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Bullish Flag pattern 🏺Anticipating Eurusd Bulls to arrive sometime midweek during Powell's speeches. It's simply too difficult for me to not imagine some resurgence of bulls and Market optimism with risk-on buying back up to the 1.096 1Hr Zone Highs from the previous week. The Monthly candle has 11 days left in it and is now a solid bullish candle. I'm anticipating an upside push after a +1% Bullish weekly candle on Eurusd. It was a rather large weekly engulfing last week that was printed and the largest bullish close on said timeframe since the 2nd week of the year. As stated in the May 24th publishing and roughly 1 month ago, " Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push towards 1.14655 Weekly level. " This remains as we have 9 trading day's remaining in June 23'. It is quite possible we may just range for some time before probing more towards the weekly level 1.1024. Must plan for Bullish and Bearish scenarios. Our most recent Daily S/R Zone stands at 1.0781. It is possible we may go back and test here but like this to be the least probable. Have a great trading week following the probabilities. Also cutting your losses short and letting your profits run. Bearish Target on Week 1.08146 Bullish Target on Week 1.10
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
News Speeches Stir the pot 🕊️// Eurusd We would like to see the Daily candle close above 1.0945 as this will confirm a breakout to the upside. The candle at that point will close above the daily resistance zone created by last friday's daily candle. The idea is that we have momentum leftover from last week and will see the curretn weekly candle push deeper into the Daily/Weekly zones above. Wild trading day for me but besides that Eurusd has seen a resurgence of bullish volume that we were anticipating after last weeks Weekly candle closure. We were anticipating a continuation of momentum this week and I mentnioned in my previous Eurusd publishing that we may pullback and conolisdate early in the week as the markets sets up. The market needs time to gather liquidity before it makes significant moves. It does that by causing alot of volatility and commotion in the short term in order to get traders on tilt and stir up the pot. Moving forward I'm looking towards a retest of the extreme 1Hr Zone 1.096 and eventually an increase to the next daily resistance level 1.0982 during the next london session.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
$DXY - Bull Flag *12Hr TVC:DXY - 12Hr* Bull Flag - TVC:DXY Bull Flag post break-out still valid and in play until Price Action nullifies it. Breaking the Bull Flag (in green) and the Resistance Trendline (in red) coming from 114 Highs will confirm another Macro Higher Low in $DXY. (in play would be the macro wave C putting The Dollar Index at 96) LH confirmation would give the other Financial Markets sectors room to explode headed to the upside, stronger then we've seen so far for the year. TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
Range until Upside on Thursday 📞Eurusd did quite a nice job of Holding 4hr support zone 1.09132. We are currently in a range with the resistance at 1.094. The Daily resistance level at 1.0945 held quite well during tuesday's London session. The NY session 4hr candle on Tuesday wicked beneath 4Hr support 1.09132 -> 15-18 some odd pips but closed back inside after buyers showed up and said not today. It is not odd to see the market pullback against the trend from the previous week on Monday/Tuesday as it has done here. The Size of the current " Bearish push" has been 1/8 the size of the Bullish push from the previous week. During the upcoming sessions I can observe a retest of 1.094 4Hr Resistance zone. We have 2 upcoming red folder speeches by Fed chair Jerome Powell which will impact USD strength. Unemployment claims on Thursday and Manufacturing data on Friday to wrap up the week. Unemployment data is supposed to be about flat from the prior week which I see as favorable for a continued ascent on Eurusd Weekly timeframe. Manufacturing data on Friday is forecasted to be mixed. Thinking we can give a good push back to the highs 1.096 1Hr Zone prior to red folder news on friday. The Market Moves Major pips on thursday's. This is because early on in the week the market is setting up. It's setting up for the trend move later on in the week. The Week Matures around Wednesday and Thursday. These are the days when it is especially a good idea to " Let your winners run" .
