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Dollar Index Chart Analysis.... In this situation, DXY chart creates Elliott wave pattern. So,if 103.600 resistance level need to sell confirmation then DXY will fall 102.700 & 102.200 support level. If the breakout is 103.800 level then case is invalid. AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals. If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad.
TVC:DXYShort
by AronnoFx
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISEconomists at Barclays Bank suggest a complex forecast for the US dollar, considering factors like the potential resolution of the US debt ceiling issue, unexpected softening of Chinese data, and the strength in recent US data. US Dollar Rally and Exchange Rate Forecast Barclay's analysts note the recent rally of the US dollar amid potential resolution of the country's debt ceiling situation, leading to rising equities and yields. "The dollar rallied amid headlines of a potential resolution in the debt ceiling situation, with equities and yields rising in tandem," says Themistoklis Fiotakis, Head of FX Research at Barclays. However, he indicates uncertainty about the future of this rally, stating that, "Whether the dollar rally extends from here depends on the texture of an agreement. Republicans want big spending cuts and larger-than-projected concessions could imply lower yield support for the USD down the road." Fiotakis further discusses the potential impact of the debt ceiling negotiations on the US dollar, explaining that an impasse could lead to market unease as the deadline for a resolution approaches. He observes, "The closer we get to the x-date with no signs of a resolution, market jitters might propel both sides towards a short-term extension or a kicking the can down the road scenario." On a different note, he also refers to the possibility of the dollar rally offering an opportunity for entering into short positions, suggesting, "The dollar rally could ultimately offer an entry point into short positions. The strength in recent data (jobless claims most recently) may mean that waiting until a potential Fed hike in June is nearly fully priced." Chinese Data and USD Outlook The Barclays analyst shifts the conversation to an unexpected element affecting the dollar's outlook: the softening of Chinese data. He explains how this reversal affects one of the pillars that was supporting the dollar sell-off. "The main worry is that more data weakness may be required before Chinese authorities ease policies again," says Fiotakis. "Specifically, the conspicuous and unexpected deceleration in Chinese data has reversed one of the three big pillars of the dollar sell-off along with natural gas and peak Fed)", he adds. The analyst also touches on the potential room for further upside in EURONEXT:CNY and the volatility in EM FX. He states, "For CNY there is some, albeit limited, room for further material upside in $CNY. Where things can remain a bit more volatile is high carry EM FX, where positioning is quite elevated."
Long
by thunderpips
4
Gold and the Dollar IndexGold and the Dollar Index have been mirror images of each other over the last year and a half or so. Near perfect negative correlation, with no signs of divergence from this. I'm expecting this will remain true for some time, creating an educated assumption that we can expect a near equal and opposite reaction from each other, and both are at major decision points: Gold is facing strong resistance to moving towards a new ATH and hasn't yet reacted. DXY is also facing resistance towards a stronger move up. One of these will do it, the other will likely not. For more context, confluence, and further details - follow my links below under the "Related Ideas" section.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by dudebruhwhoa
Bitcoin's Negative Correlation with DXY - Part IIHere's a longer-term look at Bitcoin's negative correlation with the US Dollar Index, in looking at an overlay of the monthly DXY on top of Bitcoin. CC also displays significant negative correlation, and during the brief periods where it has been positively correlated, that correlation has been insignificant. At least this has been true over the last two major bull runs/corrections and halving cycles. The two also look like a mirror image of each other, and as mentioned in previous posts - this makes sense. If the dollar is strong, we should expect Bitcoin to weaken, and vice versa. My previous post about this, here: The same is true for Gold vs. DXY, as shown below, and for stock markets as well, most of which have been positively correlated with Bitcoin, especially more recently since the 2020 March black swan event. Here are a couple different looks at this: From the perspective of DXY and its correlation with Bitcoin, Gold, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq. And then a look at Gold vs. DXY: Should DXY move up here, the Bitcoin market and other markets mentioned above may be in for much further and deeper correction. Conversely, should it move down, we could see extended recoveries or even new ATHs as shown in the diagram above. Either way, we should be aware of DXY's movements: Long-term DXY looks incredibly bullish, with breakout, after re-test, after breakout, after re-test: Meanwhile Bitcoin could go in either direction as well, and I would imagine it will go in the opposite direction of DXY here, long term. It could first reach 38k to create a new high following DXY's more recent low, and then head back down towards the lower target at 13k should DXY continue up: Long-term if DXY moves up beyond 112-114 -> 118-120ish, expect blood in the markets.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by dudebruhwhoa
