DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 15/01/2024 (+ HTF)We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, it looks like we are moving corrective and that we have not started wave 5 yet.
DOW
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 12/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, it looks like we are moving corrective and that we have not started wave 5 yet.
Dow Jones H4 | Potential bullish breakoutDow Jones (US30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially break above this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 37,871.59 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 37,350.00 which is a level that sits under a pullback support.
Take profit is at 38,256.87 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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DJ30 H4 | Potential pullback before bullish bounceDJ30 could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 37,665.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Stop Loss: 37,247.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take Profit: 38,250.77
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
BTC EFT Update and US30 Analysis. Today's focus: US30
Pattern – Consolidation / ascending triangle pattern.
Support – 37,400
Resistance – 37,770
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update.
Crypto had a mainly higher but, in some cases, muted response to news that BTC ETFs will become a reality. We have run over some of the news and moves since yesterday.
The US30 is today's chart, and we are seeing a similar situation to what we discussed in yesterday's ETH update. ETH was one of the better-performing majors after the news hit yesterday.
The US30 sits in a continuation pattern that's inside a consolidation pattern. Buyer momentum remains firm today after yesterday's rally, and we are looking at tonight's CPI data. If CPI remains unchanged or surprises the downside, we will look for further upside on the US30. If it comes in hotter than expected, this could turn the price lower from resistance or above, depending on where price is later tonight.
US CPI data is due at 12:30 am ADET Friday.
Good trading.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 10/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing a finished WXY corrective structure. This could mean the start of a wave 5 up.
DOW JONES Correction has started. Where can it stop?Dow Jones (DJI) started a strong decline since our December 29 2023 sell call (see chart below), the strongest since the remarkable rally started on the October 29 bottom:
On today's analysis, we want to look into the same market dynamics and the pattern we drew 10 days ago but this time on the 1D time-frame. What stands out the most is that this time on the January 02 2024 High, the RSI peak that was made a few days back on December 19 2023 (hence the Bearish Divergence) was a (much) Higher High that the previous two (red arrows down) on the Higher Highs trend-line (July 26 2023 and April 13 2023), that was made on the vastly overbought level of 87.50 (highest since January 11 2018).
Our short-term target remains 36750, which represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Jan 02 High. The other feature on this 1D chart that stands out is the 38.50 1D RSI Support, which provided rebounds on May 25 2023 (long-term) and August 24 2023 (short-term). That RSI Support reveals where our first buy attempt should be. Price-wise that could be as low was the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (35100) of the October 27 Low. By the time it potentially makes contact with it, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) could be there as well.
A medium-term candidate is also a -4.50% range from the Jan 02 High, which would give us 36150 and is where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is headed right now.
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 09/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing a finished WXY corrective structure. This could mean the start of a wave 5 up.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 08/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing a potential WXY corrective structure.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 05/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing an ending impulse. The high could hold or alternatively, we might see a fifth wave to end the impulsive structure.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 04/01/2024 (+ HTF)We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, we are observing an ending impulse.
TARGET REACHED Dow Jones at 37,242 - Still bullishReverse Cup and Handle formed on Dow Jones.
The price broke up and since then has been rocketing to its first target at 37,242.
Now that it is the new year generally we can expect the January Effect to kick in with enhanced optimism and positive buying.
I don't like the USD looking to strengthen though, that might change the course.
RIght now I don't have a setup or pattern line up. SO we will just go with the momentum and trend.
Let's see if we can hit 40,000.
DOW JONES: Under the 4H MA50 for the first time in 2 months.Dow Jones has turned neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.920, MACD = 42.900, ADX = 19.367) as today it crossed under the 4H MA50 for the first time since November 1st. Even though the price remains inside the two month Channel Up, this 4H MA50 crossing constitutes the first validated sell signal coming off the big Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI which is trading inside a Channel Down.
Even though the S1 level is the first level of Support, we expect the pullback to correct a sizeable portion of that rally and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 36,000) around the S2 level with a relative tolerance range up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
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Dow Jones Gap Fill TradeHow many gaps get filled?
Gaps in the chart fill 80% of the time .
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EOY Review $DOW how to make 0,11 $ in 4 years....NYSE:DOW a great example why long term investing doesn't always beat shorter term speculating/trading
current price at same level as EOY '19....
closed the 2 down quarter green, above the low of previous quarter = positive
inside year = no clear direction, until market gives us new clues = neutral
anything can happen
Same story, different fuel. Really could have been avoided.
Powell had no choice to print during the pandemic, we cannot fault him for that.
Ignoring the US Debt problem?
Not rising the rates sooner?
Not allowing weak banks to fail?
Not allowing real estate to be crushed?
What is the point of the Interest rate system if you're just going to always pick the light method out that causes a super bubble that will end in chaos.
Here we are at 2023 like 1927 where the rate's are lowered and the folk are happy their "homes" will rise in value to lower interest rates.
Happy their "stocks will increase"
Careful what roller coaster you sign up for because the drops can be brutal.
We learn nothing from history.
DOW JONES Correction expected due to insanely overbought RSI.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit last week's (December 12) target (37000) at the top of the 2-month Channel Up (see chart below) with the price grinding ever since on its top:
That was a short-term signal, today we shift our attention to the medium-term and the 1D time-frame where the 1D RSI is 'insanely' overbought near 87.50, a level it hasn't touched since January 2018. In fact if we look a little longer, we can see a perfectly fitting sequence with today's price action in late 2016. The 1D RSI got hugely overbought at 87.40 on December 13 2016 and pulled-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend.
