Dow Jones heading to 37000Cup and Handle formed on Daily and broken up.
7>21 MA and price >200MA
Broken out of medium term downtrend giving us more bullish signals.
With inflation slowing down to 7.7% below expectations of 7.9%.
With jobs being added 210,000+ beating expectations and with the global market rally as investors flock away from Crypto due to uncertainty, fraud and insolvency - we can expect an early Santa Claus Rally.
BULLISH
DOW
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationWith the price moving above the ichimoku cloud and breaking the descending trend line on the H4 chart, we are looking for a pullback buy entry at 32818.16, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 35411.35, which is the previous swing high and the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at 31711.78, just below the 38.2% Fibonacci line.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 17th November 2022The overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bullish . However, we intend to utilize the pullback. So we're looking for a sell entry at 34281.36 , which is the previous swing high and the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at 35492.22, the previous swing high. The take profit will be set at 32135.41, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOW JONES Will a Rate Cut do more harm than good to stocks?Bold question and should certainly raise some eyebrows but let's look at the complete picture. This chart displays Dow Jones (DJI) and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate (blue trend-line) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
I will make it quick to save us time and then each person can individually make their own conclusions from the chart. The combination of the Fed raising the rates since the start of the with Dow dropping, hasn't been seen often historically on this data set dating back to June 1954. In fact historically, Dow (stock markets in general) tend to rise along with rates. Some times (4 in history) when the Rate Cut happens, Dow drops as well. Most of the times the stock rally continued without a major drop even after the Rate Cuts.
Basically the only time on this data-set that resembles today (assuming the Fed pauses or cuts in 2023) is 1969/70, 1972-74 and 1983/84, with the latter largely associated with Fed Chair Volcker monetary practices. During those periods, Dow started falling as the Rate was rising and then dropped after the Rate cut.
Do you think we are repeating such a period? Will a Rate Cut in the near future do more harm than good to the stock market?
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DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn H4 chart, we have a bullish bias with the price moving above the ichimoku cloud and breaking the descending trend line, we are looking for a pullback buy entry at 32818.16, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be set at 31711.78, slightly below where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 16th November 2022The overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bullish. However, we intend to utilize the pullback. So we're looking for a sell entry at 34106. 01, which is the previous swing high and the 100% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at 35492.22, the previous swing high. The take profit will be set at 32135.41, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
SDOW | Easy Money | DOW Bear ETFThe fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index is a price-weighted index and includes 30 large-cap, "blue-chip" U.S. stocks, excluding utility and transportation companies. The fund is non-diversified.
2022-???? Bear Market to be labeled as: Bond Bust!Recession, Stagflation, Inflation, Dollar Strength, Russia/Ukraine War...how about labeling the current market turmoil what it really is; A Bond Bust!
As you can see from the monthly chart below, in Jan 2022 the US10YR Yield bullishly broke the neckline of an inverse H&S that formed between June 2019-Jan 2022; then in March of 2022 it broke up again from major downtrend line. (I wrote a post about this in March 2022 saying we were in "Unchartered Territory" and the US10YR must be watched).
If the Inverse H&S plays out it means we will see interest rates in the 7.5-8% range at a minimum in the near term. (Two things worth noting: 1. Nothing about this chart is bearish nor can you say it is showing any signs of reversing anytime soon when looking at it from a long term perspective. 2. Based upon charting theory-H&S patterns usually play out IF they are formed at tops or bottoms)
Most people think of bonds as a "relatively safe" investment vs. other types of investments so when you have the below loss on a "relatively safe" investment it should send out shock waves:
2022 YTD TLT LOSS: -34.12%
TLT High to Low during current bear market (Years 2000-2022): -48.89%
A 20 year US Bond ETF losing almost 50% within 31 months should be shocking AND, as stated above, yields are not showing any signs of reversing!
Here are the YTD Losses, as of Friday, in the US Indexes.
NDX: -30.08%
RUT: -19.29%
SPX: -19.04%
DJI: -10.99%
Would you have ever thought that TLT would outperform NDX in YTD losses during a bear market? Before 2022, I think 99.9% of traders would state this would be impossible. And yet...here we are with only two months left in 2022.
Now to the monthly charts of the DOW/DJI. I wanted to have a look at this chart since it has held up relatively well to see how the current monthly chart compares to other bear markets (Defined as a greater than 20% decline close to close). The green line on the charts is the 15 SMA...I also added some horizontal highs/lows based upon the high/lows of the last time price made an ATH and then closed below the 15 SMA and then back above it BEFORE a bear market formed. No two bear markets are the same so it's really about the relationship of the 15 SMA and the horizontal pink & red lines...what this analysis tells me is we will most likely test the March 2020 low at some point in time...we might come back up and re-test the ATH or go a little above it but statistically speaking if you look at the bear markets of the last 100 years in the DOW a new bull market is not us! Oct 2022 could however provide a temporary low! (Exceptions: 1917 & 1987 bear markets)
Key take aways:
1. The US10YR Yield; followed by the other common known Treasury Yields, should be the most discussed topic and how those charts affect money flows into different types of investments instead of all the other FUD out there! Remember: Money chases yields.