1
DXY falls moreFED powell has been made a serious impact to the dollar index which was overbought because of the huge supply to the DXY.BUT dxy has not touched the valid area to sell .so we could see a simple upside move ment then it falls down .. By the way DXy has been retraced about 38.2 in fibo levels and also the market had closed when it was retracing so that could be higher probability to come upside and hit tha valid zone move done Overall trend may down f it breaks the trend line. GOOD AND DOLLAR LUCK
TVC:DXYShort
by rasindu2003
DXY rising puts pressure on commodities DXY on the daily chart hit a pivot top in early March and then 9 trading days ago a pivot bottom and reversal. While trending down, a weakening dollar in general supports rising commodity prices. The converse is likewise applicable. This week with increasing strength of the dollar, upward price action of commodities may be challenged. The predictive algo ( Echo indicator by Luxalgo ) predicts the dollar strength rise will continue in the immediate term future. The zero-lag MACD with its k/D lines rising and parallel is further confirmation. I conclude that positive price action in oil, metals and agricultural commodities may face dollar strength resistance while forex pairs containing the dollar may move in the dollar's direction, absent conflicting or confounding factors otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
DXY Will keep rising until it tests the 1D MA200.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has found itself rebounding, many months after the huge sell signal we gave last September (chart below): The price rebound on the 100.790 Support that was first formed on the February 02 Low and is now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI symmetry with the February rise, hints that the price may rise as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That is above the Lower Highs trend-line and below the 105.885 Resistance but is projected to make or almost make direct contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is an excellent medium-term target, we are aiming at 105.000 to lower the risk. Note that the 1D MA200 has been intact since December 07 2022, so a rejection near it will be a strong sell opportunity. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
2
DXY (US Dollar Index)Technical analysis of DXY can help us to guess how other assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and other major Forex pairs might behave. Here in the DXY weekly chart, we can see the big picture; how the US dollar has moved before and that DXY is moving in an ascending channel. Currently, it seems DXY is moving upward. As a result, sell pressure on other assets such as Gold and Bitcoin has caused a downtrend move. However, this sell pressure won't be permanent as US economic data including inflation and unemployment rates indicate that DXY will not create a new high, most likely. Let's see what happens.
TVC:DXY
by SaeedSalehinia
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUS Dollar Outlook: Federal Reserve will Resist Rate Cuts While Danske Bank agrees with the market assessment of the June Federal Reserve policy decision with rates on hold, it does not consider that later-year pricing is correct. The bank considers that the Fed will need to be more hawkish to maintain downward pressure on inflation. Danske also considers that the US economy will relatively resilient, especially in global terms. It adds; “In line with market expectations, we think the Fed has delivered its last rate hike for this hiking cycle. However, we think the current 65bp of rate cuts priced for the rest of the year is too aggressive.” It expects that the hawkish Fed stance will underpin the dollar.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
DOLLAR INDEX Upward continuation . DXY💲Hello my friend, Everything is marked on the chart like always. The uptrend seems to continue to the next resistance level. We can consider it and entering safe in the Gold , Euro , Pound and etc. Good luck. If its useful please like it as a support and follow me to next analysis :) Salam doostan aziz, hame chiz rooye chart baraye shoma moshakhas shode. be nazar miresad ke ravande so'oodi ta sathe moghavemat badi edame darad. mitoonim in ro dar nazar begirim va vorood haaye behtari dar Gold va euro va pond va ... dashte bashim. moafagh bashid. like va follow faramoosh nashe :)
TVC:DXYLong
by ArashBanakar
1
