and indicator window.
Target is 96.00, optimal trade entry area for shorting.
B (red) : Fake bullish move to the yellow area and by dropping back resulting as a price ranging.
Only price action can determine those bias, even none of them could occur.
Bias as changed for now but still bearish overall, I am currently looking for bullish move on this index, driving all USD based pairs.
Dollar strengh = USDXXX UP / XXXUSD DOWN
Dollar weak = XXXUSD UP / USDXXX DOWN
Dxy_short
Dollar index daily tf - bearish setup Dollar index broke a key monthly support level last month and is currently trading below this monthly resistance on bigger timeframes. In this setup, I see a bearish pull back on the daily time frame and a good time to buy other currencies and gold as they are all on their pull backs as well technically.
What's in store for USD in Q2... time to choose our side!Firstly congratulations to those who took shorts on the previous idea (please see attached), very well done for clearing all targets on the handle.
We are rolling with the dollar holding 100.xx post FED - we need to keep in sync with the dollhair to make our next few months a lot easier and it will separate the men from the boys, having a crystal clear map will be invaluable.
OK so with that in mind, lets draw our maps moving forward;
As long as strong prints on the macro front continue, then as will Trump's Honeymoon be extended with tax cuts being tracked like a hawk by smart money. The initial knee jerk rally is over as markets have begun to demand more since Trumpcare fell through.. In any event, there are many doors still open, if not tax cuts then we have huge infrastructure and if all else fails there is always defence (or "attack").
What we now need to track is the pullback we find ourselves in... there is plenty of room either side here, what I aim to do by publishing this idea is to start the discussion and place for us here to track and put in context over the next Q and current leg.
Our options are as follows;
a. BUY above 102.xx -> TP 109.xx
b. SELL below 98.xx -> TP 92.xx
c. sidelined, waiting for things to become clearer
d. No idea
DXY more downward pressureDXY has sold through an area or support at 95. For the trend to remain and reconfirm short, a retrace no stronger than 95.45 would be expected. Further selling down to the 95.60-94.20 zone for a short trend extension.
DISCLAIMER:
This is where I practice ideas and work on my trading techniques. This is not investment advice. Please note I am only providing my own trading information for insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal. Trade at your own risk.
This Alternate count is now my preferredHi All,
I've been looking at EUR, DXY, Cable, and Swissy for a while now and my counts are all pointing to USD falling. (Please review my previous posting) - This also tells me that the looney will be falling as well.
Revised count:
Wave 1 - From the top labelled as (c), A clear 5 wave impulse down
Wave 2 - Flat correction
Wave sub 1 of 3 - from the top labelled c, another clear 5 wave impulse down
Wave sub 2 of 3 - Flat correction
Elliot wave guideline: Both corrective flat wave 2 retraced to around 90% of the previous impulse - an indicator of a flat correction termination point.
Forecast wave - We should now see the beginning of a wave 3 to the downside
Let's see what the French Elections hold as the results could push the USD down (Finally)
Happy Trading
DXY UpdateOn the Last DXY post we followed the wedge and shorted this. we have now arrived at the bottom and I suspect that we will start climbing our way back to about 101 level or until we hit the falling trend line.
Long term it seems that this will be DXY last rise to the upside. failure to break above the wedge will result in a large decline.
POST ANY THOUGHTS.