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Bearish on DXYThis week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone. Let's see what happens . . . If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.
TVC:US10YShort
by SamanFx0
Dollar Loses Shine as US Economy Shows Signs of CoolingThe tide may be turning for the US dollar. After a period of strength, investors are growing less optimistic about the greenback as recent economic data suggests a slowdown in the US economy. This shift in sentiment is reflected in positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which shows a net short position on the dollar for the first time in six weeks. Signs of a Cooling US Economy Several factors are contributing to the cooling sentiment on the dollar. Recent economic reports have indicated a potential slowdown in the US. Growth may be decelerating after a strong 2023, with factors like inflation and rising interest rates potentially impacting consumer spending and business investment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. While these hikes are intended to curb inflation, they can also have a dampening effect on economic activity. Businesses may be hesitant to borrow and invest, and consumers may tighten their belts as borrowing costs rise. CFTC Data Reveals Shift in Investor Positioning The CFTC data provides valuable insights into investor sentiment on the foreign exchange market. The data tracks the net long or short positions held by leveraged funds, which include hedge funds and other large speculators, and asset managers. According to the latest CFTC data, leveraged funds still held some net long positions on the dollar last week. However, this bullishness was outweighed by a significant increase in net short positions held by asset managers. This shift in positioning resulted in a combined net short position of $5.36 billion as of May 21st, compared to a net long position of $2.02 billion just a week earlier. Market Implications of the Dollar's Decline A weaker dollar can have several implications for the global economy. It can make US exports more competitive, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers. Conversely, imports into the US become more expensive. This can potentially lead to higher inflation in the US as the cost of imported goods increases. A weaker dollar can also impact other currencies. If investors lose confidence in the US economy, they may seek refuge in other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc. This could lead to a strengthening of these currencies relative to the dollar. The Road Ahead: Volatility and Data Dependence Analysts expect currency positioning to remain volatile in the near term. The direction of the dollar will likely hinge on incoming US economic data. Strong economic data could reignite bullish sentiment on the dollar, while further signs of a slowdown could exacerbate the recent decline. The FOMC's monetary policy decisions will also be closely watched. If the Fed signals a more aggressive pace of rate hikes to combat inflation, the dollar could find support. However, if the Fed slows down the pace of hikes or even starts cutting rates in the future, as some analysts predict, the dollar could weaken further. Conclusion The recent decline in bullish sentiment on the dollar reflects growing concerns about the health of the US economy. The CFTC data highlights a shift in investor positioning, with a net short position emerging for the first time in six weeks. The future direction of the dollar remains uncertain and will depend on the trajectory of the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
DXY Index is Ready to Pump by 🌄Morning Candlestick Pattern🌄🏃‍♂️DXY Index is moving near the 🟢 Support zone($104.27-$103.90) 🟢, and 200_SMA(Daily) and 100_SMA(Daily) , and the lower line of the ascending channel . 💡Also, the Morning Candlestick Pattern is clearly visible. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY Index has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) in the support zone . 🔔I expect the DXY Index to rise to at least the Resistance line . U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
5
Dollar Index Triangle Formation 22.05.2024Triangle formation is now apparent for the dollar index (H1 Timeframe). A breakout to the upside might trigger an upward movement towards the 105. A breakout to the downside might trigger an downward movement towards the 104.4 or even at 104.10. Fundamentals: Possible high interest rate differential in the future that could cause the dollar to gain strength now. _________________________________________________________________________________ Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350)
TVC:DXYLong
by Stuart_Cowell
Shorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker DollarShorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker Dollar, But Beware the Dragons The DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies. With rising global tensions and a potential shift in global power dynamics, the question lingers: is it time to short the DXY, betting on a weakening dollar? Let's explore the arguments for and against this strategy. The Case for Shorting DXY: A Multi-Pronged Approach • America's Shrinking Lead: The US, while still a dominant economic force, faces challenges. Its manufacturing base has shrunk, its national debt is ballooning, and infrastructure crumbles. These factors could erode confidence in the dollar's long-term stability. • The Rise of the Rest: China's economic power is undeniable. The yuan's internationalization efforts are gaining traction, potentially chipping away at the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Other economies like the Eurozone are also maturing, offering alternatives. • A Concerted Effort: Imagine a scenario where the US's major allies, concerned about American dominance, decide to weaken the dollar. This could involve measures like central banks diversifying reserves away from the US or pegging their currencies to a basket that excludes the dollar. While a hypothetical scenario, it can't be entirely dismissed. China: The Dragon in the Room China's displeasure with a weakening dollar is a significant risk factor. A weaker dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive, hindering their economic growth. China holds a significant amount of US Treasuries, and a devalued dollar would erode the value of those holdings. This could lead to China dumping US Treasuries, further weakening the dollar in a vicious cycle. Beyond China: Other Considerations • US Response: The US Federal Reserve has tools at its disposal to counter a weakening