DOW
US30 Analysis Today's focus: US30
Pattern – LH
Support – 34,560
Resistance – 35,030
• Price set a new failed high, pressuring the current rally
• US Employment data at due 8:30 am
Today, we have run over US30 technicals and price action after yesterday’s selling set up a failed rally that could become a new lower high. We don’t have a directional bias at the moment, but we feel there are a few things to mention and watch heading up to today’s NFP data. Could weaker data support buyers, and if we see higher than expected data, could this maintain rates worries and drive price lower?
Have a great day and good trading.
McDonald's Corp: Bearish Deep Crab with Double PPO ConfirmationWe have a Bearish Deep Crab with a PPO Confirmation Arrow and a Circle with MACD Bearish Divergence and have broken below the faster moving EMAs. I would next expect this to make at least a 61.8% Retrace, which would take it back to about $185.
This makes the third major Dow 30 Stock that has signalled something ultra bearish like this; the other two being UNH and MSFT, which can be seen below:
We are likely looking at a major correction coming to the Dow Jones Industrial Average very soon.
DOW JONES sets course for the All Time High in the next 2 monthsDow Jones (DJI) held its 1D MA100 as Support and as projected on our analysis last week (see chart below), it formed a Higher Low on the 5-month Channel Up and rebounded:
We now move to the 1W time-frame where this week's 1W candle is so far the strongest since July 17 and already recovered the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). After completing the standard -4.70% correction to the Channel's bottom, the norm within this pattern is to first post a +6.15% rise and ultimately complete the Higher High with a +9.00%. As a result, our short-term target is 36100 (+6.15%) and by the end of October 36960 (+9.00%), which is the All Time High since January 2022!
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Structure Analysis & Key Levels
Here is my latest structure analysis for Dow Jones Index.
Resistance 1: 35000 - 35150 area
Resistance 2: 35480 - 35570 area
Resistance 3: 35620 - 35690 area
Support 1: 34490 - 34690 area
Support 2: 34020 - 34100 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Goldman Sachs - Are Banks The Next Dumpster?Goldman Sachs is another one of those stocks that's traded like a can of dog food for a very long period of time that the masses are really drawn to, much like Target, Disney, and Paypal, of which you can find calls for that I've made in the linked section below.
GS is relatively significant in that it's one of the 30 components of the Dow, which is one of the big three indexes.
The Dow had previously been the leader in strength, and for a long time, but in the last several weeks has become the leader in weakness.
Although it looks like a minor blip on the radar, I feel it's something of a harbinger of doom.
And the problem for Goldman Sachs can be seen clearly on the monthly:
Clearly insofar that the bounce from the 2018 high should have lead to new highs.
Instead, the distribution block from the market highs served as resistance. 14 months later, it took out July's low and we can now safely theorize that lower prices are in order.
Weekly bars show us that a failure swing has formed and July's price action was just a local stop raid.
So, what could a catalyst be? Arguably, there doesn't need to be a catalyst. It's just that JP Morgan is long 15,800 puts with a strike of SPX 4,225 expiring September 29 that have never been in the money since they were purchased at the end of Q2.
And so when one index falls, all indexes falls, and the arbitrage algorithms naturally take component stocks down with them.
There's also the economic disaster China under Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are facing. When you have a disaster hit the world's "Central Kingdom," nobody is an island and those macro equity flows will cause significant turmoil in other markets.
For the U.S. market makers, this simply represents an opportunity to kill longs, buy everyone's losses at the bottom, and rip it back to new highs while you short sell and chase the entire way because Reddit and Discord and Xeeeeeter told you to.
But "the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
What looms over the head of humanity is the CCP's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners in Mainland China, which was launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
Although Jiang is dead now, the persecution still continues. Xi hasn't been a part of the persecution. Xi, to the contrary, has been killing the participants of the persecution in his "Anti-Corruption Campaign."
But much of the world has gone to Shanghai to do business with the Jiang Faction and that requires swearing vows to the Red Cult's Flag of Blood and leaving collateral.
This is going to be a roadblock to the future for the U.S. "systemically important banks" that cannot be passed, and the impact is going to be significant.
So, here's the trade on Goldman Sachs.
The target the algorithm is set up to pursue is definitely $275. Shorting from $320 actually really isn't that bad. Getting $45 on a put will do rather well for you even if you can only afford one.
Although optimal entry was definitely the $350s.
But the truth is that you aren't likely to be able to long $274 profitably. I'd say the first place you can look for a reversal or a meaningful bounce is $223.
Humans won't believe it until they see it. But once you see it, it's too late.
It only counts if you do something for yourself while the cards are still face down.
Just like poker, the river is coming, and there won't be any "running it twice."
DOW JONES Buy opportunity after strongest correction since May.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 5th straight day and is doing so near the bottom of the 5-month just above the 1D MA50 (green trend-line). The latter has been intact since June 02, so technically we are at a very strong Support zone. In fact August's decline so far has been the strongest technical correction since May.
The lower buy confirmation will come after the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, but you can also take the break-out buy signal if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. In any case, our bullish target is 36300, which would represent a +6.13% rise, the minimum rise % since the Channel Up started on March 15.
If however the 1D candle closes below the 1D MA100, we will take a quick sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 33800. Upon successful hitting of the target, we will add the 2nd buy position and use it for a longer term target at 36900.
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SPY New All Time Highs By Year End. 8% No Recession
Jerome Powell thanks retail for shorting the M2 debasement.
Now watch in suspense the next months unfold of non stop SPY rising and the market try to figure out what's going wrong.
Welcome to the roaring 23s and welcome to start of the final bubble.
Once that 8% gap is taken out I suspect news to start breaking it and the "TLT bulls" will get a shock when capital leaves money market funds and flows back into the growth sector.
Believing the "recession nonsense" is almost like believing the roman denarius aureus did not lose any silver content.
We've been in a recession since QE started in 2009, the currency will always debase to defend asset value even though it makes it weaker, this is how's it will be until the end of this system.
UNH: Complex Bearish Head & Shoulders /Hidden Bearish DivergenceUnitedHealth Group has formed this Complex Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly time frame and has formed two layers of MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence. The most recent action we got on this stock was a weekly bearish engulfing candle, and now we're expected to see it come down at least to about $300, which would be very bad for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as UNH is the top weighted holding of the index.
Dow Jones (US30): Bullish Move From Key Level Explained
Dow Jones Index is trading in a bullish trend.
After the price set a new higher high on a daily, it retraced to a key daily structure support.
A doji candle was formed on that.
Analyzing a 4H time frame, we can spot a confirmed bullish breakout of a resistance line of a falling channel and an inverted h&s pattern formation with a violated neckline.
These bullish clues make me think that the price may bounce.
Goals will be 34820 / 35050
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