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AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAustralia: Jobs, wage data and RBA minutes on tap Australia’s labor market data is out on Thursday and expected to show the addition of 25k jobs in April after 53k jobs added in March, with the unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 3.5% and 66.7% respectively. Just a day ahead of this release, we also get the Q1 wage price index which could be a key focus as RBA Governor Lowe emphasised the importance of the “evolution of labor costs” to justify the recent increase in the cash rate. A big upside surprise in wage and labor data could continue to suggest a tight job market in Australia, and bring back “sticky” inflation concerns which could be a tricky situation for the RBA and potentially mean more downside for the AUDUSD which has broken below the 50DMA. RBA minutes from the May meeting are also out on Tuesday.
Long
by thunderpips
1
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUS: Debt ceiling talks, retail sales and jobless claims Despite inflation concerns easing somewhat last week, at least for the near term, markets still remain in a risk-off as debt ceiling talks linger. President Biden is expected to continue debt-ceiling talks with Congress leaders on Tuesday after last Friday’s meeting was postponed. The market is increasingly getting worried about a US default, and bond volatility and a switch to safe-haven assets will likely continue as talks linger and the X-date of June 1 doesn’t see a clear delay. Spending cuts could also bring pressure on sectors like defense that are heavily dependent on government spending. The other battle that the market continues to fight is to justify the current aggressive rate-cut pricing for this year, which remains at odds with economic data. The Michigan survey on Friday hinted at inflation becoming embedded in the long term, and the focus will shift to the growth side of the story this week. Tuesday’s retail sales print will be a test of the strength of the US consumer, while industrial production will be on watch to see if they confirm the uptick seen in PMIs. Headline retail sales are seen rising 0.8% M/M in April, offsetting some of the 0.6% M/M decline in March, core (ex-auto and gas) retail sales are seen up 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.3%), while the Control Group is expected to be up by 0.3% M/M, after -0.3% in March. Thursday’s jobless claims will also be key to watch after last week’s higher-than-expected print has sparked concerns of a cooling in the labor market. If the trend extends further, we could see a material shift in next month’s non-farm payroll expectations due on June 2.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
DOLLAR INDEX Wait to breakout the zone. DXY💲Hello my friend, Everything is marked on the chart like always. It's likely that the resistance will be broken but it's better to wait until it is broken and fixation above that. We can consider it and entering safe in the Gold , Euro , Pound and etc. key point is 102.7-103. Good luck. If its useful please like it as a support and follow me to next analysis :) Salam doostan aziz, hame chiz rooye chart baraye shoma moshakhas shode. be ehtemaale ziyad moghavemat shekaste mishavad vali behtare ke sabr konim ke shekaste shavad va balaye an tasbit dahad. mitoonim in ro dar nazar begirim va vorood haaye behtari dar Gold va euro va pond va ... dashte bashim. noghte kelidi 103 hastesh. moafagh bashid. like va follow faramoosh nashe :)
TVC:DXYLong
by ArashBanakar
1
$DXY -Room for Growth ?TVC:DXY has been showing signs of strength after Banks Failures, printing what seems to be a Double Bottom at 100.8 Despite uncertainty over the Banking Sector, there is definetely some Room for Growth to 105-106 regarding TVC:DXY Dollar Index Reaching such a target, would put TVC:DXY on Major Critical Resistances areas : - Broken Macro Trendline (in white) - 0.618 Macro Fibonnaci Level - 114 High Resistance Trendline (white + dashed line) (current resistance on *D time-frame TVC:DXY will be facing is 200EMA on orange) Worth mentioning is that TVC:DXY seems to been having create a big ranging zone between 100.8 to 105.9 (upcoming idea will be clearer on this range) Untile the next one TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before participating on any trading activity based soly upon this idea