2. The chances of us re-visiting the Covid lows in the DOW are high given the above analysis.
3. NDX doesn't like high Treasury Yields as it's currently the weakest of the US Indexes and very weak compared to the DOW. Its history isn't as vast as the DOW so its anyone's guess as to how low it could go or how long it could take to make another ATH. It's not an Index I'm looking at buying anytime soon as Yields have made a clear signal that the 40 year downtrend has ended so we need to change our thinking in this new environment!
4. January seems to be a topping month while October seems to be a bottoming month however that is probably just a coincidence as this was not the case in the early 1900's.
There is a lot to take in above so I hope it makes sense after you think through it...I know it's not a quick read!
DOW JONES broke above all Bear Market barriers!The Dow Jones index (DJI) broke last week, following the impressive drop on monthly inflation, above both the Lower Highs trend-line dating back to the January 05 market high and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which was the level that rejected the previous Lower High on August 16.
We've been discussing the importance of this level as a Rejection Zone for over a month and didn't hesitate to claim that a break above the 1D MA300 would restore the long-term bullish trend:
We are not backing down from this claim. The continuous monthly drop on the CPI is lifting market hopes again for a looser monetary policy but technically, there are still some key levels to consider. The price is approaching the 34300 Resistance (1), which is essentially the August 16 High. Right now it appears that we are inside a no-trade zone (blue triangle) where any direction is possible.
A closing above the 34300 Resistance (1) would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 35540 Resistance (2), which is practically the April 21 Lower High. On the other hand, a break below the 1D MA300 and below the former Lower Highs, should seek the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but more importantly the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Supports, a usual buyers accumulation level during Bull Runs.
P.S. Watch the huge bullish divergence on the RSI 1W time-frame.
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Stocks Face Resistance at HighsStocks are still contending with relative highs. The S&P 500 has been wavering between highs at 4009 and 3963 or so. The strong buying spike from CPI last Thursday has leveled off in a sickle pattern. From here, we will see if stocks continue to range or if they retrace. The Kovach OBV is still bullish, but does appear to be losing steam. We could be forming a bull consolidation in pattern in preparation for another breakout. If so, 4068 is the next target. If we retrace, we should see support from 3963 or 3937.
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn H4, with the price moving above the ichimoku cloud and breaking the descending trend line, we are looking for a pullback buy entry at 32818.16, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be set at 31711.78, slightly below where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 15th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . However, we are looking to play the pullback. So we are looking for a sell entry at 34106.01, where the previous swing high and 100% Fibonacci line are located. Stop loss will be set at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is located. Take profit will be set at 32135.41, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 14th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. With price tapping into my buy entry at 32135.41, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located, I am looking to take profit at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is located. Stop loss will be at 30775.37, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Dax daily long-term : technical say dax can go to 19000 FOR ALL INDEX FROM DOW TO NASDAQ : we strongly advice 90 percent looking for buy and be careful from sell
dax 1st target is fibo61% 14500 and if break it and high can start wild trend to new high 19000 in 2023
keep monitor AC indicator on dax 4hour chart ok?
if you have old sells you must close all above 13950 support
note: COT data in chart below is for big banks net open order on dowjones futures YM1!
wish you win
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. With the price tapping into our buy entry at 32257.13, which contains the Fibonacci lines of 23.6% and 61.8%. We've set a relatively safe stop loss at 31007.33, the intersection of the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci lines. The take profit level will be 34106.01, which is also the location of the previous high as well as the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci expansion lines.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 11th November 2022The overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. With price tapping into our pullback buy entry level of 32135.41, as defined by the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines. I've set a relatively safe stop loss at 30775.37, the point where the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines intersect. My stop loss will be set at 34106.01, which is the previous high as well as the 100% Fibonacci line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Channel on the Dow working out perfect since January of this yeaThis is one of those times when the channel works out perfectly. We have been in a bear market since the beginning of the year, don’t be fooled by the short rallies here and there, that’s only to get to the top of the channel just so it can fall to hell again. CPI numbers coming out at 8:30, May be a good catalyst to see the Dow fall and contribute to the downward leg on the channel
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 32257.13, which contains the 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines. We've set a relatively safe stop loss at 31007.33, which is where the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci lines intersect. The take profit level will be 34106.01, which is where the previous high as well as the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci expansion lines are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 10th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. Our pullback buy entry level of 32135.41, marked by the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines, has been reached. I've set a relatively safe stop loss at 30775.37, the intersection of the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines. My stop loss will be set at 34106.01 where the previous high and the 100% Fibonacci line are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Stocks Showing Signs of WeaknessStocks have edged higher, but appear to be leveling off. Election uncertainty will be lifted as results of the 2022 midterms keeps pouring in. The markets are not as concerned in election results as most think, but we may see a small rally now that they're over. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, which could suggest that stocks will hold their course. We have seen a very weak rally with the S&P 500 inching gains for the past week. The price action appears to be rounding off, which could suggest a selloff soon. Additionally, more warnings of a global recession keep pouring in, so it is difficult to imagine this wave of euphoria can sustain. If we fall, we should have support at 3758 or 3714. If we rally, we must break 3909 before considering higher prices.