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
💾 U.S. Dollar Index & Bitcoin/CryptocurrencyInverse correlation to Bitcoin. When this drops, Bitcoin goes up or so people say but it works at least on the short-term. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Here we have some mixed signals in the short-term, which is the same I noticed with some of the charts I shared yesterday. Short-term, very short as in the 1H, 4H and Daily timeframe, I see a potential bounce taking place but very weak. A potential for a bounce but the overall technicals are bearish. That's the mixed part, the fact that a bounce (up) can develop. Long-term, as in the Weekly and Monthly timeframes, the signals are clear. Bearish. - Last week session closed as a full red candle; third week red in a row. - This was a rejection of EMA10, EMA21 and EMA50, the weekly DXY now trades below all these levels. - The RSI is below 50 as well on the weekly timeframe. - Lower highs since September 2022. - Trading above EMA100 which is working as support. The current sideways action is sort of a distribution phase... See the chart: - Last month the DXY closed above EMA10 followed by a rejection this one, so trading back below this level. - Bearish divergence with the RSI, since March 2015. RSI lower highs: DXY higher highs: If the inverse relation to Crypto is true, this would match perfectly with the upcoming Bitcoin's bull market. Namaste.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlanSantana
2
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
3
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Euro Can Secure Capital Inflows The bank maintains a broadly constructive stance towards the Euro. It expects that the ECB rate hikes and quantitative tightening will encourage foreign inflows and domestic repatriation. Although BNP expects that energy prices will strengthen, it does not expect a return to 2021 levels. Overall, the bank expects gradual EUR/USD gains over the medium term.
Long
by thunderpips
1
Post-Interest Rates... 🏁--> Momentum Push? USD Interest rates helped to pull EURUSD back for better prices. Euro interest rates was the catalyst for a +1% increase in the EURUSD currency pair. The WeekIy candle can push a bit more to end off the week. We usually have a bunch of liquid just past extreme highs and that is what I am explaining on the chart. This is a price action concept. took buys at the beginning of the move and took my humble 14 pips. Anticipating a continuation of price to the upside with consumer sentiment tomorrow. It is expected to improve over the prior data point two weeks ago for the USD. Given the massive buy volume it is difficult for me to visualize that the current daily candle will not attempt at lease so some of push towards the next daily level 1.098 Daily Resistance Level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
DXY: Aiming at a new Low. Long term bearish trend intact.DXY is having the strongest bearish 1D candle since the May 31st rejection at the top of the long term Channel Down. The 1D time frame is deep in red technicals (RSI = 36.647, MACD = 0.090, ADX = 40.756) but the fact that the price crossed under the 1D MA50 gain, calls for more selling. Based on the previous bearish leg, we aim at a medium term correction of -4.85%, thus our target is structured TP = 99.700. Long term target is at a -6.66% (TP = 97.770) but only after a rebound, but until then our strategy will be updated with a new idea. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYShort
by InvestingScope
1
Buyers are we Stretching the Luck? 🫢- Weekly Candle is Bullish and has pushed past the previous week's high creating a nice breakout of 77 pips - The 3 Daily candles this week have been Bullish - The Previous Daily candle increased by 70 pips in total ( 31 Pip Body and 40 Pips top wick ) - The previous daily candle's top wick was larger than the body of the candle itself. - The 4hr timeframe has closed two large engulfing bear candles in the time since Interest rates - The Market has punished late buyers with Interest rates data ( I called this out check previous post) - The market has seen a change of character and this has known to be a frequent occurrence with interest rate releases. - I don't think a randomness bias is associated with this Short Idea after we have seen 3 Bullish daily candles in a row ( The evidence above ) - The Market is Beast and representation of the psychology of all of it's participants. Follow your understanding of the price behavior and execute with only good Risk/Reward Ideas.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
DXY, H4 | Reversal off pullback resistanceWe're seeing price approach a major resistance level at 12858 which is an overlap resistance + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It'a also nice to see a descending resistance line and a bearish ichimoku cloud contribute to the bearish momentum of the setup. A reversal from here could see prices drop towards the 12804 level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:USDOLLARShort
by FXCM
DXY Weekly OutlookWeekly Timeframe - DXY tapped the Weekly Fair Value Gap & 0.5 Level of the whole move. - As Per 37 Year Seasonality chart, DXY will go to tap May Highs & Weekly Liquidity Upside. Daily Timeframe : - On Daily time frame withing the Weekly FVG, we get a Daily Orderblock. - This orderblock is acting as a support and price is giving a good reaction from the orderblock. - So far Price stays above this order block, expecting the price to move towards 104.699 - 105.883 Levels. 12 HR Timeframe This chart is from the perspective of Pattern & Elliot Wave Count. - On 12 HR it's forming Wave 4 Bull flag with ABC subwaves. - Breakout from this bull flag will confirm that the price is heading for the extended 5th Wave.
TVC:DXYLong
by HexCapital
$DXY - 'ABC' Waves Completed - The Dollar Index TVC:DXY seems to have completed Wave C of its A-B-C Elliot Waves Correction, today on ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed's announcement. TVC:DXY must hold the lows of Wave C at 102.6 and 1 level of Fibb' Zone, otherwise, its macro downtrend from 114 High will be printing another Bearish Lower High This, however, would be a fantastic opportunity for The Financial Markets to explode more on their uptrend resumptions . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx