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The dollar looks bullishI really don't think the dollar is going lower here. We've largely been moving sideway for the past 6 months consolidating. You'll see on the chart that price action in January fell below key support. Then after that we rallied and tested the 200 DMA 3 times and have also retested support 3 times and haven't broken through. Now that price action is well above support, I think the next big move is up through the 200DMA. The only way the dollar is going lower is if it breaks that key support. And I think we need to see a higher dollar before that support is broken. I bought a lot of $30 UUP calls for September to express this view.
AMEX:UUPLong
by benjihyam
BluetonaFX - DXY US Dollar Fragile After FOMCHi Traders! The US dollar is showing signs of fragility after the expected 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC press conference today due to the ongoing high inflation issues in the US economy. This was reflected in the price action on the DXY 1D chart. The market hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.590 to continue the bearish impulsive wave, and the US dollar index might continue down and go back under the 100 level to target the support level at 99.578. There is further data out of the US tomorrow, and if we get further bad news from the US tomorrow, we might possibly get the break below 100. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. We appreciate your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:DXY
by BluetonaFX
dxy after federal Fund ratehi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ... One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of the year. July FOMC meeting The FOMC meets on 25-26 July and a 25-basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate is inevitable. The ‘skip’ from the last meeting foreshadowed a hike in July – and potentially another in September. Markets unanimously expect a July hike and Federal Reserve officials haven’t pushed back. Since the June FOMC meeting, and in view of favourable inflation prints and softer employment data, markets no longer anticipate a September hike. While that may prove right, they might be getting ahead of themselves. One month’s data doesn’t make a trend. Further, core inflation remains too high for the Fed and labour markets are still quite resilient. Expectations of a US recession or hard landing continue to fade – ‘soft landing’ is the buzzword of the day. More data will come in after the July FOMC meeting and data dependence will shape the September decision. Perhaps the Jackson Hole symposium in August will shed some light on Fed thinking. The key challenge for the July meeting will be communications. Regardless of the September outlook, the Fed has won its months-long struggle, convincing markets that, at least for now, the FOMC is on hold for the rest of 2023. The July meeting should be wary of any statements that might imperil this victory. Foreign exchange outlook Predicting exchange rates is a fool’s errand. With that disclaimer, what is the dollar’s outlook for the remainder of the year? The dollar is off its peak from last autumn, but it remains strong (Figure 1). The dollar’s upside may be limited as the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Improving inflation may inject a downward bias to note and bond yields. However, the downside may also be limited given anticipation that the FFR, after peaking, will be on hold for the rest of 2023 and services price will be sticky. Figure 1. Dollar remains strong despite falling from peak Source: Federal Reserve; through June 2023 A soft landing scenario would comport with muted dollar sentiment and modest volatility, unlike a sharp risk-off or risk-on environment. Decent dollar selling could emerge when markets perceive with certainty the Fed will start embarking on rate cuts, but that isn’t priced in at this juncture until early next year. The base case faces two-sided risks. If US inflation comes down more sharply than anticipated, major financial instability emerges or the economy sharply stagnates, the Fed could begin cutting rates earlier than expected, yields could fall and the dollar tumble. On the upside, more inflation persistence or greater than expected vigour in the US economy could sustain demand, as could a heightening in geopolitical risks. Of course, the dollar will also be impacted by what is happening abroad. Markets are discounting two more European Central Bank hikes this year – though there is increased debate about a September hike. The euro area economy has already stagnated and the outlook is for continued weakness. Absent further inflationary impulse, this weakness will curb the ECB’s hiking appetite and limit euro appreciation. The Japanese yen’s course will be sensitive to finance ministry concerns about yen weakness and yield curve control policy expectations. Further yen weakness will be limited by market concerns over official jawboning or intervention. Meanwhile, markets expected a quick abandonment of YCC after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down earlier this year, but his successor Kazuo Ueda has taken a cautious approach. However, YCC adjustment seems more a question of when than if. Altering YCC could significantly boost the yen. There may be modest renminbi upside against the dollar. It’s a managed currency, and opaquely so. It has depreciated against the dollar by some 4% this year, mainly reflecting divergent monetary policy stances in the US and China. Capital inflow to China has sharply ebbed over the last year. The authorities are resisting depreciation, though