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISFX analysts at Danske Bank, UniCredit, UOB, and ING suggest that the near-term direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate is somewhat uncertain, with the potential for both downside risks and temporary upticks. Factors such as the state of the US economy, the next central bank meetings, and risk-off sentiment related to the US debt-ceiling situation are expected to play a significant role. The robustness of the US economy, tighter USD liquidity conditions, and technical indicators all suggest a possible downside risk. However, the potential for a multi-quarter or even multi-year decline of the dollar could indicate a longer-term upward trend for the EUR/USD. Nevertheless, this potential surge is not expected to be a smooth ride, with the US banking crisis and the risk of a US Treasury default posing considerable risks. Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: A Balance of Uncertainties Edoardo Campanella, Economist at UniCredit, believes that the financial market is currently in a state of flux due to mixed economic data, especially from the US. This, in turn, affects the FX market, leading to a lack of clarity on the future direction of EUR/USD. "Seesawing remains the theme in the FX market, primarily because the next central bank meetings are quite far away," says Edoardo Campanella. He adds, "EUR-USD remains above 1.08 but a sustained rebound even above 1.09 looks quite difficult currently and the picture is similar for GBP-USD after attempts to break above 1.2550 failed again." Echoing these thoughts, Mohamad Al-Saraf, Associate, FX and Rates Strategy at Danske Bank, also expresses a bearish stance on the Euro to Dollar rate. He cites the robustness of the US economy and tighter USD liquidity conditions as driving factors for a potential downturn. "While we have had a long-held bearish stance on the EUR/USD on the strategic horizon, we now also find it increasingly likely that the cross could head lower in the near-term," says Al-Saraf. Al-Saraf goes on to explain the irony of the current economic situation, "Risk-off sentiment caused by the US debt-ceiling situation could ironically also weigh on the EUR/USD in the near-term." Long-Term Forecast: A Multi-Quarter Dollar Decline? Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING, holds a long-term view that suggests a multi-quarter, if not multi-year, decline of the dollar. The strategist cites the end of the Fed tightening cycle and a potential credit crunch leading to a US recession as main drivers for this prediction. "Based on our view that the Fed tightening cycle is over and that a credit crunch makes a US recession more likely, we believe the dollar is about to embark on a multi-quarter (if not multi-year) decline," says Francesco Pesole. He further states that such a decline may be realised in the second half of 2023, emphasising a potential easing of policy by the Federal Reserve. "The bulk of that dollar decline may come in 2H23 as the US disinflation story builds and the Fed front-loads easing with 100bp of cuts in 4Q23. That could see EUR/USD at 1.20 end year," says Pesole. However, Pesole also underscores that this journey to a declining dollar will not be devoid of risks, particularly highlighting the US banking crisis and the risk of a US Treasury default as key threats. "The most pressing risks are the US banking crisis and the risk of a US Treasury default in the June/July window. Historically, stress in US money markets has triggered a temporary surge in the dollar," he adds. Despite potential turmoil, Pesole maintains that any substantial drop in the EUR/USD exchange rate would be temporary, "Any flash crash below 1.05 should be temporary."
Long
by thunderpips
2
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange analysts at Credit Agricole suggest that while uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling has been a key factor impacting the US Dollar (USD) recently, a resolution could potentially pave the way for a more sustainable recovery of the currency. The recent ambiguity associated with the US debt ceiling - which is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the US Treasury - has had a substantial negative impact on the value of the US dollar (USD). This is happening even as the US Congress, the legislative branch of the country, persistently works to avert a situation of sovereign default. A sovereign default is a failure by a government to repay its country's debts, which could cause a financial crisis. The concern is that if the debt ceiling isn't raised or suspended, the US might reach a point where it can't meet its financial obligations, which creates uncertainty in the markets and can not only cause a recession but also weaken the USD. "The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling has been a key drag on the USD in recent weeks even as attempts to avert a sovereign default continue in the US Congress," says Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole. He suggests a resolution to this issue could be reached ahead of the so-called 'x-date', the point at which the US Treasury would run out of funds to meet its financial obligations. "We believe that a resolution – in the shape and form of either a debt ceiling extension or suspension – could be reached ahead of the ‘x-date’," he adds. Regarding the X-date, economists at Barclays believe this date is estimated to be between 4-12 June (as of May 14). "We estimate the Treasury’s x-date – or the point at which it runs out of cash and extraordinary measure capacity – is between June 4-12 • As of May 12, the Treasury had $230bn in remaining borrowing capacity." Treasury Secretary Yellen noted, “...we still estimate that