DXY Above the 4H MA50 targeting the 1D MA50The US Dollar Index has now the opportunity to test the 4H MA50 as a Support, chaning the short term 4H technicals to neutral (RSI = 49.586, MACD = 0.050, ADX = 33.920). The last time this happened was early this month (January 4th). The 4H MA50 held and pushed DXY for a last peak and Lower High on the two month Channel Down over the 4H MA200. This time the 1D MA50 is trading inside the Channel. Our target is 103.500.
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Dollar Index Futures DX1!
DXY Don't lose sight of the big picture. Still bearish.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been somewhat consolidating lately in the past 2 weeks. Last time we warned that upon a pending Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, more pain would come:
It appears that we caught the exact high before a new round of selling on the USD. To maintain a broad perspective, it is useful now to look at the last two times it formed a 1D Death Cross. As you see the drop from the moment of the Death Cross until the bottom was fairly similar, -9.75% and -8.75%. An average drop of this, sets the target on the current Death Cross drop to around 96.000.
The 1W RSI offers a good perspective as to when the price hits the middle of this drop and that is when the RSI makes the first rebound after reaching the 30.000 oversold level. In those 2 past occurrences, it made one last rebound back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before dropping towards its bottom.
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DXY Straight to the 1W MA200 (98.000) is possibleDXY is trading much lower than the 1W MA50 and is unphazed by the 1W technicals that are quickly approaching an oversold state (RSI = 35.543, MACD = -0.830, ADX = 32.507). With the pattern that has been confirmed as a Head and Shoulders since the September peak, it is possible to see a straight continuation of the downtrend to at least the 1W MA200.
Since mid November we see a straight Channel Down leading the price to the imporant 101.260 Support (May 30th low). A similar bearish Channel while the RSI was that low on 1W was formed during the 2017 downtrend that hit the 1W MA200 with ease.
As a consequence, a breach of the 101.260 Support will be all the confirmation we need to extend our selling and target the 1W MA200 on the long term.
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DOLLAR INDEX Bearish long-term but short-term jump likely.The DXY is on a bearish day, making a 7month Low, after the U.S. CPI report matched the 6.5% forecast. With 1D technicals deep in red (RSI = 35.059, MACD = -0.730, ADX = 22.946), the 1D Death Cross last week (January 5th) and the Bearish Cross on the MACD, keep the trend bearish within the 2month Channel Down, targeting 101.260 (May 30th Low)
However, with the RSI hitting its Higher Lows (HL), the trend-line which has given short-term bounces within the Channel Down, we see more likely a quick jump to the top (or even marginally above it to the 1D MA50) of the Channel, before pursuing the lower target.
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DXY 1D Death Cross emerging. More pain to come.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is about to form a Death Cross pattern on the 1D time-frame for the first time in 2.5 years (since July 03 2020). This is technically a very bearish formation (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)) and should continue the long-term bearish trend, a long-term move we caught at the very top as you can see on our September analysis:
As the 1D MACD is losing out on its bullish momentum as long as the price gets rejected on the 1D MA200, it will continue to fill the lower Fibonacci retracement levels (from the May 25 2021 Low). As you see those Fib levels match almost perfectly the previous Resistance levels (green zones) during the uptrend. Even though the 0.5 Fib (102.220) is next, our point of interest is the 0.618 Fib (99.210) that could make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line)
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dxy, 12-12 updategood evenin',
wasn't too long ago when i called the top on the dxy.
all the dxy bull bro's were like, no way man its going to go up forever.
>okkk boomer, 😏
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so here's my take on what comes next.
theorizing a bit into the future here-
idea goes like: we correct down in 3 waves, then put in an equal sized leg to the upside into the 120~130 region in
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original post:
DXY Below the 1D MA200, 1st time since June 2021, targeting 100.It is no big secret that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on a strong bearish reversal. It is something we've been warning the community about since September when we caught the exact top on the Channel and called for a massive reversal:
What however appears to have confirmed the bearish extension is the fact that the DXY broke and closed below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Thursday, for the first time since June 17 2021. That alone is a very strong sell signal on the long-term, which as we outlined on previous analyses can target the 2.786 Fibonacci extension, which is a little over the 100.00 mark.
