US30USD: Potential Right Shoulder and Bearish Gartley at HOPThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is forming a Potential Right Shoulder within an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern and in this Right Shoulder, we can see a Potential Bearish Gartley at the HOP level with PPO confirmation. If it plays out, we will confirm a Partial Rise and increase the chances of a full on breakdown below this wedge pattern which at the very least would take us to the lows of the entire range.
DOW
DJIA, Flag-Formation Confirmed, Continuation Ahead!________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hi Traders, this is a signal I give to you for free today. Support will be great with a like and follow when useful.
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ENTRY: 27820-27950
MINIMUM TARGET: 28250
STOP LOSS: 27410
MINIMUM RISK REWARD: 1
REASON: Bull-Flag Confirmation
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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DOW: Downhill ⛷️Within the turquoise B wave, the Dow is currently in a downtrend. We expect this decline to continue to the turquoise target zone between $51.53 and $48.47, where we expect the reversal to occur. If the bulls prevent a decline until then and push the price above the resistance at $56.49, which we consider to be 34% probable, the price would establish the high of the magenta wave alt. a little higher.
DOW JONES 1st 1W Bullish Cross since 2016. Can we see 42k next?Dow Jones (DJI) is forming this week the first MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross (when the former crosses above the latter) on the 1W time-frame since September 2016 (assuming January/ February 2021 was flat due to the COVIC flash crash).
This on its own is a major long-term buy signal, especially since the 1W MA50 has been supporting since March. As you can see the 2022 - 2023 price action is very similar to the 2015 - 2016 sequence. Both fractals started on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs, which bottomed after marginally breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The new Bull Cycle was confirmed after the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned it into a Support being formerly a Resistance. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross signified the bottom. Notice how even the 1W RSI and 1W MACD fractals are identical with their respective Higher Lows.
It appears that Dow is currently past the initial Channel Down and on the Circle pattern, which in 2016 was the final consolidation before a hyper aggressive rally that topped in January 2018. Before that top it reached the 1.5 and 1.786 Fibonacci extensions.
We treat the current pull-back as the last opportunity to buy this upcoming rally while the price is still that low. Having relatively low expectations, we expect to see at least 42000 (1.5 Fibonacci) by the end of Q1 - start of Q2 2024.
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D-JONES, Important Levels To Consider Next Times!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this update-analysis where we are looking at the DOW JONES Industry Index 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent price-action, the current importances in the structure, what to consider next times and how to handle upcoming situations in the right manner. As the overall stock-market is recovering from its corona-breakdowns seen this year there are major indices which already filled important key-levels such as the huge gap in the SPX which I mentioned and now filled properly, the DOW is still below these levels and could possibly follow-up with its gap-fill. In this case I detected some important signals which can make this happen when the DOW moves correctly within its range, but this does not mean the market is comptletely bullish as the bear-market is still not confirmedly over bearish action can increase again as markets approaching solid supply zones.
Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index just moved above its descending-channel-formation and formed this smaller ascending-channel-formation where it also moved above the upper boundary, these factors give an increased bullish pace within here and can indicate continuation to the upside which will be given when the index manages to travel above the last rising resistance of its channel as you can watch it in my chart, it is either possible to form a consolidation before doing this or a immediate breakthrough, a consolidation is more likely within this structure. When this properly plays out the index will look for the gap to be filled which will be crucial as this can be a point where supply enters the market as people taking profit and the price moves to the downside therefore it can also be considered a possible short-zone as you can watch it marked in my chart.
It is highly important to take note that although the index sending some decent bullish signals at the moment it is still not confirmedly bullish not only because there are still remaining strong resistance-levels but also because there is still a huge difference between real economy and stock-market as stock-market is showing gains real economy is in a decline, to provide a healthy unspeculative market environment these two need definitely move together. When the index approaches the higher levels we need to elevate and be prepared for possible bearish signs as this will be crucial level where selling pressure can enter while many retailers rushed into the market to do not pass away the rally smart-money is still not fully in the market and in the sidelines this can be a indication for more bearish pressure assuming over the course of next weeks and months.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight and have a good day!
