DOW JONES On the verge of a new bullish break out.Dow Jones is testing the MA200 (4h) today, after holding the MA50 (4h), extending the rebound that was generated at the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is so far replicating to a good extend, the March 15th rebound-bullish leg.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA200 (4h) break out.
Targets:
1. 34850 (Falling Resistance).
Tips:
1. The MACD On the (1d) time frame is past a strong Buy Cross, much like March 22nd. It shows that we are on the same level as when that bullish leg tested the MA200 (4h).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 16/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We had a strong reaction from the reversal areas. However, in the lower time frame, we are missing one more swing up to identify an impulse. If we do not get the additional swing up, we probably take out the low as an impulsive fifth wave down.
DOW JONES is in an expansion Cycle and people still shorting it!Dow Jones on the 3M chart gives you the clearest picture you can get.
Every 10-15 years it consolidates inside a Megaphone (fundamental reasons like war, recession etc) and then an expansion phase follows.
In the 90s this expansion phase was extended due to the uprecedented boom of Dotcom.
While the index is on its expansion phase, the RSI trades inside a Falling Wedge, which warns of the loss in bullish strength and eventually leads to the new Megaphone.
Right now it is obvious that we are in an expansion phase. Needless to say it will last for as long as the MA50 holds.
The real question is will it be short like in the 1950s or extended like in mid 1980s-90s?
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 13/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 12/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW JONES May be starting a new Bull rally under our nose..Dow Jones (DJI) is printing on its RSI on the 1W time-frame an astonishingly symmetric Higher Lows pattern as 2015/ 2016. As with today, the price was within a Rising Wedge at the time, making a fake-out bearish break but still was emphatically supported by the lower Bollinger. In fact the Bollinger Bands have been instrumental in containing the price action.
It we are indeed (based on the 1W RSI) on a bottom similar to October 31 2016, then a very aggressive Bull rally is about to begin. And as always the majority isn't taking notice.
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DOW JONES Small pull back on the cards.Dow Jones hit the 1day MA200 yesterday and failed to close over it.
As a result, the price got rejected and started pulling back today.
Based on the 1day RSI, we could be in a minor corrective candle similar to March 22nd, which found Support between the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci range.
Buy on the 0.618 Fibonacci and target 35000 (Resistance A).
Previous chart:
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US30 - Daily Timeframe Analysis (ICT)(Refer to my Weekly analysis for US30 and DXY)
On lower timeframes I have 3 areas I want to anticipate a long to go to the short POI. Ideally, we don't see a daily close out of that thin yellow box (Daily Bisi).
There are 3 lines of defense for price to reach to and find support.
1st line of defense is a Breaker with CE of a wick and a gap, which looks very nice. This is my first choice.
2nd line of defense is the 4h bisi (dark blue is a bottom prediction if it gets there)
3rd and last line of defense is the 4h Orderblock MT.
The more price declines, I believe the faster the move up would be back above the yellow zone.
Relative equal highs reside above, so that gives me some confidence that we are likely moving higher.
The short POI is a 4h Sibi inside the weekly Sibi has my eye. A high RR trade could be possible.
US30 - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)The end of the week will show if we have bottomed here, but I have 2 areas of interest:
Where we are already in this weekly Sibi to either give up the ghost and drop lower, or go into the 2-week Sibi and then either break down or continue up and then find it as support soon after to proceed higher. Gut instincts and based on my sentiment for the USD is that we are going lower after hitting that 2-week Sibi, down to the weekly Bisi at least. There was already a break in the intermediate structure and MMSM. Seasonally November sees the USD rally as well.
DOW JONES: This is only the beginning of the recovery.Dow Jones touched yesterday the 1D MA100 and with it turned the 1D technical outlook neutral (RSI = 47.338, MACD = -251.570, ADX = 41.460). As presented last time (see idea link at the bottom) the rebound level was the bottom of the Channel Up and now that is confirmed as the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
Much like the bearish wave of February-March, the 1D MA50-100 Bearish Cross signifies the bottom and the beginning of a new long term rally. Since the drop has been remarkably similar (both -6.46%) it is possible that the rise will be proportional too (+7.18%). This will be a little over the R1 level (TP = 35,100).
Prior idea:
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 11/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW JONES has considerable upside potential targeting 34850.Dow Jones touched the MA200 (1d) today after bouncing off the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is a standard V shaped reversal, much like the one in March.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next MA200 (1d) break out.
Targets:
1. 34850 (Falling Resistance contact in similar fashion with April 14th).
Tips:
1. When the RSI (1d) is rebounding after being oversold, which is what took place on the March 13th Low. The two patterns are identical, this is why we expect the same target symmetry as then.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US30 Dow Jones Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaWe are presently analysing the US30, which has recently reached a critical resistance level. In the video, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Dow Jones, delving into various aspects including the prevailing trend, support and resistance levels, market structure, and price action dynamics. As the video nears its conclusion, we carefully assess a prospective trading opportunity.
It is important to emphasise that our video provides a thorough explanation of all aspects discussed, and it should be noted that the content is provided for educational purposes only. This should not be interpreted as financial advice.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 10/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
Longs squeeze before major moveIn the previous Dow Jones analysis I shared some weeks ago, I was expecting market to continue its bullish move more than what it did.
But since I bought near local low at that time, I was able to get out of that trade in profit.
The market then formed Triangle pattern and decided to go downhill from there which we have been seeing recently.
Last Friday, I was expecting market to go up upon the news in price territory of wave 1, then sweep the low before ultimately making its upward move. But instead it seems price went down a bit (not sweeping the low) then entered into price territory of wave 1 and today on market open, we can see a big gap.
Now it turns out, this is yet another good play done by market, trapping the longs with this big gap. I am expecting price to continue downside for now until we make a new low which would be our wave 5 of ending diagonals. From where the real upward move would start.
Waiting patiently for this scenario to play out. I am not gonna buy until the new low has not been formed.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 09/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW JONES Channel Up Double Bottom. Solid buy entry either way.Dow Jones (DJI) is rising following a vastly oversold 1D RSI reading (reached even 23.60) at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on the RSI pattern itself, we can draw comparisons with the December 2022 - March 2023 correction. According to that the 1D RSI has one more Low to make before it bottoms and that bottom will be leg (e). This will justify the emergence of a diverging Channel Up (dotted), where leg (e) will be its Higher Low while also completing a symmetrical -9.30% decline from the top.
Still, the price has dipped well below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was March's bottom formation, thus either entry is equally probable. As a result it is best to buy on both levels so that a low risk indeed opportunity won't be missed. Our target is 35000, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as Resistance 1.
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 06/10/2023The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like we are working on the fifth wave of wave ((c)). We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming, we will focus on the secondary scenario.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 05/10/2023The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like we are working on the fifth wave of wave ((c)). We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming, we will focus on the secondary scenario.
DJ30 H4 | Rising into 23.6% Fibo resistanceDow Jones (DJ30) could rise towards an overlap resistance and potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 33279.95
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 33798.50
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 32722.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 04/10/2023The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like we are working on the fifth wave of wave ((c)). We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming, we will focus on the secondary scenario.
UPDATE: Dow hit target 1 - heading to target 2 at 32622The dow broke below the Symmetrical Triangle and it was beautiful text book style.
We set the first target at the bottom of the pattern at 33,607.
Now that the momentum is still negative, we can expect it to head to the next target at 32,622.
The signs are all bearish and this is one of those hold and adjust stop loss if need be.