As you see, every Low since the September 28 top has been on a former Resistance Zone (green) and the November 15, November 28 ones hit the 1.786 Fib extension. The 2.786 Fib happens to ben just above also the Resistance Zone that made the March 07, 14 and 28 Highs.
On the short-term however, with the 1D RSI near the 30.000 oversold barrier, having formed a clear Support Zone since the November 11 Low, we might see a counter trend rebound to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance. Especially if the 1D RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line coming off the September 27 High.
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DXY Is King Dollar dead?Yes it is a catchy title but isn't far off from what is happening on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since October. This weekly chart shows the strong rejection on the late September Top, which was formed neatly on the Rising Resistance (Higher Highs line) that has been in effect since the November 2008 High.
That High along with the March 2015 formed similar patterns after their rejections: first sudden drop to the 1W MA50 (blue) and then structured 2 year decline supported by a declining level (Lower Lows). Notice that DXY's bottom, hence the best level to buy is when the weekly RSI makes a double bottom (more like either Lower Lows or Higher Lows). The second Low has been the most optimal entry to buy.
We are far from that scenario now and even though the 1W RSI has dropped dramatically, the USD holders can only hope at best for a rebound as the price is approaching the 1W MA50. Of course the price action doesn't necessarily need to repeat past patterns, but this 14 year Channel Up is definitely a pattern to consider.
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DXY Major bearish break-out ahead of 1D MA200 test!The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eventually made the bearish break-out we expected as it broke below the Bullish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since January 2022:
As you see, the break below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was almost on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone, was supporting this bullish pattern since June 16 2021! Naturally its break-out has been a major event and the price almost reached the next MA in line, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We now see the price rebounding and it shouldn't come as a surprise as it hit exactly the 1.785 (blue) Fibonacci extension from the last low. Also there is the (green Support Zone) to consider from the May 13 High.
As a result, we expect a rebound to test either the 1D MA100 or 1D MA50 as Resistances and accumulate more sellers. A closing below the 1D MA200, would be a bearish continuation for us, targeting the 101.300 (May 30 Low).
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DXY Approaching multiple Support levels but no confirmed buy yetThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been pulling back since the September 28 High. Technically it has been trading within a long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Today the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 15. With the 1D RSI approaching the 41.00 Support, which has formed 3 out of the 4 total Lows of the Megaphone, this is starting to align major markers for a long-term buy that targets the next .382 Fibonacci extension in line, the 5.382 at 118.00.
For us it would be best to enter after confirmation as the selling pressure from the bond yields is strong and that confirmation can be given after the MACD makes a Bullish Cross. Until then it would be best to stay on the sidelines. As you see the Megaphone's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) is considerably lower than then 1D MA50 this time.
We are only willing to sell if the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is slightly below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, giving us good tolerance levels hence a solid confirmation. In that case we will be targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Here is the deal with the USD...UP... within the next three weeks.
First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line).
Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed.
Third, the other set of technical indicators for money flow, and volume are also supporting the continued upside, with no indication of bearish divergence.
Finally, the weekly TD Sequential Sell Setup just completed (green box with black background), with a small kink... that the 8th and 9th candle highs are not higher than the 7th candle high. According to TD Sequential rules, we can expect that at some point in the next three candles (or so), the 7th candle high would be taken out and exceeded in an attempt to Perfect the TD Sequential Sell Setup.
So... expect the USD to end up in the range around the white ellipse.
Perhaps then we might see some real signs of the USD abating its bull run?
Note that with a massive bull run on the USD, markets are being affected badly, and money flow is unusually into the USD (exiting most other markets). Furthermore, the longer this stretches, the worse the unwinding becomes with commodities when the USD retraces. It is like an overstretched rubber band, and its dicey before we know who would release it first... the tension followed by the release of that tension. Oof...
DXY Can drop even lower. Buy and sell levels long-term.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been pulling back since the September 28 High. Technically it has been trading within a long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. As you see, the price is below the 4H MA50 (red trend-line), and since at least May 30, the Low is formed at least on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the level to enter if you are looking for a long-term buy that targets the next .382 Fibonacci extension in line, the 5.382 at 117.825. There is also the 62.20 1W RSI Support to consider before entering. Note that if the 4H MA50 breaks upwards first, it is a bullish break-out signal.
We are only willing to sell if the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is slightly below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone, giving us good tolerance levels hence a solid confirmation. In that case we will be targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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