“Forecast is a mixed fortune in todays market environment. ”
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets
D-JONES, Double Bottom, Possibility On The Long-Side!________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hi Traders, this is a signal I give to you for free today. Support will be great with a like and follow when useful.
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ENTRY: 25850-26000
MINIMUM TARGET: 26900
STOP LOSS: 25395
MINIMUM RISK REWARD: 2.55
REASON: Double Bottom
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In this manner, thank you for watching and support for more market insight.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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D-JONES, It Will Be An Huge Historical Test In Stock-History!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the recent events, the current price-formation-structure and what we can expect the next times in one of the major leading stock-indices worldwide and one of the oldest participants in stock-markets the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, after we have seen the huge corona-crisis-breakdown which hit all global markets heavily we see a slowly moving uptrend right now, the big question which we have to ask our selves at the moment is if this uptrend is a stabile uptrend which will continue on a solid foundation or if it is just a huge bull-trap selling the shares to smart money on higher prices. As there are not only fundamental but also technical signals which I detected and which play an important role in the further outcome of the market we are looking at the 4-hour local timeframe.
When considering an index which builds the stock-market we have to also compare it with the current real economic situation and the things going on worldwide, and this situation is in fact a high volatile right now as the real economy is still damaged from the corona-crisis which has caused big failures due to lockdowns and the conservatism of the investors in this time. Also, we have massive protests going on worldwide which hasn't been seen since many 10th of years in that a mass-fashion. So taking all these factors together we can examine a divergence in the real economy and the stock market which shouldn't be the case because it is unnatural for the market and when it goes on for longer it has a big speculative impact on the market because the real economy isn't growing but the stock-market due to massive money printing from central banks, therefore, these two should build the same line together to provide a possibility for prosperity.
Technically speaking we see the index currently approaching a historical resistance level which is also the all-time-high-level you can see marked in my chart in red, when we approach this level firstly we can expect an pull-back because it is still a strong resistance level when this happened there are basically two possible scenarios which can play out within the index, once it is a second test of the resistance level where the price can succeed and make a new all-time-high to continue further and the second case will be that we break the current uptrend line you can see in my chart marked in grey to the downside which will cause bearish pressure and a test of the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder formation. When considering the bullish case it is important to keep in mind that the breakout needs to confirm with high volatility and sustainable price-action otherwise it can be a bull trap factly till the head and shoulders formation target confirmed.
It has to be noted that when we confirm a new high and advance further this will be a highly speculative rally as the real economy and the stock-market are still in divergence together firstly when these both run together we can get a healthy market environment. When considering the bearish side we can get bearish pressure after the uptrend line crossed to the downside, from that point it is possible for the index to test the neckline of the head and shoulder formation from where we can form a reversal and advance further but it can also turn out to come more bearish pressure to the downside which can invalidate the head and shoulder formation, therefore when we cross the 22690 mark to the downside this will get a definite bearish breakdown and need to be kept in the schedule for further considerations. At all the test of the resistance will be the critical factor in the further continuation of the index.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support for more market insight and all the best!
There are many roads to prosperity in the modern economy, but one must be contemplated.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 11/09/2023 (+ Higher TF)For traders (lower timeframe):
The primary expectation is now that we will go back into the wave ((b)) area to take out the previous high. That would mean we get an additional correction up as a wave ((b)). This move should be followed by further downside as a wave ((c)).
For investors (higher timeframe):
In the higher timeframe, investors should wait for the completion of the abc pullback. The wave 2 area is a nice buying opportunity for investors.
DOW JONES - Streamlining My Long-Term View For Clarity..."As mentioned previously, I decided to take a hiatus from chart analysis to focus on personal growth. I'm committed to delivering high-quality insights and refuse to share subpar ideas just for the sake of it. Continuous improvement is my mantra, and stagnation isn't an option for me.