Treasury will likely no longer be able to satisfy all the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1." USD Performance and The Debt Ceiling: Historical Perspectives and Forecasts Marinov provides a historical analysis of the USD's performance surrounding past debt-ceiling episodes, dating back to 1993. According to the analyst, the major declines seen in the US Dollar occurred against gold, the Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Swiss Franc (CHF). In contrast, the U.S. Dollar held firm against the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Norwegian Krone (NOK). "Our results suggest that the USD losses were the most pronounced vs gold, the JPY and CHF. At the same time, the USD was broadly flat and even slightly stronger on average vs GBP, NZD, AUD, SEK and NOK," says Marinov. Historically, the US currency has gained strength following most debt ceiling resolutions. "We further conclude that the USD gained strongly across the board following most debt ceiling resolutions since 1993. In that, only gold was able to hold its ground while the NOK, SEK and GBP were the biggest underperformers on average," he adds. The Prospect of a US Recession and Its Impact on USD Drawing on the forecasts of Credit Agricole's US economist, Marinov points to the potential for a US recession in the second half of 2023. He suggests that during periods when debt ceiling issues coincide with a US recession, as was the case in 2008 and 2009, the USD has emerged as the best performing G10 currency. Marinov believes this could serve as a relevant template for the FX markets if the debt ceiling is only temporarily extended or suspended until September. "Furthermore, our US economist expects the US to slip into a recession in H223. We thus note that the USD has emerged as the best performing G10 currency when debt ceiling episodes coincided with a US recession as was the case in 2008 and 2009," says Marinov. Considering a Potential US Sovereign Downgrade Marinov recalls the single instance of a US downgrade, by S&P following the 2011 debt ceiling episode, and points out that despite the downgrade, the US Dollar exchange rates managed to near-term recoup losses following the resolution. "To date, there has been only one US downgrade – by S&P in the wake of the 2011 debt ceiling episode. The downgrade did not prevent the USD from regaining ground in the months following the resolution," says Marinov. Furthermore, he expresses the view that while a failure to resolve the debt ceiling issue, leading to a US default, remains a very unlikely outcome, it could potentially fuel extreme market volatility. Such a situation could boost the USD and US Treasury securities, given their unparalleled liquidity. "Last but not least, a potential failure to resolve the debt ceiling issue and a US default remains a very unlikely outcome in our view that could nevertheless fuel extreme market volatility and thus support the USD and USTs given their unparalleled liquidity," he adds.
Long
by thunderpips
1
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange analysts at Credit Agricole suggest that while uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling has been a key factor impacting the US Dollar (USD) recently, a resolution could potentially pave the way for a more sustainable recovery of the currency. The recent ambiguity associated with the US debt ceiling - which is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the US Treasury - has had a substantial negative impact on the value of the US dollar (USD). This is happening even as the US Congress, the legislative branch of the country, persistently works to avert a situation of sovereign default. A sovereign default is a failure by a government to repay its country's debts, which could cause a financial crisis. The concern is that if the debt ceiling isn't raised or suspended, the US might reach a point where it can't meet its financial obligations, which creates uncertainty in the markets and can not only cause a recession but also weaken the USD. "The uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling has been a key drag on the USD in recent weeks even as attempts to avert a sovereign default continue in the US Congress," says Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole. He suggests a resolution to this issue could be reached ahead of the so-called 'x-date', the point at which the US Treasury would run out of funds to meet its financial obligations. "We believe that a resolution – in the shape and form of either a debt ceiling extension or suspension – could be reached ahead of the ‘x-date’," he adds. Regarding the X-date, economists at Barclays believe this date is estimated to be between 4-12 June (as of May 14). "We estimate the Treasury’s x-date – or the point at which it runs out of cash and extraordinary measure capacity – is between June 4-12 • As of May 12, the Treasury had $230bn in remaining borrowing capacity." Treasury Secretary Yellen noted, “...we still estimate that Treasury will likely no longer be able to satisfy all the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1." USD Performance and The Debt Ceiling: Historical Perspectives and Forecasts Marinov provides a historical analysis of the USD's performance surrounding past debt-ceiling episodes, dating back