dollar. Raising interest rates, for instance, could entice investors back to the dollar for higher yields. • Global Instability: A devalued dollar could create global economic turmoil as countries scramble to adjust exchange rates and inflation spikes. This could be particularly damaging for developing economies. • Unpredictable Markets: Shorting any asset is inherently risky, and the currency market is especially volatile. Unforeseen events can drastically alter currency valuations. So, Should You Short DXY? The decision to short DXY depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Here's a breakdown: • For Aggressive Investors: If you believe in a long-term decline of the US dollar and have a high tolerance for risk, shorting DXY could be a potential strategy. However, careful risk management is crucial. • For Cautious Investors: The potential consequences of a weakening dollar, particularly China's reaction, are significant. It might be wiser to stick with less volatile investments or consider options strategies that limit your downside risk. Alternative Strategies Instead of shorting DXY directly, consider these alternatives: • Invest in a Diversified Currency Basket: Spread your risk by investing in a basket of major currencies, potentially benefiting from a weakening dollar while mitigating some of the risk. • Look to Emerging Markets: If you believe in the rise of other economic powers, consider investing in their currencies or stocks poised to benefit from a weaker dollar. The Final Bite The future of the US dollar is uncertain. A combination of factors could lead to its decline. However, the potential consequences, particularly China's response, are significant risks to consider. Carefully weigh the arguments before taking a short position on DXY. Remember, diversification and a measured approach are key in navigating the ever-fluctuating currency markets.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
DXY Index is Ready to Fill GAP🚀🏃‍♂️The DXY index is moving in the Ascending Channel and seems to have broken the 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($105.88-$104.65) 🔴, and is currently moving in a small Descending Channel and making a pullback to this zone. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY index has succeeded in completing the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) inside the descending channel . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 🔔I expect the DXY index to Gp UP to at least the 🔵 GAP($106.613-$106.504) 🔵after breaking the upper line of the descending channel . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If the DXY index can break the lower line of the descending channel, we can expect the DXY index to drop more. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
1
DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) Shorts from 107.000My view on the dollar is relevant to all major pairs I trade, including GOLD, GBPUSD (GU), and EURUSD (EU). This week, we are approaching a strong high point with a previous Wyckoff distribution on a higher timeframe, now entering a significant supply level on the 9-hour chart. I anticipate a reaction at this level followed by a temporary decline in the dollar. I expect the dollar to drop at least to the newly established 12-hour demand zone, where I foresee a bullish continuation. This supports the broader bullish trajectory of the dollar, aiming towards tapping into a 2-month supply zone where a major bearish reaction is expected. Therefore, if I anticipate the dollar to initially rise and then drop, I also expect EURUSD and GBPUSD to continue their downward trends accordingly. Note that this is my current bias, and I will adjust it based on evolving market trends. It's essential to consider various zones and scenarios for a comprehensive analysis." This version maintains your original message while improving clarity and readability. Feel free to adjust it further based on your preferences!
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
Betting on a Stronger Dollar Greenback Gets ExpensiveThe US dollar is soaring, and investors are scrambling to jump on the bandwagon. This surge in demand is reflected in the options market, where the cost of betting on further dollar appreciation has reached its highest point since November 2023. This trend highlights the growing confidence in the US economy's resilience, prompting a flight to safety in the greenback. Several factors are fueling the dollar's current strength. Firstly, the US economy continues to demonstrate surprising resilience in the face of global headwinds. Recent data, such as stronger-than-expected retail sales figures, has prompted investors to pare back bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This shift in expectations has bolstered the appeal of the dollar relative to other currencies. Secondly, the turmoil in global markets is driving investors towards safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation across the globe are creating uncertainty, pushing investors to seek the relative stability offered by the US dollar. The dollar's long-standing reputation as a reserve currency makes it a natural destination for these risk-averse investors. This surge in demand for the dollar is evident across the foreign exchange market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, has climbed to a five-month high. The dollar has already notched up impressive gains against major rivals like the yen, reaching a 34-year high, and strengthening significantly against the euro, pound, and several other currencies. This bullish sentiment towards the dollar is spilling over into the options market. Investors seeking to profit from a continued rise in the dollar's value are increasingly turning to call options. However, this increased demand comes at a cost. The premium, or the upfront cost, of buying these call options has risen significantly. This surge in option prices indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price to secure their bets on a stronger dollar. The trend in the options market presents a mixed bag for investors. On the one hand, the rising cost of call options suggests that the market is anticipating further dollar appreciation. This could be a lucrative opportunity for those who correctly predict the dollar's trajectory. On the other hand, the higher premiums eat into potential profits, making successful bets on the dollar more challenging. Looking ahead, the future path of the dollar hinges on several key factors. The trajectory of the US economy, the actions of the Federal Reserve, and the evolution of global geopolitical and economic conditions will all play a role in determining the dollar's strength. Despite the uncertainties, the current trend suggests a continued period of dollar dominance. Investors, however, should carefully consider the increased costs of betting on the dollar in the options market and ensure their strategies account for these elevated premiums. This is a dynamic situation, and close monitoring of both economic data and market movements will be crucial for navigating the ever-evolving currency landscape.