During this break, I've reevaluated my bearish stance to gain a fresh perspective. This shift in outlook has enabled me to grasp the potential bullish future of cryptocurrencies. Understanding the 'why' behind these possibilities has been crucial, and my chart-free period has been instrumental in achieving this clarity.
DOW JONES Bottom formation completed.Dow Jones / US30 has formed the 2nd leg of the bottom sequence on the Rising Support and the 0.236 Fibonacci level at the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is a similar formation to May, also on a Rising Support. Once the Falling Resistance broke, the price almost reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, before making a Higher High.
The CCI between the two patterns is also indentical.
If the price crosses over the 4hour MA50, buy and target 35200.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES: The Channel bottomed. Strong buy opportunity.Dow Jones is once more near the HL of the five month Channel Up. The neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.013, MACD = -68.570, ADX = 21.330) further suggests that this is a low risk buy opportunity. The HL on the 1D RSI is consistent with the trendlines of May 31st and March 22nd all of whom where bottoms. As long as the 1D MA100 holds, we will be on a long position aiming at a +6 rise in total (TP = 36,000).
Prior idea:
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DOW JONES Last buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected on August 31 on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and that made the price pull-back. We are now close to the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again, which is where the initial rebound started on August 25, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This is the final buy opportunity on this pattern, as any closing below it would be a pattern invalidation and the trend would change to bearish on the long-term. Key to this, is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which could be only 4-5 days away. The last such formation was on June 09 and as with the one that preceded that, it will be a bullish signal.
We will wait for either a new 1D MA50 test or a completed 4H Golden Cross in order to buy with the lowest risk possible. Target 1 will be 36000 and Target 2 36900 (just below the All Time High).
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US30 Dow Jones Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIt's evident that the US30 index has been confined within a tight trading range from the latter part of the Asian session leading up to the London Open. In the preceding week, we observed a notable price surge toward a critical resistance level, but that advance was met with resistance, and now the index appears to be consolidating sideways.
I'm actively scouting for a prospective trading opportunity for the upcoming week, and examining the chart to pinpoint the likelihood of an early-week stop run. If such an occurrence materialises, it could serve as an advantageous intraday trading opportunity. Please be aware that all comprehensive explanations are provided in the accompanying video, and it is crucial to note that this analysis should not be construed as financial advice.
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?The last ten days of price action produced a retrace of significant magnitude that was very kind to institutional friends who were net long from early June.
That is to say, what has transpired since all three indexes took their January of 22 failure pivot levels in early July has been more consistent with an optimal short entry combining with a bull trap, combining with a chance for big players who were either still full long or partially long to mitigate their losses and exit their positions.
But retail, especially those who foolishly follow the messages emitted on social media, regard price action as "confirmation" that we're on our way to a new bull market.
The macro economic situation is that the Federal Reserve has reiterated that while it may slow the pace of hikes going forward, depending on economic data, there is no intention whatsoever to pivot.
When you consider the above in light of monthly candles trading so far above their long-term trendline, big big danger flags should be going off in your head.
The reason is that Fed rates connect to bond yields. Bonds also have a feature where as they pay more interest the price also goes down, way down.
What this means is that there's huge alpha to generate for big funds and big banks who trade very long time frames in selling equities at a high price, buying bonds at high yields and low prices, and sitting on that position instead of taking risks on commodities and equities while the world is in a really bad situation.
Weekly candles show us more clearly that significant areas of concern that should be retraced to before any further upside is rationally thought to be on deck were not achieved before the bounce.
A big problem facing the markets at present is the existence of the Q3 "JPM Collar," which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
It's worth noting that JPM, which sold calls with a strike of 4,665 at the end of July, has not been in the red on that portion of their position yet, although whoever bought them has certainly made money since price approached 4,665 very quickly after purchase.
The bigger component of their trade is that the most significant bank on this planet is long 15,800 puts with a strike of 4,225 that have never been in the money since they were purchased.
Expiry date is September 29.
Because of time decay, for JPM to break even on that portion of its position, we would need prices approach 4,000 and the VIX to push over 20 to pump implied volatility premium, and all in only a few weeks.