to 1993. According to the analyst, the major declines seen in the US Dollar occurred against gold, the Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Swiss Franc (CHF). In contrast, the U.S. Dollar held firm against the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Norwegian Krone (NOK). "Our results suggest that the USD losses were the most pronounced vs gold, the JPY and CHF. At the same time, the USD was broadly flat and even slightly stronger on average vs GBP, NZD, AUD, SEK and NOK," says Marinov. Historically, the US currency has gained strength following most debt ceiling resolutions. "We further conclude that the USD gained strongly across the board following most debt ceiling resolutions since 1993. In that, only gold was able to hold its ground while the NOK, SEK and GBP were the biggest underperformers on average," he adds. The Prospect of a US Recession and Its Impact on USD Drawing on the forecasts of Credit Agricole's US economist, Marinov points to the potential for a US recession in the second half of 2023. He suggests that during periods when debt ceiling issues coincide with a US recession, as was the case in 2008 and 2009, the USD has emerged as the best performing G10 currency. Marinov believes this could serve as a relevant template for the FX markets if the debt ceiling is only temporarily extended or suspended until September. "Furthermore, our US economist expects the US to slip into a recession in H223. We thus note that the USD has emerged as the best performing G10 currency when debt ceiling episodes coincided with a US recession as was the case in 2008 and 2009," says Marinov. Considering a Potential US Sovereign Downgrade Marinov recalls the single instance of a US downgrade, by S&P following the 2011 debt ceiling episode, and points out that despite the downgrade, the US Dollar exchange rates managed to near-term recoup losses following the resolution. "To date, there has been only one US downgrade – by S&P in the wake of the 2011 debt ceiling episode. The downgrade did not prevent the USD from regaining ground in the months following the resolution," says Marinov. Furthermore, he expresses the view that while a failure to resolve the debt ceiling issue, leading to a US default, remains a very unlikely outcome, it could potentially fuel extreme market volatility. Such a situation could boost the USD and US Treasury securities, given their unparalleled liquidity. "Last but not least, a potential failure to resolve the debt ceiling issue and a US default remains a very unlikely outcome in our view that could nevertheless fuel extreme market volatility and thus support the USD and USTs given their unparalleled liquidity," he adds.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISDebt ceiling talks still in limbo US House Speaker McCarthy gave mixed comments on the debt ceiling talks. He said they set the stage to carry on further conversations and President Biden agreed to appoint a couple of people from the administration to negotiate directly with his team. McCarthy also said there is a lot of work to do in a short amount of time and that they are still very far apart but added it is possible to get a deal by the end of the week and it is not that difficult to reach an agreement. However, McCarthy later said he is not more optimistic about getting a deal by the end of the week. President Biden is set to return early from the G-7 meeting this coming weekend for more meetings next week. US retail sales brings no glaring concerns on consumers Headline retail sales came in beneath analyst expectations at 0.4% MoM (exp. 0.8%) but pared some of the 0.7% decline seen in March. Although the headline missed, the internals were more encouraging with ex-autos at 0.4% (exp. 0.4%, prev. -0.5%), while the ex-gas and autos rose 0.6%, above the prior -0.5% and expected 0.2%. Meanwhile, the control group, which feeds into GDP data, saw a strong reading at 0.7% MoM, above the 0.4% forecast and prior -0.4%. Discretionary categories such as clothing, electronics and sporting goods were all in the red while spending at restaurants and bars was still strong. While the report showed no signs of immediate concerns on the state of the consumer, there are some shifting consumption patterns suggesting caution in consumers as banking concerns and debt ceiling talks underpin. Meanwhile, US industrial production for April rose 0.5%, above the expected 0%, although the March data saw a revision lower to 0% from +0.4% after flatlining in February too. Fed speakers remain mixed A number of Fed speakers were on the wires on Tuesday, and many of them pushed for more rate hikes. Thomas Barkin (non-voter) said he is still not convinced that inflation is defeated and would be "comfortable" with more increases. Loretta Mester (non-voter) said she thinks rates aren't yet sufficiently restrictive. Lorie Logan (voter) was neutral and noted that a slower pace and vouched for a slower pace considering stability risks. John Williams (voter) was less hawkish, highlighting that the demand and supply in the economy is moving back into a balance as Fed hikes filter through the economy. Clearly, most voters are turning cautious while the other members on the committee still see further interest rate hikes.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
2