not through formal People’s Bank of China intervention, and increasingly signalling stronger aversion to renminbi weakness. . The Chinese growth surge expected after reopening has fallen short of expectations given strong headwinds. The PBoC has only run slightly more accommodative policies and the fiscal authorities have so far eschewed significant stimulus given the economy’s high indebtedness. The renminbi will remain soft overall, unless authorities embark unexpectedly on stepped up fiscal stimulus – a topic increasingly debated. With the UK facing continued inflation challenges, the Bank of England may need to stick with relatively high rates, undergirding sterling. One quarter of the dollar’s trade-weighted basket consists of the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Mexico moved preemptively to raise interest rates ahead of the Fed, hiking by nearly six percentage points since early 2022, and Banco de México is holding rates high, given elevated inflation. The peso took off this year, rising by 16%. Further upside is limited. The Canadian dollar through ups and downs has been fairly flat this year. The picture facing emerging market currencies varies. But good performers that raised policy rates preemptively relative to the Fed, such as Brazil, have experienced good capital inflows this year. Putting it all together, the dollar may trade narrowly with a softening bias for the rest of 2023. Next year may prove more interesting. Mark Sobel is US Chair of OMFIF. source passage : Federal Reserve
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
DXY dollar strength index DailyLooking at the DXY from a higher time frame perspective we can see a solid rejection off of the 99.6 level which dates back to Feb'20, May'20 and May'22, which is the reason for a solid rejection here. As we move back into the 101-102 range we're seeing a lot of chop and indecision in the past. As always, a messy range can be bypassed by strong volume, which is what we can expect from high imapct news events when looking at what news events are on the horizon.
TVC:DXY
by FriesianFX
DOLLAR / DXY - Day-Trading Market Idea Price Action - Smart Money Concepts - Institutional Trading.. My Trading Analysis 4H: Price has not created new high, possible retracement to see IF price will continue uptrend at previous Higher Low or Break Structure. 1H: Price FAILED to create new high as well. We see a BOS on the line chart... indicating a possible reversal / retracement. 15M: (Entry Confirmation): Would like to see price Break structure here while taking out the lows and continue down to next POI. Will go over this on stream today.
TVC:DXYShort
by kevhernandez9
USD Index IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
TVC:DXYLong
by ShahedZare
4
Dollar General to close it's gap?Dollar General - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 173.33 (stop at 167.33) We are trading at oversold extremes. In our opinion this stock is undervalued. We have a Gap open at 01/06/2023 from 201 to 179. The bias is to break to the upside. 173.09 has been pivotal. A break of the recent high at 173.09 should result in a further move higher. Our profit targets will be 188.33 and 191.33 Resistance: 173.09 / 179.20 / 200.00 Support: 166.00 / 161.00 / 155.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
NYSE:DGLong
by VantageMarkets
Will US Dollar fall to 2021 lows? The US dollar has recently fallen below its Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 100, an essential technical indicator for many traders. Based on this recent movement, there is a growing concern among experts that the US dollar could potentially drop to its 2021 lows. This noteworthy development requires careful consideration, particularly for those relying heavily on the US dollar in their trading strategies. Considering the US dollar's potential downward trajectory, I encourage you to explore the possibility of diversifying your currency holdings. Holding other foreign currencies could prove beneficial, as they may not be as susceptible to the impending drop in the US dollar's value. It is essential to approach this situation cautiously and conduct thorough research before making decisions. Analyze the trends, consult with fellow traders, and seek advice from trusted sources to ensure you are well informed about the potential risks and rewards. In light of these circumstances, I urge you to consider the following call to action: 1. Evaluate your current currency portfolio: Assess how much your trading strategy relies on the US dollar and consider diversifying your holdings to include other foreign currencies. 2. Stay updated on market trends: Regularly monitor the market and closely monitor the US dollar's performance. This will enable you to make informed decisions and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. 3. Seek expert advice: Consult with experienced traders or financial advisors specializing in forex trading. Their insights and recommendations can provide valuable guidance during uncertain times. Remember, the purpose of this email is not to instill panic but to bring your attention to a potential market development that could impact your trading decisions. By remaining cautious and proactive, you can better navigate the volatile currency market and potentially mitigate potential losses.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Bullish Pattern for DXYDXY ranging in a bullish flag pattern. DXY will enter to bull cycle if it moves to upper levels. DXY needs to close 50MA in daily line and it should be established above 50, 200 MA. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by rukshan2102