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Emerging Markets Struggle as the Mighty Dollar FlexesThe recent strength of the US dollar is posing a significant challenge for emerging markets around the world. Their currencies are weakening, creating a ripple effect across their economies. This article explores the reasons behind the dollar's dominance, the impact on emerging markets, and potential policy responses. A Rising Dollar: The Driving Forces The US dollar has been on a tear in recent months, appreciating against most major currencies. This surge can be attributed to several factors, including: • US Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation are attracting investors seeking higher returns on dollar-denominated assets. This increased demand strengthens the dollar. • Global Economic Uncertainty: As concerns about a global economic slowdown grow, investors flock to the perceived safety of the US dollar, seen as a safe haven asset during times of turmoil. • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions between the US and China are further fueling risk aversion, pushing investors towards the dollar. Emerging Markets Under Pressure The rise of the US dollar presents a major headache for emerging markets. Weakening local currencies lead to several problems: • Imported Inflation: When the local currency weakens, the cost of imported goods rises. This can exacerbate inflation in emerging markets, which are already grappling with rising prices due to global supply chain disruptions. • Debt Burden: Many emerging market economies have significant dollar-denominated debt. A weaker local currency increases the cost of servicing this debt, putting a strain on government finances. • Capital Flight: The strengthening dollar can trigger capital outflows from emerging markets as investors seek better returns elsewhere. This can lead to currency depreciation and hinder economic growth. Policy Responses: Verbal Intervention and Beyond Emerging markets are not sitting idly by as their currencies weaken. Several are exploring policy options to counter the dollar's might: • Verbal Intervention: Central banks in some emerging markets, like Malaysia, have resorted to verbal intervention, signaling their commitment to supporting their currencies. However, this approach has limited long-term effectiveness. • Interest Rate Hikes: Some central banks, such as Brazil, are considering raising interest rates to attract capital inflows and stabilize their currencies. However, this risks slowing down economic growth. • Currency Intervention: Central banks may intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars and buying local currency to prop it up. This approach can be expensive and depletes foreign exchange reserves. JPMorgan and ANZ Weigh In: The Need for More Tools Financial institutions are also analyzing the situation. JPMorgan Asset Management suggests that more verbal intervention may be necessary from emerging markets to manage volatility. However, analysts at ANZ bank believe that China, a major emerging market with significant influence, may need to deploy a wider range of tools, potentially including capital controls, to limit the depreciation of its currency, the yuan. Looking Ahead: A Delicate Balancing Act The coming months will be critical for emerging markets. Central banks face a delicate balancing act, trying to tame inflation without stifling economic growth. The strength of the US dollar will be a major factor influencing their decisions. The ability of emerging markets to navigate this challenging environment will have a significant impact on the global economic outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
🚨DXY Index Is Ready to Go Down by H&S Pattern🚨🏃‍♂️ DXY index is moving near 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($105.88-$104.65) 🔴. 📈In terms of Classical Technical Analysis , the DXY index has succeeded in forming an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern and is currently completing the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders Pattern . 💡Also, the Regular Divergence (RD-) between the right and left shoulders of the H&S Pattern is clearly visible. 🔔I expect the DXY index to continue its decline after breaking the 🟢 Support zone($104.26-$103.88) 🟢 around $103 . U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYShort
by pejman_zwin
1
DOLLARINDEX REACH DAILY TARGET 103.200 Life happen for you not to you.. those who fail to plan, plan to fail.. Traders our discipline and consistency prevail again today. If you don't fail you are not even trying, don't complain about the trades you lost and the money you did not make.. A lot of people spend dollar but do not make money from it.. With detailed analysis we have prepared ourselves for success by just preparing for one bag. DXY drop from 104.000 to 103.300- .200 area. We bagged 200 pips from GOLD You have a skill that only 3% of the world population have, that why you should not quit. I will never quit.. I love trading.. Today is successful Looking forward to tomorrow. Thanks for trading with me today.
TVC:DXYShort
by stuckinprofit
DXY - 4H bullish signsBased on the chart, my bullish stance on the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is due to the clear pattern repetition visible in the price action. The Index has formed what appears to be a bullish channel pattern, showing higher lows and higher highs within a confined range. The recent break above the consolidation zone within the channel suggests a continuation of the uptrend. The repeated ability of the DXY to bounce off the lower trend line of the channel and push through the upper bounds demonstrates a strong underlying buying pressure. Historically, patterns like these can often precede further upward movements as the market respects the established trend. This technical analysis implies that the DXY has the potential to continue its upward trajectory, maintaining the trend that has been established over previous cycles within the chart. Remember to follow for more updates and insights as we keep an eye on the DXY's performance.
TVC:DXYLong
by Sober_Trading