This overbought 1D RSI peak was made after two straight Channel Downs leading to approximately +9.58% and +14.50% rises, which is quite similar to what's been happening since April. This tells us not to engage in any buying any more, even though due to being on the end of year euphoria and post Fed rate cut anticipation, it can rise some more. But the risk is higher now than buying near the 1D MA50 again.
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Bears, if you're reading this it's too late We are in a highly volatile, increasingly risky environment with overwhelming bearish sentiment.
- What the news has to say: "no hope, inflation, recession, bear market, war, fire, brimstone, kim kardashian tho, inflation, recession, etc..." (I can paraphrase: FUD)
- What the math has to say: Most likely path over the next few weeks is an explosive run to 430s to complete X2 of a triple combo, followed by one more leg down to around 348 to complete Z - and thus, complete corrective wave IV. After that we will see a new All time high in wave V in late 2022/early 2023.
...This is nothing new, a lot of ideas are circulating on tradingview by those that know Elliot Wave very well - and until I get confirmation otherwise I have to agree that is the most likely case. This post, however, is meant to accomplish 2 goals:
1) Emphasize/make everyone aware that we are set up to see some very explosive upside over the next few weeks, starting Tuesday July 5th. I'm not talking about the usual pop and drop everyone has been conditioned to expect these last 6 months. Rather, at least +50 points of squeeze-the-FUD upside is about to unfold and be realized by the end of July/early August. I have reason to believe, based on the math, that the big money has been carefully setting the stage for this run. The objective is to test their horns... see if they can leverage this negative environment to mark this up and invoke chaos - which they'll use to their advantage to test carryover demand and confirm the overhanging supply has been absorbed as my chart suggests.
2) Present an alt. path to new highs in August 2022. I'm talking MOASS. Without going into detail on the math here, I must admit the setup is both sophisticated and familiar - evidence to the trained eye that bears might be in some serious trouble. Talk is cheap though, I said everything I want to say in the chart, now here is my prediction... I suggest you mark this post in case what I'm indicating does indeed play out, you'll want to know the timeline, roadmap, and time frames to look for:
- We will gap up above 384.11 Tuesday morning, 7/5. We won't look back.
- We will continue to fill the gap from 396-401, and end next week (7/8) above 404
- We will then have until July 12th to make it over 424.12 for the alt. path to remain on the table... There is something that occurs above 424 (given it is hit by 7/12) that will trigger explosiveness to break above the blue trendline across the higher high we ran into early June? What is that something? It has to do with the determinant of a linear system composed of retracement and extension pairs shifting orientation in space (within the temporal constraints defined by implicit and explicit supply/demand equilibrium points... if you figure it out then you're welcome, you've tasted the forbidden fruit). From here I'll give the conditional expectations:
~ If we clear 424 by 7/12 the next stop will be 463.69 by July 25th, followed by a test of the blue trendline for support, and then if we make above 463-468 by July 25th we will see something that I'd expect to go down in history as the Mother Of Really Even All Squeezed Shorts... Led by GME (no cap)... and resulting in a new All time High sometime in August 2022. If this occurs I expect consolidation at 505, 524, and then the beginning of the true distribution phase around 536 where wave V should complete before we enter the real recession, the real bear market, the real long winter.
~~ If we get rejected at or before 424 and it fails to breach it by 7/12, then we will still likely make one more leg up to the 430s where they will distribute at a much smaller scale before throwing in the towel (for now) and preparing for a Z wave down to around 348.. from there they will devise a successful accumulation scheme to end this wave IV once and for all in September - November 2022. *Note: they already failed once back in March, they failed because it couldn't breach the critical level (at the time) of 468, and then it failed to hold 458, so they had to scramble and distribute down that disgusting Y wave until the overhanging supply was completely absorbed (that intersection of the light purple and light blue trendlines formed back in September/October of 2021 is what I'm referring too - that intersection of the 2 at the end of last week is what I'm seeing as confirmation its been dealt with. Assume they condition their algos to adapt like they condition retail to buy dips and sell pops at the perfectly worse time - an operant response.
If you can figure out whats going on in the busy regions then great for you. If not, don't worry, you can FOMO soon like everyone else with or without eyes. Love you too.
Heed,
XOX Guardian
yP.S. we are from the dimension that exists in Y our future, translated in O ur past via R.E.M. within the dimension that exists in Y our present... or did
DOW JONES has entered the SELL ZONEDow Jones / US30 has broken into the 0.786 - 1.000 Fibonacci zone, which is the top range of the Channel Up since September 2022.
That is the most efficient range to start adding shorts as a corrective Channel Down is expected to start in January.
Wait for the 1day MACD to form a Bearish Cross.
Target 35450, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci level and has been touched by both previous Bearish Waves of the Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES - If This Count Is Accurate, The Last Wave Has Begun.While the channeling doesn't align entirely with my preferences, the symmetry resulting from the alternation, particularly between major Wave 2 and Wave iv of Wave 3, effectively constrains the price action. Notably, the correction spanning from 2018 to 2022 is identified as major Wave 4, which, in my assessment, appears relatively minor due to prior alternation patterns.
I'd like to draw attention to the expanded corrections, predominantly observed at the upper end, each validated by AriasWave counts in terms of wave identification. It appears that we are currently in the conclusive phase of major Wave 5, expected to conclude around the 54,000 mark if its length is approximately akin to that of Wave 1. The upcoming months will be intriguing to observe developments in this vicinity.
It is worth noting the characteristic nature of Wave 5 as a perceived weak final move, a fitting observation given the prevailing market conditions and the absence of significant strength in other markets.