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUS: Debt ceiling talks, retail sales and jobless claims Despite inflation concerns easing somewhat last week, at least for the near term, markets still remain in a risk-off as debt ceiling talks linger. President Biden is expected to continue debt-ceiling talks with Congress leaders on Tuesday after last Friday’s meeting was postponed. The market is increasingly getting worried about a US default, and bond volatility and a switch to safe-haven assets will likely continue as talks linger and the X-date of June 1 doesn’t see a clear delay. Spending cuts could also bring pressure on sectors like defense that are heavily dependent on government spending. The other battle that the market continues to fight is to justify the current aggressive rate-cut pricing for this year, which remains at odds with economic data. The Michigan survey on Friday hinted at inflation becoming embedded in the long term, and the focus will shift to the growth side of the story this week. Tuesday’s retail sales print will be a test of the strength of the US consumer, while industrial production will be on watch to see if they confirm the uptick seen in PMIs. Headline retail sales are seen rising 0.8% M/M in April, offsetting some of the 0.6% M/M decline in March, core (ex-auto and gas) retail sales are seen up 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.3%), while the Control Group is expected to be up by 0.3% M/M, after -0.3% in March. Thursday’s jobless claims will also be key to watch after last week’s higher-than-expected print has sparked concerns of a cooling in the labor market. If the trend extends further, we could see a material shift in next month’s non-farm payroll expectations due on June 2.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
DXY short to mid-term analysis (Update)This post is an update to my original post few weeks ago where I presented the case for DXY bottoming out. Following is the link to that, please go through it to understand the context. On Thursday DXY closed above 34( Red )EMA, on the daily, as mentioned in previous post, it a sign of strength and possible breakout, and we did breakout the following day and closed much higher. I expect this breakout to hold, and the rally should continue for a while. We can come down and flirt with 13( Green ) and 21( Blue ) EMA's again, this happens until 13 and 21 EMA's start moving up and crosses above 34 EMA, when that happens and sustains for few days, that's the confirmation of bull run and that's the most likely scenario. Fundamentally also, we have reasons for Dollar gaining strength in short to midterm, mostly because of Hawkish Fed and no intention of stopping rate hikes in the coming months, with each upcoming rate hike DXY should keep pushing higher. We also have indications of a stronger than originally expected US economy and decreasing unemployment as contributing factors adding to DXY's strength. Now talking about targets, The Boxes in my chart are very strong S/R zones going back months and years. So, the next zone of mid-size resistance for DXY is 103 price level, where I expect some retrace, then the big one is 104 which may cause a pause in the rally and some consolidation for big retrace. If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by zakoraio
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAn extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in Q4-2023. We forecast the trade-weighted dollar to soften 3% over the balance of 2023, and by a further 5% in 2024.
Long
by thunderpips
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAn extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in Q4-2023. We forecast the trade-weighted dollar to soften 3% over the balance of 2023, and by a further 5% in 2024.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
1
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAn extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in Q4-2023. We forecast the trade-weighted dollar to soften 3% over the balance of 2023, and by a further 5% in 2024.