And although this is a Nasdaq call, one index fuels all three indexes.
A problem with thinking the indexes have bottomed is that while the Nasdaq may have rebalanced a gap before the pump, the SPX did not:
And even less did the Dow, which has traded like a heavy bag of rocks despite having the strongest recovery from last October's dump of any of the three indexes.
The algos have a habit of making all three indexes do the same thing before the page really turns.
You're also dealing with a worldwide economic and geopolitical situation where everything is heavily balanced by a horsehair.
And that horsehair is the Chinese Communist Party, which looks like it will take Xi Jinping to its grave with it.
The CCP is about to collapse, and it will happen overnight, in the middle of the night, and there will be a lot of gap downs.
The reason the market is still trading in a structured way is simply because the U.S. Empire and the globalist faction, which wants to install the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide, ramble on about "War With Taiwan" all the time because the intention is to take control of China when the CCP falls using a Taiwan-based proxy.
"But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
The problem for all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999.
Organ harvesting, rape, murder, and things worse than organ harvesting have never been beneath the CCP, and unfortunately, the rest of the world who has been funneling blood to the Party all these years to keep it afloat so it can keep on lying to the world.
And so what I can tell is arranged is that we dump hard into the end of Q3, and then it seems to me that we rally in Q4, probably back towards the index highs, with all of 2024 being an economic nightmare.
Donald Trump looks like he's going to prison and won't be able to save you. Not that Donald Trump is capable of saving anyone, lol.
So Biden will win by default because nobody is going to vote for DeSantis or Vivek, and the socialist spending schemes and the crashing of the world economy is arranged.
But because the CCP is on the brink of falling and China is not a country that any outside forces have ever been able to capture in its 5,000 year history, perhaps before the year is out we will see the rally truncated sharply.
"Watch Out For Fire."
The call:
Short Nasdaq now anticipating a ruthlessly bloody September, close under 14,000.
Go long under 14,000. Close when you have a lot of profits and cash out.
Brokerages aren't going to be processing withdrawals anymore than Binance is right now when the CCP collapses.
Everyone will be trying to run for their lives. It's very dangerous. Nobody should have supported Marxist-Leninism, the CCP, and the persecution of Falun Gong's true cultivators.
But they did. And the consequences are not something people can bear.
SDOW: Bullish Dragon and Deep Cypher with PPO ConfirmationThe 3x Inverse ETF of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has formed a Bullish Dragon and has broken free from it at the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Cypher with a Bullish PPO Confirmation Circle. If things go as one would expect, then we will see this ETF pump up to at least the 61.8% Retrace, but given how Bearish so many of the Heaviest Weighted Holdings in the Dow look right now like: MCD , UNH , MSFT , GS , and AAPL , I now think we may even go as high as the 88.6% Retrace.
Dow Jones on a continuous and strong uptrend in 2023Raising inclination trend has confirmed on the Dow Jones.
What this means is that the rising trend is going up at a higher degree.
A normal trend is around 45 degrees. A stronger trend is 60 degrees. and once it starts rallying above 60 degrees this is where GREED kicks in and you should prepare for downside.
Also there is a strong Rising Channel which I'm sure countless range traders are loving at the moment as well as Trend traders.
Price>200
RSI>50
Target 37,000
SPY TARGET 807 Enjoy The Repricing Jerome. Crisis 24 ignite.
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -142.1K?
USM2 Barely able to contract the supply under 20M?
Reserve Banks At Breaking Point - FORCED to stop hikes > lowering soon
Money Market Funds 5.693T will look to exit UST's as momentum in the PMI picks up.
Look familiar?
Only this time we have global debasement where China / Japan will be forced to QE trillions to backstop their debt.
All pointing to a chaotic melt up / readjustment of the US markets.
The problem with printing trillions to prevent a crisis is that money then weaves itself into the fabric of the problem you tried to control.
You CANNOT remove this capital used to plug the hole in the sinking ship.
This market looks primed to turn and go straight full throttle vertical.
Crisis 19 avoided Crisis 24 ignite.