Long
by thunderpips
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAn extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in Q4-2023. We forecast the trade-weighted dollar to soften 3% over the balance of 2023, and by a further 5% in 2024.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
DXY: BRICS Creating New Reserve CurrencyHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. For the past eight decades, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency following the Second World War. It has been widely accepted worldwide, with only a few exceptions, and is commonly recognized by the image of Andrew Jackson and the seal of the U.S. Treasury, making it the most recognizable export of the United States. The U.S. dollar became the reserve currency of the world following the Second World War, mainly because the United States was the dominant global economic and military power at the time. The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 also played a crucial role in establishing the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Under this agreement, other countries agreed to peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the U.S. dollar a stable and reliable currency for international transactions, leading to its widespread acceptance as a reserve currency. Additionally, the U.S. had a large trade surplus, making it easier for other countries to hold dollars as reserves to pay for U.S. goods and services. The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency has been a source of both admiration and resentment among other countries and superpowers. Many countries have benefited from the stability and liquidity that the U.S. dollar provides as a reserve currency, allowing them to conduct international trade and investments with greater ease. However, some countries have also experienced the negative effects of dollar dominance, such as the risk of currency fluctuations and the potential for U.S. monetary policy decisions to have spillover effects on their own economies. The U.S. dollar was not only commonly used in international transactions but also widely held as a long-term store of value across the globe. Central banks worldwide held more U.S. dollars than any other currency. This resulted in low borrowing costs for Americans , which allowed middle-class people to buy homes. Furthermore, the U.S. government was able to incur significant debts without apparent consequences due to the dollar's global dominance. Americans may not have been aware of this situation, but it had a favorable impact on their daily lives. Occasionally, the Congress discussed the debt ceiling, but it seemed like an abstract topic that most people did not care about since America controlled the global reserve currency and could print U.S. dollars. This privilege made money cheap, and Americans enjoyed benefits that were not available to other countries. However, the thought of losing this dominance was too terrible to contemplate, and concerns began to arise around the time the Russian military entered Ukraine about a year ago. The consequences of such a loss would be dire, and it was a worrisome issue. The Russian military's invasion of Ukraine was destabilizing, as wars typically are. However, it was the West's reaction to the invasion that raised concerns. U.S. policymakers, led by USA President Joe Biden and supported by Republican senators, seemed intent on not only toppling the Russian government but also disrupting the post-World War II economic order that had benefitted the U.S. for decades. The sanctions weren't expected to harm the U.S. economy more than the Russian economy. Russia's economy is not heavily reliant on financial services but on natural resources such as oil, gas, iron, and coal . Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, its Ruble remains stable against the US dollar, which suggests that the sanctions did not have a significant long-term impact on Russia's economy. The seizure of Russia's central bank's dollar reserves was intended to collapse Russia's credit system and cause bank runs, but it didn't happen. The USA did not consider the dangers when using the dollar, the sign of security and unity, as a weapon. The result of this is unsurprising, many countries lost confidence in the dollar. And so, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, France, China, and Saudi Arabia are conducting business in currencies other than the US dollar, such as the Chinese currency Yuan. This is happening at a fast pace and shutting out the US dollar, which is losing trust from other countries due to its use as a weapon and excessive printing, leading to inflation and currency devaluation. 💭Final Thoughts 💭 We look to history to speculate on the future. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. During the First World War, the German government borrowed heavily to finance the war effort, resulting in a significant increase in national debt. The government continued to print money to pay for its expenses, which led to hyperinflation and a collapse of the German economy in the early 1920s. In 1923, the German mark was practically worthless, and people had to carry wheelbarrows of money to buy basic goods. This hyperinflation had a devastating effect on the German people, wiping out their savings and pensions and causing widespread poverty and social unrest. The situation stabilized when the German government introduced a new currency, the Rentenmark, backed by mortgages on agricultural and industrial land which restored some degree of confidence in the currency. The German government basically inflated their currency due to excessive debt accumulated from war. The United States has a similar history with wars, relying on the reserve currency status to recover from the economic damage of these wars. However, considering the large economical impact of Russia and BRICS's contribution the the economy, it could be catastrophic due to the current state of the US economy. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are exploring the possibility of creating a new reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar-dominated international financial system. The proposal was discussed at a virtual meeting of the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors, with a goal to decrease the dependency on the US dollar and increase trade between member countries. However, no specific details were provided yet about the potential reserve currency. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
TVC:DXYShort
by CryptoCheck-
53
Better action on the EUR/USD todayOANDA:EURUSD Much better this morning No fancy terms, no fancy commentary, NO fortune telling here from me. I don't pretend to know how the market makers play everyday, no one can, as we are mostly just home gamers sitting home trying to pay our bills. AND NO, no one know how the banks trade, if they knew, why are they posting to us home gamers? I just use some cool tools to help me get some scalps here and there, that is it. Trade well. Now to enjoy my day.
Short
by makerup